Modelling monsoons: understanding and predicting current and future behaviour

The global monsoon system is so varied and complex that understanding and predicting its diverse behaviour remains a challenge that will occupy modellers for many years to come. Despite the difficult task ahead, an improved monsoon modelling capability has been realized through the inclusion of more detailed physics of the climate system and higher resolution in our numerical models. Perhaps the most crucial improvement to date has been the development of coupled ocean-atmosphere models. From subseasonal to interdecadal time scales, only through the inclusion of air-sea interaction can the proper phasing and teleconnections of convection be attained with respect to sea surface temperature variations. Even then, the response to slow variations in remote forcings (e.g., El Niño—Southern Oscillation) does not result in a robust solution, as there are a host of competing modes of variability that must be represented, including those that appear to be chaotic. Understanding the links between monsoons and land surface processes is not as mature as that explored regarding air-sea interactions. A land surface forcing signal appears to dominate the onset of wet season rainfall over the North American monsoon region, though the relative role of ocean versus land forcing remains a topic of investigation in all the monsoon systems. Also, improved forecasts have been made during periods in which additional sounding observations are available for data assimilation. Thus, there is untapped predictability that can only be attained through the development of a more comprehensive observing system for all monsoon regions. Additionally, improved parameterizations - for example, of convection, cloud, radiation, and boundary layer schemes as well as land surface processes - are essential to realize the full potential of monsoon predictability. A more comprehensive assessment is needed of the impact of black carbon aerosols, which may modulate that of other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Dynamical considerations require ever increased horizontal resolution (probably to 0.5 degree or higher) in order to resolve many monsoon features including, but not limited to, the Mei-Yu/Baiu sudden onset and withdrawal, low-level jet orientation and variability, and orographic forced rainfall. Under anthropogenic climate change many competing factors complicate making robust projections of monsoon changes. Absent aerosol effects, increased land-sea temperature contrast suggests strengthened monsoon circulation due to climate change. However, increased aerosol emissions will reflect more solar radiation back to space, which may temper or even reduce the strength of monsoon circulations compared to the present day. Precipitation may behave independently from the circulation under warming conditions in which an increased atmospheric moisture loading, based purely on thermodynamic considerations, could result in increased monsoon rainfall under climate change. The challenge to improve model parameterizations and include more complex processes and feedbacks pushes computing resources to their limit, thus requiring continuous upgrades of computational infrastructure to ensure progress in understanding and predicting current and future behaviour of monsoons.

Land re-use, complexity and actor-networks: a framework for research

This paper will present a conceptual framework for the examination of land redevelopment based on a complex systems/networks approach. As Alvin Toffler insightfully noted, modern scientific enquiry has become exceptionally good at splitting problems into pieces but has forgotten how to put the pieces back together. Twenty-five years after his remarks, governments and corporations faced with the requirements of sustainability are struggling to promote an ‘integrated’ or ‘holistic’ approach to tackling problems. Despite the talk, both practice and research provide few platforms that allow for ‘joined up’ thinking and action. With socio-economic phenomena, such as land redevelopment, promising prospects open up when we assume that their constituents can make up complex systems whose emergent properties are more than the sum of the parts and whose behaviour is inherently difficult to predict. A review of previous research shows that it has mainly focused on idealised, ‘mechanical’ views of property development processes that fail to recognise in full the relationships between actors, the structures created and their emergent qualities. When reality failed to live up to the expectations of these theoretical constructs then somebody had to be blamed for it: planners, developers, politicians. However, from a ‘synthetic’ point of view the agents and networks involved in property development can be seen as constituents of structures that perform complex processes. These structures interact, forming new more complex structures and networks. Redevelopment then can be conceptualised as a process of transformation: a complex system, a ‘dissipative’ structure involving developers, planners, landowners, state agencies etc., unlocks the potential of previously used sites, transforms space towards a higher order of complexity and ‘consumes’ but also ‘creates’ different forms of capital in the process. Analysis of network relations point toward the ‘dualism’ of structure and agency in these processes of system transformation and change. Insights from actor network theory can be conjoined with notions of complexity and chaos to build an understanding of the ways in which actors actively seek to shape these structures and systems, whilst at the same time are recursively shaped by them in their strategies and actions. This approach transcends the blame game and allows for inter-disciplinary inputs to be placed within a broader explanatory framework that does away with many past dichotomies. Better understanding of the interactions between actors and the emergent qualities of the networks they form can improve our comprehension of the complex socio-spatial phenomena that redevelopment comprises. The insights that this framework provides when applied in UK institutional investment into redevelopment are considered to be significant.

Social and material influences on the Kelabit dwelt environment

Relations with the environment are key to the ways in which people pursue their dwelling practices. The complex processes of globalisation challenge the isolation of rural groups, consequently affecting their perception and use of the environment. One such place where this can be seen is the Kelabit Highlands of northern Sarawak (Malaysian Borneo), where the recent arrival of commercial logging has allowed local people to make wider connections via the logging roads. Cultural and historic traditions are reconstituted in the light of new material relations with a dynamic environment, which can be seen reflected in changing customs of housebuilding.

Towards data warehousing and mining of protein unfolding simulation data

OBJECTIVES: The prediction of protein structure and the precise understanding of protein folding and unfolding processes remains one of the greatest challenges in structural biology and bioinformatics. Computer simulations based on molecular dynamics (MD) are at the forefront of the effort to gain a deeper understanding of these complex processes. Currently, these MD simulations are usually on the order of tens of nanoseconds, generate a large amount of conformational data and are computationally expensive. More and more groups run such simulations and generate a myriad of data, which raises new challenges in managing and analyzing these data. Because the vast range of proteins researchers want to study and simulate, the computational effort needed to generate data, the large data volumes involved, and the different types of analyses scientists need to perform, it is desirable to provide a public repository allowing researchers to pool and share protein unfolding data. METHODS: To adequately organize, manage, and analyze the data generated by unfolding simulation studies, we designed a data warehouse system that is embedded in a grid environment to facilitate the seamless sharing of available computer resources and thus enable many groups to share complex molecular dynamics simulations on a more regular basis. RESULTS: To gain insight into the conformational fluctuations and stability of the monomeric forms of the amyloidogenic protein transthyretin (TTR), molecular dynamics unfolding simulations of the monomer of human TTR have been conducted. Trajectory data and meta-data of the wild-type (WT) protein and the highly amyloidogenic variant L55P-TTR represent the test case for the data warehouse. CONCLUSIONS: Web and grid services, especially pre-defined data mining services that can run on or 'near' the data repository of the data warehouse, are likely to play a pivotal role in the analysis of molecular dynamics unfolding data.

Chapter 4: Simulation of reaction injection moulding

Reaction Injection Moulding is a technology that enables the rapid production of complex plastic parts directly from a mixture of two reactive materials of low viscosity. The reactants are mixed in specific quantities and injected into a mould. This process allows large complex parts to be produced without the need for high clamping pressures. This chapter explores the simulation of the complex processes involved in reaction injection moulding. The reaction processes mean that the dynamics of the material in the mould are in constant evolution and an effective model which takes full account of these changing dynamics is introduced and incorporated in to finite element procedures, which are able to provide a complete simulation of the cycle of mould filling and subsequent curing.

How to parametrize urban-canopy drag to reproduce wind-direction effects within the canopy

The mean wind direction within an urban canopy changes with height when the incoming flow is not orthogonal to obstacle faces. This wind-turning effect is induced by complex processes and its modelling in urban-canopy (UC) parametrizations is difficult. Here we focus on the analysis of the spatially-averaged flow properties over an aligned array of cubes and their variation with incoming wind direction. For this purpose, Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes simulations previously compared, for a reduced number of incident wind directions, against direct numerical simulation results are used. The drag formulation of a UCparametrization ismodified and different drag coefficients are tested in order to reproduce the wind-turning effect within the canopy for oblique wind directions. The simulations carried out for a UC parametrization in one-dimensional mode indicate that a height-dependent drag coefficient is needed to capture this effect.

Unwriting food labels: discursive challenges in the regulation of package claims

This article examines the challenges resulting from the regulation of written discourse on food packages. It uses as a case study Hong Kong’s strict new food-labeling law that requires distributers and retailers to remove certain nutritional claims from packages of imported food before they sell them. This practice of redacting unlawful text on packages requires that distributers and retailers engage in complex processes of discursive reasoning, and it some- times results in packages that are difficult for customers to interpret. The case study highlights important issues in the regulation of commercial texts concerning collaboration, intertextuality, and the conflicts that can arise when the principals, authors, and animators of such texts have different agendas.

Response of El Niño sea surface temperature variability to greenhouse warming

The destructive environmental and socio-economic impacts of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation1, 2 (ENSO) demand an improved understanding of how ENSO will change under future greenhouse warming. Robust projected changes in certain aspects of ENSO have been recently established3, 4, 5. However, there is as yet no consensus on the change in the magnitude of the associated sea surface temperature (SST) variability6, 7, 8, commonly used to represent ENSO amplitude1, 6, despite its strong effects on marine ecosystems and rainfall worldwide1, 2, 3, 4, 9. Here we show that the response of ENSO SST amplitude is time-varying, with an increasing trend in ENSO amplitude before 2040, followed by a decreasing trend thereafter. We attribute the previous lack of consensus to an expectation that the trend in ENSO amplitude over the entire twenty-first century is unidirectional, and to unrealistic model dynamics of tropical Pacific SST variability. We examine these complex processes across 22 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) database10, forced under historical and greenhouse warming conditions. The nine most realistic models identified show a strong consensus on the time-varying response and reveal that the non-unidirectional behaviour is linked to a longitudinal difference in the surface warming rate across the Indo-Pacific basin. Our results carry important implications for climate projections and climate adaptation pathways.

Petrogenesis of Early Cretaceous silicic volcanism in SE Uruguay: The role of mantle and crustal sources

Early Cretaceous (similar to 129 Ma) silicic rocks crop out in SE Uruguay between the Laguna Merin and Santa Lucia basins in the Lascano, Sierra Sao Miguel. Salamanca and Minas areas They are mostly rhyolites with minor quartz-trachytes and are nearly contemporaneous with the Parana-Etendeka igneous province and with the first stages of South Atlantic Ocean opening A strong geochemical variability (particularly evident from Rb/Nb, Nb/Y trace element ratios) and a wide range of Sr-Nd isotopic ratios ((143)Nd/(144)Nd((129)) = 0.51178-0.51209, (87)Sr/(86)Sr((129)) = 0.70840-0.72417) characterize these rocks Geochemistry allows to distiniguish two compositional groups, corresponding to the north-eastern (Lascano and Sierra Sao Miguel, emplaced on the Neo-Proterozoic southern sector of the Dom Feliciano mobile belt) and south-eastern localities (Salamanca, Minas, emplace on the much older (Archean) Nico Perez teriane or on the boundary between the Dom Feliciano and Nico Perez termites) These compositional differences between the two groups are explained by variable mantle source and crust contributions. The origin of the silicic magmas is best explained by complex processes involving assimilation and fractional crystallization and mixing of a basaltic magma with upper crustal lithologies, for Lascano and Sierra Sao Miguel rhyolites. In the Salamanea and Minas rocks genesis, a stronger contribution from lower crust is indicated.

Tecnologia de informação e colaboração interorganizacional: um estudo no varejo de grande porte no setor de confecção

A colaboração interorganizacional, é uma realidade que atinge muitas empresas, de todos os portes e setores. A TI aumenta a capacidade de gerenciamento e coordenação através de fronteiras organizacionais, permitindo redução de custos, otimização de recursos e melhor coordenação e o controle gerencial. Este projeto identificou o papel da TI nos relacionamentos colaborativos entre empresas. Para isso, analisou-se o emprego da TI no relacionamento colaborativo entre varejistas e fornecedores, no Setor de Confecção. Como resultado da pesquisa, os conceitos estabelecidos foram organizados em um modelo teórico e resumidos em um constructo sobre a colaboração interorganizacional apoiada pela TI.

Desenhando um paraíso tropical: a construção do Rio de Janeiro como um destino turístico

As primeiras imagens (gráficas ou narrativas) que circularam no exterior sobre o Rio de Janeiro. O complexo processo de produção em série da imagem, envolvendo vários profissionais que muitas vezes trabalhavam a distância. As possibilidades econômicas de uma cidade a ser construída, e o interesse de imigrantes aventureiros e empreendedores. A cidade que os primeiros guias para viajantes pretendiam mostrar. A modernização da urbe, voltada para o olhar internacional. A construção da identidade nacional pela música, dança e a indústria do entretenimento. A identificação do carioca com os estereótipos que lhe foram concedidos.A perpetuação dos ícones da cidade. Este trabalho perpassa várias categorias temáticas, buscando revelar o processo de construção da cidade do Rio de Janeiro enquanto um destino turístico. Um paraíso tropical a ser conhecido.

Predição de sombras de edifícios sobre vias urbanas com base em modelos digitais de elevações e dados de imagens aéreas de alta resolução

This research presents a methodology for prediction of building shadows cast on urban roads existing on high-resolution aerial imagery. Shadow elements can be used in the modeling of contextual information, whose use has become more and more common in image analysis complex processes. The proposed methodology consists in three sequential steps. First, the building roof contours are manually extracted from an intensity image generated by the transformation of a digital elevation model (DEM) obtained from airborne laser scanning data. In similarly, the roadside contours are extracted, now from the radiometric information of the laser scanning data. Second, the roof contour polygons are projected onto the adjacent roads by using the parallel projection straight lines, whose directions are computed from the solar ephemeris, which depends on the aerial image acquisition time. Finally, parts of shadow polygons that are free from building perspective obstructions are determined, given rise to new shadow polygons. The results obtained in the experimental evaluation of the methodology showed that the method works properly, since it allowed the prediction of shadow in high-resolution imagery with high accuracy and reliability.

Virulence Factors IN Fungi of Systemic Mycoses

Fatores de virulência em fungos de micoses sistêmicaFungos patogênicos causadores de micoses sistêmicas possuem vários fatores que permitem seu crescimento nas condições adversas oferecidas pelo hospedeiro, propiciando o estabelecimento da relação parasitária e contribuindo no processo de doença. Esses fatores são conhecidos como fatores de virulência auxiliando no desenvolvimento da infecção e interferindo com a patogênese das micoses. O presente trabalho avalia os fatores de virulência em fungos patogênicos como Blastomyces dermatitidis, Coccidioides immitis, Cryptococcus neoformans, Histoplasma capsulatum e Paracoccidioides brasiliensis, em relação à termotolerância, dimorfismo, componentes da parede celular ou cápsula, bem como a produção de enzimas. Os fatores de virulência auxiliam na aderência, colonização, disseminação e habilidade do fungo para resistir a ambientes hostis e escapar dos mecanismos da resposta imune do hospedeiro.Tanto os fatores de virulência apresentados por diferentes fungos, como os mecanismos de defesa oferecidos pelo hospedeiro requerem ação e interação de processos complexos, cujo conhecimento permitirá a melhor compreensão da patogenia das micoses sistêmicas.

Biosotption of lanthanum using Sargassum fluitans in batch system

Separation and purification of lanthanum from other rare-earth (RE) elements are highly complex processes comprising several steps of extraction using organic solvents or ion-exchange resins at high costs. In order to study the biosorption process as an alternative for conventional lanthanum recovery, this work investigated some basic aspects of lanthanum-Sargassum biomass interactions in batch equilibrium contact. The dynamics of biosorption, influence of pH, and the desorption of this RE were investigated. Maximum biosorption coefficient (q(max)) increased from 0.05 at pH 2 to 0.53 mmol g(-1) at pH 5 for lanthanum sulfate. When lanthanum chloride was used, a higher q(max) at pH 5 (0.73 mmol g(-1)) was observed as compared to the sulfate salt (q(max) = 0.53 mmol g(-1)) at the same pH. Adsorption and desorption curves pointed out a complete recovery of metal adsorbed in the Sargassum fluitans biomass, showing a reversibility of this process and indicating the potential of biosorption for lanthanum removal and recovery. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Rough turning of titanium alloy (6Al-4V)

Metal machining is the complex process due the used cutting parameters. In metal cutting process, materials of workpiece differ widely in their ability to deform plastically, to fracture and to sustain tensile stresses. Moreover, the material involved in the process has a great influence in these operations. The Ti-6Al-4V alloy is very used in the aeronautical industry, mainly in the manufacture of engines, has very important properties such the mechanical and corrosion resistance in high te mperatures. The turning of the Ti-Al-4V alloy is very difficult due the rapid tool wear. Such behavior result of the its low thermal conductivity in addition the high reactivity with the cutting tool. The formed chip is segmented and regions of the large deformation named shear bands plows formed. The machinability of the cutting process can be evaluated by several measures including power consume, machined surface quality, tool wear, tool life, microstructure and morphology of the obtained chip. This paper studies the effect of cutting parameters, speed and feed rates, in the tool wear and chip properties using uncoating cemented carbide tool. Microe-structural characterization of the chip and tool wear was performed using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and Light Optical Mcroscopy (LOM).