Método para gerenciamento de estratégias em ambiente de inovação disruptiva usando sistemas dinâmicos: o caso da implantação do cinema digital no Brasil

Uma das grandes preocupações da academia na área de Estratégia Empresarial é a evolução das teorias das inovações disruptivas versus inovações incrementais. Dentro destas discussões encaixam-se as teorias que estruturam a linha das inovações tecnológicas versus as inovações que alteram os modelos de negócios. Mais complexo é o estudo das inovações que alteram tanto as tecnologias quanto os modelos de negócios não só de algumas empresas, mas de toda uma cadeia produtiva. Esta dissertação propõe um método de antecipação das consequências que sofrerão todos os agentes de uma cadeia produtiva sob efeito de inovações disruptivas. Para lidar com a complexidade desta antevisão usamos o instrumental de sistemas dinâmicos e o pensamento sistêmico. Como estudo de caso, estamos analisamos a implantação do cinema digital no Brasil, a qual afeta toda a cadeia do áudio visual no país. No nosso referencial teórico sobre inovação utilizamos um encadeamento, não totalmente linear cronologicamente, de teorias composto pelos os conceitos de diversificação, descontinuidades tecnológicas, descontinuidades estratégicas, inovações disruptivas, modelos duais, reações organizacionais, organizações ambidestras, verticalização versus integração das cadeias produtivas e harmonização de modelos mentais. A presente dissertação discorre sobre estes fundamentos teóricos e usa o caso da implantação do Cinema Digital no Brasil como verificação empírica. A exibição digital está apresentando indícios de ser uma inovação disruptiva que altera tanto padrões tecnológicos como os modelos de negócios dos exibidores sendo, portanto, um campo adequado de verificação e extensão da teoria. Através do exame das estratégias possíveis das redes de exibidores de cinema no atual momento da digitalização no Brasil mostramos como elas podem vencer mais facilmente os desafios decorrentes do processo, aperfeiçoar os resultados econômicos e financeiros, minimizando o tempo de sua concretização e se tornarem ambidestras isto é, se prepararem para enfrentar um processo no qual muitas outras inovações ainda vão ocorrer estando, no momento, nas suas fases de gestação. A estrutura da dissertação foi construída com um maior detalhamento no início de sua parte metodológica pela utilização do instrumental sistêmico para facilitar o entendimento do projeto. Muita da literatura sobre inovações, descontinuidades e disrupções já se utilizava de uma forma de pensar sistêmica sem colocá-la sob este formato. Quando isto ocorreu de forma significativa em uma teoria importante para os nossos propósitos fizemos sua “tradução” para a simbologia sistêmica. Dentro deste objetivo, fazemos, já no capítulo 3, uma breve explanação sobre a forma de pensar em Sistemas Dinâmicos, a identificação de “loops” causais, de “delays” (atrasos) e das principais mudanças plausíveis ao longo do tempo. A seguir, no capítulo 4 fazemos uma revisão da teoria das inovações disruptivas, e no capítulo 5 mostramos como a implantação do cinema digital se encaixa nesta teoria e de como a cadeia inteira do audiovisual está sendo afetada de forma sistêmica, cuja complexidade pode ser manejada pela construção do mapa causal que relaciona as estratégias de todos os seus agentes ao longo do tempo. Este mapa causal é usado para antecipar comportamentos estratégicos dos componentes da cadeia audiovisual sob ambiente disruptivo. No capítulo 6, como contribuição teórica, propomos que esta forma de organizar a complexidade seja um processo perene a ser utilizado no mapeamento e previsão de outras mudanças em ambientes de inovações disruptivas aceleradas além de elencar recomendações estratégicas para a transformação das cadeias de exibição brasileiras em organizações ambidestras com capacidade de competir eficientemente com as cadeias internacionais que chegaram e ainda estão chegando ao país e que já são responsáveis hoje por aproximadamente 45% da receita de bilheteria de cinema no país. No capítulo 7 mostramos sugestões de aplicação do método a outras cadeias produtivas que estão no meio de processos disruptivos, as vantagens de sua adoção, limitações e aperfeiçoamentos futuros.

Controle preditivo de sistemas mistos lógicos-dinâmicos

O comportamento dinâmico de um sistema é tradicionalmente descrito por um modelo, em geral associado a um conjunto de equações diferenciais ou de equações de diferenças, onde as variáveis representam grandezas físicas. Sistemas complexos, principalmente na indústria de processos, incorporam elementos com comportamento dinâmico lógico, tais como atuadores e sensores ON-OFF (estados aberto/fechado) ou proposições lógicas (estados verdadeiro/falso). Estes sistemas são denominados “Sistemas Híbridos”, “Sistemas Mistos Lógicos-dinâmicos” ou, simplesmente, “Sistemas Mistos”. Neste trabalho, são apresentadas técnicas que, associando variáveis lógicas a estes elementos, e mediante a incorporação de restrições sobre as variáveis, permitem obter um modelo matemático do sistema misto. Neste caso, técnicas clássicas de controle não permitem a incorporação destas novas variáves e restrições. Como opção de controle de sistemas mistos, é então proposta e estudada uma técnica de controle preditivo baseado em modelo. São apresentados tanto a formulação teórica do problema de controle, quanto exemplos e simulações bem como um estudo de caso de sua aplicação sobre um sistema de equalização de uma planta de tratamento de efluentes.

Modelos dinâmicos e simulação estocástica

This paper presents new methodology for making Bayesian inference about dy~ o!s for exponential famiIy observations. The approach is simulation-based _~t> use of ~vlarkov chain Monte Carlo techniques. A yletropolis-Hastings i:U~UnLlllll 1::; combined with the Gibbs sampler in repeated use of an adjusted version of normal dynamic linear models. Different alternative schemes are derived and compared. The approach is fully Bayesian in obtaining posterior samples for state parameters and unknown hyperparameters. Illustrations to real data sets with sparse counts and missing values are presented. Extensions to accommodate for general distributions for observations and disturbances. intervention. non-linear models and rnultivariate time series are outlined.

Modelos dinâmicos não lineares e aplicações de quadratura gaussiana

We propose mo deIs to analyze animal growlh data wilh lhe aim of eslimating and predicting quanlities of Liological and economical interest such as the maturing rate and asymptotic weight. lt is also studied lhe effect of environmenlal facLors of relevant influence in the growlh processo The models considered in this paper are based on an extension and specialization of the dynamic hierarchical model (Gamerman " Migon, 1993) lo a non-Iinear growlh curve sdLillg, where some of the growth curve parameters are considered cxchangeable among lhe unils. The inferencc for thcse models are appruximale conjugale analysis Lascd on Taylor series cxpallsiulIs aliei linear Bayes procedures.

Sistema de detecção e isolamento de falhas em sistemas dinâmicos baseado em identificação paramétrica

The present research aims at contributing to the area of detection and diagnosis of failure through the proposal of a new system architecture of detection and isolation of failures (FDI, Fault Detection and Isolation). The proposed architecture presents innovations related to the way the physical values monitored are linked to the FDI system and, as a consequence, the way the failures are detected, isolated and classified. A search for mathematical tools able to satisfy the objectives of the proposed architecture has pointed at the use of the Kalman Filter and its derivatives EKF (Extended Kalman Filter) and UKF (Unscented Kalman Filter). The use of the first one is efficient when the monitored process presents a linear relation among its physical values to be monitored and its out-put. The other two are proficient in case this dynamics is no-linear. After that, a short comparative of features and abilities in the context of failure detection concludes that the UFK system is a better alternative than the EKF one to compose the architecture of the FDI system proposed in case of processes of no-linear dynamics. The results shown in the end of the research refer to the linear and no-linear industrial processes. The efficiency of the proposed architecture may be observed since it has been applied to simulated and real processes. To conclude, the contributions of this thesis are found in the end of the text

Detecção e isolamento de falhas em sistemas dinâmicos baseados em redes neurais

This master dissertation presents the development of a fault detection and isolation system based in neural network. The system is composed of two parts: an identification subsystem and a classification subsystem. Both of the subsystems use neural network techniques with multilayer perceptron training algorithm. Two approaches for identifica-tion stage were analyzed. The fault classifier uses only residue signals from the identification subsystem. To validate the proposal we have done simulation and real experiments in a level system with two water reservoirs. Several faults were generated above this plant and the proposed fault detection system presented very acceptable behavior. In the end of this work we highlight the main difficulties found in real tests that do not exist when it works only with simulation environments

Sistema híbrido para detecção e diagnóstico de falhas em sistemas dinâmicos

The industries are getting more and more rigorous, when security is in question, no matter is to avoid financial damages due to accidents and low productivity, or when it s related to the environment protection. It was thinking about great world accidents around the world involving aircrafts and industrial process (nuclear, petrochemical and so on) that we decided to invest in systems that could detect fault and diagnosis (FDD) them. The FDD systems can avoid eventual fault helping man on the maintenance and exchange of defective equipments. Nowadays, the issues that involve detection, isolation, diagnose and the controlling of tolerance fault are gathering strength in the academic and industrial environment. It is based on this fact, in this work, we discuss the importance of techniques that can assist in the development of systems for Fault Detection and Diagnosis (FDD) and propose a hybrid method for FDD in dynamic systems. We present a brief history to contextualize the techniques used in working environments. The detection of fault in the proposed system is based on state observers in conjunction with other statistical techniques. The principal idea is to use the observer himself, in addition to serving as an analytical redundancy, in allowing the creation of a residue. This residue is used in FDD. A signature database assists in the identification of system faults, which based on the signatures derived from trend analysis of the residue signal and its difference, performs the classification of the faults based purely on a decision tree. This FDD system is tested and validated in two plants: a simulated plant with coupled tanks and didactic plant with industrial instrumentation. All collected results of those tests will be discussed

Aspectos dinâmicos da água versus álcool e acetona por técnicas de congelamento

Water still represents, on its critical properties and phase transitions, a problem of current scientific interest, as a consequence of the countless open questions and of the inadequacy of the existent theoretical models, mainly related to the different solid and liquid phases that this substance possesses. For example, there are 13 known crystalline forms of water, and also amorphous phases. One of them, the amorphous ice of very high density (VHDA), was just recently observed. Other example is the anomalous behavior in the macroscopic density, which presents a maximum at the temperature of 277 K. In order to experimentally investigate the behavior of one of the liquid-solid phase transitions, the anomaly in its density and also the metastability, we used three different cooling techniques and, as comparison systems, we made use of the solvents: acetone and ethyl alcohol. The first studied cooling system employ a Peltier plate, a device recently developed, which makes use of small cubes made up of semiconductors to change heat among two surfaces; the second system is a commercial refrigerator, similar to the residential ones. Finally, the liquid nitrogen technique, which is used to refrigerate the samples in a container, in two ways: a very fast and other one, almost static. In those three systems, three Beckers of aluminum were used (with a volume of 80 ml, each), containing water, alcohol and acetone. They were closed and maintained at atmospheric pressure. Inside of each Becker were installed three thermocouples, disposed along the vertical axis of the Beckers, one close to the inferior surface, other to the medium level and the last one close the superior surface. A system of data acquisition was built via virtual instrumentation using as a central equipment a Data-Acquisition board. The temperature data were collected by the three thermocouples in the three Beckers, simultaneously, in function of freezing time. We will present the behavior of temperature versus freezing time for the three substances. The results show the characterization of the transitions of the liquid

Utilizando Pesos estáticos e dinâmicos em sistemas multi-classificadores com diferentes níveis de diversidade

Although some individual techniques of supervised Machine Learning (ML), also known as classifiers, or algorithms of classification, to supply solutions that, most of the time, are considered efficient, have experimental results gotten with the use of large sets of pattern and/or that they have a expressive amount of irrelevant data or incomplete characteristic, that show a decrease in the efficiency of the precision of these techniques. In other words, such techniques can t do an recognition of patterns of an efficient form in complex problems. With the intention to get better performance and efficiency of these ML techniques, were thought about the idea to using some types of LM algorithms work jointly, thus origin to the term Multi-Classifier System (MCS). The MCS s presents, as component, different of LM algorithms, called of base classifiers, and realized a combination of results gotten for these algorithms to reach the final result. So that the MCS has a better performance that the base classifiers, the results gotten for each base classifier must present an certain diversity, in other words, a difference between the results gotten for each classifier that compose the system. It can be said that it does not make signification to have MCS s whose base classifiers have identical answers to the sames patterns. Although the MCS s present better results that the individually systems, has always the search to improve the results gotten for this type of system. Aim at this improvement and a better consistency in the results, as well as a larger diversity of the classifiers of a MCS, comes being recently searched methodologies that present as characteristic the use of weights, or confidence values. These weights can describe the importance that certain classifier supplied when associating with each pattern to a determined class. These weights still are used, in associate with the exits of the classifiers, during the process of recognition (use) of the MCS s. Exist different ways of calculating these weights and can be divided in two categories: the static weights and the dynamic weights. The first category of weights is characterizes for not having the modification of its values during the classification process, different it occurs with the second category, where the values suffers modifications during the classification process. In this work an analysis will be made to verify if the use of the weights, statics as much as dynamics, they can increase the perfomance of the MCS s in comparison with the individually systems. Moreover, will be made an analysis in the diversity gotten for the MCS s, for this mode verify if it has some relation between the use of the weights in the MCS s with different levels of diversity

Aspectos Morfo-Dinâmicos daComplexo Lagunar Nísia Floresta-Papeba-Guaraíras, Região Costeira Sul Oriental Do RN

This dissertation presents the results of research developed in the Nísia Floresta-Papeba-Guaraíras Lagoon Complex, located on the south coast of the Rio Grande do Norte State. The main objectives of this dissertation were the stratrigraphic characterization, in detail scale, of the and the coastal dynamics study of the lagoonal deposits sedimentation, as well as the morpho-dynamic analysis of the area. Therefore, an interdisciplinary methodology was adopted, in which all sedimentological, morpho-tectonic and geomorphological data were integrated. Vibracore up to 4m in length were carried out in the lagoons. The referred lagoon complex made of a system of three lagoons that interact through two artificial channels, named Boqueirão and Surubajá. The Guaraíras lagoon, the largest one in the system, corresponds to the estuary zone of the Trairi and Jacu rivers. The sedimentary load brought by these rivers is strongly reworked by tide currents, forming an important net-work of channels and sandy bars inside this lagoon and close to its channel connection with the sea. The stratigraphic units of the area are Cenozoic in age, and are represented by sedimentary rocks of the Barreiras Formation (sandstones, mudstones and conglomerates) and by rocks beach, as well as by siliciclastics sediments related with the fluvial dynamics of tide plain (clay and sandy bars), and coast (sand dunes and beaches). Among the recognized geomorphologic aspects, there are the elements associated with continental enviroments (drainage basins of the Trairi, Baldum and Jacu rivers, coastal tableland supported by the Barreiras Formation), and transitional environments (lagoon complex, dune fields, cliffs, tidal channels and beach rocks lines). The morphotectonic analysis indicates that fauts affect Barreiras Formation sedimentary rocks, with two sets of main lineaments: SW-NE and SE-NW. The anomalies in the drainage net are directly associated with these fault/fracture system, which control and subdivede the low courses of the Trairi and Jacu rivers, at least a tail of their flowing principal courses. The Nísia Floresta, Papeba and Guaraíras lagoons present strong morphological control according to the lineament directions. Taking into account the lagoonal deposits, the sedimentological analyses reflect a sediment distribution related to the interaction of the fluvial and sea processes that act in the study area. The correlated deposits show textural mainly microclastic characteristics of shallow waters, and of currents of low to moderate energy.In general, the Nísia Floresta-Papeba-Guaraíras lagoon Complex, constitutes a very intrinsec group, that undewent important changes in historical times that are reflected in the currents clays. Inaddition to the natural processes that act in this system, we should take into account the antrohopic intervention, which have increased in the past years

Distribuição socioespacial dos fatores dinâmicos da população na Região Metropolitana de Natal

The Metropolitan Region of Natal, like other metropolitan regions in Brazil, was marked by intense and rapid urbanization of the country occurred only in the second half of the twentieth century, coinciding with the process of consolidation of the industry in the country, resulting in serious urban social problems, such as the increase in slums, lack of infrastructure and this increase in violence in urban centers. When enters the reality of the metropolitan region, assessing the impacts of restructuring productive in the context of globalization, analyzing how the socio-economic factors influencing the dynamic of the population, whose configuration was shown to be contradictory according to social class busy. Accordingly, we studied the demographic configuration of the Metropolitan Region of Natal, analyzing their spatial distribution and their socio-demographic differences in light of building a type socio-space, which cuts the metropolitan space in homogeneous areas

Modelos dinâmicos de assembléia

The structure of an ecological community is shaped by several temporally varying mechanisms. Such mechanisms depend in a large extent on species interactions, which are themselves manifestations of the community's own structure. Dynamics and structure are then mutually determined. The assembly models are mathematical or computational models which simulate the dynamics of ecological communities resulting from a historical balance among colonizations and local extinctions, by means of sequential species introductions and their interactions with resident species. They allow analyzing that double relationship between structure and dynamics, recognizing its temporal dependence. It is assumed two spatiotemporal scales: (i) a local scale, where species co-occur and have their dynamics explicitly simulated and (ii) a regional scale without dynamics, representing the external environment which the potential colonizers come from. The mathematical and computational models used to simulate the local dynamics are quite variable, being distinguished according to the complexity mode of population representation, including or not intra or interspecific differences. They determine the community state, in terms of abundances, interactions, and extinctions between two successive colonization attempts. The schedules of species introductions also follow diverse (although arbitrary) rules, which vary qualitatively with respect to species appearance mode, whether by speciation or by immigration, and quantitatively with respect to their rates of introduction into the community. Combining these criteria arises a great range of approaches for assembly models, each with its own limitations and questions, but contributing in a complementary way to elucidate the mechanisms structuring natural communities. To present such approaches, still incipient as research fields in Brazil, to describe some methods of analysis and to discuss the implications of their assumptions for the understanding of ecological patterns are the objectives of the present review.

Efectos dinámicos de la integración económica: aproximaciones analíticas

Incluye Bibliografía

Efeito agudo do aquecimento realizado através de exercícios dinâmicos e jogo de futebol em campo reduzido sobre a agilidade em crianças

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of warm up performed by dynamic exercises (DYN) and small sided soccer game (SOC) on agility with ball (AB) and agility without ball (AG). Eighteen children of both genders (n=18) performed the AB and AG tests after three conditions: without warm-up (WWU), DYN and SOC. The effects of DYN and SOC warm-ups on AG test was higher than WWU (p<0,05) and it was similar among them (WWU=12,2 ± 1,0, DYN= 11,3 ± 0,7, SOC=11,4 ± 0,6 s), as well as on AB test (WWU=15,0 ± 2,1, DYN= 14,4 ± 2,1, SOC=14,0 ± 1,6 s). Results in both tests were similar by gender, except in AB test performed with DYN warm-up, in girls. SOC is an effective warm-up protocol for agility tests with or without ball and can be used before agility motor tasks in children.