Handheld-assisted field data collection for occupational risk assessment.

A computerized handheld procedure is presented in this paper. It is intended as a database complementary tool, to enhance prospective risk analysis in the field of occupational health. The Pendragon forms software (version 3.2) has been used to implement acquisition procedures on Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs) and to transfer data to a computer in an MS-Access format. The data acquisition strategy proposed relies on the risk assessment method practiced at the Institute of Occupational Health Sciences (IST). It involves the use of a systematic hazard list and semi-quantitative risk assessment scales. A set of 7 modular forms has been developed to cover the basic need of field audits. Despite the minor drawbacks observed, the results obtained so far show that handhelds are adequate to support field risk assessment and follow-up activities. Further improvements must still be made in order to increase the tool effectiveness and field adequacy.

Bacillus thuringiensis: fermentation process and risk assessment: a short review

Several factors make the local production of Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) highly appropriate for pest control in developing nations. Bt can be cheaply produced on a wide variety of low cost, organic substrates. Local production results in considerable savings in hard currency which otherwise would be spent on importation of chemical and biological insecticides. The use of Bt in Brazil has been limited in comparison with chemical insecticides. Although Bt is imported, some Brazilian researchers have been working on its development and production. Fermentation processes (submerged and semi-solid) were applied, using by-products from agro-industries. As the semi-solid fermentation process demonstrated to be interesting for Bt endotoxins production, it could be adopted for small scale local production. Although promising results had been achieved, national products have not been registered due to the absence of a specific legislation for biological products. Effective actions are being developed in order to solve this gap. Regardless of the biocontrol agents being considered atoxic and harmless to the environment, information related to direct and indirect effects of microbials are still insufficient in many cases. The risk analysis of the use of microbial control agents is of upmost importance nowadays, and is also discussed.

Quantitative ultrasound of the heel and fracture risk assessment: an updated meta-analysis.

Meta-analysis of prospective studies shows that quantitative ultrasound of the heel using validated devices predicts risk of different types of fracture with similar performance across different devices and in elderly men and women. These predictions are independent of the risk estimates from hip DXA measures.Introduction Clinical utilisation of heel quantitative ultrasound (QUS) depends on its power to predict clinical fractures. This is particularly important in settings that have no access to DXA-derived bone density measurements. We aimed to assess the predictive power of heel QUS for fractures using a meta-analysis approach.Methods We conducted an inverse variance random effects meta-analysis of prospective studies with heel QUS measures at baseline and fracture outcomes in their follow-up. Relative risks (RR) per standard deviation (SD) of different QUS parameters (broadband ultrasound attenuation [BUA], speed of sound [SOS], stiffness index [SI], and quantitative ultrasound index [QUI]) for various fracture outcomes (hip, vertebral, any clinical, any osteoporotic and major osteoporotic fractures) were reported based on study questions.Results Twenty-one studies including 55,164 women and 13,742 men were included in the meta-analysis with a total follow-up of 279,124 person-years. All four QUS parameters were associated with risk of different fracture. For instance, RR of hip fracture for 1 SD decrease of BUA was 1.69 (95% CI 1.43-2.00), SOS was 1.96 (95% CI 1.64-2.34), SI was 2.26 (95%CI 1.71-2.99) and QUI was 1.99 (95% CI 1.49-2.67). There was marked heterogeneity among studies on hip and any clinical fractures but no evidence of publication bias amongst them. Validated devices from different manufacturers predicted fracture risks with similar performance (meta-regression p values > 0.05 for difference of devices). QUS measures predicted fracture with a similar performance in men and women. Meta-analysis of studies with QUS measures adjusted for hip BMD showed a significant and independent association with fracture risk (RR/SD for BUA = 1.34 [95%CI 1.22-1.49]).Conclusions This study confirms that heel QUS, using validated devices, predicts risk of different fracture outcomes in elderly men and women. Further research is needed for more widespread utilisation of the heel QUS in clinical settings across the world.

Evaluation of organ-specific peripheral doses after 2-dimensional, 3-dimensional and hybrid intensity modulated radiation therapy for breast cancer based on Monte Carlo and convolution/superposition algorithms: implications for secondary cancer risk assessment.

To make a comprehensive evaluation of organ-specific out-of-field doses using Monte Carlo (MC) simulations for different breast cancer irradiation techniques and to compare results with a commercial treatment planning system (TPS). Three breast radiotherapy techniques using 6MV tangential photon beams were compared: (a) 2DRT (open rectangular fields), (b) 3DCRT (conformal wedged fields), and (c) hybrid IMRT (open conformal+modulated fields). Over 35 organs were contoured in a whole-body CT scan and organ-specific dose distributions were determined with MC and the TPS. Large differences in out-of-field doses were observed between MC and TPS calculations, even for organs close to the target volume such as the heart, the lungs and the contralateral breast (up to 70% difference). MC simulations showed that a large fraction of the out-of-field dose comes from the out-of-field head scatter fluence (>40%) which is not adequately modeled by the TPS. Based on MC simulations, the 3DCRT technique using external wedges yielded significantly higher doses (up to a factor 4-5 in the pelvis) than the 2DRT and the hybrid IMRT techniques which yielded similar out-of-field doses. In sharp contrast to popular belief, the IMRT technique investigated here does not increase the out-of-field dose compared to conventional techniques and may offer the most optimal plan. The 3DCRT technique with external wedges yields the largest out-of-field doses. For accurate out-of-field dose assessment, a commercial TPS should not be used, even for organs near the target volume (contralateral breast, lungs, heart).

Molecular risk assessment of BIG 1-98 participants by expression profiling using RNA from archival tissue.

Background: The purpose of the work reported here is to test reliable molecular profiles using routinely processed formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissues from participants of the clinical trial BIG 1-98 with a median follow-up of 60 months. Methods: RNA from fresh frozen (FF) and FFPE tumor samples of 82 patients were used for quality control, and independent FFPE tissues of 342 postmenopausal participants of BIG 1-98 with ER-positive cancer were analyzed by measuring prospectively selected genes and computing scores representing the functions of the estrogen receptor (eight genes, ER_8), the progesterone receptor (five genes, PGR_5), Her2 (two genes, HER2_2), and proliferation (ten genes, PRO_10) by quantitative reverse transcription PCR (qRT-PCR) on TaqMan Low Density Arrays. Molecular scores were computed for each category and ER_8, PGR_5, HER2_2, and PRO_10 scores were combined into a RISK_25 score. Results: Pearson correlation coefficients between FF- and FFPE-derived scores were at least 0.94 and high concordance was observed between molecular scores and immunohistochemical data. The HER2_2, PGR_ 5, PRO_10 and RISK_25 scores were significant predictors of disease free-survival (DFS) in univariate Cox proportional hazard regression. PRO_10 and RISK_25 scores predicted DFS in patients with histological grade II breast cancer and in lymph node positive disease. The PRO_10 and PGR_ 5 scores were independent predictors of DFS in multivariate Cox regression models incorporating clinical risk indicators; PRO_10 outperformed Ki-67 labeling index in multivariate Cox proportional hazard analyses. Conclusions: Scores representing the endocrine responsiveness and proliferation status of breast cancers were developed from gene expression analyses based on RNA derived from FFPE tissues. The validation of the molecular scores with tumor samples of participants of the BIG 1-98 trial demonstrates that such scores can serve as independent prognostic factors to estimate disease free survival (DFS) in postmenopausal patients with estrogen receptor positive breast cancer.

Risk assessment of recurrence in sporadic retinoblastoma using a molecular-based algorithm

Le rétinoblastome (Rb) est une tumeur provenant des cellules rétiniennes progénitrices des photorécepteurs. C'est la tumeur pédiatrique maligne la plus fréquente avec une incidence par naissance évaluée entre 1/15Ό00 et 1/20Ό00. Les enfants atteints de Rb sont diagnostiqué dans leur grande majorité avant l'âge de 4 ans, soit le temps nécessaire à la différentiation et à la maturation des photorécepteurs et donc à la disparition de la cellule d'origine du Rb. La survie du patient, la sauvegarde oculaire et le pronostic visuel restent excellents pour autant que le traitement ne soit pas différé. Dans sa variante non héréditaire (60%) le Rb est toujours unilatéral et sporadique. Le Rb héréditaire de transmission dominante autosomique (40%), se décline sous toutes les formes, familiale (10%) ou sporadique (30%), que l'atteinte soit unilatérale ou bilatérale. La majorité des mutations causales sont uniques et distribuées de façon aléatoire sur la totalité du gène RB1 sans région prédisposante. La détection de ces mutations est couteuse et chronophage, tout en présentant un taux de détection relativement bas; surtout dans les cas de Rb sporadiques unilatéraux. Dans le but d'identifier les patients présentant un risque réel de développer un Rb, et de réduire le nombre d'examens sous narcose requis pour le dépistage de la maladie chez les sujets à risque, nous avons développé une stratégie sensible, rapide, efficace et peu couteuse basée sur une analyse de l'haplotype intragénique. Cet algorithme prend en compte a) la perte d'hétérozygotie intratumorale du gène RB1, b) l'origine paternelle préférentielle des nouvelles mutations germinales et c) un risque a priori dérivé des données empiriques de Vogel. Pendant la période allant de janvier 1994 à décembre 2006, nous avons comparé l'apparition de nouveau Rb parmi la fratrie et la descendance de patient atteints au nombre de nouveaux cas attendus calculé par notre algorithme. 134 familles ont été étudiées. L'analyse moléculaire a été effectuée chez 570 personnes dont 99 patients âgés de moins de 4 ans et donc à risque de développer un Rb. Parmi cette cohorte, nous avons observé l'apparition d'un cas de Rb, alors que les risques cumulés a posteriori calculé par notre algorithme prédisait l'apparition de 1.77 nouveau cas. Dans cette étude, nous avons pu valider notre algorithme prédisant la récurrence de Rb chez les parents de 1er degré de patients atteints. Cet outil devrait grandement faciliter le conseil génétique ainsi que le suivi des patients à risque de développer un Rb, surtout dans les cas ou le séquençage direct du gène RB1 n'est pas disponible ou est resté non informatif. - Purpose: Most RBI mutations are unique and distributed throughout the RBI gene. Their detection can be time-consuming and the yield especially low in cases of conservatively-treated sporadic unilateral retinoblas-toma (Rb) patients. In order to identify patients with true risk of developing Rb, and to reduce the number of unnecessary examinations under anesthesia in all other cases, we developed a universal sensitive, efficient and cost-effective strategy based on intragenic haplotype analysis. Methods: This algorithm allows the calculation of the a posteriori risk of developing Rb and takes into account (a) RBI loss of heterozygosity in tumors, (b) preferential paternal origin of new germline mutations, (c) a priori risk derived from empirical data by Vogel, and (d) disease penetrance of 90% in most cases. We report the occurrence of Rb in first degree relatives of patients with sporadic Rb who visited the Jules Gonin Eye Hospital, Lausanne, Switzerland, from January 1994 to December 2006 compared to expected new cases of Rb using our algorithm. Results: A total of 134 families with sporadic Rb were enrolled; testing was performed in 570 individuals and 99 patients younger than 4 years old were identified. We observed one new case of Rb. Using our algorithm, the cumulated total a posteriori risk of recurrence was 1.77. Conclusions: This is the first time that linkage analysis has been validated to monitor the risk of recurrence in sporadic Rb. This should be a useful tool in genetic counseling, especially when direct RBI screening for mutations leaves a negative result or is unavailable.

Safety in vicinity of industrials plants: risk assessment and land use planning

The aim of this book is to survey on different Land Use Planning and safety approaches in vicinity of industrial plants. As this research is associated with three broad fields of Land Use Planning, safety and security, the set principle is to avoid unnecessary and over detailed information, but including the useful ones to provide a comprehensive resource which can be applicable for several purposes. Besides, the proposed method, which is explained in Chapter 7, can initiate a new field for future of Land Use Planning in vicinity of industrial plants.

A public health risk assessment for yellow fever vaccination: a model exemplified by an outbreak in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

We propose a method to analyse the 2009 outbreak in the region of Botucatu in the state of São Paulo (SP), Brazil, when 28 yellow fever (YF) cases were confirmed, including 11 deaths. At the time of the outbreak, the Secretary of Health of the State of São Paulo vaccinated one million people, causing the death of five individuals, an unprecedented number of YF vaccine-induced fatalities. We apply a mathematical model described previously to optimise the proportion of people who should be vaccinated to minimise the total number of deaths. The model was used to calculate the optimum proportion that should be vaccinated in the remaining, vaccine-free regions of SP, considering the risk of vaccine-induced fatalities and the risk of YF outbreaks in these regions.

Regional-scale debris-flow risk assessment for an alpine valley

In this paper, we perform a societal and economic risk assessment for debris flows at the regional scale, for lower Valtellina, Northern Italy. We apply a simple empirical debris-flow model, FLOW-R, which couples a probabilistic flow routing algorithm with an energy line approach, providing the relative probability of transit, and the maximum kinetic energy, for each cell. By assessing a vulnerability to people and to other exposed elements (buildings, public facilities, crops, woods, communication lines), and their economic value, we calculated the expected annual losses both in terms of lives (societal risk) and goods (direct economic risk). For societal risk assessment, we distinguish for the day and night scenarios. The distribution of people at different moments of the day was considered, accounting for the occupational and recreational activities, to provide a more realistic assessment of risk. Market studies were performed in order to assess a realistic economic value to goods, structures, and lifelines. As terrain unit, a 20 m x 20 m cell was used, in accordance with data availability and the spatial resolution requested for a risk assessment at this scale. Societal risk the whole area amounts to 1.98 and 4.22 deaths/year for the day and the night scenarios, respectively, with a maximum of 0.013 deaths/year/cell. Economic risk for goods amounts to 1,760,291 ?/year, with a maximum of 13,814 ?/year/cell.

Risk assessment of recurrence in sporadic retinoblastoma using a molecular-based algorithm.

PURPOSE: Most RB1 mutations are unique and distributed throughout the RB1 gene. Their detection can be time-consuming and the yield especially low in cases of conservatively-treated sporadic unilateral retinoblastoma (Rb) patients. In order to identify patients with true risk of developing Rb, and to reduce the number of unnecessary examinations under anesthesia in all other cases, we developed a universal sensitive, efficient and cost-effective strategy based on intragenic haplotype analysis. METHODS: This algorithm allows the calculation of the a posteriori risk of developing Rb and takes into account (a) RB1 loss of heterozygosity in tumors, (b) preferential paternal origin of new germline mutations, (c) a priori risk derived from empirical data by Vogel, and (d) disease penetrance of 90% in most cases. We report the occurrence of Rb in first degree relatives of patients with sporadic Rb who visited the Jules Gonin Eye Hospital, Lausanne, Switzerland, from January 1994 to December 2006 compared to expected new cases of Rb using our algorithm. RESULTS: A total of 134 families with sporadic Rb were enrolled; testing was performed in 570 individuals and 99 patients younger than 4 years old were identified. We observed one new case of Rb. Using our algorithm, the cumulated total a posteriori risk of recurrence was 1.77. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first time that linkage analysis has been validated to monitor the risk of recurrence in sporadic Rb. This should be a useful tool in genetic counseling, especially when direct RB1 screening for mutations leaves a negative result or is unavailable.

Risk assessment of herbicide mixtures in a large European lake

Lake Geneva is one of the largest European lakes with a surface area of 580 km2. Its catchment area covers 7400 km2, of which approximately 20% is arable land. Monitoring campaigns have been carried out in 2004 and 2005 to determine the contamination of the lake by pesticides. The results highlight the widespread presence of herbicides in water, the measured concentrations for most substances remaining constant in 2004 and 2005. However, for some individual herbicides the concentrations increased drastically (e.g., the herbicide foramsulfuron). We assessed the environmental risk of the herbicides detected in the lake using water quality criteria recently determined for the Swiss environmental protection agency. Furthermore, we assessed the risk of herbicide mixtures, grouped based upon their mode of action. Generally, the risk estimated for all single substances is low, except for some sulfonylurea compounds. For these substances, the measured concentrations are higher than the predicted no-effect concentration. Impact on the flora of the lake can therefore not be excluded. When mixtures of pesticides with similar mode of action are taken into account, the risk remains lower than the mixture water quality criteria for all groups, but can reach as high as one third of this quality criteria. A further step would therefore be to assess the risk of the total pesticide mixture, including similar and dissimilar modes of action