Social development: bridging the theory-practice divide, past and present

Introduces a collection of articles appearing in a special issue that reflect on social development, considering the various intellectual forms social development has taken, how development thinking has been shaped by different concepts in different periods, and how contributors' personal experiences with social development research has been applied to social development practice.

Large Sample Theory for Semiparametric Regression Models with Two-Phase, Outcome Dependent Sampling

Outcome-dependent, two-phase sampling designs can dramatically reduce the costs of observational studies by judicious selection of the most informative subjects for purposes of detailed covariate measurement. Here we derive asymptotic information bounds and the form of the efficient score and influence functions for the semiparametric regression models studied by Lawless, Kalbfleisch, and Wild (1999) under two-phase sampling designs. We show that the maximum likelihood estimators for both the parametric and nonparametric parts of the model are asymptotically normal and efficient. The efficient influence function for the parametric part aggress with the more general information bound calculations of Robins, Hsieh, and Newey (1995). By verifying the conditions of Murphy and Van der Vaart (2000) for a least favorable parametric submodel, we provide asymptotic justification for statistical inference based on profile likelihood.

Locally Efficient Estimation in Censored Data Models: Theory and Examples

In many applications the observed data can be viewed as a censored high dimensional full data random variable X. By the curve of dimensionality it is typically not possible to construct estimators that are asymptotically efficient at every probability distribution in a semiparametric censored data model of such a high dimensional censored data structure. We provide a general method for construction of one-step estimators that are efficient at a chosen submodel of the full-data model, are still well behaved off this submodel and can be chosen to always improve on a given initial estimator. These one-step estimators rely on good estimators of the censoring mechanism and thus will require a parametric or semiparametric model for the censoring mechanism. We present a general theorem that provides a template for proving the desired asymptotic results. We illustrate the general one-step estimation methods by constructing locally efficient one-step estimators of marginal distributions and regression parameters with right-censored data, current status data and bivariate right-censored data, in all models allowing the presence of time-dependent covariates. The conditions of the asymptotics theorem are rigorously verified in one of the examples and the key condition of the general theorem is verified for all examples.

Semiparametric Theory for Causal Mediation Analysis: efficiency bounds, multiple robustness, and sensitivity analysis

Whilst estimation of the marginal (total) causal effect of a point exposure on an outcome is arguably the most common objective of experimental and observational studies in the health and social sciences, in recent years, investigators have also become increasingly interested in mediation analysis. Specifically, upon establishing a non-null total effect of the exposure, investigators routinely wish to make inferences about the direct (indirect) pathway of the effect of the exposure not through (through) a mediator variable that occurs subsequently to the exposure and prior to the outcome. Although powerful semiparametric methodologies have been developed to analyze observational studies, that produce double robust and highly efficient estimates of the marginal total causal effect, similar methods for mediation analysis are currently lacking. Thus, this paper develops a general semiparametric framework for obtaining inferences about so-called marginal natural direct and indirect causal effects, while appropriately accounting for a large number of pre-exposure confounding factors for the exposure and the mediator variables. Our analytic framework is particularly appealing, because it gives new insights on issues of efficiency and robustness in the context of mediation analysis. In particular, we propose new multiply robust locally efficient estimators of the marginal natural indirect and direct causal effects, and develop a novel double robust sensitivity analysis framework for the assumption of ignorability of the mediator variable.

Stochastic Models Based on Molecular Hybridization Theory for Short Oligonucleotide Microarrays

High density oligonucleotide expression arrays are a widely used tool for the measurement of gene expression on a large scale. Affymetrix GeneChip arrays appear to dominate this market. These arrays use short oligonucleotides to probe for genes in an RNA sample. Due to optical noise, non-specific hybridization, probe-specific effects, and measurement error, ad-hoc measures of expression, that summarize probe intensities, can lead to imprecise and inaccurate results. Various researchers have demonstrated that expression measures based on simple statistical models can provide great improvements over the ad-hoc procedure offered by Affymetrix. Recently, physical models based on molecular hybridization theory, have been proposed as useful tools for prediction of, for example, non-specific hybridization. These physical models show great potential in terms of improving existing expression measures. In this paper we demonstrate that the system producing the measured intensities is too complex to be fully described with these relatively simple physical models and we propose empirically motivated stochastic models that compliment the above mentioned molecular hybridization theory to provide a comprehensive description of the data. We discuss how the proposed model can be used to obtain improved measures of expression useful for the data analysts.

A Restriction-Centered Theory of Reasoning and Computation to materialize a Web 3.0

Researchers suggest that personalization on the Semantic Web adds up to a Web 3.0 eventually. In this Web, personalized agents process and thus generate the biggest share of information rather than humans. In the sense of emergent semantics, which supplements traditional formal semantics of the Semantic Web, this is well conceivable. An emergent Semantic Web underlying fuzzy grassroots ontology can be accomplished through inducing knowledge from users' common parlance in mutual Web 2.0 interactions [1]. These ontologies can also be matched against existing Semantic Web ontologies, to create comprehensive top-level ontologies. On the Web, if augmented with information in the form of restrictions andassociated reliability (Z-numbers) [2], this collection of fuzzy ontologies constitutes an important basis for an implementation of Zadeh's restriction-centered theory of reasoning and computation (RRC) [3]. By considering real world's fuzziness, RRC differs from traditional approaches because it can handle restrictions described in natural language. A restriction is an answer to a question of the value of a variable such as the duration of an appointment. In addition to mathematically well-defined answers, RRC can likewise deal with unprecisiated answers as "about one hour." Inspired by mental functions, it constitutes an important basis to leverage present-day Web efforts to a natural Web 3.0. Based on natural language information, RRC may be accomplished with Z-number calculation to achieve a personalized Web reasoning and computation. Finally, through Web agents' understanding of natural language, they can react to humans more intuitively and thus generate and process information.

Tax Collection in History

Methods of tax collection employed by modern governments seem dull when compared to the rich variety observed in history. Whereas most governments today typically use salaried agents to collect taxes, various other types of contractual relationships have been observed in history, including sharing arrangements which divide the tax revenue between the government and collectors at fixed proportions, negotiated payment schemes based on the tax base, and sale of the revenue to a collector in exchange for a lump-sum payment determined at auction. We propose an economic theory of tax collection that can coherently explain the temporal and spatial variation in contractual forms. We begin by offering a simple classification of tax collection schemes observed in history. We then develop a general economic model of tax collection that specifies the cost and benefits of alternative schemes and identifies the conditions under which a government would choose one contractual form over another in maximizing the net revenue. Finally, we use the conclusions of the model to explain some of the well-known patterns of tax collection observed in history and how choices varied over time and space.

Relativistic current collection by a cylindrical Langmuir probe

The current I to a cylindrical Langmuir probe with a bias Φp satisfying β≡eΦp/mec2∼O(1) is discussed. The probe is considered at rest in an unmagnetized plasma composed of electrons and ions with temperatureskTe∼kTi≪mec2. For small enough radius, the probe collects the relativistic orbital-motion-limited (OML) current I OML , which is shown to be larger than the non-relativistic result; the OML current is proportional to β1/2 and β3/2 in the limits β≪1 and β≫1, respectively. Unlike the non-relativistic case, the electron density can exceed the unperturbed density value. An asymptotic theory allowed to compute the maximum radius of the probe to collect OML current, the sheath radius for probe radius well below maximum and how the ratio I/I OML drops below unity when the maximum radius is exceeded. A numerical algorithm that solves the Vlasov-Poisson system was implemented and density and potential profiles presented. The results and their implications in a possible mission to Jupiter with electrodynamic bare tethers are discussed density value. An asymptotic theory allowed to compute the maximum radius of the probe to collect OML current, the sheath radius for probe radius well below maximum and how the ratio I/IOML drops below unity when the maximum radius is exceeded. A numerical algorithm that solves the Vlasov-Poisson system was implemented and density and potential profiles presented. The results and their implications in a possible mission to Jupiter with electrodynamic bare tethers are discussed.

Current collection by an active spherical electrode in an unmagnetized plasma

A theoretical model for the steady-state response of anodic contactors that emit a plasma current Ii and collect electrons from a collisionless, unmagnetized plasma is presented. The use of a (kinetic) monoenergetic population for the attracted species, well known in passive probe theory, gives both accuracy and tractability to the theory. The monoenergetic population is proved to behave like an isentropic fluid with radial plus centripetal motion, allowing direct comparisons with ad hoc fluid models. Also, a modification of the original monoenergetic equations permits analysis of contactors operating in orbit-limited conditions. Besides that, the theory predicts that, only for plasma emissions above certain threshold current a presheath/double layer/core structure for the potential is formed (the core mode), while for emissions below that threshold, a plasma contactor behaves exactly as a positive-ion emitter with a presheath/sheath structure (the no-core mode). Ion emitters are studied as a particular case. Emphasis is placed on obtaining dimensionless charts and approximate asymptotic laws of the current-voltage characteristic.

Bare-tether sheath and current: comparison of asymptotic theory and kinetic simulations in stationary plasma

Analytical expressions for current to a cylindrical Langmuir probe at rest in unmagnetized plasma are compared with results from both steady-state Vlasov and particle-in-cell simulations. Probe bias potentials that are much greater than plasma temperature (assumed equal for ions and electrons), as of interest for bare conductive tethers, are considered. At a very high bias, both the electric potential and the attracted-species density exhibit complex radial profiles; in particular, the density exhibits a minimum well within the plasma sheath and a maximum closer to the probe. Excellent agreement is found between analytical and numerical results for values of the probe radiusR close to the maximum radius Rmax for orbital-motion-limited (OML) collection at a particular bias in the following number of profile features: the values and positions of density minimum and maximum, position of sheath boundary, and value of a radius characterizing the no-space-charge behavior of a potential near the high-bias probe. Good agreement between the theory and simulations is also found for parametric laws jointly covering the following three characteristic R ranges: sheath radius versus probe radius and bias for Rmax; density minimum versus probe bias for Rmax; and (weakly bias-dependent) current drop below the OML value versus the probe radius for R > Rmax.

The theory of electrostatic probes in strong magnetic fields : Thesis submitted to the Faculty of The Graduate School of the University of Colorado for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy Department of Aerospace Engineering Science

A theory is developed of an electrostatic probe in a fully-ionized plasma in the presence of a strong magnetic field. The ratio of electron Larmor radius to probe transverse dimension is assumed to be small. Poisson's equation, together with kinetic equations for ions and electrons are considered. An asymptotic perturbation method of multiple scales is used by considering the characteristic lengths appearing in the problem. The leading behavior of the solution is found. The results obtained appear to apply to weaker fields also, agreeing with the solutions known in the limit of no magnetic field. The range of potentials for wich results are presented is limited. The basic effects produced by the field are a depletion of the plasma near the probe and a non-monotonic potential surrounding the probe. The ion saturation current is not changed but changes appear in both the floating potential Vf and the slope of the current-voltage diagram at Vf. The transition region extends beyond the space potential Vs,at wich point the current is largely reduced. The diagram does not have an exponential form in this region as commonly assumed. There exists saturation in electron collection. The extent to which the plasma is disturbed is determined. A cylindrical probe has no solution because of a logarithmic singularity at infinity. Extensions of the theory are considered.

PIC computation of electron current collection to a moving bare tether in the mesothermal condition

In tethered satellite technology, it is important to estimate how many electrons a spacecraft can collect from its ambient plasma by a bare electrodynamic tether. The analysis is however very difficult because of the small but significant Geo-magnetic field and the spacecraft’s relative motion to both ions and electrons. The object of our work is the development of a numerical method, for this purpose. Particle-In-Cell (PIC) method, for the calculation of electron current to a positive bare tether moving at orbital velocity in the ionosphere, i.e. in a flowing magnetized plasma under Maxwellian collisionless conditions. In a PIC code, a number of particles are distributed in phase space and the computational domain has a grid on which Poisson equation is solved for field quantities. The code uses the quasi-neutrality condition to solve for the local potential at points in the plasma which coincide with the computational outside boundary. The quasi-neutrality condition imposes ne - ni on the boundary. The Poisson equation is solved in such a way that the presheath region can be captured in the computation. Results show that the collected current is higher than the Orbital Motion Limit (OML) theory. The OML current is the upper limit of current collection under steady collisionless unmagnetized conditions. In this work, we focus on the flowing effects of plasma as a possible cause of the current enhancement. A deficit electron density due to the flowing effects has been worked and removed by introducing adiabatic electron trapping into our model.

A positivity result in the theory of Macdonald polynomials

We outline here a proof that a certain rational function Cn(q, t), which has come to be known as the “q, t-Catalan,” is in fact a polynomial with positive integer coefficients. This has been an open problem since 1994. Because Cn(q, t) evaluates to the Catalan number at t = q = 1, it has also been an open problem to find a pair of statistics a, b on the collection

Instinct and the unconscious; a contribution to a biological theory of the psycho-neuroses,

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