The solar influence on the probability of relatively cold UK winters in the future

Recent research has suggested that relatively cold UK winters are more common when solar activity is low (Lockwood et al 2010 Environ. Res. Lett. 5 024001). Solar activity during the current sunspot minimum has fallen to levels unknown since the start of the 20th century (Lockwood 2010 Proc. R. Soc. A 466 303–29) and records of past solar variations inferred from cosmogenic isotopes (Abreu et al 2008 Geophys. Res. Lett. 35 L20109) and geomagnetic activity data (Lockwood et al 2009 Astrophys. J. 700 937–44) suggest that the current grand solar maximum is coming to an end and hence that solar activity can be expected to continue to decline. Combining cosmogenic isotope data with the long record of temperatures measured in central England, we estimate how solar change could influence the probability in the future of further UK winters that are cold, relative to the hemispheric mean temperature, if all other factors remain constant. Global warming is taken into account only through the detrending using mean hemispheric temperatures. We show that some predictive skill may be obtained by including the solar effect.

Using seasonal hindcasts to understand the origin of the equatorial cold tongue bias in CGCMs and its impact on ENSO

The cold equatorial SST bias in the tropical Pacific that is persistent in many coupled OAGCMs severely impacts the fidelity of the simulated climate and variability in this key region, such as the ENSO phenomenon. The classical bias analysis in these models usually concentrates on multi-decadal to centennial time series needed to obtain statistically robust features. Yet, this strategy cannot fully explain how the models errors were generated in the first place. Here, we use seasonal re-forecasts (hindcasts) to track back the origin of this cold bias. As such hindcasts are initialized close to observations, the transient drift leading to the cold bias can be analyzed to distinguish pre-existing errors from errors responding to initial ones. A time sequence of processes involved in the advent of the final mean state errors can then be proposed. We apply this strategy to the ENSEMBLES-FP6 project multi-model hindcasts of the last decades. Four of the five AOGCMs develop a persistent equatorial cold tongue bias within a few months. The associated systematic errors are first assessed separately for the warm and cold ENSO phases. We find that the models are able to reproduce either El Niño or La Niña close to observations, but not both. ENSO composites then show that the spurious equatorial cooling is maximum for El Niño years for the February and August start dates. For these events and at this time of the year, zonal wind errors in the equatorial Pacific are present from the beginning of the simulation and are hypothesized to be at the origin of the equatorial cold bias, generating too strong upwelling conditions. The systematic underestimation of the mixed layer depth in several models can also amplify the growth of the SST bias. The seminal role of these zonal wind errors is further demonstrated by carrying out ocean-only experiments forced by the AOCGCMs daily 10-meter wind. In a case study, we show that for several models, this forcing is sufficient to reproduce the main SST error patterns seen after 1 month in the AOCGCM hindcasts.

Isotopic signature of specific biomarkers derived from anaerobic methanotrophic archaea (ANME groups) and sulphate-reducing bacteria (SRB) at different cold seep provinces

Anaerobic methane-oxidizing microbial communities in sediments at cold methane seeps are important factors in controlling methane emission to the ocean and atmosphere. Here, we investigated the distribution and carbon isotopic signature of specific biomarkers derived from anaerobic methanotrophic archaea (ANME groups) and sulphate-reducing bacteria (SRB) responsible for the anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) at different cold seep provinces of Hydrate Ridge, Cascadia margin. The special focus was on their relation to in situ cell abundances and methane turnover. In general, maxima in biomarker abundances and minima in carbon isotope signatures correlated with maxima in AOM and sulphate reduction as well as with consortium biomass. We found ANME-2a/DSS aggregates associated with high abundances of sn-2,3-di-O-isoprenoidal glycerol ethers (archaeol, sn-2-hydroxyarchaeol) and specific bacterial fatty acids (C16:1omega5c, cyC17:0omega5,6) as well as with high methane fluxes (Beggiatoa site). The low to medium flux site (Calyptogena field) was dominated by ANME-2c/DSS aggregates and contained less of both compound classes but more of AOM-related glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs). ANME-1 archaea dominated deeper sediment horizons at the Calyptogena field where sn-1,2-di-O-alkyl glycerol ethers (DAGEs), archaeol, methyl-branched fatty acids (ai-C15:0, i-C16:0, ai-C17:0), and diagnostic GDGTs were prevailing. AOM-specific bacterial and archaeal biomarkers in these sediment strata generally revealed very similar d13C-values of around -100 per mill. In ANME-2-dominated sediment sections, archaeal biomarkers were even more 13C-depleted (down to -120 per mill), whereas bacterial biomarkers were found to be likewise 13C-depleted as in ANME-1-dominated sediment layers (d13C: -100 per mill). The zero flux site (Acharax field), containing only a few numbers of ANME-2/DSS aggregates, however, provided no specific biomarker pattern. Deeper sediment sections (below 20 cm sediment depth) from Beggiatoa covered areas which included solid layers of methane gas hydrates contained ANME-2/DSS typical biomarkers showing subsurface peaks combined with negative shifts in carbon isotopic compositions. The maxima were detected just above the hydrate layers, indicating that methane stored in the hydrates may be available for the microbial community. The observed variations in biomarker abundances and 13C-depletions are indicative of multiple environmental and physiological factors selecting for different AOM consortia (ANME-2a/DSS, ANME-2c/DSS, ANME-1) along horizontal and vertical gradients of cold seep settings.

Mats of psychrophilic thiotrophic bacteria associated with cold seeps of the Barents Sea

This study focused on the bacterial diversity associated with microbial mats of deep-sea cold seeps at the Norwegian continental margin. Study sites included the Storegga and Nyegga areas as well as the Håkon Mosby mud volcano, where the mats occurred at temperatures permanently close to the freezing point of seawater. Two visually different mat types, i.e. small gray mats and extensive white mats, were studied with the aim to determine the identity of the mat-forming sulfide oxidizers, and to investigate which environmental factors (e.g. sulfate reduction and methane oxidation rates) shown here could explain the observed diversity. Sequence data have been submitted to the EMBL database under accession No. FR847864-FR847887 (giant sulfur bacteria), No. FR827864 (Menez Gwen filament; see Supplementary Material) and No. FR875365-FR877509 (except FR875905; remaining partial sequences).

Biogeochemical measurements of cold seep sediments inhabit by vesicomyid clams in the Japan Deep Sea Trench

Vesicomyidae clams harbor sulfide-oxidizing endosymbionts and are typical members of cold seep communities associated with tectonic faults where active venting of fluids and gases takes place. We investigated the central biogeochemical processes that supported a vesicomyid clam colony as part of a locally restricted seep community in the Japan Trench at 5346 m water depth, one of the deepest seep settings studied to date. An integrated approach of biogeochemical and molecular ecological techniques was used combining in situ and ex situ measurements. During the cruise YK06-05 in 2006 with the RV Yokosuka to the Japan Trench, we investigated a clam colony inhabited by Abyssogena phaseoliformis (former known as Calyptogena phaseoliformis) and Isorropodon fossajaponicum (former known as Calyptogena fossajaponica). The targeted sampling and precise positioning of the in situ instruments were achieved with the manned research submersible Shinkai 6500 (JAMSTEC, Nankoku, Kochi, Japan). Sampling was first performed close to the rim of the JTC colony and then at the center. Immediately after sample recovery onboard, the sediment core was sub-sampled for ex situ rate measurements or preserved for later analyses. In sediment of the clam colony, low sulfate reduction (SR) rates (max. 128 nmol ml**-1 d**-1) were coupled to the anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM). They were observed over a depth range of 15 cm, caused by active transport of sulfate due to bioturbation of the vesicomyid clams. A distinct separation between the seep and the surrounding seafloor was shown by steep horizontal geochemical gradients and pronounced microbial community shifts. The sediment below the clam colony was dominated by anaerobic methanotrophic archaea (ANME-2c) and sulfate-reducing Desulfobulbaceae (SEEP-SRB-3, SEEP-SRB-4). Aerobic methanotrophic bacteria were not detected in the sediment and the oxidation of sulfide seemed to be carried out chemolithoautotrophically by Sulfurovum species. Thus, major redox processes were mediated by distinct subgroups of seep-related microorganisms that might have been selected by this specific abyssal seep environment. Fluid flow and microbial activity was low but sufficient to support the clam community over decades and to build up high biomasses. Hence, the clams and their microbial communities adapted successfully to a low-energy regime and may represent widespread chemosynthetic communities in the Japan Trench.

Growth rates and skeletal density of the scleractinian cold-water coral Desmophyllum dianthus at Isla Liliguapi (Fjord Comau, southern Chile)

It has been hypothesized that endolithic photo-autotrophs inside the skeleton of cold-water corals may have a mutualistic relationship with the coral host positively affecting coral calcification. This study investigated the effect of endolithic photo-autotrophs on the apical septal extension of the cold-water coral Desmophyllum dianthus at Fjord Comau, southern Chile (42.41° - 42.15°S, 72.5°W). The fluorescent staining agent calcein was used to document the linear apical extension of septae for a period of one and a half years between 2006 and 2007. The results showed a severe reduction in extension rates associated with the presence of endolithic photo-autotrophs. Infested individuals grew about half as fast as non-infested polyps with a median value of 1.18 µm/day compared to 2.76 µm/day. Contrary to the initial hypothesis, these results point toward a parasitic relationship between D. dianthus and its endolithic photo-autotrophs potentially impairing coral fitness. However, further data on physiological parameters and other aspects of the calcification process are necessary to confirm these findings.

Tab. 1+7: Hydrochemical analyses of firn and meltwater from different "cold" snow patches

In wide areas of Northern Siberia, glaciers have been absent since the Late Pleistocene. Therefore, ground ice and especially ice wedges are used as archives for paleoclimatic studies. In the present study, carried out on the Bykovsky Peninsula, eastern Lena Delta, we were able to distinguish ice wedges of different genetic units by means of oxygen and hydrogen isotopes. The results obtained by this study on the Ice Complex, a peculiar periglacial phenomenon, allowed the reconstruction of the climate history with a subdivision of a period of very cold winters (60-55 ka), followed by a long stable period of cold winter temperatures (50-24 ka), Between 20 ka and 11 ka, climate warming is indicated in stable isotope compositions, most probably after the Late Glacial Maximum. At that time, a change of the marine source of the precipitation from a more humid source to the present North AtIantic source region was assumed. For the Ice Complex, a continuous age-height relationship was established, indicating syngenetic vertical ice wedge growth and sediment accumulation rates of 0.7 m/ky. During the Holocene optimum, ice wedge growth was probably limited due to the extensive formation of lacustrine environments. Holocene ice wedges in thermokarst depressions (alases) and thermoerosional valleys (logs) were formed after climate deterioration from about 4.5 ka until the present. Winter temperatures were warmer at this time as compared to the cooler Pleistocene. Migration of bound water between ice wedges and segregated ice may have altered the isotopic composition of old ice wedges. The presence of ice wedges as diagnostic features for permafrost conditions since 60 ka, implies that a large glacier extending over the Laptev Sea shelf did not exist. For the remote non-glaciated areas of Northern Siberia, ice wedges were established as a powerful climate archive.

Counts of harpacticoid copepods associated with cold-water coral substrates obtained from several Belgica cruises, Porcupine Seabight (North-East Atlantic)

The influence of microhabitat type on the diversity and community structure of the harpacticoid copepod fauna associated with a cold-water coral degradation zone was investigated in the Porcupine Seabight (North-East Atlantic). Three substrate types were distinguished: dead fragments of the cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa, skeletons of the glass sponge Aphrocallistes bocagei and the underlying sediment. At the family level, it appears that coral fragments and underlying sediment do not harbour distinctly diVerent assemblages, with Ectinosomatidae, Ameiridae, Pseudotachidiidae, Argestidae and Miraciidae as most abundant. Conclusions on assemblage structure and diversity of the sponge skeletons are limited as only two samples were available. Similarity analysis at species level showed a strong variation in the sediment samples, which did not harbour a distinctly different assemblage in opposition to the coral and sponge samples. Several factors (sediment infill on the hard substrates, mobility of the copepods, limited sample sizes) are proposed to explain this apparent lack of a distinct difference between the microhabitats. Coral fragments and sediment were both characterised by high species diversity and low species dominance, which might indicate that copepod diversity is not substantially influenced by hydrodynamic stress. The additive partitioning of species diversity showed that by adding locations species richness was greatly enhanced. The harpacticoid community in the cold-water coral degradation zone is highly diverse and includes 157 species, 62 genera and 19 families. Information from neighbouring soft-bottom regions is necessary to assess whether total species diversity is increased by the presence of these complex habitatproviding substrates.

Porewater concentrations, pH, single cell number, anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) rate, sulfate reduction (SR) rate of samples during METEOR cruise M76/3b at the REGAB cold seep site from the West African margin in 2008

The giant pockmark REGAB (West African margin, 3160 m water depth) is an active methane-emitting cold seep ecosystem, where the energy derived from microbially mediated oxidation of methane supports high biomass and diversity of chemosynthetic communities. Bare sediments interspersed with heterogeneous chemosynthetic assemblages of mytilid mussels, vesicomyid clams and siboglinid tubeworms form a complex seep ecosystem. To better understand if benthic bacterial communities reflect the patchy distribution of chemosynthetic fauna, all major chemosynthetic habitats at REGAB were investigated using an interdisciplinary approach combining porewater geochemistry, in situ quantification of fluxes and consumption of methane, as well bacterial community fingerprinting. This study revealed that sediments populated by different fauna assemblages show distinct biogeochemical activities and are associated with distinct sediment bacterial communities. The methane consumption and methane effluxes ranged over one to two orders of magnitude across habitats, and reached highest values at the mussel habitat, which hosted a different bacterial community compared to the other habitats. Clam assemblages had a profound impact on the sediment geochemistry, but less so on the bacterial community structure. Moreover, all clam assemblages at REGAB were restricted to sediments characterized by complete methane consumption in the seafloor, and intermediate biogeochemical activity. Overall, variations in the sediment geochemistry were reflected in the distribution of both fauna and microbial communities; and were mostly determined by methane flux.