Ensemble prediction of transitions of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet

The consistency of ensemble forecasts from three global medium-range prediction systems with the observed transition behaviour of a three-cluster model of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet is examined. The three clusters consist of a mid jet cluster taken to represent an undisturbed jet and south and north jet clusters representing southward and northward shifts of the jet. The ensemble forecasts span a period of three extended winters (October–February) from October 2007–February 2010. The mean probabilities of transitions between the clusters calculated from the ensemble forecasts are compared with those calculated from a 23-extended-winter climatology taken from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-Year Re-analysis (ERA40) dataset. No evidence of a drift with increasing lead time of the ensemble forecast transition probabilities towards values inconsistent with the 23-extended-winter climatology is found. The ensemble forecasts of transition probabilities are found to have positive Brier Skill at 15 day lead times. It is found that for the three-extended-winter forecast set, probabilistic forecasts initialized in the north jet cluster are generally less skilful than those initialized in the other clusters. This is consistent with the shorter persistence time-scale of the north jet cluster observed in the ERA40 23-extended-winter climatology. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Oriented Percolation in One-dimensional 1/vertical bar x-y vertical bar(2) Percolation Models

We consider independent edge percolation models on Z, with edge occupation probabilities. We prove that oriented percolation occurs when beta > 1 provided p is chosen sufficiently close to 1, answering a question posed in Newman and Schulman (Commun. Math. Phys. 104: 547, 1986). The proof is based on multi-scale analysis.

In-home monitoring of older adults with vision impairment: exploring patients', caregivers' and professionals' views

Objective
To develop a conceptual framework for the design of an in-home monitoring system (IMS) based on the requirements of older adults with vision impairment (VI), informal caregivers and eye-care rehabilitation professionals.

Materials and Methods
Concept mapping, a mixed-methods statistical research tool, was used in the construction of the framework. Overall, 40 participants brainstormed or sorted and rated 83 statements concerning an IMS for older adults with VI. Multidimensional scaling and hierarchical cluster analysis were employed to construct the framework. A questionnaire yielded further insights into the views of a wider sample of older adults with VI (n=78) and caregivers (n=25) regarding IMS.

Results
Concept mapping revealed a nine-cluster model of IMS-related aspects including affordability, awareness of system capabilities, simplicity of installation, operation and maintenance, system integrity and reliability, fall detection and safe movement, user customization, user preferences regarding information delivery, and safety alerts for patients and caregivers. From the questionnaire, independence, safety and fall detection were the most commonly reported reasons for older adults and caregivers to accept an IMS. Concerns included cost, privacy, security of the information obtained through monitoring, system accuracy, and ease of use.

Discussion
Older adults with VI, caregivers and professionals are receptive to in-home monitoring, mainly for fall detection and safety monitoring, but have concerns that must be addressed when developing an IMS.

Conclusion
Our study provides a novel conceptual framework for the design of an IMS that will be maximally acceptable and beneficial to our ageing and vision-impaired population.

Novas fases amorfas de carbono produzidas por irradiação iônica de filmes de C/sub 60/, [alfa]-C e [alfa]-C:H

Neste trabalho estuda-se a formação de novas fases de carbono amorfo através da irradiação iônica de filmes de fulereno, a-C e a-C:H polimérico. Os efeitos da irradiação iônica na modificação das propriedades ópticas e mecânicas dos filmes de carbono irradiados são analisados de forma correlacionada com as alterações estruturais a nivel atômico. O estudo envolve tanto a análise dos danos induzidos no fulereno pela irradiação iônica a baixas fluências, correspondendo a baixas densidades de energia depositada, quanto a investigação das propriedades físico-químicas das fases amorfas obtidas após irradiações dos filmes de fulereno, a-C e a-C:H com altas densidades de energia depositada. As propriedades ópticas, mecânicas e estruturais das amostras são analisadas através de técnicas de espectroscopia Raman e infravermelho, espectrofotometria UV-VIS-NIR, microscopias ópticas e de força atômica, nanoindentação e técnicas de análise por feixe de íons, tais como retroespalhamento Rutherford e análises por reação nuclear. As irradiações produzem profundas modificações nas amostras de fulereno, a-C e a-C:H, e por conseqüência significativas alterações em suas propriedades ópticas e mecânicas. Após máximas fluências de irradiação fases amorfas rígidas (com dureza de 14 e 17 GPa) e com baixos gaps ópticos (0,2 e 0,5 eV) são formadas. Estas estruturas não usuais correspondem a arranjos atômicos com 90 a 100% de estados sp2. Em geral fases sp2 são planares e apresentam baixa dureza, como predito pelo modelo de “cluster”. Entretanto, os resultados experimentais mostram que as propriedades elásticas das novas fases formadas são alcançadas através da criação de uma estrutura sp2 tridimensional. A indução de altas distorções angulares, através da irradiação iônica, possibilita a formação de anéis de carbono não hexagonais, tais como pentágonos e heptágonos, permitindo assim a curvatura da estrutura. Utilizando um modelo de contagem de vínculos é feita uma análise comparativa entre a topologia (estrutura geométrica) de ligações C-sp2 e as propriedades nanomecânicas. São comparados os efeitos de estruturas sp2 planares e tridimensionais (aleatórias) no processo de contagem de vínculos e, conseqüentemente, nas propriedades elásticas de cada sistema. Os resultados mostram que as boas propriedades mecânicas das novas fases de carbono formadas seguem as predições do modelo de vínculos para uma rede atômica sp2 tridimensional. A formação de uma fase amorfa dura e 100% sp2 representa uma importante conquista na procura de novas estruturas rígidas de carbono. A síntese da estrutura desordenada sp2 tridimensional e vinculada aqui apresentada é bastante incomum na literatura. O presente trabalho mostra que o processo de não-equilíbrio de deposição de energia durante a irradiação iônica permite a formação de distorções angulares nas ligações sp2-C, possibilitando a criação de estruturas grafíticas tridimensionais.

An ab initio study of oxygen vacancies and doping process of Nb and Cr atoms on TiO2 (110) surface models

We theoretically investigated how the formation of oxygen vacancies and the addition of niobium and chromium atoms as dopants modify the varistor properties of TiO2. The calculations were carried out at the HF level using a contracted basis set, developed by Huzinaga et al.. to represent the atomic centers on the (110) surface for the large (TiO2)(15) cluster model. The change of the values for the net atomic charges and band gap after oxygen vacancy formation and the presence of dopants in the lattice are analyzed and discussed. It is shown that the formation of oxygen vacancies decreases the band gap while an opposite effect is found when dopants are located in the reduced surface. The theoretical results are compared with available experimental data. A plausible explanation of the varistor behavior of this system is proposed. (C) 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Theoretical study of MgO(001) surfaces: Pure, doped with Fe, Ca, and Al, and with and without adsorbed water

Ab initio calculations of large cluster models have been performed in order to study water adsorption at the five-fold coordinated adsorption site on pure Mg(001) and MgO(001) surfaces doped with Fe, Ca, and Al. The geometric parameters of the adsorbed water molecule have been optimized preparatory to analysis of binding energies, charge transfer, preferential sites of interaction, and bonding distances. We have used Mulliken population analysis methods in order to analyze charge distributions and the direction of charge transfer. We have also investigated energy gaps, HOMO energies, and SCF orbital energies as well as the acid-base properties of our cluster model. Numerical results are compared, where possible, with experiment and interpreted in the framework of various analytical models. (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Theoretical analysis on TiO(2)(110)/V surface

Theoretical analysis based on the Hartree-Fock method were performed in order to study the stoichiometric TiO(2) (110) surface and the vanadium substituted system. The Pople with polarization 3-21G* basis set level was used. The TiO(2) (110) surface was modeled using a (TiO(2))(15) cluster model. In order to take into account the finite size of the cluster, we have studied two different models: the point charge and the hydrogen saturated methodologies. The charge values used in the point charge calculations were optimized. The density of states, orbital self-consistend field (SCF) energies, and Mulliken charge values were analyzed. The method and model's dependence on the analyzed results are discussed. The theoretical results are compared with available experimental data. (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

On the stabilizing behavior of zirconia: A combined experimental and theoretical study

Reactive zirconia powder was synthesized by the complexation of zirconium metal from zirconium hydroxide using a solution of 8-hydroxiquinoline. The kinetics of zirconia crystallization was followed by X-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy and surface area measured by the nitrogen adsorption/desorption technique. The results indicated that zirconia with a surface area as high as 100 m(2)/g can be obtained by this method after calcination at 500degreesC. Zirconia presents three polymorphic phases (monoclinic, tetragonal and cubic), which are reversibly interconversible. The cluster model Zr4O8 and Z(r)4O(7)(+2) was used for a theoretical study of the stabilization process. The ab initio RHF method was employed with the Gaussian94 program and the total energies and the energy gap of the different phases were calculated and compared with the experimental energy gap. The theoretical results show good reproducibility of the energy gap for zirconia. (C) 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Efeito túnel multidimensional em reações nucleares

Pós-graduação em Física - IFT

Genotype by environment interaction for birth and weaning weights of composite beef cattle in different regions of Brazil

The objectives of the present study were to characterize and define homogenous production environments of composite beef cattle in Brazil in terms of climatic and geographic variables using multivariate exploratory techniques and to use them to assess the presence of G x E for birth weight (BW) and weaning weight (WW). Data from animals born between 1995 and 2008 on 36 farms located in 27 municipalities of the Brazilian states were used. Fifteen years of climate observations (mean minimum and maximum annual temperature and mean annual rainfall) and geographic (latitude, longitude and altitude) data were obtained for each municipality where the farms were located for characterization of the production environments. Hierarchical and nonhierarchical cluster analysis was used to group farms located in regions with similar environmental variables into clusters. Six clusters of farms were formed. The effect of sire-cluster interaction was tested by single-trait analysis using deviance information criterion (DIC). Genetic parameters were estimated by multi-trait analysis considering the same trait to be different in each cluster. According to the values of DIC, the inclusion of sire-cluster effect did not improve the fit of the genetic evaluation model for BW and WW. Estimates of genetic correlations among clusters ranged from -0.02 to 0.92. The low genetic correlation among the most studied regions permits us to suggest that a separate genetic evaluation for some regions should be undertaken. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spektromikroskopische Analyse von Nukleationsdomänen in epitaktischen Diamantschichten auf Ir,SrTiO 3 und von präsolaren SiC-Meteoritenkörnern

Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurden zwei verschiedene Systeme untersucht, deren verbindende Gemeinsamkeit in den verwendeten ortsauflösenden, spektroskopischen Messmethoden der Oberflächenanalytik, wie z.B. abbildendes XPS, Röntgennahkanten-Photoemissionsmikroskopie (XANES-PEEM) und Augerspektroskopie (AES) liegt. Im ersten Teil der Arbeit wurden Diamant-Nukleationsdomänen auf Ir/SrTiO3 untersucht und mit vorherrschenden Modellen aus der Literatur verglichen. Die Nukleationsdomänen, wie sie im Mikrowellen-induzierten CVD Prozess unter Verwendung der BEN Prozedur (bias-enhanced nucleation) entstehen, bilden die „Startschicht“ für ein heteroepitaktisches Wachstum einer hoch orientierten Diamantschicht. Sie entwickeln sich aber unter Bedingungen, unter denen 3D-Diamant abgetragen und weggeätzt wird. Mittels XANES-PEEM Messungen konnte erstmals die lokale Bindungsumgebung des Kohlenstoffs in den Nukleationsdomänen ortsaufgelöst aufgezeigt werden und aus AES Messungen ließ sich die Schichtdicke der Nukleationsdomänen abschätzen. Es zeigte sich, dass die Nukleationsdomänen Bereiche mit etwa 1 nm Dicke darstellen, in denen der Übergang von eine sp2-koordinierte amorphen Kohlenstoff- zu einer Diamantschicht mit hohem sp3 Anteil abläuft. Zur Erklärung des Nukleationsprozesses wurde auf das „Clustermodell“ von Lifshitz et al. zurückgegriffen, welches um einen wesentlichen Aspekt erweitert wurde. Die Stabilität der Nukleationsdomänen gegen die Ätzwirkung des Nukleationsprozesses auf Volumendiamant wird durch eine starke Wechselwirkung zwischen dem Diamant und dem Iridiumsubstrat erklärt, wobei die Dicke von etwa 1 nm als Maß für die Ausdehnung dieses Wechselwirkungsbereichs angesehen wird. Der zweite Teil der Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Charakterisierung präsolarer SiC-Körner und darin eingeschlossener Spurenelemente. Neben den Hauptelementen Si und C wurden auch Spinelle wie Chromit (FeCr2O4), Korund (Al2O3) und auch verschiedene Spurenelemente (z. B. Al, Ba und Y) nachgewiesen. Ferner wurden XPS-Linien bei Energien nachgewiesen, welche sich den Seltenen Erden Erbium, Thulium und Dysprosium zuordnen lassen. Aufgrund von Abweichungen zur Literatur bzgl. der ausgeprägten Intensität der XPS-Linien, wurde als alternative Erklärungsmöglichkeit für verschiedene Signale der Nachweis von stark schwefelhaltigen Körnern (z.B. so genannte „Fremdlinge“) mit Aufladungen von mehreren Volt diskutiert. Es zeigt sich, dass abbildendes XPS und XANES-PEEM Methoden zur leistungsfähigen chemischen Charakterisierung von SiC-Körnern und anderer solarer und präsolarer Materie im Größenbereich bis herab zu 100 – 200 nm Durchmesser (z.B. als Grundlage für eine spätere massenspektrometrische Isotopenanalyse)darstellen.

Why H Atom Prefers the On-Top Site and Alkali Metals Favor the Middle Hollow Site on the Basal Plane of Graphite

In this work, the different adsorption properties of H and alkali metal atoms on the basal plane of graphite are studied and compared using a density functional method on the same model chemistry level. The results show that H prefers the on-top site while alkali metals favor the middle hollow site of graphite basal plane due to the unique electronic structures of H, alkali metals, and graphite. H has a higher electronegativity than carbon, preferring to form a covalent bond with C atoms, whereas alkaline metals have lower electronegativity, tending to adsorb on the highest electrostatic potential sites. During adsorption, there are more charges transferred from alkali metal to graphite than from H to graphite.

A FORMAÇÃO DE CLUSTERS PARA PEQUENAS E MÉDIAS EMPRESAS E AS VANTAGENS LOGÍSTICAS NA REGIÃO DO GRANDE ABC PAULISTA

A busca por maior competitividade frente ao mercado cada vez mais concorrido, a perseguição pela maximização dos lucros nas organizações, e as maneiras para tornar as organizações mais eficientes são assuntos largamente debatidos em discussões nos ambientes empresariais e acadêmicos, áreas em que a administração é requerida para analisar o universo de possibilidades em busca dos objetivos acima. Principalmente sobre as pequenas e médias empresas (PME), os impactos dos custos decorrentes de falta de infraestruturas adequadas em transportes, movimentação de materiais e em logística em geral, tornam estas organizações menos competitivas. Uma das alternativas que deve ser apresentada é um agrupamento destas organizações em um mesmo espaço físico, os denominados clusters, a fim de compartilharem alguns destes custos, além de experiências para atingirem alguns ganhos também em escala. Na logística, existe a possibilidade de compartilhamento de diversos serviços, onde deverá ser identificada boa parte do potencial de ganho com este modelo, que é aplicado para diversos segmentos inclusive ao redor do mundo. Em especial no Brasil onde a carga tributária é elevada e muito complexa, quando se opta pelo modelo de cluster, haverá ganhos em escala inclusive na tributação fiscal das movimentações de mercadorias. Através do levantamento bibliográfico e a comparação de dados de diversos artigos e de instituições públicas e privadas, objetiva-se apresentar as vantagens das operações no modelo cluster, a possibilidade dos ganhos pelo cooperativismo existente nestes empreendimentos entre outras formas de benefícios possíveis na logística compartilhada pelas empresas do cluster, além de possíveis desvantagens e limitações. .  

Multiple sulfur isotope fractionations in inorganic aqueous systems

New constraints on isotope fractionation factors in inorganic aqueous sulfur systems based on theoretical and experimental techniques relevant to studies of the sulfur cycle in modern environments and the geologic rock record are presented in this dissertation. These include theoretical estimations of equilibrium isotope fractionation factors utilizing quantum mechanical software and a water cluster model approach for aqueous sulfur compounds that span the entire range of oxidation state for sulfur. These theoretical calculations generally reproduce the available experimental determinations from the literature and provide new constraints where no others are available. These theoretical calculations illustrate in detail the relationship between sulfur bonding environment and the mass dependence associated with equilibrium isotope exchange reactions involving all four isotopes of sulfur. I additionally highlight the effect of isomers of protonated compounds (compounds with the same chemical formula but different structure, where protons are bound to either sulfur or oxygen atoms) on isotope partitioning in the sulfite (S4+) and sulfoxylate (S2+) systems, both of which are key intermediates in oxidation-reduction processes in the sulfur cycle. I demonstrate that isomers containing the highest degree of coordination around sulfur (where protonation occurs on the sulfur atom) have a strong influence on isotopic fractionation factors, and argue that isomerization phenomenon should be considered in models of the sulfur cycle. Additionally, experimental results of the reaction rates and isotope fractionations associated with the chemical oxidation of aqueous sulfide are presented. Sulfide oxidation is a major process in the global sulfur cycle due largely to the sulfide-producing activity of anaerobic microorganisms in organic-rich marine sediments. These experiments reveal relationships between isotope fractionations and reaction rate as a function of both temperature and trace metal (ferrous iron) catalysis that I interpret in the context of the complex mechanism of sulfide oxidation. I also demonstrate that sulfide oxidation is a process associated with a mass dependence that can be described as not conforming to the mass dependence typically associated with equilibrium isotope exchange. This observation has implications for the inclusion of oxidative processes in environmental- and global-scale models of the sulfur cycle based on the mass balance of all four isotopes of sulfur. The contents of this dissertation provide key reference information on isotopic fractionation factors in aqueous sulfur systems that will have far-reaching applicability to studies of the sulfur cycle in a wide variety of natural settings.