The dating of dipterocarp tree rings: establishing a record of carbon cycling and climatic change in the tropics

In a first step to obtain a proxy record of past climatic events (including the El Ni (n) over tildeo-Southern Oscillation) in the normally aseasonal tropical environment of Sabah, a radial segment from a recently fallen dipterocarp (Shorea Superba) was radiocarbon dated and subjected to carbon isotope analysis. The high-precision radiocarbon results fell into the ambiguous modern plateau where several calibrated dates can exist for each sample. Dating was achieved by wiggle matching using a Bayesian approach to calibration. Using the defined growth characteristics of Shorea superba, probability density distributions were calculated and improbable dates rejected. It was found that the tree most likely started growing around AD 1660-1685. A total of 173 apparent growth increments were measured and, therefore, it could be determined that the tree formed one ring approximately every two years. Stable carbon isotope values were obtained from resin-extracted wholewood from each ring. Carbon cycling is evident in the `juvenile effect', resulting from the assimilation of respired carbon dioxide and lower light levels below the canopy, and in the `anthropogenic effect' caused by increased industrial activity in the late-nineteenth and twentieth centuries. This study demonstrates that palaeoenvironmental information can be obtained from trees growing in aseasonal environments, where climatic conditions prevent the formation of well-defined annual rings.

A compilation of Western European terrestrial records 60–8 ka BP: towards an understanding of latitudinal climatic gradients

Terrestrial records of past climatic conditions, such as lake sediments and speleothems, provide data of great importance for understanding environmental changes. However, unlike marine and ice core records, terrestrial palaeodata are often not available in databases or in a format that is easily accessible to the non-specialist. As a consequence, many excellent terrestrial records are unknown to the broader palaeoclimate community and are not included in compilations, comparisons, or modelling exercises. Here we present a compilation of Western European terrestrial palaeo-records covering, entirely or partially, the 60–8-ka INTIMATE time period. The compilation contains 56 natural archives, including lake records, speleothems, ice cores, and terrestrial proxies in marine records. The compilation is limited to include records of high temporal resolution and/or records that provide climate proxies or quantitative reconstructions of environmental parameters, such as temperature or precipitation, and that are of relevance and interest to a broader community. We briefly review the different types of terrestrial archives, their respective proxies, their interpretation and their application for palaeoclimatic reconstructions. We also discuss the importance of independent chronologies and the issue of record synchronization. The aim of this exercise is to provide the wider palaeo-community with a consistent compilation of high-quality terrestrial records, to facilitate model-data comparisons, and to identify key areas of interest for future investigations. We use the compilation to investigate Western European latitudinal climate gradients during the deglacial period and, despite of poorly constrained chronologies for the older records, we summarize the main results obtained from NW and SW European terrestrial records before the LGM.

Climatic and anthropogenic changes in Western Switzerland: Impacts on water stress

Recent observed hydro-climatic changes in mountainous areas are of concern as they may directly affect capacity to fulfill water needs. The canton of Vaud in Western Switzerland is an example of such a region as it has experienced water shortage episodes during the past decade. Based on an integrated modeling framework, this study explores how hydro-climatic conditions and water needs could evolve in mountain environments and assesses their potential impacts on water stress by the 2060 horizon. Flows were simulated based on a daily semi-distributed hydrological model. Future changes were derived from Swiss climate scenarios based on two regional climate models. Regarding water needs, the authorities of the canton of Vaud provided a population growth scenario while irrigation and livestock trends followed a business-as-usual scenario. Currently, the canton of Vaud experiences moderate water stress from June to August, except in its Alpine area where no stress is noted. In the 2060 horizon, water needs could exceed 80% of the rivers' available resources in low- to mid-altitude environments in mid-summer. This arises from the combination of drier and warmer climate that leads to longer and more severe low flows, and increasing urban (+ 40%) and irrigation (+ 25%) water needs. Highlighting regional differences supports the development of sustainable development pathways to reduce water tensions. Based on a quantitative assessment, this study also calls for broader impact studies including water quality issues.

Preconditioning in the reef-building coral Pocillopora damicornis and the potential for trans-generational acclimatization in coral larvae under future climate change conditions

Coral reefs are globally threatened by climate change-related ocean warming and ocean acidification (OA). To date, slow-response mechanisms such as genetic adaptation have been considered the major determinant of coral reef persistence, with little consideration of rapid-response acclimatization mechanisms. These rapid mechanisms such as parental effects that can contribute to trans-generational acclimatization (e.g. epigenetics) have, however, been identified as important contributors to offspring response in other systems. We present the first evidence of parental effects in a cross-generational exposure to temperature and OA in reef-building corals. Here, we exposed adults to high (28.9°C, 805 µatm PCO2) or ambient (26.5°C, 417 µatm PCO2) temperature and OA treatments during the larval brooding period. Exposure to high treatment negatively affected adult performance, but their larvae exhibited size differences and metabolic acclimation when subsequently re-exposed, unlike larvae from parents exposed to ambient conditions. Understanding the innate capacity corals possess to respond to current and future climatic conditions is essential to reef protection and maintenance. Our results identify that parental effects may have an important role through (1) ameliorating the effects of stress through preconditioning and adaptive plasticity, and/or (2) amplifying the negative parental response through latent effects on future life stages. Whether the consequences of parental effects and the potential for trans-generational acclimatization are beneficial or maladaptive, our work identifies a critical need to expand currently proposed climate change outcomes for corals to further assess rapid response mechanisms that include non-genetic inheritance through parental contributions and classical epigenetic mechanisms.

Effect of the curing conditions of concrete on the behaviour under freeze-thaw cycles*

The aim of this work is to relate the curing conditions of concrete and the addition of an air-entraining admixture with the damage caused by freeze–thaw cycles. In countries with a continental climate, the curing of concrete in summer is performed under climatic conditions of high temperature and low humidity, and during the winter the concrete suffers conditions of freeze–thaw, often accompanied by the use of de-icing salts. This paper shows the experimental results of the behaviour of concrete specimens cured under climatic summer conditions (high temperature and low humidity) and then subjected to freeze–thaw cycles. Curing of the specimens includes conditions of good and bad practice in relation to wetting and protection of the concrete. It also examines the effectiveness of using an air-entraining admixture in both cases. The experimental programme includes an evaluation of the mechanical properties of the concrete, the study of the cement hydration and the measurement of the volume and pore sizes of the concrete. These tests were performed before and after the application of the freeze–thaw cycles. The results obtained showed that the specimens without air-entraining admixture show a deterioration of mechanical properties after the freeze–thaw test. However, the inclusion of air bubbles benefits the behaviour of concrete against freeze–thaw cycles so even better mechanical properties after the test were observed. This anomalous behaviour is because the cement hydration process continues over the freeze–thaw tests, closing the pore structure. This aspect has been confirmed with the DTA and TG tests performed

Atmospheric Propagation at 100 and 300 GHz: Assessment of a Method to Identify Rainy Conditions during Radiosoundings

The influence of atmospheric gases and tropospheric phenomena becomes more relevant at frequencies within the THz band (100 GHz to 10 THz), severely affecting the propagation conditions. The use of radiosoundings in propagation studies is a well established measurement technique in order to collect information about the vertical structure of the atmosphere, from which gaseous and cloud attenuation can be estimated with the use of propagation models. However, some of these prediction models are not suitable to be used under rainy conditions. In the present study, a method to identify the presence of rainy conditions during radiosoundings is introduced, with the aim of filtering out these events from yearly statistics of predicted atmospheric attenuation. The detection procedure is based on the analysis of a set of parameters, some of them extracted from synoptical observations of weather (SYNOP reports) and other derived from radiosonde observations (RAOBs). The performance of the method has been evaluated under different climatic conditions, corresponding to three locations in Spain, where colocated rain gauge data were available. Rain events detected by the method have been compared with those precipitations identified by the rain gauge. The pertinence Received 26 June 2012, Accepted 31 July 2012, Scheduled 15 August 2012 * Corresponding author: Gustavo Adolfo Siles Soria (gsiles@grc.ssr.upm.es). 258 Siles et al. of the method is discussed on the basis of an analysis of cumulative distributions of total attenuation at 100 and 300 GHz. This study demonstrates that the proposed method can be useful to identify events probably associated to rainy conditions. Hence, it can be considered as a suitable algorithm in order to filter out this kind of events from annual attenuation statistics.

Simulating improved combinations tillage-rotation under dryland conditions.

Crop simulation models allow analyzing various tillage-rotation combinations and exploring management scenarios. This study was conducted to test the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) modelling system in rainfed semiarid central Spain. The focus is on the combined effect of tillage system and winter cereal-based rotations (cereal/legume/fallow) on the crop yield and soil quality. The observed data come from a 16-year field experiment. The CERES and CROPGRO models, included in DSSAT v4.5, were used to simulate crop growth and yield, and DSSAT- CENTURY was used in the soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil nitrogen (SN) simulations. Genetic coefficients were calibrated using part of the observed data. Field observations showed that barley grain yield was lower for continuous cereal (BB) than for vetch (VB) and fallow (FB) rotations for both tillage systems. The CERES-Barley model also reflected this trend. The model predicted higher yield in the conventional tillage (CT) than in the no tillage (NT) probably due to the higher nitrogen availability in the CT, shown in the simulations. The SOC and SN in the top layer only, were higher in NT than in CT, and decreased with depth in both simulated and observed values. These results suggest that CT-VB and CT-FB were the best combinations for the dry land conditions studied. However, CT presented lower SN and SOC content than NT. This study shows how models can be a useful tool for assessing and predicting crop growth and yield, under different management systems and under specific edapho-climatic conditions. Additional key words: CENTURY model; CERES-Barley; crop simulation models; DSSAT; sequential simula- tion; soil organic carbon.

Growth rate and TRI5 gene expression profiles of Fusarium equiseti strains isolated from Spanish cereals cultivated on wheat and barley media at different environmental conditions

Fusarium equiseti is a toxigenic species that often contaminates ce real crops from diverse climatic regions such as Northern and Southern Europe. Previous results suggested the existence of two distinct populations within this species with differences in toxin pro file which largely corresponded to North and South Europe (Spain). In this work, growth rate profiles of 4 F. equiseti strains isolated from different cereals and distinct Spanish regions were determined on wheat and barley based media at a range of temperatures (15, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40 °C) and water potentialregimens(−0.7,−2.8,−7.0,and −9.8MPa,correspondingto 0.99,0.98,0.95 and 0.93aw values).Growth was observed at all temperatures except at 40 °C, and at all the solute potential values except at−9.8 MPa when combined with 15 °C. Optimal growth was observed at 20– 30 °C and −0.7/−2.8 MPa. The effect of these factors on trichothecene biosynthesis was examined on a F. equiseti strain using a newly developed real time RT-PCR protocol to quantify TRI5 gene expression at 15, 25 and 35 °C and −0.7, −2.8, − 7.0 and −9.8 MPa on wheat and barley based media. Induction of TRI5 expression was detected between 25 and 35 °C and −0.7 and − 2.8 MPa, with maximum values at 35 °C and −2.8 MPa being higher in barley than in wheat medium. These results appeared to be consistent with a population well adapted to the present climatic conditions and predicted scenarios for Southern Europe and suggested some differences depending on the cereal considered. These are also discussed in relation to other Fusarium species co-occurring in cereals grown in this region and to their significance for prediction and control strategies of toxigenic risk in future scenarios of climate change for this region.

A numerical study of steady state evaporative conditions applied to mine tailings

The suction profile of a desiccating soil is dependent on the water table depth, the soil-water retention characteristics, and the climatic conditions. In this paper, an unsaturated flow model, which simulates both liquid and vapour flow, was used to investigate the effects of varying the water table depth and the evaporation rate on the evaporative fluxes from a desiccating tailings deposit under steady-state conditions. Results obtained showed that at a critical evaporation rate, beyond which evaporation is no longer dictated by climatic conditions, the matric suction profiles remain basically unchanged. The critical evaporation rate varies inversely with the water table depth. It is associated with the maximum evaporative flux that might be extracted from a soil at steady-state conditions. The time required to establish steady-state conditions is directly proportional to the water table depth, and it acquires a maximum value at the critical evaporation rate. A detailed investigation of the movement of the drying front demonstrated the significance of attaining a matric suction of about 3000 kPa on the contribution to flow in the vapour phase.

Effect of poor curing conditions and remedies on the durability of steel in concrete

An investigation was undertaken to study the effect of poor curing simulating hot climatic conditions and remedies on the durability of steel in concrete. Three different curing environments were used i.e. (1) Saturated Ca(OH)2 solution at 20°C, (2) Saturated Ca(OH)2 solution at 50°C and (3) Air at 50°C at 30% relative humidity. The third curing condition corresponding to the temperature and relative humidity typical of Middle Eastern Countries. The nature of the hardened cement paste matrix, cured under the above conditions was studied by means of Mercury Intrusion Porosimetry for measuring pore size distribution. The results were represented as total pore volume and initial pore entry diameter. The Scanning Electron Microscope was used to look at morphological changes during hydration, which were compared to the Mercury Intrusion Porosimetry results. X-ray defraction and Differential Thermal Analysis techniques were also employed for looking at any phase transformations. Polymer impregnation was used to reduce the porosity of the hardened cement pastes, especially in the case of the poorly cured samples. Carbonation rates of unimpregnated and impregnated cements were determined. Chloride diffusion studies were also undertaken to establish the effect of polymer impregnation and blending of the cements. Finally the corrosion behaviour of embedded steel bars was determined by the technique of Linear Polarisation. The steel was embedded in both untreated and polymer impregnated hardened cement pastes placed in either a solution containing NaCl or an environmental cabinet which provided carbonation at 40°C and 50% relative humidity.

A review on the assessment of stress conditions for simultaneous production of microalgal lipids and carotenoids

Microalgal species are potential resource of both biofuels and high-value metabolites, and their production is growth dependent. Growth parameters can be screened for the selection of novel microalgal species that produce molecules of interest. In this context our review confirms that, autotrophic and heterotrophic organisms have demonstrated a dual potential, namely the ability to produce lipids as well as value-added products (particularly carotenoids) under influence of various physico-chemical stresses on microalgae. Some species of microalgae can synthesize, besides some pigments, very-long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (VL-PUFA,>20C) such as docosahexaenoic acid and eicosapentaenoic acid, those have significant applications in food and health. Producing value-added by-products in addition to biofuels, fatty acid methyl esters (FAME), and lipids has the potential to improve microalgae-based biorefineries by employing either the autotrophic or the heterotrophic mode, which could be an offshoot of biotechnology. The review considers the potential of microalgae to produce a range of products and indicates future directions for developing suitable criteria for choosing novel isolates through bioprospecting large gene pool of microalga obtained from various habitats and climatic conditions.

Fire and climatic extremes shape mammal distributions in a fire-prone landscape

Aim: Extreme climatic events and large wildfires are predicted to increase as the world's climate warms. Understanding how they shape species' distributions will be critical for conserving biodiversity. We used a 7-year dataset of mammals collected during and after south-east Australia's Millennium Drought to assess the roles of fire history, climatic extremes and their interactions in shaping mammal distributions. Location: Grampians National Park, south-eastern Australia.

Methods: We surveyed mammals at 36 sites along a ~50-year post-fire chronosequence in each of the 7 years. We modelled ten mammal species in relation to fire history, productivity and recent rainfall. Next, we examined the consistency of species' fire response curves across each of three climatic phases relating to the Millennium Drought. Finally, we identified the optimal distribution of fire ages for small and medium-sized mammal conservation in each of the three climatic phases.

Results: The majority of species were influenced by fire history, and all native species were negatively associated with recently burned vegetation. Seven of ten species responded positively to the end of the Millennium Drought, but six of these declined quickly thereafter. Species' responses to fire history differed depending on the climatic conditions. However, the optimal distribution of fire-age classes consistently emphasized the importance of older age classes, regardless of climatic phase. This distribution is in stark contrast to the current distribution of fire ages across the study region.

Main conclusions: Mammals in the study region face an uncertain future. The negative impact of drought, the short-lived nature of post-drought recovery and, now, the possibility of a new drought beginning forewarn of further declines. The stark contrast between the optimal and current fire-age distributions means that reducing the incidence of further fires is critical to enhance the capacity of native mammal communities to weather an increasingly turbulent climate.

Using climatic suitability thresholds to identify past, present and future population viability

Often climatic niche models predict that any change in climatic conditions will impact species abundance or distribution. However, the accuracy of models that just incorporate climatic information to predict future species habitat use is widely debated. Alternatively, environmental conditions may simply need to be above some minimum threshold of climatic suitability, at which point, other factors drive population size. Using the example of nesting sites of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) in the Mediterranean (n = 105), we developed climatic niche models to examine whether a climatic suitability threshold could be identified as a climatic indicator in order for large populations of a widespread species to exist. We then assessed the climatic suitability of sites above and below this threshold in the past (∼1900) and future (∼2100). Most large sites that are currently above the climatic threshold were above the threshold in the past and future, particularly when future nesting seasonality shifted to start 1–2 months earlier. Our analyses highlight the importance of future phenological shifts for maintaining suitability. Our results provide a positive outlook for sea turtle conservation, suggesting that climatic conditions may remain suitable in the future at sites that currently support large nesting populations. Our study also provides an alternative way of interpreting the outputs of climatic niche models, by generating a threshold as an index of a minimum climatic suitability required to sustain large populations. This type of approach offers the possibility to benefit from information provided by climate-driven models, while reducing their inherent uncertainties.

Report : stochastic analysis of road asset data for maintenance cost prediction

Reliable budget/cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation are subjected to uncertainties and variability in road asset condition and characteristics of road users. The CRC CI research project 2003-029-C ‘Maintenance Cost Prediction for Road’ developed a method for assessing variation and reliability in budget/cost estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation. The method is based on probability-based reliable theory and statistical method. The next stage of the current project is to apply the developed method to predict maintenance/rehabilitation budgets/costs of large networks for strategic investment. The first task is to assess the variability of road data. This report presents initial results of the analysis in assessing the variability of road data. A case study of the analysis for dry non reactive soil is presented to demonstrate the concept in analysing the variability of road data for large road networks. In assessing the variability of road data, large road networks were categorised into categories with common characteristics according to soil and climatic conditions, pavement conditions, pavement types, surface types and annual average daily traffic. The probability distributions, statistical means, and standard deviation values of asset conditions and annual average daily traffic for each type were quantified. The probability distributions and the statistical information obtained in this analysis will be used to asset the variation and reliability in budget/cost estimates in later stage. Generally, we usually used mean values of asset data of each category as input values for investment analysis. The variability of asset data in each category is not taken into account. This analysis method demonstrated that it can be used for practical application taking into account the variability of road data in analysing large road networks for maintenance/rehabilitation investment analysis.

Preventing physical activity induced heat illness in school settings

The climatic conditions of tropical and subtropical regions within Australia present, at times, extreme risk of physical activity induced heat illness. Many administrators and teachers in school settings are aware of the general risks of heat related illness. In the absence of reliable information applied at the local level, there is a risk that inappropriate decisions may be made concerning school events that incorporate opportunities to be physically active. Such events may be prematurely cancelled resulting in the loss of necessary time for physical activity. Under high or extremely high risk conditions however, the absence of appropriate modifications or continuation could place the health of students, staff and other parties at risk. School staff and other key stakeholders should understand the mechanisms of escalating risk and be supported to undertake action to reduce the level of risk through appropriate policies, procedures, resources and action plans.