Monetary policy, exchange rates and stock prices in the Middle East region

A structural vector autoregressive model is employed to investigate the impact of monetary policy and real exchange rate shocks on the stock market performance of Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan. In order to identify the structural shocks both short run and long run restrictions are applied. Unlike previous literature the contemporaneous interdependence between the financial variables are left unrestricted to give a more accurate depiction of the relationships. The heterogeneity of the results reflect the different monetary policy frameworks and stock market characteristics of these countries. Mainly, monetary policy and the real exchange rate shocks have a significant short run impact on the stock prices of the countries that apply a relatively more independent monetary policy and flexible exchange rates.

Media ‘Globalization’ as Survival Strategy for Authoritarian Regimes In the Arab Middle East

Sakr challenges the notion that transnational media technologies have forced states in the Arab Middle East to cede ever more control to non-state players since the 1990s. Taking account of a long history of foreign political engineering in Arab countries, she probes the realities of Arab broadcasting privatization, intra-regional harmonization of government communication policies, and external financial support for media freedom and reform, to show how Arab governments were large successfully in harnessing forces implicated in media globalization in a way that entrenched authoritarian elements of the status quo. The findings validate an alternative to globalization theory that places a dual focus on the agency of national ruling elites and the international structures that underpin the power of those elites today, as in the past.

Cross-National Differences in Managerial Discretion: Insights from the Middle East

Our study examines the effect of cultural practices on CEO discretion across six Middle Eastern countries. Using a panel of senior management consultants, we extend the national-level framework of managerial discretion and find that an encompassing array of cultural practices play a crucial role in shaping the degree of discretion provided to CEOs’ of public firms headquartered in these countries. We empirically demonstrate that power distance, future and performance orientation along with gender egalitarianism and assertiveness have positive relationships with managerial discretion. However, institutional collectivism, uncertainty avoidance and humane orientation negatively affect the degree of discretion provided to CEOs. As such, our results indicate that executives are able to take idiosyncratic and bold actions to the extent to which the cultural environment allows them to do so. As such, we contribute to the strategic leadership literature by finding new national-level antecedents of managerial discretion that haven’t been considered in earlier studies and confirm the context dependency of the discretion construct.

The law and economics of good faith in the civil law of contract

Good faith plays a central role in most legal systems, yet appears to be an intractable concept. This article proposes to analyse it economically as the absence of opportunism in circumstances which lend themselves to it. One of the objectives underlying the law of contract on an economic view is to curtail opportunism. In spelling out what this means, the paper proposes a three-step test: bad faith is present where a substantial informational or other asymmetry exists between the parties, which one of them turns into an undue advantage, considered against the gains both parties could normally expect to realise through the contract, and where loss to the disadvantaged party is so serious as to provoke recourse to expensive self-protection, which significantly raises transactions costs in the market. The three-step test is then used to analyse a set of recent decisions in international commercial transactions and three concepts derived from good faith: fraud, warranty for latent defects and lesion.

The Law and Economics of the Civil Law of Mandate

Présentation à la Annual Law & Economics Conference 2007, Université de Bologne.

The Economics Of Civil Law Contract And Of Good Faith

Prepared for the Symposium in honour of Michael J. Trebilcock, 1-2 October 2009, in Toronto

The Civil Law Of Contract

Cet article sera publié dans Ghent Encyclopedia of Law and Economics, Gerrit De Geest (General Editor), 2nd edition, Cheltenham, Edward Elgar, 2010.

The Influence of ICC Arbitral Decisions on Canadian Law: Comparative Study between Civil Law and Common Law Jurisdictions

L’objectif de cette recherche est de démontrer que les décisions arbitrales de la Chambre de commerce internationale peuvent être considérées comme une source potentielle de droit au Canada. Il existe actuellement une incertitude quant au droit matériel utilisé en arbitrage international pour résoudre les différends commerciaux. Bien que l’utilisation de la lex mercatoria pour résoudre un litige soit une option, elle se heurte à de nombreuses incertitudes terminologiques et conceptuelles. L’utilisation d’une approche méthodologique de la lex mercatoria permettrait une classification de ses sources en deux branches: (1) le droit statutaire international et (2) le stare decisis des tribunaux d’arbitrage commercial international. Une telle approche méthodologique conférerait plus de certitude quant à l’application d’un droit uniforme. De plus, elle faciliterait l’étude de l’interlégalité entre les règles de la lex mercatoria et le droit matériel interne. Plus particulièrement, elle permet de comparer les similitudes et les différences des règles du droit matériel entre les décisions arbitrales internationales, le droit statutaire international et les juridictions canadiennes de common law et de droit civil. Cette comparaison rend possible une évaluation de l’influence potentielle des décisions arbitrales de la Chambre de commerce internationale sur le droit matériel canadien et si cette influence est plus importante en droit civil ou en common law.

Rainfall Climatology over Middle East Region and its Variability

A better understanding of the rainfall climatology of the Middle East region identifying the mechanisms responsible for the rain producing systems is essential for effective utilization of the water resources over the arid region. A comprehensive analysis on the rainfall climatology of the Middle East region is carried out to bring out the spatial and temporal variation of rainfall and mechanisms responsible for the rain events. The study was carried out utilizing rainfall, OLR, wind and humidity data sets procured from TRMM, NOAA and NCEP-NCAR. Climatology of annual rainfall brings out two areas of alarmingly low rainfall in the Middle East region: one in Egypt, Jordan and adjoining areas and the other in the southern part of Saudi Arabia. Daily rainfall analysis indicates that northern region gets rainfall mainly during winter and spring associated with the passage of Mediterranean low pressure systems whereas rain over the southern region is caused mainly by the monsoon organized convection, cross equatorial flow and remnants of low pressure systems associated with the monsoon during the summer season. Thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere reveals that the region does not have frequent local convection due to insufficient moisture content. The sinking motion associated with the sub tropic high pressure system and subsidence associated with the Walker circulation are responsible for maintaining warm and dry air over the region.