Previsão estocástica de nível fluviométrico para cidade de Marabá-PA: método de Box-Jenkins

O Município de Marabá- PA, situado na região Amazônica, sudeste do Estado do Pará, sofre anualmente com eventos de enchentes, ocasionados pelo aumento periódico do rio Tocantins e pela situação de vulnerabilidade da população que reside em áreas de risco. A defesa civil estadual e municipal anualmente planeja e prepara equipes para ações de defesa no município. Nesta fase o monitoramento e previsão de eventos de enchentes são importantes. Portanto, com o objetivo de diminuir erros nas previsões hidrológicas para o Município de Marabá, desenvolveu-se um modelo estocástico para previsão de nível do rio Tocantins, baseado na metodologia de Box e Jenkins. Utilizou os dados de níveis diários observados nas estações hidrológicas de Marabá e Carolina e Conceição do Araguaia da Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA), do período de 01/12/ 2008 a 31/03/2011. Efetuou-se o ajustamento de três modelos (M_t, N_t e Y_t), através de diferentes aplicativos estatísticos: o SAS e o Gretl, usando diferentes interpretações do comportamento das séries para gerar as equações dos modelos. A principal diferença entre os aplicativos é que no SAS usa o modelo de função de transferência na modelagem. Realizou-se uma classificação da variabilidade do nível do rio, através da técnica dos Quantis para o período de 1972 a 2011, examinando-se apenas as categorizações de níveis ACIMA e MUITO ACIMA do normal. Para análise de impactos socioeconômicos foram usados os dados das ações da Defesa Civil Estado do Pará nas cheias de 2009 e 2011. Os resultados mostraram que o número de eventos de cheias com níveis MUITO ACIMA do normal, geralmente, podem estar associados a eventos de La Niña. Outro resultado importante: os modelos gerados simularam muito bem o nível do rio para o período de sete dias (01/04/2011 a 07/04/2011). O modelo multivariado N_t (com pequenos erros) representou o comportamento da série original, subestimando os valores reais nos dias 3, 4 e 5 de abril de 2011, com erro máximo de 0,28 no dia 4. O modelo univariado (Y_t) teve bons resultados nas simulações com erros absolutos em torno de 0,12 m. O modelo com menor erro absoluto (0,08m) para o mesmo período foi o modelo M_t, desenvolvido pelo aplicativo SAS, que interpreta a série original como sendo não linear e não estacionária. A análise quantitativa dos impactos fluviométricos, ocorridos nas enchentes de 2009 e 2011 na cidade de Marabá, revelou em média que mais de 4 mil famílias sofrem com estes eventos, implicado em gastos financeiros elevados. Logo, conclui-se que os modelos de previsão de níveis são importantes ferramentas que a Defesa Civil, utiliza no planejamento e preparo de ações preventivas para o município de Marabá.

Diagnóstico de risco ambiental em áreas de vulnerabilidade da cidade de Marília (SP)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Mapeamento de áreas susceptíveis a sinistros climáticos no município de Rio Claro-SP

This work discourse on Civil Defense’ strategic planning and severe events in the city of Rio Claro – SP. In order to realize spatial analysis about its damages, registered by Civil Defense Department, it is being propose a methodological procedure by the use of Geographical Information System – Arc Gis 9.3.1. and another with SPRING 5.1.8.. The mapping of target areas and their impacts, during a period, have a great importance to the identification of possible risk areas as well as their use for logistic support to corps which is somehow involved to severe events and their victims, and to create a robust alert system

Análise da queda de granizo em Guarulhos-SP e seus impactos socioeconômicos

The climate and weather have direct implications on society, are factors that can to regulate or restrict human occupation in a determined space. In this way, studies of climate and weather are justified to be extremely necessary for urban planning and economic activities, especially agriculture. The precipitation of hail, which enters in the classification of severe storm, causes large, direct and indirect impacts on society, mainly when it occurs in urban areas. This work aims to study the precipitation of hail, explain what is a severe storms and how hail is formed in clouds, making use of a literature review in geography and also in weather sciences. It is also an aim of this work analyze the genesis, evolution and dissipation of a specific case of precipitation of hail occurred in the metropolitan region of São Paulo, especially in Guarulhos, on 21st of September 21 of 2010, through the use of GOES-12’ satellite’s images and the use of São Roque’s weather radar. And in this way, show the potential impact of hail storms in society and contribute to a greater preparedness of the population, urban planners associations and emergency management, such as municipalities, the civil defense and fireman

Considerações sobre as consequências dos Desastres Hidrometeorológicos no Brasil de 2009 a 2011

The disaster natural disaster stand as one of the greatest challenges of urban man. Cities are built and modeled as a function of economic and political issues, without respecting environmental characteristics. So it is possible to see through the data of the National Civil Defence large number of disasters occurring in Brazilian cities in the years 2009 to 2011, and in all were reported over 5000 occurrences of natural disasters over the years. The Brazilian public policy failures show up in issues of urban planning where to admit the allocation of people in inappropriate areas. Another issue to be considered is the non-response of the population to civil defense warnings, people often prefer to risk staying in high-risk areas for fear of being robbed while they are away, and end up not serving the notices given by the Civil Defense, increase thus the number of victims when in fact the weather event triggers natural disasters one

Análise das enchentes no estado de São Paulo durante a operação verão de 2000 a 2007

With increasing frequency and intensity of climate disasters in Brazil, it is necessary studies on mitigation measures. From this spatialization of areas considered risk becomes essential to assist the public in preventive plans. Floods and flooding are the main types of climatic disasters that hit our country, especially the state of Sao Paulo, mainly by self degree of urbanization. From the data provided by the State Civil Defense was possible to create a database with the localities georelacional occurrences of flooding in the state in which through techniques of GIS (Geographic Information System) enabled the interrelationship and spatialization occurrence of areas affected This will help to determine potential areas of risk and different ways to prevent these disasters

A gênese e a distribuição socioespacial das chuvas no município de Ubatuba-SP

This monograph aims to contribute to the understanding and analysis of extreme events and its correlation with anthropogenic actions, in order to understand the levels of human interference in the environment and to identify potential social and environmental damage that such events may result in Ubatuba, located on the northern coast of São Paulo state. Therefore, two strategies were established, on one hand, episodic analysis of extreme weather events, and on the other, the analysis of the impact of atmospheric phenomena in everyday society. In this case we gave greater emphasis to analysis years that had higher total rainfall. In this sense, the research was based on the standard deviation technique and percentages, which supported to characterize the exceptional rainy years, in addition, use of rhythm analysis technique that has helped to identify the active atmospheric systems. From a qualitative point of view, field works were carried out in order to make use of news by the local press and civil defense for years considered extreme (positive standard deviation). From this, it was analyzed how the extreme episodes of rainfall trigger repercussions in geographic space. Also the spatial distribution of rainfall were carried out by means of quantitative analysis of six rain gauges. It was found that the highest occurrences of impacts, are located in the central areas of the city, as well as the highest rainfall totals. In fact, Ubatuba/SP suffers from very high rainfall totals and has a singularity on the climate...

Mapeamento de ocorrências de eventos perigosos no município de Santos SP: integração com dados de vulnerabilidade socioambiental

This study is based on the mapping of occurrences associated with social vulnerability and natural risks, which refer to the resilience of populations and territories, regarding natural hazards associated with the functioning of natural systems (eg, earthquakes, flood, mass movements). According to UNISDR (2014), the state of São Paulo is a reference in working with Urban Resilience and Disaster in the Resilient Cities Campaign (2014), considering the high investment in Risk Areas Mapping and Public Education Campaigns implemented by the Civil Defense. Thus, this study aims to mapping the occurrence of events related to Tree Falls, Erosion, Landslides, Irregular Housing, Rocky Blocks Falls, Wall Falls, Unroofing and Irregular Construction, attended by the Civil Defense in the city of Santos, São Paulo State, from 2011 to 2014. Thereafter, correlated analyzes to the Environmental Vulnerabilities were generated. The Environmental Vulnerability databases used in this dissertation compose the results of the CNPQ Project - Environmental Vulnerability Mapping of the State of Sao Paulo - Brazil: a methodological contribution of Freitas (2013) and Bortolettoet al (2014), with information collected from the 2010 Census (IBGE, 2010), on a census sectors scale. The adopted methodological procedure involves document analysis followed by data integration in Geographic Information System, through algorithms analysis and mapscrossing.The results obtained in Maps of Social and Environmental Vulnerability Occurrences presented areas of High or Very High Vulnerability. The main variables obtained with such characteristics are Irregular Housing, Landslides and Rocky Blocks Falls, which was associated with hilly terrain formations, with slopes above 30%. To the areas of Medium, Low and Very Low Vulnerability were associated the variables Tree Falls, Wall Falls, Erosion, Unroofing and Irregular Construction, which are spatially distributed without an...

And blow not the trumpet, a prelude to peril.

"Notes and references": p. 298-304.

Radiological monitoring, instructor's guide.

Mode of access: Internet.

National school fallout shelter design competition awards:

Mode of access: Internet.

Management of medical problems resulting from population relocation : final report 44U-1000 /

Includes appendices.

DCPA attack environment manual /

Issued in chapters of ca. 54-70 p. each.

FEMA attack environment manual /

Errata slips reverse the titles of chapters 2 and 3 of the manual.

A community facilities center with fallout shelter as dual purpose space /

"The thirty-seventh annual competition of the Brooklyn Chapter of the American Institute of Architects."