Atlantic hurricanes and associated insurance loss potentials in future climate scenarios: limitations of high-resolution AGCM simulations

Potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics are among the more serious regional threats of global climate change. Therefore, a better understanding of how anthropogenic climate change may affect TCs and how these changes translate in socio-economic impacts is required. Here, we apply a TC detection and tracking method that was developed for ERA-40 data to time-slice experiments of two atmospheric general circulation models, namely the fifth version of the European Centre model of Hamburg model (MPI, Hamburg, Germany, T213) and the Japan Meteorological Agency/ Meteorological research Institute model (MRI, Tsukuba city, Japan, TL959). For each model, two climate simulations are available: a control simulation for present-day conditions to evaluate the model against observations, and a scenario simulation to assess future changes. The evaluation of the control simulations shows that the number of intense storms is underestimated due to the model resolution. To overcome this deficiency, simulated cyclone intensities are scaled to the best track data leading to a better representation of the TC intensities. Both models project an increased number of major hurricanes and modified trajectories in their scenario simulations. These changes have an effect on the projected loss potentials. However, these state-of-the-art models still yield contradicting results, and therefore they are not yet suitable to provide robust estimates of losses due to uncertainties in simulated hurricane intensity, location and frequency.

Panel 3: Encounters of Perpetrators and Victims of Genocides

Panel 3: Encounters of Perpetrators and Victims of Genocides Lina Nikou, University of Hamburg, Germany: “Coming Back Home? Berlin Presents Itself to Refugees of the Nazi Regime Living Abroad” Download paper (login required) Michelle Bellino, Harvard University: “Whose Past, Whose Present? Historical Memory among the ‘Postwar’ Generation in Guatemala” Download paper (login required) Srdjan Radovic, Belgrade University/Institute of Ethnography SASA, Serbia: “Memory Culture, Politics of Place, and Social Actors in the Remembrance of Belgrade's World War II Camp” Download paper (login required) Chair: Michael Nolte and Michael Geheran, Clark University Comment: Omer Bartov, Brown University

Panel 4: Transnational Memory of Mass Violence

Panel 4: Transnational Memory of Mass Violence Anne Waehrens, University of Copenhagen/Danish Institute for International Studies, Denmark: “Is There a Shared European memory? Holocaust Remembrance in the European Parliament after 1989" Download paper (login required) Ran Zwigenberg, City University of New York: “The Hiroshima-Auschwitz Peace March and the Globalization of Victimhood” Download paper (login required) Mark Zaurov, University of Hamburg, Germany: "The Current Situation of Human Rights for Deaf People with Respect to the Deaf Holocaust" Download paper (login required) Chair: Natalya Lazar and Jody Manning, Clark UniversityComment: Ken McLean, Clark University

Predicting the risk of hospital admission in older persons--validation of a brief self-administered questionnaire in three European countries

OBJECTIVES: To validate the Probability of Repeated Admission (Pra) questionnaire, a widely used self-administered tool for predicting future healthcare use in older persons, in three European healthcare systems. DESIGN: Prospective study with 1-year follow-up. SETTING: Hamburg, Germany; London, United Kingdom; Canton of Solothurn, Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: Nine thousand seven hundred thirteen independently living community-dwelling people aged 65 and older. MEASUREMENTS: Self-administered eight-item Pra questionnaire at baseline. Self-reported number of hospital admissions and physician visits during 1 year of follow-up. RESULTS: In the combined sample, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) were 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI)=0.62-0.66) for the prediction of one or more hospital admissions and 0.68 (95% CI=0.66-0.69) for the prediction of more than six physician visits during the following year. AUCs were similar between sites. In comparison, prediction models based on a person's age and sex alone exhibited poor predictive validity (AUC or= 0.5) were 2.3 times as likely (95% CI=2.1-2.6) as low-risk individuals to have a hospital admission, and 2.1 times as likely (95% CI=2.0-2.2) to have more than six physician visits. CONCLUSION: The Pra instrument exhibits good validity for predicting future health service use on a population level in different healthcare settings. Administrative data have shown similar predictive validity, but in practice, such data are often not available. The Pra is likely of high interest to governments and health insurance companies worldwide as a basis for programs aimed at health risk management in older persons.

The PRO-AGE study: an international randomised controlled study of health risk appraisal for older persons based in general practice

BACKGROUND: This paper describes the study protocol, the recruitment, and base-line data for evaluating the success of randomisation of the PRO-AGE (PRevention in Older people-Assessment in GEneralists' practices) project. METHODS/DESIGN: A group of general practitioners (GPs) in London (U.K.), Hamburg (Germany) and Solothurn (Switzerland) were trained in risk identification, health promotion, and prevention in older people. Their non-disabled older patients were invited to participate in a randomised controlled study. Participants allocated to the intervention group were offered the Health Risk Appraisal for Older Persons (HRA-O) instrument with a site-specific method for reinforcement (London: physician reminders in electronic medical record; Hamburg: one group session or two preventive home visits; Solothurn: six-monthly preventive home visits over a two-year period). Participants allocated to the control group received usual care. At each site, an additional group of GPs did not receive the training, and their eligible patients were invited to participate in a concurrent comparison group. Primary outcomes are self-reported health behaviour and preventative care use at one-year follow-up. In Solothurn, an additional follow-up was conducted at two years. The number of older persons agreeing to participate (% of eligible persons) in the randomised controlled study was 2503 (66.0%) in London, 2580 (53.6%) in Hamburg, and 2284 (67.5%) in Solothurn. Base-line findings confirm that randomisation of participants was successful, with comparable characteristics between intervention and control groups. The number of persons (% of eligible) enrolled in the concurrent comparison group was 636 (48.8%) in London, 746 (35.7%) in Hamburg, and 1171 (63.0%) in Solothurn. DISCUSSION: PRO-AGE is the first large-scale randomised controlled trial of health risk appraisal for older people in Europe. Its results will inform about the effects of implementing HRA-O with different methods of reinforcement.

Geriatric Pain Measure short form: development and initial evaluation

OBJECTIVES: To develop and evaluate a short form of the 24-item Geriatric Pain Measure (GPM) for use in community-dwelling older adults. DESIGN: Derivation and validation of a 12-item version of the GPM in a European and an independent U.S. sample of community-dwelling older adults. SETTING: Three community-dwelling sites in London, United Kingdom; Hamburg, Germany; Solothurn, Switzerland; and two ambulatory geriatrics clinics in Los Angeles, California. PARTICIPANTS: European sample: 1,059 community-dwelling older persons from three sites (London, UK; Hamburg, Germany; Solothurn, Switzerland); validation sample: 50 persons from Los Angeles, California, ambulatory geriatric clinics. MEASUREMENTS: Multidimensional questionnaire including self-reported demographic and clinical information. RESULTS: Based on item-to-total scale correlations in the European sample, 11 of 24 GPM items were selected for inclusion in the short form. One additional item (pain-related sleep problems) was included based on clinical relevance. In the validation sample, the Cronbach alpha of GPM-12 was 0.92 (individual subscale range 0.77-0.92), and the Pearson correlation coefficient (r) between GPM-12 and the original GPM was 0.98. The correlation between the GPM-12 and the McGill Pain Questionnaire was 0.63 (P<.001), similar to the correlation between the original GPM and the McGill Pain Questionnaire (Pearson r=0.63; P<.001). Exploratory factor analysis indicated that the GPM-12 covers three subfactors (pain intensity, pain with ambulation, disengagement because of pain). CONCLUSION: The GPM-12 demonstrated good validity and reliability in these European and U.S. populations of older adults. Despite its brevity, the GPM-12 captures the multidimensional nature of pain in three subscales. The self-administered GPM-12 may be useful in the clinical assessment process and management of pain and in pain-related research in older persons.

Development, feasibility and performance of a health risk appraisal questionnaire for older persons

BACKGROUND: Health risk appraisal is a promising method for health promotion and prevention in older persons. The Health Risk Appraisal for the Elderly (HRA-E) developed in the U.S. has unique features but has not been tested outside the United States. METHODS: Based on the original HRA-E, we developed a scientifically updated and regionally adapted multilingual Health Risk Appraisal for Older Persons (HRA-O) instrument consisting of a self-administered questionnaire and software-generated feed-back reports. We evaluated the practicability and performance of the questionnaire in non-disabled community-dwelling older persons in London (U.K.) (N = 1090), Hamburg (Germany) (N = 804), and Solothurn (Switzerland) (N = 748) in a sub-sample of an international randomised controlled study. RESULTS: Over eighty percent of invited older persons returned the self-administered HRA-O questionnaire. Fair or poor self-perceived health status and older age were correlated with higher rates of non-return of the questionnaire. Older participants and those with lower educational levels reported more difficulty in completing the HRA-O questionnaire as compared to younger and higher educated persons. However, even among older participants and those with low educational level, more than 80% rated the questionnaire as easy to complete. Prevalence rates of risks for functional decline or problems were between 2% and 91% for the 19 HRA-O domains. Participants' intention to change health behaviour suggested that for some risk factors participants were in a pre-contemplation phase, having no short- or medium-term plans for change. Many participants perceived their health behaviour or preventative care uptake as optimal, despite indications of deficits according to the HRA-O based evaluation. CONCLUSION: The HRA-O questionnaire was highly accepted by a broad range of community-dwelling non-disabled persons. It identified a high number of risks and problems, and provided information on participants' intention to change health behaviour.

The self-administered 24-item geriatric pain measure (GPM-24-SA): psychometric properties in three European populations of community-dwelling older adults

OBJECTIVE: To explore the feasibility and psychometric properties of a self-administered version of the 24-item Geriatric Pain Measure (GPM-24-SA). DESIGN: Secondary analysis of baseline data from the Prevention in Older People-Assessment in Generalists' practices trial, an international multi-center study of a health-risk appraisal system. PARTICIPANTS: One thousand seventy-two community dwelling nondisabled older adults self-reporting pain from London, UK; Hamburg, Germany; and Solothurn, Switzerland. OUTCOME MEASURES: GPM-24-SA as part of a multidimensional Health Risk Appraisal Questionnaire including self-reported demographic and health-related information. RESULTS: Among the 1,072 subjects, 655 had complete GPM-24-SA data, 404 had 30% missing GPM-24-SA data. In psychometric analyses across the three European populations with complete GPM-24-SA data, the measure exhibited stable internal consistency, good convergent, divergent and discriminant validity, and produced stable pain measurements. However, factor analysis indicated differences in the GPM-24-SA across sites with discrepancies mainly related to items of a single subscale that failed to load appropriately. Analyses including imputation for subjects with

Preclinical disability as a risk factor for falls in community-dwelling older adults

BACKGROUND: Falls are common and serious problems in older adults. The goal of this study was to examine whether preclinical disability predicts incident falls in a European population of community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: Secondary data analysis was performed on a population-based longitudinal study of 1644 community-dwelling older adults living in London, U.K.; Hamburg, Germany; Solothurn, Switzerland. Data were collected at baseline and 1-year follow-up using a self-administered multidimensional health risk appraisal questionnaire, including validated questions on falls, mobility disability status (high function, preclinical disability, task difficulty), and demographic and health-related characteristics. Associations were evaluated using bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Overall incidence of falls was 24%, and increased by worsening mobility disability status: high function (17%), preclinical disability (32%), task difficulty (40%), test-of-trend p <.003. In multivariate analysis adjusting for other fall risk factors, preclinical disability (odds ratio [OR] = 1.7, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-2.5), task difficulty (OR = 1.7, 95% CI, 1.1-2.6) and history of falls (OR = 4.7, 95% CI, 3.5-6.3) were the strongest significant predictors of falls. In stratified multivariate analyses, preclinical disability equally predicted falls in participants with (OR = 1.7, 95% CI, 1.0-3.0) and without history of falls (OR = 1.8, 95% CI, 1.1-3.0). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides longitudinal evidence that self-reported preclinical disability predicts incident falls at 1-year follow-up independent of other self-reported fall risk factors. Multidimensional geriatric assessment that includes preclinical disability may provide a unique early warning system as well as potential targets for intervention.

Neighbourhoods Mobilise the Troops - Community Organising, Violence and Governmentality

The article reflects on the difficult relation between community work against domestic violence and local crime prevention under the conditions of the neoliberal state that cuts down on social benefits and promotes self-help, active citizenship and self-responsibility instead while at the same time restoring the punishing state with its strict regime of law-and-order. The author describes a project Tarantula - she started herself while being a social worker in Hamburg, Germany. Tarantula was aimed at strengthening social networks and the neighbours' willingness to get involved in favour of affected women. Although conceptualized as an emancipatory approach referring to community organizing in the tradition of social movements it is questionable whether and how this can really work in the current situation. At present, the field of crime control is being reconfigured as a result of political and administrative decisions, which, for their part, are based on a new structure of social relations and cultural attitudes. The demolition of the 'welfare state' means the re-coding of the security policy that facilitates the development of interventionist techniques that govern and control individuals through their own ability to act.