972 resultados para Change-point


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This study presents novel evidence that N-15 natural abundance can be used as a robust indicator to detect pollutant nitrogen in natural plant communities. Vegetation from the heavily polluted industrial area of Cubatao in Sao Paulo State, SE Brazil, was strongly N-15 depleted compared to plants at remote sites. Historic herbarium samples from Cubatao were significantly less N-15 depleted than extant plants, indicating that N-15 depletion of vegetation is associated with present-day nitrogen pollution in Cubatao. The heavy load of nitrogenous atmospheric pollutants in Cubatao provides a nitrogen source for plants, and strongly N-15 depleted air NH3 is likely to contribute to plant and soil N-15 depletion. Epiphytic plants from Cubatao were extremely N-15 depleted (average -10.9parts per thousand) contrasting with epiphytes at remote sites (averages -1.0parts per thousand and -3.0parts per thousand). Nitrogen isotope composition of vegetation provides a tool to determine input of pollutant nitrogen into plant communities. The strong isotopic change of epiphytes suggests that epiphytes are particularly sensitive biomonitors for atmospheric pollutant nitrogen.

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Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente, Perfil Gestão e Sistemas Ambientais

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The aim is to examine the temporal trends of hip fracture incidence in Portugal by sex and age groups, and explore the relation with anti-osteoporotic medication. From the National Hospital Discharge Database, we selected from 1st January 2000 to 31st December 2008, 77,083 hospital admissions (77.4% women) caused by osteoporotic hip fractures (low energy, patients over 49 years-age), with diagnosis codes 820.x of ICD 9-CM. The 2001 Portuguese population was used as standard to calculate direct age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) (100,000 inhabitants). Generalized additive and linear models were used to evaluate and quantify temporal trends of age specific rates (AR), by sex. We identified 2003 as a turning point in the trend of ASIR of hip fractures in women. After 2003, the ASIR in women decreased on average by 10.3 cases/100,000 inhabitants, 95% CI (− 15.7 to − 4.8), per 100,000 anti-osteoporotic medication packages sold. For women aged 65–69 and 75–79 we identified the same turning point. However, for women aged over 80, the year 2004 marked a change in the trend, from an increase to a decrease. Among the population aged 70–74 a linear decrease of incidence rate (95% CI) was observed in both sexes, higher for women: − 28.0% (− 36.2 to − 19.5) change vs − 18.8%, (− 32.6 to − 2.3). The abrupt turning point in the trend of ASIR of hip fractures in women is compatible with an intervention, such as a medication. The trends were different according to gender and age group, but compatible with the pattern of bisphosphonates sales.

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Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

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Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

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The primary purpose of this exploratory empirical study is to examine the structural stability of a limited number of alternative explanatory factors of strategic change. On the basis of theoretical arguments and prior empirical evidence from two traditional perspectives, we propose an original empirical framework to analyse whether these potential explanatory factors have remained stable over time in a highly turbulent environment. This original question is explored in a particular setting: the population of Spanish private banks. The firms of this industry have experienced a high level of strategic mobility as a consequence of fundamental changes undergone in their environmental conditions over the last two decades (mainly changes related to the new banking and financial regulation process). Our results consistently support that the effect of most explanatory factors of strategic mobility considered did not remain stable over the whole period of analysis. From this point of view, the study sheds new light on major debates and dilemmas in the field of strategy regarding why firms change their competitive patterns over time and, hence, to what extent the "contextdependency" of alternative views of strategic change as their relative validation can vary over time for a given population. Methodologically, this research makes two major contributions to the study of potential determinants of strategic change. First, the definition and measurement of strategic change employing a new grouping method, the Model-based Cluster Method or MCLUST. Second, in order to asses the possible effect of determinants of strategic mobility we have controlled the non-observable heterogeneity using logistic regression models for panel data.

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Among PET radiotracers, FDG seems to be quite accepted as an accurate oncology diagnostic tool, frequently helpful also in the evaluation of treatment response and in radiation therapy treatment planning for several cancer sites. To the contrary, the reliability of Choline as a tracer for prostate cancer (PC) still remains an object of debate for clinicians, including radiation oncologists. This review focuses on the available data about the potential impact of Choline-PET in the daily clinical practice of radiation oncologists managing PC patients. In summary, routine Choline-PET is not indicated for initial local T staging, but it seems better than conventional imaging for nodal staging and for all patients with suspected metastases. In these settings, Choline-PET showed the potential to change patient management. A critical limit remains spatial resolution, limiting the accuracy and reliability for small lesions. After a PSA rise, the problem of the trigger PSA value remains crucial. Indeed, the overall detection rate of Choline-PET is significantly increased when the trigger PSA, or the doubling time, increases, but higher PSA levels are often a sign of metastatic spread, a contraindication for potentially curable local treatments such as radiation therapy. Even if several published data seem to be promising, the current role of PET in treatment planning in PC patients to be irradiated still remains under investigation. Based on available literature data, all these issues are addressed and discussed in this review.

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This article sets out a theoretical framework for the study of organisational change within political alliances. To achieve this objective it uses as a starting point a series of premises, the most notable of which include the definition of organisational change as a discrete, complex and focussed phenomenon of changes in power within the party. In accordance with these premises, it analyses the synthetic model of organisational change proposed by Panebianco (1988). After examining its limitations, a number of amendments are proposed to adapt it to the way political alliances operate. The above has resulted in the design of four new models. In order to test its validity and explanatory power in a preliminary manner, the second part looks at the organisational change of the UDC within the CiU alliance between 1978 and 2001. The discussion and conclusions reached demonstrate the problems of determinism of the Panebianco model and suggest, tentatively, the importance of the power balance within the alliance as a key factor.

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OBJECTIVES: To explore the relationship between patient's intention to change regarding future alcohol consumption following brief alcohol intervention (BAI) and changes in alcohol consumption 12-months later and the communication characteristics between patient and counselor during BAI. DESIGN, SETTING AND SUBJECTS: Data from 367 patients (experimental arm) of a pragmatic randomized controlled trial were used to assess the effectiveness of BAI among hazardous drinkers attending an Emergency Department (Lausanne University Hospital, Lausanne, Switzerland). Alcohol outcome measures at baseline and 12 months follow-up included usual number of drinks per week, monthly frequency of heavy episodic drinking (5 or more standard drinks for men; 4 or more for women), and the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) score. In addition, the communication characteristics between patient and counselor were analyzed via tape recordings using the Motivational Interviewing Skill Code (MISC) from 97 participants. Patient readiness and importance to change on a 10-point Likert scale (readiness/importance to change ruler) was asked during BAI, and patient intention to change alcohol consumption (yes/no) was asked at the last step. Differences in alcohol outcome at follow-up between the 367 patients who did or did not have an intention to change consumption at baseline were compared, as were differences between these two groups in communication characteristics for the 97 who completed tape recordings. RESULTS: Patients with an intention to decrease alcohol consumption reduced alcohol use and related problems more often, and reported higher levels of importance and readiness to change than did their counterparts. Analyses of MISC-coded data showed a significantly higher use of MI-consistent skills among those with a moderation intention, but no group differences on the 8 other counselor communication skills measures were found. Analyses of patient speech during the intervention indicated that those with an intention to change their alcohol consumption significantly more often self-explored personal ambivalence towards alcohol, expressed more intensely their ability, commitment, desire, need and reason to change their alcohol use than did those in the no decrease group. CONCLUSIONS: The intention expressed by hazardous drinkers when concluding BAI is associated with both patient change talk during BAI and drinking outcome 12 months later, but is mainly independent of counselor communication skills. This intention may be an important clinical indicator of which hazardous drinkers are most likely to improve after BAI.

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BACKGROUND: Management of blood pressure (BP) in acute ischemic stroke is controversial. The present study aims to explore the association between baseline BP levels and BP change and outcome in the overall stroke population and in specific subgroups with regard to the presence of arterial hypertensive disease and prior antihypertensive treatment. METHODS: All patients registered in the Acute STroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne (ASTRAL) between 2003 and 2009 were analyzed. Unfavorable outcome was defined as modified Rankin score more than 2. A local polynomial surface algorithm was used to assess the effect of BP values on outcome in the overall population and in predefined subgroups. RESULTS: Up to a certain point, as initial BP was increasing, optimal outcome was seen with a progressively more substantial BP decrease over the next 24-48 h. Patients without hypertensive disease and an initially low BP seemed to benefit from an increase of BP. In patients with hypertensive disease, initial BP and its subsequent changes seemed to have less influence on clinical outcome. Patients who were previously treated with antihypertensives did not tolerate initially low BPs well. CONCLUSION: Optimal outcome in acute ischemic stroke may be determined not only by initial BP levels but also by the direction and magnitude of associated BP change over the first 24-48 h.

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BACKGROUND: The course of alcohol consumption and cognitive dimensions of behavior change (readiness to change, importance of changing and confidence in ability to change) in primary care patients are not well described. The objective of the study was to determine changes in readiness, importance and confidence after a primary care visit, and 6-month improvements in both drinking and cognitive dimensions of behavior change, in patients with unhealthy alcohol use. METHODS: Prospective cohort study of patients with unhealthy alcohol use visiting primary care physicians, with repeated assessments of readiness, importance, and confidence (visual analogue scale (VAS), score range 1-10 points). Improvements 6 months later were defined as no unhealthy alcohol use or any increase in readiness, importance, or confidence. Regression models accounted for clustering by physician and adjusted for demographics, alcohol consumption and related problems, and discussion with the physician about alcohol. RESULTS: From before to immediately after the primary care physician visit, patients (n = 173) had increases in readiness (mean +1.0 point), importance (+0.2), and confidence (+0.5) (all p < 0.002). In adjusted models, discussion with the physician about alcohol was associated with increased readiness (+0.8, p = 0.04). At 6 months, many participants had improvements in drinking or readiness (62%), drinking or importance (58%), or drinking or confidence (56%). CONCLUSION: Readiness, importance and confidence improve in many patients with unhealthy alcohol use immediately after a primary care visit. Six months after a visit, most patients have improvements in either drinking or these cognitive dimensions of behavior change.

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Résumé En Suisse, les programmes de désaccoutumance au tabac se réfèrent généralement au modèle de préparation au changement de Prochaska et DiClemente (1983), Les patients atteints de maladies somatiques liées au tabagisme comme les pathologies cardiovasculaires ou pulmonaires accèdent facilement à ces programmes, contrairement aux patients présentant une dépendance à des drogues illicites. La prévalence de fumeurs dans cette population est pourtant élevée et les problèmes engendrés par le tabac sont importants, non seulement d'un point de vue individuel mais aussi en terme de santé publique. Il est par conséquent intéressant d'évaluer la motivation concernant la désaccoutumance au tabac de patients toxicomanes entreprenant un sevrage de drogues illicites. Dans cette étude, nous avons évalué les stades de préparation au changement concernant la dépendance au tabac chez 100 patients toxicomanes hospitalisés sur un mode volontaire dans le cadre d'un programme de sevrage à des drogues illégales. L'évaluation s'est faite à l'aide d'un auto-questionnaire dont les résultats indiquent qu'une minorité de patients sont décidés à interrompre la consommation de tabac. En effet, seul 15% des patients se trouvaient aux stades de contemplation ou de décision. De plus, 93% des sujets considéraient l'arrêt du tabac comme difficile ou très difficile. Ces données montrent qu'il existe un décalage important entre la motivation relative au sevrage de drogues illégales et la motivation liées à l'arrêt du tabac. En effet, malgré leur motivation élevée pour se sevrer de drogues illicites, la proportion de patients restant au stade de précontemplation concernant la désaccoutumance au tabac reste élevée. Diverses hypothèses permettent d'expliquer ces résultats, notamment la perception que la désaccoutumance au tabac est plus difficile à réaliser que le sevrage de substances illicites. Abstract Nicotine cessation programmes in Switzerland, which are commonly based on the stage of change model of Prochaska and DiClemente (1983), are rarely offered to patients with illicit drug dependence. This stands in contrast to the high smoking rates and the heavy burden of tobacco-related problems in these patients. The stage of change was therefore assessed by self-administered questionnaire in 100 inpatients attending an illegal drug withdrawal programme. Only 15% of the patients were in the contemplation or decision stage. 93% considered smoking cessation to be difficult or very difficult. These data show a discrepancy between the motivation to change illegal drug consumption habits and the motivation for smoking cessation. The high pro-portion of patients remaining in the precontemplation stage for smoking cessation, in spite of their motivation for illicit drug detoxification, may be due to the perception that cessation of smoking is more difficult than illicit drug abuse cessation.

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The estrogen receptor (ER) stimulates transcription of target genes by means of its two transcriptional activation domains, AF-1 in the N-terminal part of the receptor and AF-2 in its ligand-binding domain. AF-2 activity is dependent upon a putative amphipathic alpha-helix between residues 538 and 552 in the mouse ER. Point mutagenesis of conserved hydrophobic residues within this region reduces estrogen-dependent transcriptional activation without affecting hormone and DNA binding significantly. Here we show that these mutations dramatically alter the pharmacology of estrogen antagonists. Both tamoxifen and ICI 164,384 behave as strong agonists in HeLa cells expressing the ER mutants. In contrast to the wild-type ER, the mutant receptors maintain nuclear localization and DNA-binding activity after ICI 164,384 treatment. Structural alterations in AF-2 caused by gene mutations such as those described herein or by estrogen-independent signaling pathways may account for the insensitivity of some breast cancers to tamoxifen treatment.

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This research project aimed the following goal: promote the creation, use and disclosure of OER in a Group of Schools, involving schools and teachers from different learning levels, expecting to test and validate the use of OER, in a learning-teaching model towards curricular innovation. Defining as a starting point different subjects and teachers from distinct academic areas, we have implemented a set of activities leading to the creation of OER supported, when possible, in FLOSS tools. We adopted an action research methodology with a dual purpose: to act within a community of teachers and students, while increasing at the same time their knowledge, as well as the researcher's. The activity was developed cooperatively in order to process a certain reality of the teaching-learning process, through practical/reflective action towards it and inducing its implementation by others in the Portuguese School System, based on the production and sharing OER.

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Extended-spectrum β-lactamases (ESBLs) form a heterogeneous group that share the property of hydrolytic activity against the oxyimino-β-lactams while remaining susceptible to inhibition by β-lactamase inhibitors, such as clavulanic acid. From a clinical point of view, they are important because they confer resistance to penicillins, aztreonam, and cephalosporins, and ESBL-producing organisms are typically also resistant to aminoglycosides, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, and quinolones [1]. Until recently, the main problem posed by ESBLs was related to nosocomial outbreaks caused by ESBL-producing Klebsiella species. These outbreaks are usually clonal, the strains are mainly spread through cross-transmission, and the risk factors are similar to those found for other multidrug-resistant nosocomial pathogens [2]. In Europe and the United States, most ESBL-producing Klebsiella isolates harbored enzymes belonging to the TEM and SHV families [3]. Detection of colonized patients by performing surveillance cultures within affected units, isolation precautions for colonized patients, and restriction of oxyimino-β-lactam use are frequently useful for the control of these outbreaks [1]. There is no evidence that hospital-acquired ESBL-producing klebsiellae are decreasing in importance—in fact, data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that 20.6% of Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates from United States intensive care units in 2003 were probable producers of ESBL [4]. This represented a 47% increase, compared with the preceding 5 years. However, during the last few years, an impressive increase in the number of ESBL-producing Escherichia coli (and, less frequently, other Enterobacteriaceae) is being described in several parts of the world [5–8]. This emergent phenomenon shows some differences from the problem posed by Klebsiella species; many of these ESBL-producing E. coli are isolated …