Climate change

This chapter presents a broad overview of understanding of climate change over the past century or so, together with a discussion of some of the uncertainties. It provides a background to the developments in understanding of climate change, presents evidence that climate has changed and assesses the mechanisms that cause climate change, with a particular emphasis on those due to human activity. The concepts underlying climate modelling are introduced and results are then presented that strongly support the view that human activity has played a major role in the observed climate change over the past 50 years. Possible changes in climate over the coming century are then discussed.

Inconsistent-tolerant base revision through Argument Theory Change

Reasoning and change over inconsistent knowledge bases (KBs) is of utmost relevance in areas like medicine and law. Argumentation may bring the possibility to cope with both problems. Firstly, by constructing an argumentation framework (AF) from the inconsistent KB, we can decide whether to accept or reject a certain claim through the interplay among arguments and counterarguments. Secondly, by handling dynamics of arguments of the AF, we might deal with the dynamics of knowledge of the underlying inconsistent KB. Dynamics of arguments has recently attracted attention and although some approaches have been proposed, a full axiomatization within the theory of belief revision was still missing. A revision arises when we want the argumentation semantics to accept an argument. Argument Theory Change (ATC) encloses the revision operators that modify the AF by analyzing dialectical trees-arguments as nodes and attacks as edges-as the adopted argumentation semantics. In this article, we present a simple approach to ATC based on propositional KBs. This allows to manage change of inconsistent KBs by relying upon classical belief revision, although contrary to it, consistency restoration of the KB is avoided. Subsequently, a set of rationality postulates adapted to argumentation is given, and finally, the proposed model of change is related to the postulates through the corresponding representation theorem. Though we focus on propositional logic, the results can be easily extended to more expressive formalisms such as first-order logic and description logics, to handle evolution of ontologies.

Double Take Project: Using Applied Theatre For Campus Climate Change

Despite research gathered in the Campus Climate Report, I believe that it underrepresented the student experience of the social scene. The document primarily served as an identification tool for four major problems on campus: binge drinking, sexual assault, diversity, and disengagement in the classroom. Double Take Project also identifies similar issues however, this project uses theatrical techniques to gather the anecdotal reality of the student perspective. Double Take Project expands beyond the Campus Climate Report to inspire dialogue in a variety of student-to-student interactions and, more importantly, the project seeks action and solution plans. The social scene dominates our culture and its many issues result in concern for the safety, self-identity, and development of Bucknell students into thriving adults. Double Take Project is rooted in the belief that theatre is a palpable tool for social change. Over the course of many events, Double Take Project has utilized facets of theatre to provide opportunities to voice discontent, widen perception of normalcy on campus, and inspire confidence to act on personal beliefs. The Double Take Project uses many Applied Theatre methods to impact the social scene. For example, I conducted 36 student interviews and transformed the stories into a one-woman show, Rage Behind Curtains, which I performed at multiple venues across campus. I also used interviews to create a radio show airing one story per day. I conducted ten workshops with student groups, Fraternities and Sororities, and in the classroom utilizing Augusto Boal’s Theatre of the Oppressed (TO) techniques. I also created a “social scene confessional” where I stood outside the Elaine Langone Center with a sign that read, “Tell me a story about the social scene” from a wide variety of Bucknell students. Finally, I have assembled a Forum Theatre Company based on Augusto Boal’s method of the spect-actor, utilizing participants as both actors and spectators in the theatre piece. All of the names indicated in this paper have been altered to protect the identity of the participants. While planning events and conducting various theatrical experiences, I learned that there are a series of internal and external issues contributing to our social environment. Internally, students are conflicted with personal beliefs while battling outward social pressure. Whether they are on the outskirts or center of the social scene determines their response to this conflict. For example, I have discovered that students on the borders of the social culture respond with criticism because they feel excluded, whereas the student’s centrally involved critique the culture in private and while their persona appears to not want change. Externally, there are many structural issues that contribute to the current social climate such as without Fraternity meal plans, Cafeteria space is not sufficient to feed all of the students, exclusive party culture, and gendered housing. Through meetings with Deans and staff, I have learned there are also problems between administration and students, resulting in resentment and blame. Although addressing structural issues would instigate immediate change, in my opinion, internal student conflicts are the primary cause for the current negative social atmosphere. I believe that pressure to conform is rooted in lack of personal identity. Because students simply do not know themselves, they form strong social groups that become the definition of themselves. Without confident self-awareness, large and powerful groups coerce students to accept social norms resulting in the individual’s outward distaste for change, yet internal discomfort.

Infection prevention strategies in a stem cell transplant unit: impact of change of care in isolation practice and routine use of high dose intravenous immunoglobulins on infectious complications and transplant related mortality

OBJECTIVE: Nursing in 'live islands' and routine high dose intravenous immunoglobulins after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation were abandoned by many teams in view of limited evidence and high costs. METHODS: This retrospective single-center study examines the impact of change from nursing in 'live islands' to care in single rooms (SR) and from high dose to targeted intravenous immunoglobulins (IVIG) on mortality and infection rate of adult patients receiving an allogeneic stem cell or bone marrow transplantation in two steps and three time cohorts (1993-1997, 1997-2000, 2000-2003). RESULTS: Two hundred forty-eight allogeneic hematopoetic stem cell transplantations were performed in 227 patients. Patient characteristics were comparable in the three cohorts for gender, median age, underlying disease, and disease stage, prophylaxis for graft versus host disease (GvHD) and cytomegalovirus constellation. The incidence of infections (78.4%) and infection rates remained stable (rates/1000 days of neutropenia for sepsis 17.61, for pneumonia 6.76). Cumulative incidence of GvHD and transplant-related mortality did not change over time. CONCLUSIONS: Change from nursing in 'live islands' to SR and reduction of high dose to targeted IVIG did not result in increased infection rates or mortality despite an increase in patient age. These results support the current practice.

Paleoclimate data-model comparison and the role of climate forcings over the past 1500 years

The past 1500 years provide a valuable opportunity to study the response of the climate system to external forcings. However, the integration of paleoclimate proxies with climate modeling is critical to improving the understanding of climate dynamics. In this paper, a climate system model and proxy records are therefore used to study the role of natural and anthropogenic forcings in driving the global climate. The inverse and forward approaches to paleoclimate data–model comparison are applied, and sources of uncertainty are identified and discussed. In the first of two case studies, the climate model simulations are compared with multiproxy temperature reconstructions. Robust solar and volcanic signals are detected in Southern Hemisphere temperatures, with a possible volcanic signal detected in the Northern Hemisphere. The anthropogenic signal dominates during the industrial period. It is also found that seasonal and geographical biases may cause multiproxy reconstructions to overestimate the magnitude of the long-term preindustrial cooling trend. In the second case study, the model simulations are compared with a coral δ18O record from the central Pacific Ocean. It is found that greenhouse gases, solar irradiance, and volcanic eruptions all influence the mean state of the central Pacific, but there is no evidence that natural or anthropogenic forcings have any systematic impact on El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The proxy climate relationship is found to change over time, challenging the assumption of stationarity that underlies the interpretation of paleoclimate proxies. These case studies demonstrate the value of paleoclimate data–model comparison but also highlight the limitations of current techniques and demonstrate the need to develop alternative approaches.

Valuation of ecosystem goods and services. Part 2: Implications of unpredictable novel change

This is the second part of a two-part paper which offers a new approach to the valuation of ecosystem goods and services. In the first part a simple pre-industrial model was introduced to show how the interdependencies between the three subsystems, society, economy and nature, influence values, and how values change over time. In this second part the assumption of perfect foresight is dropped. I argue that due to novelty and complexity ex ante unpredictable change occurs within the three subsystems society, economy and nature. Again the simple pre-industrial model, which was introduced in part 1, serves as a simple paradigm to show how unpredictable novel change limits the possibility to derive accurate estimates of values.

Evaluation of PRESAGE® dosimeters for brachytherapy sources and the 3D dosimetry and characterization of the new AgX100 125I seed model

With continuous new improvements in brachytherapy source designs and techniques, method of 3D dosimetry for treatment dose verifications would better ensure accurate patient radiotherapy treatment. This study was aimed to first evaluate the 3D dose distributions of the low-dose rate (LDR) Amersham 6711 OncoseedTM using PRESAGE® dosimeters to establish PRESAGE® as a suitable brachytherapy dosimeter. The new AgX100 125I seed model (Theragenics Corporation) was then characterized using PRESAGE® following the TG-43 protocol. PRESAGE® dosimeters are solid, polyurethane-based, 3D dosimeters doped with radiochromic leuco dyes that produce a linear optical density response to radiation dose. For this project, the radiochromic response in PRESAGE® was captured using optical-CT scanning (632 nm) and the final 3D dose matrix was reconstructed using the MATLAB software. An Amersham 6711 seed with an air-kerma strength of approximately 9 U was used to irradiate two dosimeters to 2 Gy and 11 Gy at 1 cm to evaluate dose rates in the r=1 cm to r=5 cm region. The dosimetry parameters were compared to the values published in the updated AAPM Report No. 51 (TG-43U1). An AgX100 seed with an air-kerma strength of about 6 U was used to irradiate two dosimeters to 3.6 Gy and 12.5 Gy at 1 cm. The dosimetry parameters for the AgX100 were compared to the values measured from previous Monte-Carlo and experimental studies. In general, the measured dose rate constant, anisotropy function, and radial dose function for the Amersham 6711 showed agreements better than 5% compared to consensus values in the r=1 to r=3 cm region. The dose rates and radial dose functions measured for the AgX100 agreed with the MCNPX and TLD-measured values within 3% in the r=1 to r=3 cm region. The measured anisotropy function in PRESAGE® showed relative differences of up to 9% with the MCNPX calculated values. It was determined that post-irradiation optical density change over several days was non-linear in different dose regions, and therefore the dose values in the r=4 to r=5 cm regions had higher uncertainty due to this effect. This study demonstrated that within the radial distance of 3 cm, brachytherapy dosimetry in PRESAGE® can be accurate within 5% as long as irradiation times are within 48 hours.

Characteristics and benefits of professional work - Assessment of their importance over a 30-year career

The Professions in Australia Study is the first longitudinal investigation of the professions in Australia; it spans 33 years. Self-administered questionnaires were distributed on at least eight occasions between 1965 and 1998 to cohorts of students and later practitioners from the professions of engineering, law and medicine. The longitudinal design of this study has allowed for an investigation of individual change over time of three archetypal characteristics of the professions, service, knowledge and autonomy and two of the benefits of professional work, financial rewards and prestige. A cumulative logit random effects model was used to statistically assess changes in the ordinal response scores for measuring importance of the characteristics and benefits through stages of the career path. Individuals were also classified by average trends in response scores over time and hence professions are described through their members' tendency to follow a particular path in attitudes either of change or constancy, in relation to the importance of the five elements (characteristics and benefits). Comparisons in trends are also made between the three professions.

Understanding Isolation and Change in Island Human Populations through a study of Indigenous Cultural Patterns in the Gulf of Carpentaria

This paper presents a set of hypotheses to explain the cultural differences between Aboriginal people of the North and South Wellesley Islands, Gulf of Carpentaria and to characterise the relative degree and nature of their isolation and cultural change over a 10,000-year time-scale. This opportunity to study parallelisms and divergences in the cultural and demographic histories of fisher-hunter-gatherers arises from the comparison of three distinct cultural groupings: (a) the Ganggalida of the mainland, (b) the Lardil and Yangkaal of the North Wellesley Islands, and (c) the Kaiadilt of the South Wellesley Islands. Despite occupying similar island environments and despite their languages being as closely related as for example, the West Germanic languages, there are some major differences in cultural, economic and social organization as well as striking genetic differences between the North and South Wellesley populations. This paper synthesizes data from linguistics, anthropology, archaeology, genetics and environmental science to present hypotheses of how these intriguing differences were generated, and what we might learn about early processes of marine colonization and cultural change from the Wellesley situation.

Technical efficiency:efficiency, change, technical progress and productivity growth in the national health systems of continental African countries

In May 2006, the Ministers of Health of all the countries on the African continent, at a special session of the African Union, undertook to institutionalise efficiency monitoring within their respective national health information management systems. The specific objectives of this study were: (i) to assess the technical efficiency of National Health Systems (NHSs) of African countries for measuring male and female life expectancies, and (ii) to assess changes in health productivity over time with a view to analysing changes in efficiency and changes in technology. The analysis was based on a five-year panel data (1999-2003) from all the 53 countries of continental Africa. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) - a non-parametric linear programming approach - was employed to assess the technical efficiency. Malmquist Total Factor Productivity (MTFP) was used to analyse efficiency and productivity change over time among the 53 countries' national health systems. The data consisted of two outputs (male and female life expectancies) and two inputs (per capital total health expenditure and adult literacy). The DEA revealed that 49 (92.5%) countries' NHSs were run inefficiently in 1999 and 2000; 50 (94.3%), 48 (90.6%) and 47 (88.7%) operated inefficiently in 2001, 2002, and 2003 respectively. All the 53 countries' national health systems registered improvements in total factor productivity attributable mainly to technical progress. Fifty-two countries did not experience any change in scale efficiency, while thirty (56.6%) countries' national health systems had a Pure Efficiency Change (PEFFCH) index of less than one, signifying that those countries' NHSs pure efficiency contributed negatively to productivity change. All the 53 countries' national health systems registered improvements in total factor productivity, attributable mainly to technical progress. Over half of the countries' national health systems had a pure efficiency index of less than one, signifying that those countries' NHSs pure efficiency contributed negatively to productivity change. African countries may need to critically evaluate the utility of institutionalising Malmquist TFP type of analyses to monitor changes in health systems economic efficiency and productivity over time. African national health systems, per capita total health expenditure, technical efficiency, scale efficiency, Malmquist indices of productivity change, DEA

Implicit leadership theories in applied settings:factor structure, generalizability, and stability over time

The present empirical investigation had a 3-fold purpose: (a) to cross-validate L. R. Offermann, J. K. Kennedy, and P. W. Wirtz's (1994) scale of Implicit Leadership Theories (ILTs) in several organizational settings and to further provide a shorter scale of ILTs in organizations; (b) to assess the generalizability of ILTs across different employee groups, and (c) to evaluate ILTs' change over time. Two independent samples were used for the scale validation (N 1 = 500 and N 2 = 439). A 6-factor structure (Sensitivity, Intelligence, Dedication, Dynamism, Tyranny, and Masculinity) was found to most accurately represent ILTs in organizational settings. Regarding the generalizability of ILTs, although the 6-factor structure was consistent across different employee groups, there was only partial support for total factorial invariance. Finally, evaluation of gamma, beta, and alpha change provided support for ILTs' stability over time.

30 years of retail change:where (and how) do you shop?

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the extent of retail change in the UK grocery sector over the last 30 years. Design/methodology/approach – In 1980, a press article by Richard Milner and Patience Wheatcroft attempted to anticipate retail change by 1984. Taking that as a template, the paper examines how retail did, in fact, change over a much longer timescale: with some unanticipated innovations in place even by 1984. Reference is made to academic research on grocery retailing in progress at the time and which has recently been revisited. Findings – Although Milner and Wheatcroft tackled the modest task of looking ahead just four years, the content of their article is intriguingly reflective of the retail structure and systems of the UK at the time. Whilst some innovations were not anticipated, the broad themes of superstore power and market regulation still command attention 30 years on. Originality/value – Through reconsidering 30 years of retail change, the paper highlights that with time how do you shop has come to pose at least as interesting a question as where do you shop.

Using observation ageing to improve Markovian model learning in QoS engineering

Markovian models are widely used to analyse quality-of-service properties of both system designs and deployed systems. Thanks to the emergence of probabilistic model checkers, this analysis can be performed with high accuracy. However, its usefulness is heavily dependent on how well the model captures the actual behaviour of the analysed system. Our work addresses this problem for a class of Markovian models termed discrete-time Markov chains (DTMCs). We propose a new Bayesian technique for learning the state transition probabilities of DTMCs based on observations of the modelled system. Unlike existing approaches, our technique weighs observations based on their age, to account for the fact that older observations are less relevant than more recent ones. A case study from the area of bioinformatics workflows demonstrates the effectiveness of the technique in scenarios where the model parameters change over time.

Acculturation and Hispanic identity/ethnicity as a predictor of change on the brief situational confidence questionnaire

The purpose of this study was to investigate whether level of acculturation among Hispanic adolescent males (n = 174) influenced treatment outcome in a substance abuse program, specifically on the Brief Situational Confidence Questionnaire (BSCQ) which measures relapse confidence. It was hypothesized that lower levels of acculturation were likely to be predictive of positive change, whereas higher levels of acculturation were likely to be predictive of no change or negative change. It was found that adolescents changed over time in BSCQ scores regardless of which acculturation variable was measured. Contrary to expectations, for those adolescents placed in family treatment, place of birth was not significantly associated with treatment response. However, both, U.S. and non-U.S. born adolescents demonstrated a change over time when receiving family treatment, suggesting that the family substance abuse treatment utilized in this intervention effected change over time.

Programming Molecular Devices using Nucleic Acid Hairpins

Nucleic Acid hairpins have been a subject of study for the last four decades. They are composed of single strand that is

hybridized to itself, and the central section forming an unhybridized loop. In nature, they stabilize single stranded RNA, serve as nucleation

sites for RNA folding, protein recognition signals, mRNA localization and regulation of mRNA degradation. On the other hand,

DNA hairpins in biological contexts have been studied with respect to forming cruciform structures that can regulate gene expression.

The use of DNA hairpins as fuel for synthetic molecular devices, including locomotion, was proposed and experimental demonstrated in 2003. They

were interesting because they bring to the table an on-demand energy/information supply mechanism.

The energy/information is hidden (from hybridization) in the hairpin’s loop, until required.

The energy/information is harnessed by opening the stem region, and exposing the single stranded loop section.

The loop region is now free for possible hybridization and help move the system into a thermodynamically favourable state.

The hidden energy and information coupled with

programmability provides another functionality, of selectively choosing what reactions to hide and

what reactions to allow to proceed, that helps develop a topological sequence of events.

Hairpins have been utilized as a source of fuel for many different DNA devices. In this thesis, we program four different

molecular devices using DNA hairpins, and experimentally validate them in the

laboratory. 1) The first device: A

novel enzyme-free autocatalytic self-replicating system composed entirely of DNA that operates isothermally. 2) The second

device: Time-Responsive Circuits using DNA have two properties: a) asynchronous: the final output is always correct

regardless of differences in the arrival time of different inputs.

b) renewable circuits which can be used multiple times without major degradation of the gate motifs

(so if the inputs change over time, the DNA-based circuit can re-compute the output correctly based on the new inputs).

3) The third device: Activatable tiles are a theoretical extension to the Tile assembly model that enhances

its robustness by protecting the sticky sides of tiles until a tile is partially incorporated into a growing assembly.

4) The fourth device: Controlled Amplification of DNA catalytic system: a device such that the amplification

of the system does not run uncontrollably until the system runs out of fuel, but instead achieves a finite

amount of gain.

Nucleic acid circuits with the ability

to perform complex logic operations have many potential practical applications, for example the ability to achieve point of care diagnostics.

We discuss the designs of our DNA Hairpin molecular devices, the results we have obtained, and the challenges we have overcome

to make these truly functional.