970 resultados para Change points


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Engineering change is a significant part of any product development programme. Changes can arise at many points throughout the product life-cycle, resulting in rework which can ripple through different stages of the design process. Managing change processes is thus a critical aspect of any design project, especially in complex design. Through a literature review, this paper shows the diversity of information models used by different change management methods proposed in the literature. A classification framework for organising these change management approaches is presented. The review shows an increase in the number of cross-domain models proposed to help manage changes.

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We present a matching framework to find robust correspondences between image features by considering the spatial information between them. To achieve this, we define spatial constraints on the relative orientation and change in scale between pairs of features. A pairwise similarity score, which measures the similarity of features based on these spatial constraints, is considered. The pairwise similarity scores for all pairs of candidate correspondences are then accumulated in a 2-D similarity space. Robust correspondences can be found by searching for clusters in the similarity space, since actual correspondences are expected to form clusters that satisfy similar spatial constraints in this space. As it is difficult to achieve reliable and consistent estimates of scale and orientation, an additional contribution is that these parameters do not need to be determined at the interest point detection stage, which differs from conventional methods. Polar matching of dual-tree complex wavelet transform features is used, since it fits naturally into the framework with the defined spatial constraints. Our tests show that the proposed framework is capable of producing robust correspondences with higher correspondence ratios and reasonable computational efficiency, compared to other well-known algorithms. © 1992-2012 IEEE.

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Surface temperature measurements from two discs of a gas turbine compressor rig are used as boundary conditions for the transient conduction solution (inverse heat transfer analysis). The disc geometry is complex, and so the finite element method is used. There are often large radial temperature gradients on the discs, and the equations are therefore solved taking into account the dependence of thermal conductivity on temperature. The solution technique also makes use of a multigrid algorithm to reduce the solution time. This is particularly important since a large amount of data must be analyzed to obtain correlations of the heat transfer. The finite element grid is also used for a network analysis to calculate the radiant heat transfer in the cavity formed between the two compressor discs. The work discussed here proved particularly challenging as the disc temperatures were only measured at four different radial locations. Four methods of surface temperature interpolation are examined, together with their effect on the local heat fluxes. It is found that the choice of interpolation method depends on the available number of data points. Bessel interpolation gives the best results for four data points, whereas cubic splines are preferred when there are considerably more data points. The results from the analysis of the compressor rig data show that the heat transfer near the disc inner radius appears to be influenced by the central throughflow. However, for larger radii, the heat transfer from the discs and peripheral shroud is found to be consistent with that of a buoyancy-induced flow.

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During the period of the post-glacial transgression maximum (PGTM), there was a huge trumpet estuary in the modern Changjiang River Delta area. The location and the shape of the Paleo-Changjiang River Estuary (PCRE) were much different from those of the present Changjiang River Estuary. The study on the change of characteristics of tidal wave in the Changjiang River mouth area since the PGTM can help to understand better the dynamic development of the Changjiang River Delta. The course curves of tidal level and tidal current velocity during a single tidal cycle for 35 points are calculated, and characteristics of tidal waves in the PCRE and its adjacent area are compared with those of tidal waves in the modern Changjiang River mouth area. The results show that the tidal waves within the PCRE and in its adjacent area during the period of the PGTM belonged to standing wave or a mixture of standing wave and progressive wave. Since then, the tidal wave in the Changjiang River mouth become gradually to be progressive wave with the PCRE being filled and the Changjiang River mouth shifting southeastwards.

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The study of medieval carpentry is probably one of the most neglected aspects of archaeological research in Ireland. The principal difficulty is the nature of the evidence, in that timber, unless the conditions are right, rarely leaves a trace above ground. The problem is further exacerbated by the fact that not a single medieval timber-framed building has survived in Ireland. Nevertheless, in recent years, in addition to the medieval roof of Dunsoghley, which up to quite recently was thought to be the only surviving roof structure in Ireland, a further eight medieval roof structures have been identified. Furthermore, an extensive corpus of early medieval mills, with evidence for advanced Roman carpentry techniques, has been excavated, while evidence for Viking houses, on what is probably the largest extant Viking settlement in Europe, have also been recovered. Although post and wattle structures dominate the archaeological record of the Viking period, nevertheless, it will be shown that the Roman tradition of carpentry, evidenced in the early medieval mills from the early seventh century, continued in use in the wider Gaelic community. And it is one of the pivotal points of this study, that with the takeover of Dublin by the Gaelic Irish in the late tenth century, this Roman carpentry tradition was gradually assimilated into the carpentry tradition of the Viking towns, which were now largely inhabited by a mixed population of Hiberno-Norse. Evidence for this Gaelic influence can be seen not only in the gradual replacement of the Viking post and wattle house by timber houses with load-bearing walls, but more importantly by the evidence for waterfront structures founded on baseplates with mortise and tenoned uprights on the pre-Norman waterfront in Cork. Furthermore, it will be shown, that the carpentry techniques used to build the Wood Quay revetments, shortly after the Anglo-Norman conquest in AD 1170, supports this contention.

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Climate change induced by anthropogenic warming of the earth's atmosphere is a daunting problem. This review examines one of the consequences of climate change that has only recently attracted attention: namely, the effects of climate change on the environmental distribution and toxicity of chemical pollutants. A review was undertaken of the scientific literature (original research articles, reviews, government and intergovernmental reports) focusing on the interactions of toxicants with the environmental parameters, temperature, precipitation, and salinity, as altered by climate change. Three broad classes of chemical toxicants of global significance were the focus: air pollutants, persistent organic pollutants (POPs), including some organochlorine pesticides, and other classes of pesticides. Generally, increases in temperature will enhance the toxicity of contaminants and increase concentrations of tropospheric ozone regionally, but will also likely increase rates of chemical degradation. While further research is needed, climate change coupled with air pollutant exposures may have potentially serious adverse consequences for human health in urban and polluted regions. Climate change producing alterations in: food webs, lipid dynamics, ice and snow melt, and organic carbon cycling could result in increased POP levels in water, soil, and biota. There is also compelling evidence that increasing temperatures could be deleterious to pollutant-exposed wildlife. For example, elevated water temperatures may alter the biotransformation of contaminants to more bioactive metabolites and impair homeostasis. The complex interactions between climate change and pollutants may be particularly problematic for species living at the edge of their physiological tolerance range where acclimation capacity may be limited. In addition to temperature increases, regional precipitation patterns are projected to be altered with climate change. Regions subject to decreases in precipitation may experience enhanced volatilization of POPs and pesticides to the atmosphere. Reduced precipitation will also increase air pollution in urbanized regions resulting in negative health effects, which may be exacerbated by temperature increases. Regions subject to increased precipitation will have lower levels of air pollution, but will likely experience enhanced surface deposition of airborne POPs and increased run-off of pesticides. Moreover, increases in the intensity and frequency of storm events linked to climate change could lead to more severe episodes of chemical contamination of water bodies and surrounding watersheds. Changes in salinity may affect aquatic organisms as an independent stressor as well as by altering the bioavailability and in some instances increasing the toxicity of chemicals. A paramount issue will be to identify species and populations especially vulnerable to climate-pollutant interactions, in the context of the many other physical, chemical, and biological stressors that will be altered with climate change. Moreover, it will be important to predict tipping points that might trigger or accelerate synergistic interactions between climate change and contaminant exposures.

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Geospatial modeling is one of the most powerful tools available to conservation biologists for estimating current species ranges of Earth's biodiversity. Now, with the advantage of predictive climate models, these methods can be deployed for understanding future impacts on threatened biota. Here, we employ predictive modeling under a conservative estimate of future climate change to examine impacts on the future abundance and geographic distributions of Malagasy lemurs. Using distribution data from the primary literature, we employed ensemble species distribution models and geospatial analyses to predict future changes in species distributions. Current species distribution models (SDMs) were created within the BIOMOD2 framework that capitalizes on ten widely used modeling techniques. Future and current SDMs were then subtracted from each other, and areas of contraction, expansion, and stability were calculated. Model overprediction is a common issue associated Malagasy taxa. Accordingly, we introduce novel methods for incorporating biological data on dispersal potential to better inform the selection of pseudo-absence points. This study predicts that 60% of the 57 species examined will experience a considerable range of reductions in the next seventy years entirely due to future climate change. Of these species, range sizes are predicted to decrease by an average of 59.6%. Nine lemur species (16%) are predicted to expand their ranges, and 13 species (22.8%) distribution sizes were predicted to be stable through time. Species ranges will experience severe shifts, typically contractions, and for the majority of lemur species, geographic distributions will be considerably altered. We identify three areas in dire need of protection, concluding that strategically managed forest corridors must be a key component of lemur and other biodiversity conservation strategies. This recommendation is all the more urgent given that the results presented here do not take into account patterns of ongoing habitat destruction relating to human activities.

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The tendency for island populations of mammalian taxa to diverge in body size from their mainland counterparts consistently in particular directions is both impressive for its regularity and, especially among rodents, troublesome for its exceptions. However, previous studies have largely ignored mainland body size variation, treating size differences of any magnitude as equally noteworthy. Here, we use distributions of mainland population body sizes to identify island populations as 'extremely' big or small, and we compare traits of extreme populations and their islands with those of island populations more typical in body size. We find that although insular rodents vary in the directions of body size change, 'extreme' populations tend towards gigantism. With classification tree methods, we develop a predictive model, which points to resource limitations as major drivers in the few cases of insular dwarfism. Highly successful in classifying our dataset, our model also successfully predicts change in untested cases.

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The role intra-organizational knowledge exchanges play in innovation processes has been widely acknowledged in the organizational literature. This paper contributes to the understanding of which specific configurations knowledge networks assume during different phases of radical and incremental innovation processes. The case study we selected is a FLOSS (Free/Libre Open Source Software) community consisting of 233 developers committed to the development of a web browser application since November 2002. By harvesting the mailing list, official blog and code repository of a FLOSS community, we investigate the patterns of knowledge exchange and individual contributions of its developers. We measure structural cohesion and compare global and local network properties at different points in time. Preliminary results show that phases of radical and incremental innovation are associated with specific configurations of the knowledge network as a whole as well as with different network positions of the core developers of the software.

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Energetic costs of fighting, such as high lactate or low glucose, have been shown in a range of species to correlate with the decisions made by each opponent, particularly the decision by one opponent, the 'loser', to end the fight by 'giving up'. Studies based on complete fights of differing duration, however, do not provide information on the changes in the physiological correlates of fighting that may take place during the course of the encounter, or how these changes may influence the capability and decisions of the contestants. We interrupted fights between hermit crabs, Pagurus bernhardus, at specific points, and related energy status to the preceding activities. Costs rose quickly with a rapid accumulation of lactic acid in attackers and declining muscular glycogen in defenders. Changes in physiological status appeared much earlier than the changes in behaviour that they may have caused. Furthermore, some physiological changes might have been an effect, rather than the cause, of fight decisions. (c) 2005 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Following automation of lighthouses around the coastline of Ireland, reports of accelerated deterioration of interior granite stonework have increased significantly with an associated deterioration in the historic structure and rise in related maintenance costs. Decay of granite stone- work primarily occurs through granular disintegration with the effective grusification of granite surfaces. A decay gradient exists within the towers whereby the condition of granite in the lower levels is much worse than elsewhere. The lower tower levels are also regions with highest rela- tive humidity values and greatest salt concentrations. Data indicate that post-automation decay may have been trig- gered by a change in micro-environmental conditions within the towers associated with increased episodes of condensation on stone surfaces. This in turn appears to have facilitated deposition and accumulation of hygro- scopic salts (e.g. NaCl) giving rise to widespread evidence of deliquescence in the lower tower levels. Evidence indicates that the main factors contributing to accelerated deterioration of interior granite stonework are changes in micro-environmental conditions, salt weathering, chemical weathering through the corrosive effect of strongly alkaline conditions on alumino-silicate minerals within the granite and finally, the mica-rich characteristics of the granite itself which increases its structural and chemical susceptibility to subaerial weathering processes by creating points of weakness within the granite. This case study demonstrates how seemingly minor changes in micro-environmental conditions can unintentionally trigger the rapid and extensive deterioration of a previously stable rock type and threaten the long-term future of nationally iconic opera- tional historic structures.

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The International Olympic Committee (IOC) declares environmental protection to be the third dimension of the Olympic movement. That, in effect, means that nations wishing to host the Games have to present themselves as reliable practitioners of environmental sustainability (ES) in their applications. The greening of sports mega-events, and the hosting of Olympic Games in particular, is now reasonably well established. Yet evidence from the first decade of environmentally-conscious Olympics points to diverging patterns of achievement in the operationalisation of the IOC’s ‘third pillar’. As is now common knowledge, for example, Sydney 2000 was the first ‘Green Olympics’ in the history of the Games; yet four years later, Athens provided a stark contrast, and was the subject of highly critical assessment reports by environmental organisations. Yet Athens has not stopped the Bid Committee for the Beijing 2008 Games claiming that it would ‘leave the greatest Olympic Games environmental legacy ever’ (UNEP 2007: 26), while the London 2012 promotes the concept of the ‘One Planet Olympics’.

In this context and in light of the current global economic crisis, can we claim that London 2012 has the capacity to fulfil its environmental ambitions? This question is adopted in continuity with similar framed questions that have been posed in relation to the most recent Olympics and it is tackled by adopting an investigative model that is placed within discourses of ‘reflexive modernisation’.

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Abstract
Background Physical inactivity is a major public health concern, and more innovative approaches are urgently needed to address it. The UK Government supports the use of incentives and so-called nudges to encourage healthy behaviour changes, and has encouraged business sector involvement in public health through the Public Health Responsibility Deal. To test the effectiveness of provision of incentives to encourage adults to increase their physical activity, we
recruited 406 adults from a workplace setting (office-based) to take part in an assessor-blind randomised controlled trial.
Methods
We developed the physical activity loyalty card scheme, which integrates a novel physical activity tracking system with web-based monitoring (palcard). Participants were recruited from two buildings at Northern Ireland’s main
government offices and were randomly allocated (grouped by building [n=2] to reduce contamination) to either incentive group (n=199) or no incentive group (n=207). We included participants aged 16–65 years, based at the worksite 4 days or more per week and for 6 h or more per day, and able to complete 15 min of moderate-paced walking (self-report). Exclusion criteria included having received specific advice by a general practitioner not to exercise. A statistician not involved in administration of the trial prepared a computer-generated random allocation sequence. Random assignments were placed in individually numbered, sealed envelopes by the statistician to ensure concealment of allocation. Only the assessor was masked to assignment. Sensors were placed along footpaths and the gym in the workplace. Participants scanned their loyalty card at the sensor when undertaking physical activity (eg, walking), which logged activity. Participants in the incentive group monitored their physical activity, collected points, and received rewards (retail vouchers) for minutes of physical activity completed over the 12-week intervention. Rewards were vouchers sponsored by local retailers. Participants in the no incentive group used their loyalty card to self-monitor their physical activity but were not able to earn points or receive rewards. The primary outcome was change in minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity with the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire, measured at baseline, week 12, and 6 months. Activity was objectively measured with the tracking system over the 12-week intervention. Mann Whitney U tests were done to assess change between groups.
Findings
The mean age of participants was 43·32 years (SD 9·37), and 272 (67%) were women. We obtained follow-up data from 353 (87%) participants at week 12 and 341 (84%) at 6 months. At week 12, participants in the incentive group increased moderate to vigorous physical activity by a median of 60 min per week (IQR –10 to 120) compared with 30 min per week (–60 to 90) in the no incentive group (p=0·05). At 6 months, participants in the incentive group had
increased their moderate to vigorous physical activity by 30 min per week (–60 to 100) from baseline compared with 0 min per week (–115 to 1110) in the no incentive group (p=0·099). We noted no significant differences between groups
for use of loyalty card (p=0·18). Participants in the incentive group recorded a mean of 60·22 min (95% CI 50·90–69·55) of physical activity per week with their loyalty card on week 1 and 23·56 min (17·06–30·06) at week 12, which was similar to that for those in the no incentive group (59·74 min, 51·24–68·23, at week 1; 20·25 min, 14·45–26·06, at week 12; p=0·94 for differences between groups at week 1; p=0·45 for differences between groups at week 12).
Interpretation:
Financial incentives showed a short-term behaviour change in physical activity. This innovative study contributes to the necessary evidence base, and has important implications for physical activity promotion and business engagement in health. The optimum incentive-based approach needs to be established. Results should be interpreted with some caution as the analyses of secondary outcomes were not adjusted for multiple comparisons.

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The number of well-dated pollen diagrams in Europe has increased considerably over the last 30 years and many of them have been submitted to the European Pollen Database (EPD). This allows for the construction of increasingly precise maps of Holocene vegetation change across the continent. Chronological information in the EPD has been expressed in uncalibrated radiocarbon years, and most chronologies to date are based on this time scale. Here we present new chronologies for most of the datasets stored in the EPD based on calibrated radiocarbon years. Age information associated with pollen diagrams is often derived from the pollen stratigraphy itself or from other sedimentological information. We reviewed these chronological tie points and assigned uncertainties to them. The steps taken to generate the new chronologies are described and the rationale for a new classification system for age uncertainties is introduced. The resulting chronologies are fit for most continental-scale questions. They may not provide the best age model for particular sites, but may be viewed as general purpose chronologies. Taxonomic particularities of the data stored in the EPD are explained. An example is given of how the database can be queried to select samples with appropriate age control as well as the suitable taxonomic level to answer a specific research question. © 2013 The Author(s).

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Background: Financial incentives have been advocated by the UK and U.S. governments to encourage adoption of healthy lifestyles. However, evidence to support the use of incentives for changing physical activity (PA) behavior is sparse.
Purpose:To investigate the effectiveness of?nancial incentives to increase PA in adults in the workplace.
Design: Two-arm quasi-experimental design.
Setting/participants: Employees (n¼406) in a workplace setting in Belfast, Northern Ireland, UK.
Intervention: Using a loyalty card to collect points and earn rewards, participants (n¼199) in the Incentive Group monitored their PA levels and received ?nancial incentives (retail vouchers) for minutes of PA completed over the course of a 12-week intervention period. Participants (n¼207) in the comparison group used their loyalty card to self-monitor their PA levels but were not able to earn points or obtain incentives (No Incentive Group).
Main outcome measures:The primary outcome was minutes of PA objectively measured using a novel PA tracking system at baseline (April 2011); Week 6 (June 2011); and Week 12 (July 2011).
Other outcomes, including a self-report measure of PA, were collected at baseline, Week 12, and 6 months (October 2011). Data were analyzed in June 2012.
Results: No signi?cant differences between groups were found for primary or secondary outcomes at the 12-week and 6-month assessments. Participants in the Incentive Group recorded 17.52 minutes of PA/week (95% CI¼12.49, 22.56) compared to 16.63 minutes/week (95% CI¼11.76, 21.51) in the No Incentive Group at Week 12 (p¼0.59). At 6 months, participants in the Incentive Group recorded 26.18 minutes of PA/week (95% CI¼20.06, 32.29) compared to 24.00 minutes/week (95% CI¼17.45, 30.54) in the No Incentive Group (p¼0.45).
Conclusions: Financial incentives did not encourage participants to undertake more PA than selfmonitoring PA. This study contributes to the evidence base and has important implications for increasing participation in physical activity and fostering links with the business sector. (Am J Prev Med 2013;45(1):56–63) © 2013 American Journal of Preventive Medicine