Assessing the impacts of land use and land cover change on hydrology of watershed: a case study on Gigel-Abbay Watershed, Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

The human side of change: Qualitative research on a public sector hospital merger

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Portuguese commercial banking: An assessment of competition in the 1960-2013 period

Strong consolidation is one of the most evident developments of banking markets around the world in recent decades. This change is raising questions on how and to what an extent competition is affected by the expansion of the largest banks. The aim of the present study is to measure the degree of competition in the Portuguese commercial banking market in the long-run, during the period ranging from1960 to 2013, by using the non-structural model developed by Panzar and Rosse. The main findings are that the Portuguese banking system, despite the legal restrictions in place, operated mostly in a market with some degree of competition and, at some points in time, presented some interesting competitive features. More recently, it has evolved into functioning as a cartel.

A wave of change: Labor market and social security impacts of the EU refugee inflow

The recent massive inflow of refugees to the European Union (EU) raises a number of unanswered questions on the economic impact of this phenomenon. To examine these questions, we constructed an overlapping-generations model that describes the evolution of the skill premium and of the welfare benefit level in relevant European countries, in the aftermath of an inflow of asylum-seekers. In our simulation, relative wages of skilled workers increase between 8% and 11% in the period of the inflow; their subsequent time path is dependent on the initial skill premium. The entry of migrants creates a fiscal surplus of about 8%, which can finance higher welfare benefits in the subsequent periods. These effects are weaker in a scenario where refugees do not fully integrate into the labor market.

Cultural circuits of climate change in U.K. broadsheet newspapers, 1985–2003

This article argues for a cultural perspective to be brought to bear on studies of climate change risk perception. Developing the “circuit of culture” model, the article maintains that the producers and consumers of media texts are jointly engaged in dynamic, meaning-making activities that are context-specific and that change over time. A critical discourse analysis of climate change based on a database of newspaper reports from three U.K. broadsheet papers over the period 1985–2003 is presented. This empirical study identifies three distinct circuits of climate change—1985–1990, 1991–1996, 1997–2003—which are characterized by different framings of risks associated with climate change. The article concludes that there is evidence of social learning as actors build on their experiences in relation to climate change science and policy making. Two important factors in shaping the U.K.’s broadsheet newspapers’ discourse on “dangerous” climate change emerge as the agency of top political figures and the dominant ideological standpoints in different newspapers.

Comparison of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Different Areas of Health Care Over a 20-Year Period

Background:Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of death worldwide. Knowledge about cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) in young adults and their modification over time are measures that change the risks and prevent CVDs.Objectives:To determine the presence of CVRFs and their changes in different health care professionals over a period of 20 years.Methods:All students of medicine, nursing, nutrition, odontology, and pharmacy departments of Federal University of Goiás who agreed to participate in this study were evaluated when they started their degree courses and 20 years afterward. Questionnaires on CVRFs [systemic arterial hypertension (SAH), diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, and family history of early CVD, smoking, alcohol consumption, and sedentarism] were administered. Cholesterol levels, blood sugar levels, blood pressure, weight, height, and body mass index were determined. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to evaluate distribution, the chi-square test was used to compare different courses and sexes, and the McNemar test was used for comparing CVRFs. The significance level was set at a p value of < 0.05.Results:The first stage of the study included 281 individuals (91% of all the students), of which 62.9% were women; the mean age was 19.7 years. In the second stage, 215 subjects were reassessed (76% of the initial sample), of which 59.07% were women; the mean age was 39.8 years. The sample mostly consisted of medical students (with a predominance of men), followed by nursing, nutrition, and pharmacy students, with a predominance of women (p < 0.05). Excessive weight gain, SAH, and dyslipidemia were observed among physicians and dentists (p < 0.05). Excessive weight gain and SAH and a reduction in sedentarism (p < 0.05) were observed among pharmacists. Among nurses there was an increase in excessive weight and alcohol consumption (p < 0.05). Finally, nutritionists showed an increase in dyslipidemia (p < 0.05).Conclusion:In general, there was an unfavorable progression of CVRFs in the population under study, despite it having adequate specialized knowledge about these risk factors.

Assessing the structural change of strategic mobility: determinants under hypercompetitive environments

The primary purpose of this exploratory empirical study is to examine the structural stability of a limited number of alternative explanatory factors of strategic change. On the basis of theoretical arguments and prior empirical evidence from two traditional perspectives, we propose an original empirical framework to analyse whether these potential explanatory factors have remained stable over time in a highly turbulent environment. This original question is explored in a particular setting: the population of Spanish private banks. The firms of this industry have experienced a high level of strategic mobility as a consequence of fundamental changes undergone in their environmental conditions over the last two decades (mainly changes related to the new banking and financial regulation process). Our results consistently support that the effect of most explanatory factors of strategic mobility considered did not remain stable over the whole period of analysis. From this point of view, the study sheds new light on major debates and dilemmas in the field of strategy regarding why firms change their competitive patterns over time and, hence, to what extent the "contextdependency" of alternative views of strategic change as their relative validation can vary over time for a given population. Methodologically, this research makes two major contributions to the study of potential determinants of strategic change. First, the definition and measurement of strategic change employing a new grouping method, the Model-based Cluster Method or MCLUST. Second, in order to asses the possible effect of determinants of strategic mobility we have controlled the non-observable heterogeneity using logistic regression models for panel data.

Equity and CO2 emissions distribution in climate change integrated assessment

Emissions distribution is a focus variable for the design of future international agreements to tackle global warming. This paper specifically analyses the future path of emissions distribution and its determinants in different scenarios. Whereas our analysis is driven by tools which are typically applied in the income distribution literature and which have recently been applied to the analysis of CO2 emissions distribution, a new methodological approach is that our study is driven by simulations run with a popular regionalised optimal growth climate change model over the 1995-2105 period. We find that the architecture of environmental policies, the implementation of flexible mechanisms and income concentration are key determinants of emissions distribution over time. In particular we find a robust positive relationship between measures of inequalities.

Response of photosynthetic organisms to global change: an approach based on marker pigments

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the Department of Freshwater Ecology, National Environmetal Research Institute, Denmark, from 2006 to 2008. The main objective of the project was to reconstruct photosynthetic organism community composition using pigmentbased methods and to study their response to natural (e.g. climate) or anthropogenic (e.g. eutrophication) perturbations that took place in the system over time. We performed a study in different locations and at different temporal scales. We analysed the pigment composition in a short sediment record (46 cm sediment depth) of a volcanic lake (Lake Furnas) in the Azores Archipelago (Portugal). The lake has been affected during the last century by successive fish introductions. The specific objective was to reconstruct the lake’s trophic state history and to assess the role of land-use, climate and fish introductions in structuring the lake community. Results obtained suggested that whereas trophic cascade and changes in nutrient concentrations have some clear effects on algal and microbial assemblages, interpreting the effects of changes in climate are not straightforward. This is probably related with the rather constant precipitation in the Azores Islands during the studied period. We also analysed the pigment composition in a long sediment record (1800 cm sediment depth) of Lake Aborre (Denmark) covering ca. 8kyr of lake history. The specific objective was to describe changes in lake primary production and lake trophic state over the Holocene and to determine the photosynthetic organisms involved. Results suggested that external forcing (i.e. land use changes) was responsible of erosion and nutrient run off to the lake that contributed to the reported changes in lake primary production along most of the Holocene.

Climate change in the Atlantic Ocean since the 1940's and the effects on the global climate

En aquest projecte s’ha estudiat la relació entre els canvis en les temperatures superficials de l’Oceà Atlàntic i els canvis en la circulació atmosfèrica en el segle XX. Concretament s’han analitzat dos períodes de estudi: el primer des del 1940 al 1960 i el segon des del 1980 fins al 2000. S’ha posat especial interès en les anomalies en les temperatures superficials del mar en la regió tropical de l’Oceà Atlàntic i la possible interconnexió amb els canvis climàtics observats i predits. Per a la realització de l’estudi s’han dut a terme una sèrie d’experiments utilitzant el model climàtic elaborat a la universitat d’UCLA (UCLA‐AGCM model). Els resultats obtinguts han estat analitzats en forma de mapes i figures per a cada variable d’estudi. També s’ha fet una comparació entre els resultats obtinguts i altres trobats en altres treballs publicats sobre el mateix tema de recerca. Els resultats obtinguts són molt amplis i poden tenir diverses interpretacions. Tot i així algunes de les conclusions a les quals s’ha arribat són: les diferències més significatives per a les variables estudiades i trobades a partir dels resultats obtinguts del model per als dos períodes d’estudi són en els mesos d’hivern i a la zona dels tròpics; concretament a parts del nord de sud Amèrica i a parts del nord d’Àfrica. S’han trobat també canvis significatius en els patrons de precipitació sobre aquestes mateixes zones. També s’ha observant un moviment cap al nord de la zona d’interconvergència tropical i pot ser degut a l’anòmal gradient trobat a la zona equatorial en les temperatures superficial de l’Oceà. Tot i així per a una definitiva discussió i conclusions sobre els resultats dels experiments, seria necessari un estudi més ampli i profund.

Anaesthesia for electroconvulsive therapy: time for a change?

Introduction: Electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) may be used to treat severe depression and needs a specific general anaesthesia. Important cardiovascular changes occur during the ECT with a parasympathetic induced bradycardia followed by a sympathetic response. A dedicated protocol was designed 6 years ago. The goal of this study was to analyse the management of anaesthesia for ECT in our institution, the adherence to the protocol and the occurrence of adverse events during anaesthesia. Methods: After Institutional Ethics Committee approval, we conducted a retrospective analysis of our anaesthesia protocol for patients scheduled for electroshock therapy during a five years period (2004- 2008). The protocol includes administration of atropine subcutaneously 30 minutes before the procedure, followed by general anaesthesia induced with etomidate (0.2 mg/kg). Suxamethonium (1 mg/kg) is administered after the inflation of a pneumatic tourniquet on the opposite arm, in order to observe the electroshocks convulsive effects. The psychiatrist initiates the convulsive crisis once curarisation is achieved. Face mask ventilation is then applied during the post-ictal phase with closed blood pressure monitoring. : 228 ECT were performed in 25 patients. The median dosage of etomidate was 0.37 mg/kg and suxamethonium 1.20 mg/kg. Hypertension during the ECT procedure was present in 62.7% of cases, tachycardia 23.2% and bradycardia 10.5%. Esmolol was administered in 73.4% of hypertensive patients in a range of 0 to 30 mg. The protocol was followed in half of the cases in regards to atropine administration (50.4%). We observed a significant increase of hypertension (73.9%, p = 0.001) after atropine administration, without effect on heart rate. Conclusions: The management of anaesthesia for ECT is specific and follows a predefined protocol in our institution. Adherence to our protocol was poor. Adverse events are frequent and significant association between the administration of atropine and the incidence of hypertension as well as poor protocol adherence implies reconsideration of our anaesthesia protocol for electroconvulsive therapy and better quality control of the clinical practice.

Treeline and climate change : analyzing and modeling patterns and shifts in the Swiss Alps

Summary: Global warming has led to an average earth surface temperature increase of about 0.7 °C in the 20th century, according to the 2007 IPCC report. In Switzerland, the temperature increase in the same period was even higher: 1.3 °C in the Northern Alps anal 1.7 °C in the Southern Alps. The impacts of this warming on ecosystems aspecially on climatically sensitive systems like the treeline ecotone -are already visible today. Alpine treeline species show increased growth rates, more establishment of young trees in forest gaps is observed in many locations and treelines are migrating upwards. With the forecasted warming, this globally visible phenomenon is expected to continue. This PhD thesis aimed to develop a set of methods and models to investigate current and future climatic treeline positions and treeline shifts in the Swiss Alps in a spatial context. The focus was therefore on: 1) the quantification of current treeline dynamics and its potential causes, 2) the evaluation and improvement of temperaturebased treeline indicators and 3) the spatial analysis and projection of past, current and future climatic treeline positions and their respective elevational shifts. The methods used involved a combination of field temperature measurements, statistical modeling and spatial modeling in a geographical information system. To determine treeline shifts and assign the respective drivers, neighborhood relationships between forest patches were analyzed using moving window algorithms. Time series regression modeling was used in the development of an air-to-soil temperature transfer model to calculate thermal treeline indicators. The indicators were then applied spatially to delineate the climatic treeline, based on interpolated temperature data. Observation of recent forest dynamics in the Swiss treeline ecotone showed that changes were mainly due to forest in-growth, but also partly to upward attitudinal shifts. The recent reduction in agricultural land-use was found to be the dominant driver of these changes. Climate-driven changes were identified only at the uppermost limits of the treeline ecotone. Seasonal mean temperature indicators were found to be the best for predicting climatic treelines. Applying dynamic seasonal delimitations and the air-to-soil temperature transfer model improved the indicators' applicability for spatial modeling. Reproducing the climatic treelines of the past 45 years revealed regionally different attitudinal shifts, the largest being located near the highest mountain mass. Modeling climatic treelines based on two IPCC climate warming scenarios predicted major shifts in treeline altitude. However, the currently-observed treeline is not expected to reach this limit easily, due to lagged reaction, possible climate feedback effects and other limiting factors. Résumé: Selon le rapport 2007 de l'IPCC, le réchauffement global a induit une augmentation de la température terrestre de 0.7 °C en moyenne au cours du 20e siècle. En Suisse, l'augmentation durant la même période a été plus importante: 1.3 °C dans les Alpes du nord et 1.7 °C dans les Alpes du sud. Les impacts de ce réchauffement sur les écosystèmes - en particuliers les systèmes sensibles comme l'écotone de la limite des arbres - sont déjà visibles aujourd'hui. Les espèces de la limite alpine des forêts ont des taux de croissance plus forts, on observe en de nombreux endroits un accroissement du nombre de jeunes arbres s'établissant dans les trouées et la limite des arbres migre vers le haut. Compte tenu du réchauffement prévu, on s'attend à ce que ce phénomène, visible globalement, persiste. Cette thèse de doctorat visait à développer un jeu de méthodes et de modèles pour étudier dans un contexte spatial la position présente et future de la limite climatique des arbres, ainsi que ses déplacements, au sein des Alpes suisses. L'étude s'est donc focalisée sur: 1) la quantification de la dynamique actuelle de la limite des arbres et ses causes potentielles, 2) l'évaluation et l'amélioration des indicateurs, basés sur la température, pour la limite des arbres et 3) l'analyse spatiale et la projection de la position climatique passée, présente et future de la limite des arbres et des déplacements altitudinaux de cette position. Les méthodes utilisées sont une combinaison de mesures de température sur le terrain, de modélisation statistique et de la modélisation spatiale à l'aide d'un système d'information géographique. Les relations de voisinage entre parcelles de forêt ont été analysées à l'aide d'algorithmes utilisant des fenêtres mobiles, afin de mesurer les déplacements de la limite des arbres et déterminer leurs causes. Un modèle de transfert de température air-sol, basé sur les modèles de régression sur séries temporelles, a été développé pour calculer des indicateurs thermiques de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs ont ensuite été appliqués spatialement pour délimiter la limite climatique des arbres, sur la base de données de températures interpolées. L'observation de la dynamique forestière récente dans l'écotone de la limite des arbres en Suisse a montré que les changements étaient principalement dus à la fermeture des trouées, mais aussi en partie à des déplacements vers des altitudes plus élevées. Il a été montré que la récente déprise agricole était la cause principale de ces changements. Des changements dus au climat n'ont été identifiés qu'aux limites supérieures de l'écotone de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs de température moyenne saisonnière se sont avérés le mieux convenir pour prédire la limite climatique des arbres. L'application de limites dynamiques saisonnières et du modèle de transfert de température air-sol a amélioré l'applicabilité des indicateurs pour la modélisation spatiale. La reproduction des limites climatiques des arbres durant ces 45 dernières années a mis en évidence des changements d'altitude différents selon les régions, les plus importants étant situés près du plus haut massif montagneux. La modélisation des limites climatiques des arbres d'après deux scénarios de réchauffement climatique de l'IPCC a prédit des changements majeurs de l'altitude de la limite des arbres. Toutefois, l'on ne s'attend pas à ce que la limite des arbres actuellement observée atteigne cette limite facilement, en raison du délai de réaction, d'effets rétroactifs du climat et d'autres facteurs limitants.

Plasmodium falciparum gametocyte carriage, sex ratios and asexual parasite rates in Nigerian children before and after a treatment protocol policy change instituting the use of artemisinin-based combination therapies

The effects of artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) on transmission of Plasmodium falciparum were evaluated after a policy change instituting the use of ACTs in an endemic area. P. falciparum gametocyte carriage, sex ratios and inbreeding rates were examined in 2,585 children at presentation with acute falciparum malaria during a 10-year period from 2001-2010. Asexual parasite rates were also evaluated from 2003-2010 in 10,615 children before and after the policy change. Gametocyte carriage declined significantly from 12.4% in 2001 to 3.6% in 2010 (@@χ² for trend = 44.3, p < 0.0001), but sex ratios and inbreeding rates remained unchanged. Additionally, overall parasite rates remained unchanged before and after the policy change (47.2% vs. 45.4%), but these rates declined significantly from 2003-2010 (@@χ² for trend 35.4, p < 0.0001). Chloroquine (CQ) and artemether-lumefantrine (AL) were used as prototype drugs before and after the policy change, respectively. AL significantly shortened the duration of male gametocyte carriage in individual patients after treatment began compared with CQ (log rank statistic = 7.92, p = 0.005). ACTs reduced the rate of gametocyte carriage in children with acute falciparum infections at presentation and shortened the duration of male gametocyte carriage after treatment. However, parasite population sex ratios, inbreeding rates and overall parasite rate were unaffected.

Expression and localization of PPARs in the rat ovary during follicular development and the periovulatory period.

PPARs are a family of nuclear hormone receptors involved in various processes that could influence ovarian function. We investigated the cellular localization and expression of PPARs during follicular development in ovarian tissue collected from rats 0, 6, 12, 24, and 48 h post-PMSG. A second group of animals received human CG (hCG) 48 h post-PMSG. Their ovaries were removed 0, 4, 8, 12, and 24 h post-hCG to study the periovulatory period. mRNAs corresponding to the PPAR isotypes (alpha, delta, and gamma) were localized by in situ hybridization. Changes in the levels of mRNA for the PPARs were determined by ribonuclease protection assays. PPAR gamma mRNA was localized primarily to granulosa cells, and levels of expression did not change during follicular development. Four hours post-hCG, levels of mRNA for PPAR gamma decreased (P &lt; 0.05) but not uniformly in all follicles. At 24 h post-hCG, levels of PPAR gamma mRNA were reduced 64%, but some follicles maintained high expression. In contrast, mRNAs for PPAR alpha and delta were located primarily in theca and stroma, and their levels did not change during the intervals studied. To investigate the physiologic significance of PPAR gamma in the ovary, granulosa cells from PMSG-primed rats were cultured for 48 h with prostaglandin J(2) (PGJ(2)) and ciglitazone, PPAR gamma activators. Both compounds increased progesterone and E2 secretion (P &lt; 0.05). These data suggest that PPAR gamma is involved in follicular development, has a negative influence on the luteinization of granulosa cells, and/or regulates the periovulatory shift in steroid production. The more general and steady expression of PPARs alpha and delta indicate that they may play a role in basal ovarian function.

Climate change, anthropogenic disturbance and the northward range expansion of Lactuca serriola (Asteraceae)

The distribution range of Lactuca serriola, a species native to the summer-dry mediterranean climate, has expanded northwards during the last 250 years. This paper assesses the influence of climate on the range expansion of this species and highlights the importance of anthropogenic disturbance to its spread. Location Central and Northern Europe. Methods Data on the geographic distribution of L. serriola were assembled through a literature search as well as through floristic and herbarium surveys. Maps of the spread of L. serriola in Central and Northern Europe were prepared based on herbarium data. The spread was assessed more precisely in Germany, Austria and Great Britain by pooling herbarium and literature data. We modelled the bioclimatic niche of the species using occurrence and climatic data covering the last century to generate projections of suitable habitats under the climatic conditions of five time periods. We tested whether the observed distribution of L. serriola could be explained for each time period, assuming that the climatic niche of the species was conserved across time. Results The species has spread northwards since the beginning of the 19th century. We show that climate warming in Europe increased the number of sites suitable for the species at northern latitudes. Until the late 1970s, the distribution of the species corresponded to the climatically suitable sites available. For the last two decades, however, we could not show any significant relationship between the increase in suitable sites and the distributional range change of L. serriola. However, we highlight potential areas the species could spread to in the future (Great Britain, southern Scandinavia and the Swedish coast). It is predominantly non-climatic influences of global change that have contributed to its rapid spread. Main conclusions The observation that colonizing species are not filling their climatically suitable range might imply that, potentially, other ruderal species could expand far beyond their current range. Our work highlights the importance of historical floristic and herbarium data for understanding the expansion of a species. Such historical distributional data can provide valuable information for those planning the management of contemporary environmental problems, such as species responses to environmental change.