La Organización de Cooperación de Shanghái (OCS): ¿una alianza estratégica Sino-Rusa para el control de Asia Central? (2001-2014)

La presente monografía pretende analizar en qué medida el co-liderazgo sino-ruso de la Organización de Cooperación de Shanghái puede condicionar la hegemonía estadounidense en Asia Central. Esta investigación defiende que los objetivos del co-liderazgo sino-ruso de la OCS - garantizar un orden multipolar del Sistema Internacional; obtener el acceso, control y explotación de los recursos (naturales, minerales e hídricos); disminuir la influencia política y militar de Estados Unidos en dicho pivote geopolítico - evidencian una contraposición al código geopolítico estadounidense en Asia Central, lo cual genera un limitante a su proyecto de hegemonía en la región. Para sustentar lo anterior se utilizan categorías analíticas propias de la Geopolítica de autores como Zbigniew Brzezinski, Saul Cohen y Peter Taylor, las cuales se contrastan con las estrategias de Rusia, China y Estados Unidos en Asia Central.

An evaluation of the simulated water balance of Eurasia and northern Africa at 6000 yr B.P. using lake status data

Changes in the water balance of Eurasia and northern Africa in response to insolation forcing at 6000 y BP simulated by five atmospheric general circulation models have been compared with observations of changes in lake status. All of the simulations show enhancement of the Asian summer monsoon and of the high pressure cells over the Pacific and Central Asia and the Middle East, causing wetter conditions in northern India and southern China and drier conditions along the Chinese coast and west of the monsoon core. All of the models show enhancement of the African monsoon, causing wetter conditions in the zone between ca 10–20 °N. Four of the models show conditions wetter than present in southern Europe and drier than present in northern Europe. Three of the models show conditions similar to present in the mid-latitude continental interior, while the remaining models show conditions somewhat drier than present. The extent and location of each of the simulated changes varies between the models, as does the mechanism producing these changes. The lake data confirm some features of the simulations, but indicate discrepancies between observed and simulated climates. For example, the data show: (1) conditions wetter than present in central Asia, from India to northern China and Mongolia, indicating that the simulated Asian monsoon expansion is too small; (2) conditions wetter than present between ca. 10–30 °N in Africa, indicating that the simulated African monsoon expansion is too small; (3) that northern Europe was drier, but the area of significantly drier conditions was more localized (around the Baltic) than shown in the simulations; (4) that southern Europe was wetter than present, apparently consistent with the simulations, but pollen data suggest that this reflects an increase in summer rainfall whereas the models show winter precipitation, and (5) that the mid-latitude continental interior was generally wetter than present.

Late Quaternary lake-level record from northern Eurasia

Lake records from northern Eurasia show regionally coherent patterns of changes during the late Quaternary. Lakes peripheral to the Scandinavian ice sheet were lower than those today but lakes in the Mediterranean zone were high at the glacial maximum, reflecting the dominance of glacial anticyclonic conditions in northern Europe and a southward shift of the Westerlies. The influence of the glacial anticyclonic circulation attenuated through the late glacial period, and the Westerlies gradually shifted northward, such that drier conditions south of the ice sheet were confined to a progressively narrower zone and the Mediterranean became drier. The early Holocene shows a gradual shift to conditions wetter than present in central Asia, associated with the expanded Asian monsoon, and in the Mediterranean, in response to local, monsoon-type circulation. There is no evidence of mid-continental aridity in northern Eurasia during the mid-Holocene. In contrast, the circum-Baltic region was drier, reflecting the increased incidence of blocking anticyclones centered on Scandinavia in summer. There is a gradual transition to modern conditions after ca. 5000 yr B.P. Although these broad-scale patterns are interrupted by shorter term fluctuations, the long-term trends in lake behavior show a clear response to changes in insolation and glaciation.

Additional observations on the gross morphology and microstructure of Baccaconularia Hughes, Gunderson et Weedon, 2000, a Cambrian (Furongian) conulariid from the north-central USA

Baccaconularia Hughes, Gunderson et Weedon, 2000, from the Furongian Series (Cambrian System) of the north-central USA, has been interpreted as a conulariid cnidarian, based on a suite of gross morphological similarities shared only with other post-Cambrian genera currently assigned to this group. Closely spaced, squarish to subrectangular facial nodes of Baccaconularia are aligned in distinct longitudinal files. Nodes also display a subtler, more or less rectilinear transverse alignment, though this pattern commonly is disrupted by offset parallel to the longitudinal files. In their shape and pattern of arrangement, the nodes of Baccaconularia are most similar to the squarish to elongate nodes of Pseudoconularia Bouček, 1939. Longitudinal node files of Baccaconularia may also be compared with the longitudinal facial ridges of Conularia cambria Walcott, 1890 from the Furongian of Wisconsin. Apical angles of Baccaconularia range from approximately 13° to 14.5°. Scanning electron imaging of B. cf. robinsoni shows that its thin, phosphatic skeleton is finely lamellar, with the thickness of individual lamellae measuring approximately 1 μm. The skeleton also exhibits microscopic circular pores and crater-like pits that range from approximately 5 to 10 μm in diameter. These pores and pits are similar in size, geometry, areal density and pattern of arrangement to those of many post-Cambrian conulariids. Microscopic circular pores are documented here for the first time in the genus Archaeoconularia Bouček, 1939 from the Upper Ordovician of the Czech Republic. Although the origin of the pores and pits is open to alternative interpretations, the discovery of these features and fine lamination in Baccaconularia strengthens the argument that this genus is a Cambrian conulariid. © 2006 Nanjing Institute of Geology and Palaeontology, CAS.

Cenozoic palaeoclimate reconstructions from 35 sites in Central Europe

Continental climate evolution of Central Europe has been reconstructed quantitatively for the last 45 million years providing inferred data on mean annual temperature and precipitation, and winter and summer temperatures. Although some regional effects occur, the European Cenozoic continental climate record correlates well with the global oxygen isotope record from marine environments. During the last 45 million years, continental cooling is especially pronounced for inferred winter temperatures but hardly observable from summer temperatures. Correspondingly, Cenozoic cooling in Central Europe is directly associated with an increase of seasonality. In contrast, inferred Cenozoic mean annual precipitation remained relatively stable, indicating the importance of latent heat transport throughout the Cenozoic. Moreover, our data support the concept that changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, although linked to climate changes, were not the major driving force of Cenozoic cooling.

Is the "Dubai model" a new paradigm for growth and investment strategies for oil-based economies? Case study: Eurasia. ACES Working Papers No. 8, 2008

The first part of the paper addresses the theoretical background of economic growth and competitive advantage models. Although there is a whole set of research on a relationship between foreign direct investments and economic growth, little has been said on foreign direct investments and national competitive advantage with respect to economic growth of oil and gas abundant countries of Middle East and Central Asia. The second part of our paper introduces the framework of the so-called "Dubai Model" in detail and outlines the key components necessary to develop sustainable comparative advantage for the oil-rich economies. The third part proceeds with the methodology employed to measure the success of the "Dubai Model" in the UAE and in application to other regions. The last part brings the results and investigates the degree to which other oil and gas countries in the region (i.e. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Iran) have adopted the so-called "Dubai Model". It also examines if the Dubai Model is being employed in the Eurasian (Central Asian) oil and gas regions of Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The objective is to gauge if the Eurasian economies are employing the traditional growth strategies of oil-rich non-OECD countries in managing their natural resources or are they adopting the newer non-traditional model of economic growth, such as the "Dubai Model."

Archaeological Identification and Significance of ÉSAG (Agricultural Storage Pits) at Kaman-Kalehöyük, Central Anatolia

Evidence for the presence of storage pits described in Hittite texts by the Sumerogram "ÉSAG" is presented from Kaman-Kalehöyük, a multi-period tell site in central Turkey occupied during the second and first millennia BC. Small earthen pits matching the description of "ÉSAG" were part of the normal suite of domestic installations at the site throughout the period. Similar to pits seen across western Eurasia, they were probably used to store seed corn or seed for trade. Large earthen pits (>7m in diameter) were also present that matched the description of the "ÉSAG" form, and in some cases contained archaeological cereal remains. Evidence from Kaman shows "ÉSAG" were part of Anatolian life for at least 4,000 years and suggests that the term was generic for lined, earthen storage pits. The presence of so many small pits at Kaman-Kalehöyük showed that it was an agricultural production site for much of its existence. The appearance of the large pits, confined to the Hittite period, reflects centralised control of grain supply, probably by the Hittite Kingdom, and fits a pattern seen at other sites in the region during the second millennium BC. /// Hitit metinlerinde Sumerogram "ÉSAG" ile tanimlanan depo çukurlarinin varliğina dair kanit, Orta Anadolu'da M.Ö. İkinci ve Birinci binde iskan edilmiş çok dönemli bir yerleşim alani olan Kaman-Kalehöyük'ten taninmaktadir. Küçük toprak çukurlar "ÉSAG" in tanimlamasina uygun olarak bu dönem süresince normal ev düzeninin bir parçasi olarak karşimiza çikmiştir. Çukurlar, Bati Avrasya'daki benzer çukurlar gibi olasilikla ticaret maksadi ile misir tohumu ya da tohum muhafaza etmişlerdir. "ÉSAG" formunun tanimina uyan büyük toprak çukurlara (çapi 7m. den büyük) rağmen bunlarin tahil depolama ile ilgili bağlantilari tam olarak belirlenmemiştir. Kaman'daki delil, "ÉSAG" in en az 4,000 yildir Anadolu yaşaminin bir parçasi olduğunu ve bu sözcüğün sivanmiş toprak çukurlar için kullanildiğini işaret etmektedir. Kaman-Kalehöyük'te ele geçen birçok küçük çukur, yerleşimin varliğini sürdürdüǧü sürecin büyük bir bölümünde zirai üretim yapildiğini göstermektedir. Hitit Döneminde büyük çukurlarin ortaya çikmasi muhtemelen Hitit Kralliği tarafindan gerçekleştirilen tahil tedarikinin merkezi kontrolünü yansitmakta ve M.Ö. İkinci binde bu bölgedeki diğer yerleşim alanlarinda görülen şekle uymaktadir.

The combined impact of urban heat island, thermal bridge effect of buildings and future climate change on the potential overwintering of Phlebotomus species in a Central European metropolis

Leishmaniasis is one of the most important emerging vector-borne diseases in Western Eurasia. Although winter minimum temperatures limit the present geographical distribution of the vector Phlebotomus species, the heat island effect of the cities and the anthropogenic heat emission together may provide the appropriate environment for the overwintering of sand flies. We studied the climate tempering effect of thermal bridges and the heat island effect in Budapest, Hungary. Thermal imaging was used to measure the heat surplus of heat bridges. The winter heat island effect of the city was evaluated by numerical analysis of the measurements of the Aqua sensor of satellite Terra. We found that the surface temperature of thermal bridges can be at least 3-7 °C higher than the surrounding environment. The heat emission of thermal bridges and the urban heat island effect together can cause at least 10 °C higher minimum ambient temperature in winter nights than the minimum temperature of the peri-urban areas. This milder micro-climate of the built environment can enable the potential overwintering of some important European Phlebotomus species. The anthropogenic heat emission of big cities may explain the observed isolated northward populations of Phlebotomus ariasi in Paris and Phlebotomus neglectus in the agglomeration of Budapest.

The European Union Foreign Policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia: The Limitations of the Opening towards the East

This article intends to study the evolution of the European Union foreign policy in the Southern Caucasus and Central Area throughout the Post-Cold War era. The aim is to analyze Brussels’ fundamental interests and limitations in the area, the strategies it has implemented in the last few years, and the extent to which the EU has been able to undermine the regional hegemons’ traditional supremacy. As will be highlighted, the Community’s chronic weaknesses, the local determination to preserve sovereignty and an increasing international geopolitical competition undermine any European aspiration to become a pre-eminent actor at the heart of the Eurasian continent in the near future.

The central role of communication in developing trust and its effect on employee involvement

Communication plays an important role in the development of trust within an organization. While a number of researchers have studied the relationship of trust and communication, little is known about the specific linkages among quality of information, quantity of information, openness, trust, and outcomes such as employee involvement. This study tests these relationships using communication audit data from 218 employees in the oil industry. Using mediation analysis and structural equation modeling, we found that quality of information predicted trust of one's coworkers and supervisors while adequacy of information predicted one's trust of top management. Trust of coworkers, supervisors, and top management influenced perceptions of organizational openness, which in turn influenced employees' ratings of their own level of involvement in the organization's goals. This study suggests that the relationship between communication and trust is complex, and that simple strategies focusing on either quality or quantity of information may be ineffective for dealing with all members in an organization.

Forecasting trends in the Brisbane central business district office market

The Queensland Department of Public Works (DPW) holds a significant interest in the Brisbane Central Business District (CBD) in controlling approximately 20 percent of the office space within its confines. This comprises a total of 333,903 square metres of space, of which 170,111 square metres is owned and 163,792 square metres is leased from the private sector. The department’s nominal ownership extends to several enduring, landmark buildings as well as several modern office towers. The portfolio includes the oldest building in the CBD, being the former Commissariat Stores building and one of the newest, a 15,000 square metre office tower under construction at 33 Charlotte Street.

Corneal sensitivity and slit scanning in vivo confocal microscopy of the subbasal nerve plexus of the normal central and peripheral human cornea

Purpose: To determine the subbasal nerve density and tortuosity at 5 corneal locations and to investigate whether these microstructural observations correlate with corneal sensitivity. Method: Sixty eyes of 60 normal human subjects were recruited into 1 of 3 age groups, group 1: aged ,35 years, group 2: aged 35–50 years, and group 3: aged .50 years. All eyes were examined using slit-lamp biomicroscopy, noncontact corneal esthesiometry, and slit scanning in vivo confocal microscopy. Results: The mean subbasal nerve density and the mean corneal sensitivity were greatest centrally (14,731 6 6056 mm/mm2 and 0.38 6 0.21 millibars, respectively) and lowest in the nasal mid periphery (7850 6 4947 mm/mm2 and 0.49 6 0.25 millibars, respectively). The mean subbasal nerve tortuosity coefficient was greatest in the temporal mid periphery (27.3 6 6.4) and lowest in the superior mid periphery (19.3 6 14.1). There was no significant difference in mean total subbasal nerve density between age groups. However, corneal sensation (P = 0.001) and subbasal nerve tortuosity (P = 0.004) demonstrated significant differences between age groups. Subbasal nerve density only showed significant correlations with corneal sensitivity threshold in the temporal cornea and with subbasal nerve tortuosity in the inferior and nasal cornea. However, these correlations were weak. Conclusions: This study quantitatively analyzes living human corneal nerve structure and an aspect of nerve function. There is no strong correlation between subbasal nerve density and corneal sensation. This study provides useful baseline data for the normal living human cornea at central and mid-peripheral locations