Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

A investigação da construção de modelos no estudo de um tópico de física utilizando um ambiente de modelagem computacional qualitativo

A integração de tecnologias de informação e comunicação no contexto educacional tem sido tema de diversos congressos e simpósios ao redor do mundo e no Brasil. Neste sentido, vários estudos têm sido realizados com o objetivo de se obter metodologias que tornem efetivo o emprego das novas tecnologias no ensino. Este artigo mostra um estudo que investigou a interação entre estudantes universitários da área de ciências exatas e um ambiente de modelagem computacional qualitativo em atividades de modelagem expressiva. Os resultados obtidos mostram que os estudantes foram capazes de criar e modificar o modelo do sistema proposto a partir de suas próprias concepções.

GIS from a cultural heritage perspective: when past and future collide

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciência e Sistemas de Informação Geográfica

Urban land cover change detection analysis and modeling spatio-temporal Growth dynamics using Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques: A case study of Dhaka, Bangladesh

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Spatio-Temporal data modeling in response to deforestation monitoring (a case study of small region in Riau Province, Indonesia)

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Urban land use and land cover change analysis and modeling a case study area Malatya, Turkey

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Minimal computation structures for visual information applications based on printed electronics

In the early nineties, Mark Weiser wrote a series of seminal papers that introduced the concept of Ubiquitous Computing. According to Weiser, computers require too much attention from the user, drawing his focus from the tasks at hand. Instead of being the centre of attention, computers should be so natural that they would vanish into the human environment. Computers become not only truly pervasive but also effectively invisible and unobtrusive to the user. This requires not only for smaller, cheaper and low power consumption computers, but also for equally convenient display solutions that can be harmoniously integrated into our surroundings. With the advent of Printed Electronics, new ways to link the physical and the digital worlds became available. By combining common printing techniques such as inkjet printing with electro-optical functional inks, it is starting to be possible not only to mass-produce extremely thin, flexible and cost effective electronic circuits but also to introduce electronic functionalities into products where it was previously unavailable. Indeed, Printed Electronics is enabling the creation of novel sensing and display elements for interactive devices, free of form factor. At the same time, the rise in the availability and affordability of digital fabrication technologies, namely of 3D printers, to the average consumer is fostering a new industrial (digital) revolution and the democratisation of innovation. Nowadays, end-users are already able to custom design and manufacture on demand their own physical products, according to their own needs. In the future, they will be able to fabricate interactive digital devices with user-specific form and functionality from the comfort of their homes. This thesis explores how task-specific, low computation, interactive devices capable of presenting dynamic visual information can be created using Printed Electronics technologies, whilst following an approach based on the ideals behind Personal Fabrication. Focus is given on the use of printed electrochromic displays as a medium for delivering dynamic digital information. According to the architecture of the displays, several approaches are highlighted and categorised. Furthermore, a pictorial computation model based on extended cellular automata principles is used to programme dynamic simulation models into matrix-based electrochromic displays. Envisaged applications include the modelling of physical, chemical, biological, and environmental phenomena.

An integrated model for simulation of construction phasing of arch concrete dams

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Civil Engineering

MIGCLIM: Predicting plant distribution and dispersal in a changing climate

Many studies have forecasted the possible impact of climate change on plant distribution using models based on ecological niche theory. In their basic implementation, niche-based models do not constrain predictions by dispersal limitations. Hence, most niche-based modelling studies published so far have assumed dispersal to be either unlimited or null. However, depending on the rate of climatic change, the landscape fragmentation and the dispersal capabilities of individual species, these assumptions are likely to prove inaccurate, leading to under- or overestimation of future species distributions and yielding large uncertainty between these two extremes. As a result, the concepts of "potentially suitable" and "potentially colonisable" habitat are expected to differ significantly. To quantify to what extent these two concepts can differ, we developed MIGCLIM, a model simulating plant dispersal under climate change and landscape fragmentation scenarios. MIGCLIM implements various parameters, such as dispersal distance, increase in reproductive potential over time, barriers to dispersal or long distance dispersal. Several simulations were run for two virtual species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps, by varying dispersal distance and other parameters. Each simulation covered the hundred-year period 2001-2100 and three different IPCC-based temperature warming scenarios were considered. Our results indicate that: (i) using realistic parameter values, the future potential distributions generated using MIGCLIM can differ significantly (up to more than 95% decrease in colonized surface) from those that ignore dispersal; (ii) this divergence increases both with increasing climate warming and over longer time periods; (iii) the uncertainty associated with the warming scenario can be nearly as large as the one related to dispersal parameters; (iv) accounting for dispersal, even roughly, can importantly reduce uncertainty in projections.

Estado situacional de los modelos basados en agentes y su impacto en la investigación organizacional

En un mundo hiperconectado, dinámico y cargado de incertidumbre como el actual, los métodos y modelos analíticos convencionales están mostrando sus limitaciones. Las organizaciones requieren, por tanto, herramientas útiles que empleen tecnología de información y modelos de simulación computacional como mecanismos para la toma de decisiones y la resolución de problemas. Una de las más recientes, potentes y prometedoras es el modelamiento y la simulación basados en agentes (MSBA). Muchas organizaciones, incluidas empresas consultoras, emplean esta técnica para comprender fenómenos, hacer evaluación de estrategias y resolver problemas de diversa índole. Pese a ello, no existe (hasta donde conocemos) un estado situacional acerca del MSBA y su aplicación a la investigación organizacional. Cabe anotar, además, que por su novedad no es un tema suficientemente difundido y trabajado en Latinoamérica. En consecuencia, este proyecto pretende elaborar un estado situacional sobre el MSBA y su impacto sobre la investigación organizacional.

Critical behavior of a contact process with aperiodic transition rates

We performed Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the steady-state critical behavior of a one-dimensional contact process with an aperiodic distribution of rates of transition. As in the presence of randomness, spatial fluctuations can lead to changes of critical behavior. For sufficiently weak fluctuations, we give numerical evidence to show that there is no departure from the universal critical behavior of the underlying uniform model. For strong spatial fluctuations, the analysis of the data indicates a change of critical universality class.

Cellular automaton model for molecular traffic jams

We consider the time evolution of an exactly solvable cellular automaton with random initial conditions both in the large-scale hydrodynamic limit and on the microscopic level. This model is a version of the totally asymmetric simple exclusion process with sublattice parallel update and thus may serve as a model for studying traffic jams in systems of self-driven particles. We study the emergence of shocks from the microscopic dynamics of the model. In particular, we introduce shock measures whose time evolution we can compute explicitly, both in the thermodynamic limit and for open boundaries where a boundary-induced phase transition driven by the motion of a shock occurs. The motion of the shock, which results from the collective dynamics of the exclusion particles, is a random walk with an internal degree of freedom that determines the jump direction. This type of hopping dynamics is reminiscent of some transport phenomena in biological systems.

A Cellular Automaton Approach to Spatial Electric Load Forecasting

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Modelagem dinâmica espacial aplicada na avaliação das mudanças da cobertura da terra no entorno de dutos utilizando autômatos celulares: estudo de caso duto ORBEL

Pós-graduação em Geociências e Meio Ambiente - IGCE