Recreating the South Sea bubble: Lessons from an experiment in financial history

Major bubble episodes are rare events. In this paper, we examine what factors might cause some asset price bubbles to become very large. We recreate, in a laboratory setting, some of the specific institutional features investors in the South Sea Company faced in 1720. Several factors have been proposed as potentially contributing to one of the greatest periods of asset overvaluation in history: an intricate debt-for-equity swap, deferred payment for these shares, and the possibility of default on the deferred payments. We consider which aspect might have had the most impact in creating the South Sea bubble. The results of the experiment suggest that the company?s attempt to exchange its shares for government debt was the single biggest contributor to the stock price explosion, because of the manner in which the swap affected fundamental value. Issuing new shares with only partial payments required, in conjunction with the debt-equity swap, also had a significant effect on the size of the bubble. Limited contract enforcement, on the other hand, does not appear to have contributed significantly.

Anomalous Proper-Motions in the Cygnus Super Bubble Region

In an analysis of proper motions of O and B stars contained the Input Catalogue for Hipparcos, we have found a clear deviation from the expected pattern of systematic motions which can be readily identified with the associations Cygnus OB1 and Cygnus OB9, located near de the edge of the Cygnus Superbubble. Teha anomalous motions are directed outwards from the center of the Superbubble, which is coincident with tha association Cygnus OB2. This seems to support the hypothesis of a strong stellar and supernova activity in Cygnus 0B2 giving rise to the Superbubble and, by means of gravitational instabilities in its boundaries, to Cygnus 0B1 and Cygnus OB9. New uvby-beta aperture photometry of selected O and B stars in the area of Cygnus OB1 and Cygnus OB9 is also presented and analyzed in this paper.

Dynamics of a paramagnetic colloidal particle driven on a magnetic-bubble lattice

We present a theoretical study of the recently observed dynamical regimes of paramagnetic colloidal particles externally driven above a regular lattice of magnetic bubbles [P. Tierno, T. H. Johansen, and T. M. Fischer, Phys. Rev. Lett. 99, 038303 (2007)]. An external precessing magnetic field alters the potential generated by the surface of the film in such a way to either drive the particle circularly around one bubble, ballistically through the array, or in triangular orbits on the interstitial regions between the bubbles. In the ballistic regime, we observe different trajectories performed by the particles phase locked with the external driving. Superdiffusive motion, which was experimentally found bridging the localized and delocalized dynamics, emerge only by introducing a certain degree of randomness into the bubbles size distribution.

"Soap-Bubble" visualization and quantitative analysis of 3D coronary magnetic resonance angiograms.

In order to compare coronary magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) data obtained with different scanning methodologies, adequate visualization and presentation of the coronary MRA data need to be ensured. Furthermore, an objective quantitative comparison between images acquired with different scanning methods is desirable. To address this need, a software tool ("Soap-Bubble") that facilitates visualization and quantitative comparison of 3D volume targeted coronary MRA data was developed. In the present implementation, the user interactively specifies a curved subvolume (enclosed in the 3D coronary MRA data set) that closely encompasses the coronary arterial segments. With a 3D Delaunay triangulation and a parallel projection, this enables the simultaneous display of multiple coronary segments in one 2D representation. For objective quantitative analysis, frequently explored quantitative parameters such as signal-to-noise ratio (SNR); contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR); and vessel length, sharpness, and diameter can be assessed. The present tool supports visualization and objective, quantitative comparisons of coronary MRA data obtained with different scanning methods. The first results obtained in healthy adults and in patients with coronary artery disease are presented.

Gas-liquid mass transfer in bubbly flow: Estimation of mass transfer, bubble size and reactor performance in various applications

Gas-liquid mass transfer is an important issue in the design and operation of many chemical unit operations. Despite its importance, the evaluation of gas-liquid mass transfer is not straightforward due to the complex nature of the phenomena involved. In this thesis gas-liquid mass transfer was evaluated in three different gas-liquid reactors in a traditional way by measuring the volumetric mass transfer coefficient (kLa). The studied reactors were a bubble column with a T-junction two-phase nozzle for gas dispersion, an industrial scale bubble column reactor for the oxidation of tetrahydroanthrahydroquinone and a concurrent downflow structured bed.The main drawback of this approach is that the obtained correlations give only the average volumetric mass transfer coefficient, which is dependent on average conditions. Moreover, the obtained correlations are valid only for the studied geometry and for the chemical system used in the measurements. In principle, a more fundamental approach is to estimate the interfacial area available for mass transfer from bubble size distributions obtained by solution of population balance equations. This approach has been used in this thesis by developing a population balance model for a bubble column together with phenomenological models for bubble breakage and coalescence. The parameters of the bubble breakage rate and coalescence rate models were estimated by comparing the measured and calculated bubble sizes. The coalescence models always have at least one experimental parameter. This is because the bubble coalescence depends on liquid composition in a way which is difficult to evaluate using known physical properties. The coalescence properties of some model solutions were evaluated by measuring the time that a bubble rests at the free liquid-gas interface before coalescing (the so-calledpersistence time or rest time). The measured persistence times range from 10 msup to 15 s depending on the solution. The coalescence was never found to be instantaneous. The bubble oscillates up and down at the interface at least a coupleof times before coalescence takes place. The measured persistence times were compared to coalescence times obtained by parameter fitting using measured bubble size distributions in a bubble column and a bubble column population balance model. For short persistence times, the persistence and coalescence times are in good agreement. For longer persistence times, however, the persistence times are at least an order of magnitude longer than the corresponding coalescence times from parameter fitting. This discrepancy may be attributed to the uncertainties concerning the estimation of energy dissipation rates, collision rates and mechanisms and contact times of the bubbles.

Effect of compressibility in bubble formation in closed systems

We analyze the stability of small bubbles in a closed system with fixed volume, temperature, and number of molecules. We show that there exists a minimum stable size of a bubble. Thus there exists a range of densities where no stable bubbles are allowed and the system has a homogeneous density which is lower than the coexistence density of the liquid. This becomes possible due to the finite liquid compressibility. Capillary analysis within the developed"modified bubble" model illustrates that the existence of the minimum bubble size is associated to the compressibility and it is not possible when the liquid is strictly incompressible. This finding is expected to have very important implications in cavitation and boiling.

Emergent patterns of social organization in captive Cercocebus torquatus: Testing the GrooFiWorld agent-based model

We empirically applied the GrooFiWorld agent-based model (Puga-González et al. 2009) in a group of captive mangabeys (Cercocebus torquatus). We analysed several measurements related to aggression and affiliative patterns. The group adopted a combination of despotic and egalitarian behaviours resulting from the behavioural flexibility observed in the Cercopithecinae subfamily. Our study also demonstrates that the GrooFiWorld agent-based model can be extended to other members of the Cercopithecinae subfamily generating parsimonious hypotheses related to the social organization.

Agonistic strategies and spatial distribution in captive sooty mangabeys (Cercocebus atys lunulatus)

The aim of this article is to study the relationship between the dominance hierarchy and the spatial distribution of a group of captive sooty mangabeys (Cercocebus atys). The analysis of the spatial distribution of individuals in relation to their rank in the dominance hierarchy showed a clear linear hierarchy in which the dominant individual was located in central positions with regard to the rest of the group members. The large open enclosure where the group was living allowed them to adopt a high-risk agonistic strategy in which individuals attacked other individuals whose rank was significantly different from their own. The comparison of the results with a previous study of mangabeys showed that, although the dominance ranks of both groups were similar, the fact that they lived in facilities with different layouts caused different agonistic strategies to emerge and allowed the dominant individual to assume different spatial locations.

Fischer-Tropsch Slurry Bubble Column Reactor Modeling

The literature part of the work reviews overall Fischer-Tropsch process, Fischer-Tropsch reactors and catalysts. Fundamentals of Fischer-Tropsch modeling are also presented. The emphasis is on the reactor unit. Comparison of the reactors and the catalysts is carried out to choose the suitable reactor setup for the modeling work. The effects of the operation conditions are also investigated. Slurry bubble column reactor model operating with cobalt catalyst is developed by taking into account the mass transfer of the reacting components (CO and H2) and the consumption of the reactants in the liquid phase. The effect of hydrostatic pressure and the change in total mole flow rate in gas phase are taken into account in calculation of the solubilities. The hydrodynamics, reaction kinetics and product composition are determined according to literature. The cooling system and furthermore the required heat transfer area and number of cooling tubes are also determined. The model is implemented in Matlab software. Commercial scale reactor setup is modeled and the behavior of the model is investigated. The possible inaccuraries are evaluated and the suggestions for the future work are presented. The model is also integrated to Aspen Plus process simulation software, which enables the usage of the model in more extensive Fischer-Tropsch process simulations. Commercial scale reactor of diameter of 7 m and height of 30 m was modeled. The capacity of the reactor was calculated to be about 9 800 barrels/day with CO conversion of 75 %. The behavior of the model was realistic and results were in the right range. The highest uncertainty to model was estimated to be caused by the determination of the kinetic rate.

La captive

Soitinnus: Lauluääni (sopraano), ork.

Myocardial stereology in captive Callithrix kuhlii (Callitrichidae, Primates): healthy animals versus animals affected by wasting marmoset syndrome (WMS)

This study comprised 12 hearts of Wied´s black-tufted-ear marmoset, Callithrix kuhlii (Coimbra-Filho 1985), 6 with Wasting Marmoset Syndrome (WMS) and 6 non-affected. Biometry was performed after death. After necropsy, the hearts were weighed, dissected, fixed in 10% formalin solution (pH 7.2), and processed for optical microscopy at 5µm sections stained with Haematoxylin-Eosin. Quantitative analysis was performed by stereological techniques. The statistical differences between the biometrical and stereological parameters were assessed by the Mann-Whitney test. The morphometric results showed that WMS causes a significant reduction in body and cardiac weights, and also in the volume density of vessels in those animals. Further studies are necessary to understand some of the results shown here.

Evaluation of Bubble Formation and Break Up in Suppression Pools by Using Pattern Recognition Methods

During a possible loss of coolant accident in BWRs, a large amount of steam will be released from the reactor pressure vessel to the suppression pool. Steam will be condensed into the suppression pool causing dynamic and structural loads to the pool. The formation and break up of bubbles can be measured by visual observation using a suitable pattern recognition algorithm. The aim of this study was to improve the preliminary pattern recognition algorithm, developed by Vesa Tanskanen in his doctoral dissertation, by using MATLAB. Video material from the PPOOLEX test facility, recorded during thermal stratification and mixing experiments, was used as a reference in the development of the algorithm. The developed algorithm consists of two parts: the pattern recognition of the bubbles and the analysis of recognized bubble images. The bubble recognition works well, but some errors will appear due to the complex structure of the pool. The results of the image analysis were reasonable. The volume and the surface area of the bubbles were not evaluated. Chugging frequencies calculated by using FFT fitted well into the results of oscillation frequencies measured in the experiments. The pattern recognition algorithm works in the conditions it is designed for. If the measurement configuration will be changed, some modifications have to be done. Numerous improvements are proposed for the future 3D equipment.

Anti-Rickettsia spp. antibodies in free-ranging and captive capybaras from southern Brazil

Capybaras (Hydrochaeris hydrochaeris) are among the main hosts of Amblyomma spp. ticks, which is able to transmit Rickettsia species to human beings and animals. Since they are often infested with potential vector ticks, capybaras may be used as sentinels for rickettsiosis, such as the Brazilian Spotted Fever. The aim of the present study was to determine the prevalence of antibodies against Rickettsia spp. using the indirect immunofluorescence assay (IFA) in 21 free-ranging and 10 captive animals from the Zoological Park of the 'Bela Vista Biological Sanctuary' (BVBS), Itaipu Binational, Foz do Iguaçu, Southern Brazil. Antigens of six rickettsial species already identified in Brazil (Rickettsia rickettsii, R. parkeri, R. bellii, R. rhipicephali, R. amblyommii and R. felis) were used for IFA. Ticks from each capybara were collected for posterior taxonomic identification. A total of 19 (61.3%) samples reacted to at least one of tested species. Seropositivity was found in 14 (45.2%), 12 (38.7%), 5 (16.1%), 4 (12.9%), 3 (9.7%) and 3 (9.7%) animals for R. rickettsii, R. bellii, R. parkeri, R. amblyommii, R. felis and R. rhipicephali, respectively. Two captive capybaras presented suggestive titers of R. rickettsii infection and one sample showed homologous reaction to R. parkeri. Only one free-ranging capybara presented evidence R. bellii infection. Ticks collected on capybaras were identified as Amblyomma dubitatum e Amblyomma sp. Results evidenced the rickettsial circulation in the area, suggesting a potential role of capybaras on bacterial life cycle.