Dissociation between the impact of evidence on eye movement target choice and confidence judgements

It has been suggested that the evidence used to support a decision to move our eyes and the confidence we have in that decision are derived from a common source. Alternatively, confidence may be based on further post-decisional processes. In three experiments we examined this. In Experiment 1, participants chose between two targets on the basis of varying levels of evidence (i.e., the direction of motion coherence in a Random-Dot-Kinematogram). They indicated this choice by making a saccade to one of two targets and then indicated their confidence. Saccade trajectory deviation was taken as a measure of the inhibition of the non-selected target. We found that as evidence increased so did confidence and deviations of saccade trajectory away from the non-selected target. However, a correlational analysis suggested they were not related. In Experiment 2 an option to opt-out of the choice was offered on some trials if choice proved too difficult. In this way we isolated trials on which confidence in target selection was high (i.e., when the option to opt-out was available but not taken). Again saccade trajectory deviations were found not to differ in relation to confidence. In Experiment 3 we directly manipulated confidence, such that participants had high or low task confidence. They showed no differences in saccade trajectory deviations. These results support post-decisional accounts of confidence: evidence supporting the decision to move the eyes is reflected in saccade control, but the confidence that we have in that choice is subject to further post-decisional processes.

A comparison of methods for constructing confidence intervals after phase II/III clinical trials

Recently, in order to accelerate drug development, trials that use adaptive seamless designs such as phase II/III clinical trials have been proposed. Phase II/III clinical trials combine traditional phases II and III into a single trial that is conducted in two stages. Using stage 1 data, an interim analysis is performed to answer phase II objectives and after collection of stage 2 data, a final confirmatory analysis is performed to answer phase III objectives. In this paper we consider phase II/III clinical trials in which, at stage 1, several experimental treatments are compared to a control and the apparently most effective experimental treatment is selected to continue to stage 2. Although these trials are attractive because the confirmatory analysis includes phase II data from stage 1, the inference methods used for trials that compare a single experimental treatment to a control and do not have an interim analysis are no longer appropriate. Several methods for analysing phase II/III clinical trials have been developed. These methods are recent and so there is little literature on extensive comparisons of their characteristics. In this paper we review and compare the various methods available for constructing confidence intervals after phase II/III clinical trials.

Can we have confidence in generic structures?

The system dynamics concept of `generic structure' is dividable into three sub-types. This paper analyses the validity of these three, using both practical and theoretical perspectives. Firstly, a new set of measures is developed for generating validity-`confidence'-amongst a group using generic structures in a practical modelling situation. It is concluded that different confidence criteria are implicitly employed; there is an argument for trading-off model precision and analytical quality for simplicity and ease of use and future research is needed to combine these `process' and `content' aspects of confidence. From a theoretical stance it is shown that with two of the sub-types a scientific notion of confidence is achievable whereas the third (`archetypes') involves merely metaphorical thinking. It is concluded that the theoretical status of archetypes requires further development, whilst ensuring that its benefits are retained.

Differential effects of neuromuscular blockers on twitches and tetani in the isolated rat muscle: a multiple comparison study using simultaneous confidence intervals

In the present work a comparative quantitative evaluation of the differential effects of neuromuscular blockers on twitches and tetani was performed, encompassing: atracurium, cisatracurium, mivacurium, pancuronium, rocuronium and vecuronium. The sciatic nerve-extensor digitorum longus muscle of the rat was used, in vitro. Twitches were evoked at 0.1 Hz and tetani at 50 Hz. The differential effects of the studied compounds on twitches and tetani were statistically compared using simultaneous confidence intervals for the ratios between mean IC(50) for the block of twitches and mean IC(50) for the block of tetani. The results of ratios of mean IC(50) together with their corresponding 95% simultaneous confidence intervals were: vecuronium: 2.5 (1.8-3.5); mivacurium: 3.8 (3.0-4.9); pancuronium: 3.9 (2.0-7.6); rocuronium: 6.1 (3.8-9.9); atracurium: 9.0 (6.4-12.6); cisatracurium: 13.1 (6.0-28.4). Using the criteria that neuromuscular blockers displaying disjunct confidence intervals for the ratios of mean IC(50) differ statistically with regard to differential effects on twitches and tetani, significant differences in ratios of IC(50) were detected in the following cases: vecuronium vs. rocuronium, vs. atracurium and vs. cisatracurium and mivacurium vs: cisatracurium and vs. atracurium. The results show that the magnitude of the differential effects of neuromuscular blockers on twitches and tetani, as evaluated in the present work in the form of ratios of mean IC(50), does not depend on the chemical structure (comparing steroidal and isoquinolinic compounds), but seems to depend on differential pre- and post-synaptic effects of the compounds. It is also suggested that the greater the ability of a compound to block twitches and tetani in a differential manner, the safer is the compound from the clinical anesthesiology viewpoint.

Confidence in heuristic solutions?

Solutions to combinatorial optimization problems frequently rely on heuristics to minimize an objective function. The optimum is sought iteratively and pre-setting the number of iterations dominates in operations research applications, which implies that the quality of the solution cannot be ascertained. Deterministic bounds offer a mean of ascertaining the quality, but such bounds are available for only a limited number of heuristics and the length of the interval may be difficult to control in an application. A small, almost dormant, branch of the literature suggests using statistical principles to derive statistical bounds for the optimum. We discuss alternative approaches to derive statistical bounds. We also assess their performance by testing them on 40 test p-median problems on facility location, taken from Beasley’s OR-library, for which the optimum is known. We consider three popular heuristics for solving such location problems; simulated annealing, vertex substitution, and Lagrangian relaxation where only the last offers deterministic bounds. Moreover, we illustrate statistical bounds in the location of 71 regional delivery points of the Swedish Post. We find statistical bounds reliable and much more efficient than deterministic bounds provided that the heuristic solutions are sampled close to the optimum. Statistical bounds are also found computationally affordable.

The Role of Motivational Strategies in the Upper Elementary Classroom : A systematic literature review about teacher strategies that promote self-confidence, motivation and a conducive learning environment

The aim of this literature review is to investigate which strategies teachers use to motivate pupils to communicate orally in English. The literature review also investigates how these teacher strategies affect pupils. The methodology used for this investigation is a systematic literature review. Various databases have been used when searching for literature. Scientific articles and theses have been searched for. They have also been read and analyzed before they have become a part of this review. The results indicate that some teachers feel insecure when speaking English. Therefore Swedish is spoken in many language classrooms. Teachers speaking in front of the class is the traditional way of teaching, and it does not seem to be a strategy who influences pupils positively. If teachers speak the target language among pupils they often get more motivated and focused pupils who feel comfortable speaking English. Young pupils are fast learners. By exposing them to the English language in early ages they receive great opportunities to learn a foreign language and strengthen their self-confidence. Drama, songs and rhymes are preferable strategies to use when teaching young learners. What position teachers decide to take in the classroom is also a significant element when teaching foreign languages.

Inflation targeting, credibility and confidence crises

We study the interplay between the central bank transparency, its credibility, and the ination target level. Based on a model developed in the spirit of the global games literature, we argue that whenever a weak central bank adopts a high degree of transparency and a low target level, a bad and self conrmed type of equilibrium may arise. In this case, an over-the-target ination becomes more likely. The central bank is considered weak when favorable state of nature is required for the target to be achieved. On the other hand, if a weak central bank opts for less ambitious goals, namely lower degree of transparency and higher target level, it may avoid condence crises and ensure a unique equilibrium for the expected ination. Moreover, even after ruling out the possibility of condence crises, less ambitious goals may be desirable in order to attain higher credibility and hence a better coordination of expectations. Conversely, a low target level and a high central bank transparency are desirable whenever the economy has strong fundamentals and the target can be fullled in many states of nature.

On the contamination of confidence

Contaminação da confiança é um caso especial de incerteza Knightiana ou ambiguidade na qual o tomador de decisões está diante de não apenas uma única distribuição de probabilidades, mas sim de um conjunto de distribuições de probabilidades. A primeira parte desta tese tem o propósito de fornecer uma caracterização da contaminação da confiança e então apresentar um conjunto de axiomas comportamentais simples sob os quais as preferências de um tomador de decisões é representada pela utilidade esperada de Choquet com contaminação da confiança. A segunda parte desta tese apresenta duas aplicações econômicas de contaminação da confiança: a primeira delas generaliza o teorema de existência de equilíbrio de Nash de Dow e Werlang (o que permite apresentar uma solução explícita para o paradoxo segundo o qual os jogadores de um jogo do dilema dos prisioneiros com um número infinito de repetições não agem de acordo com o esperado pelo procedimento da indução retroativa) e a outra estuda o impacto da contaminação da confiança na escolha de portfolio.

Investment coordination failures and the confidence channel of fiscal policy

Este trabalho desenvolve um novo "canal de Confiança" da política fiscal e caracteriza a política ótima quando esse canal é levado em consideração. Para esse objetivo, utilizamos um modelo estático com (i) concorrência monopolística, (ii) custos de ajustamento fixos para investir, (iii) complementaridade estratégica devido a informação imperfeita com respeito a produtividade agregada, e (iv) bens privados como substitutos imperfeitos de bens privados. Este arcabouço acomoda a possibilidade de falhas de coordenação nos investimentos, mas apresenta um equilíbrio único. Mostramos que a política fiscal tem efeitos importantes na coordenação. Um aumento dos gastos do governo leva a uma maior demanda por bens privados. Mais importante, este também afeta as expectativas de ordem superior com relação a demanda das demais firmas, que amplifica os efeitos do aumento inicial da demanda devido a complementaridade estratégica nas decisões de investimento. Como as demais firmas estão se deparam com uma demanda maior, espera-se que estas invistam mais, que por sua vez, aumenta a demanda individual de cada firma, que aumenta os incentivos a investir. Denominamos isto como o "canal de confiança" da política fiscal. Sob a ameaça de falhas de coordenação, a política fiscal ótima prescreve produzir além do ponto em que o benefício marginal resultante do consumo de bens públicos é igual ao custo marginal desses bens. Este benefício adicional vem do fato de que a política fiscal pode ampliar a coordenação dos investimentos.

Non-asymptotic confidence bounds for the optimal value of a stochastic program

We discuss a general approach to building non-asymptotic confidence bounds for stochastic optimization problems. Our principal contribution is the observation that a Sample Average Approximation of a problem supplies upper and lower bounds for the optimal value of the problem which are essentially better than the quality of the corresponding optimal solutions. At the same time, such bounds are more reliable than “standard” confidence bounds obtained through the asymptotic approach. We also discuss bounding the optimal value of MinMax Stochastic Optimization and stochastically constrained problems. We conclude with a small simulation study illustrating the numerical behavior of the proposed bounds.