Validation and refinement of survival models for liver retransplantation

Orthotopic liver retransplantation (re-OLT) is highly controversial. The objectives of this study were to determine the validity of a recently developed United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) multivariate model using an independent cohort of patients undergoing re-OLT outside the United States, to determine whether incorporation of other variables that were incomplete in the UNOS registry would provide additional prognostic information, to develop new models combining data sets from both cohorts, and to evaluate the validity of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) in patients undergoing re-OLT. Two hundred eighty-one adult patients undergoing re-OLT (between 1986 and 1999) at 6 foreign transplant centers comprised the validation cohort. We found good agreement between actual survival and predicted survival in the validation cohort; 1-year patient survival rates in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups (as assigned by the original UNOS model) were 72%, 68%, and 36%, respectively (P < .0001). In the patients for whom the international normalized ratio (INR) of prothrombin time was available, MELD correlated with outcome following re-OLT; the median MELD scores for patients surviving at least 90 days compared with those dying within 90 days were 20.75 versus 25.9, respectively (P = .004). Utilizing both patient cohorts (n = 979), a new model, based on recipient age, total serum bilirubin, creatinine, and interval to re-OLT, was constructed (whole model χ(2) = 105, P < .0001). Using the c-statistic with 30-day, 90-day, 1-year, and 3-year mortality as the end points, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for 4 different models were compared. In conclusion, prospective validation and use of these models as adjuncts to clinical decision making in the management of patients being considered for re-OLT are warranted.

Genes, morphology and agreement: congruence in Australian anthracine bee flies (Diptera : Bombyliidae : Anthracinae)

Almost half of the 4547 described bee flies (Bombyliidae: Diptera) in the world belong to the subfamily Anthracinae, with most of the world's diversity in three cosmopolitan tribes: Villini, Anthracini and Exoprosopini. Molecular data from 815 base pairs of 16S mitochondrial DNA and morphological characters from species-groups of these tribes in Australia were analysed cladistically. The results show that the relationships between the anthracine tribes reflect those found in a previous morphological analysis. The genera of the Anthracinae in Australia are monophyletic, except for Ligyra Newman, and are assigned to tribes. Although simultaneous analysis of the combined molecular and morphological data produced clades found in both separate analyses, the different data sources are significantly incongruent. We use phylogenetic measures to examine support for the relationships among the Australian Anthracinae inferred by the molecular and morphological data.

Searching for convergence in phylogenetic Markov chain Monte Carlo

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a methodology that is gaining widespread use in the phylogenetics community and is central to phylogenetic software packages such as MrBayes. An important issue for users of MCMC methods is how to select appropriate values for adjustable parameters such as the length of the Markov chain or chains, the sampling density, the proposal mechanism, and, if Metropolis-coupled MCMC is being used, the number of heated chains and their temperatures. Although some parameter settings have been examined in detail in the literature, others are frequently chosen with more regard to computational time or personal experience with other data sets. Such choices may lead to inadequate sampling of tree space or an inefficient use of computational resources. We performed a detailed study of convergence and mixing for 70 randomly selected, putatively orthologous protein sets with different sizes and taxonomic compositions. Replicated runs from multiple random starting points permit a more rigorous assessment of convergence, and we developed two novel statistics, delta and epsilon, for this purpose. Although likelihood values invariably stabilized quickly, adequate sampling of the posterior distribution of tree topologies took considerably longer. Our results suggest that multimodality is common for data sets with 30 or more taxa and that this results in slow convergence and mixing. However, we also found that the pragmatic approach of combining data from several short, replicated runs into a metachain to estimate bipartition posterior probabilities provided good approximations, and that such estimates were no worse in approximating a reference posterior distribution than those obtained using a single long run of the same length as the metachain. Precision appears to be best when heated Markov chains have low temperatures, whereas chains with high temperatures appear to sample trees with high posterior probabilities only rarely. [Bayesian phylogenetic inference; heating parameter; Markov chain Monte Carlo; replicated chains.]

Three essays on the economics of defense contracting, output and income inequality

This dissertation analyzes both the economics of the defense contracting process and the impact of total dollar obligations on the economies of U.S. states. Using various econometric techniques, I will estimate relationships across individual contracts, state level output, and income inequality. I will achieve this primarily through the use of a dataset on individual contract obligations. ^ The first essay will catalog the distribution of contracts and isolate aspects of the process that contribute to contract dollar obligations. Accordingly, this study describes several characteristics about individual defense contracts, from 1966-2006: (i) the distribution of contract dollar obligations is extremely rightward skewed, (ii) contracts are unevenly distributed in a geographic sense across the United States, (iii) increased duration of a contract by 10 percent is associated with an increase in costs by 4 percent, (iv) competition does not seem to affect dollar obligations in a substantial way, (v) contract pre-payment financing increases the obligation of contracts from anywhere from 62 to 380 percent over non-financed contracts. ^ The second essay will turn to an aggregate focus, and look the impact of defense spending on state economic output. The analysis in chapter two attempts to estimate the state level fiscal multiplier, deploying Difference-in-Differences estimation as an attempt to filter out potential endogeneity bias. Interstate variation in procurement spending facilitates utilization of a natural experiment scenario, focusing on the spike in relative spending in 1982. The state level relative multiplier estimate here is 1.19, and captures the short run, impact effect of the 1982 spending spike. ^ Finally I will look at the relationship between defense contracting and income inequality. Military spending has typically been observed to have a negative relationship with income inequality. The third chapter examines the existence of this relationship, combining data on defense procurement with data on income inequality at the state level, in a longitudinal analysis across the United States. While the estimates do not suggest a significant relationship exists for the income share of the top ten percent of households, there is a significant positive relationship for the income share of top one percent households for an increase in defense procurement.^

Three Essays on the Economics of Defense Contracting, Output and Income Inequality

This dissertation analyzes both the economics of the defense contracting process and the impact of total dollar obligations on the economies of U.S. states. Using various econometric techniques, I will estimate relationships across individual contracts, state level output, and income inequality. I will achieve this primarily through the use of a dataset on individual contract obligations. The first essay will catalog the distribution of contracts and isolate aspects of the process that contribute to contract dollar obligations. Accordingly, this study describes several characteristics about individual defense contracts, from 1966-2006: (i) the distribution of contract dollar obligations is extremely rightward skewed, (ii) contracts are unevenly distributed in a geographic sense across the United States, (iii) increased duration of a contract by 10 percent is associated with an increase in costs by 4 percent, (iv) competition does not seem to affect dollar obligations in a substantial way, (v) contract pre-payment financing increases the obligation of contracts from anywhere from 62 to 380 percent over non-financed contracts. The second essay will turn to an aggregate focus, and look the impact of defense spending on state economic output. The analysis in chapter two attempts to estimate the state level fiscal multiplier, deploying Difference-in-Differences estimation as an attempt to filter out potential endogeneity bias. Interstate variation in procurement spending facilitates utilization of a natural experiment scenario, focusing on the spike in relative spending in 1982. The state level relative multiplier estimate here is 1.19, and captures the short run, impact effect of the 1982 spending spike. Finally I will look at the relationship between defense contracting and income inequality. Military spending has typically been observed to have a negative relationship with income inequality. The third chapter examines the existence of this relationship, combining data on defense procurement with data on income inequality at the state level, in a longitudinal analysis across the United States. While the estimates do not suggest a significant relationship exists for the income share of the top ten percent of households, there is a significant positive relationship for the income share of top one percent households for an increase in defense procurement.

Applying Augmented Reality to Outdoors Industrial Use

Augmented Reality (AR) is currently gaining popularity in multiple different fields. However, the technology for AR still requires development in both hardware and software when considering industrial use. In order to create immersive AR applications, more accurate pose estimation techniques to define virtual camera location are required. The algorithms for pose estimation often require a lot of processing power, which makes robust pose estimation a difficult task when using mobile devices or designated AR tools. The difficulties are even larger in outdoor scenarios where the environment can vary a lot and is often unprepared for AR. This thesis aims to research different possibilities for creating AR applications for outdoor environments. Both hardware and software solutions are considered, but the focus is more on software. The majority of the thesis focuses on different visual pose estimation and tracking techniques for natural features. During the thesis, multiple different solutions were tested for outdoor AR. One commercial AR SDK was tested, and three different custom software solutions were developed for an Android tablet. The custom software solutions were an algorithm for combining data from magnetometer and a gyroscope, a natural feature tracker and a tracker based on panorama images. The tracker based on panorama images was implemented based on an existing scientific publication, and the presented tracker was further developed by integrating it to Unity 3D and adding a possibility for augmenting content. This thesis concludes that AR is very close to becoming a usable tool for professional use. The commercial solutions currently available are not yet ready for creating tools for professional use, but especially for different visualization tasks some custom solutions are capable of achieving a required robustness. The panorama tracker implemented in this thesis seems like a promising tool for robust pose estimation in unprepared outdoor environments.

Reuse and integration of specification logics: the hybridisation perspective

Hybridisation is a systematic process along which the characteristic features of hybrid logic, both at the syntactic and the semantic levels, are developed on top of an arbitrary logic framed as an institution. It also captures the construction of first-order encodings of such hybridised institutions into theories in first-order logic. The method was originally developed to build suitable logics for the specification of reconfigurable software systems on top of whatever logic is used to describe local requirements of each system’s configuration. Hybridisation has, however, a broader scope, providing a fresh example of yet another development in combining and reusing logics driven by a problem from Computer Science. This paper offers an overview of this method, proposes some new extensions, namely the introduction of full quantification leading to the specification of dynamic modalities, and exemplifies its potential through a didactical application. It is discussed how hybridisation can be successfully used in a formal specification course in which students progress from equational to hybrid specifications in a uniform setting, integrating paradigms, combining data and behaviour, and dealing appropriately with systems evolution and reconfiguration.

Epigenetic and oncogenic regulation of SLC16A7 (MCT2) results in protein over-expression, impacting on signalling and cellular phenotypes in prostate cancer

Monocarboxylate Transporter 2 (MCT2) is a major pyruvate transporter encoded by the SLC16A7 gene. Recent studies pointed to a consistent overexpression of MCT2 in prostate cancer (PCa) suggesting MCT2 as a putative biomarker and molecular target. Despite the importance of this observation the mechanisms involved in MCT2 regulation are unknown. Through an integrative analysis we have discovered that selective demethylation of an internal SLC16A7/MCT2 promoter is a recurrent event in independent PCa cohorts. This demethylation is associated with expression of isoforms differing only in 5'-UTR translational control motifs, providing one contributing mechanism for MCT2 protein overexpression in PCa. Genes co-expressed with SLC16A7/MCT2 also clustered in oncogenic-related pathways and effectors of these signalling pathways were found to bind at the SLC16A7/MCT2 gene locus. Finally, MCT2 knock-down attenuated the growth of PCa cells. The present study unveils an unexpected epigenetic regulation of SLC16A7/MCT2 isoforms and identifies a link between SLC16A7/MCT2, Androgen Receptor (AR), ETS-related gene (ERG) and other oncogenic pathways in PCa. These results underscore the importance of combining data from epigenetic, transcriptomic and protein level changes to allow more comprehensive insights into the mechanisms underlying protein expression, that in our case provide additional weight to MCT2 as a candidate biomarker and molecular target in PCa.

Sex-biased differences in the effects of host individual, host population and environmental traits driving tick parasitism in red deer

The interactions between host individual, host population, and environmental factors modulate parasite abundance in a given host population. Since adult exophilic ticks are highly aggregated in red deer (Cervus elaphus) and this ungulate exhibits significant sexual size dimorphism, life history traits and segregation, we hypothesized that tick parasitism on males and hinds would be differentially influenced by each of these factors. To test the hypothesis, ticks from 306 red deer-182 males and 124 females-were collected during 7 years in a red deer population in south-central Spain. By using generalized linear models, with a negative binomial error distribution and a logarithmic link function, we modeled tick abundance on deer with 20 potential predictors. Three models were developed: one for red deer males, another for hinds, and one combining data for males and females and including "sex" as factor. Our rationale was that if tick burdens on males and hinds relate to the explanatory factors in a differential way, it is not possible to precisely and accurately predict the tick burden on one sex using the model fitted on the other sex, or with the model that combines data from both sexes. Our results showed that deer males were the primary target for ticks, the weight of each factor differed between sexes, and each sex specific model was not able to accurately predict burdens on the animals of the other sex. That is, results support for sex-biased differences. The higher weight of host individual and population factors in the model for males show that intrinsic deer factors more strongly explain tick burden than environmental host-seeking tick abundance. In contrast, environmental variables predominated in the models explaining tick burdens in hinds.

Apports de la texture multibande dans la classification orientée-objets d'images multisources (optique et radar).

Résumé : La texture dispose d’un bon potentiel discriminant qui complète celui des paramètres radiométriques dans le processus de classification d’image. L’indice Compact Texture Unit (CTU) multibande, récemment mis au point par Safia et He (2014), permet d’extraire la texture sur plusieurs bandes à la fois, donc de tirer parti d’un surcroît d’informations ignorées jusqu’ici dans les analyses texturales traditionnelles : l’interdépendance entre les bandes. Toutefois, ce nouvel outil n’a pas encore été testé sur des images multisources, usage qui peut se révéler d’un grand intérêt quand on considère par exemple toute la richesse texturale que le radar peut apporter en supplément à l’optique, par combinaison de données. Cette étude permet donc de compléter la validation initiée par Safia (2014) en appliquant le CTU sur un couple d’images optique-radar. L’analyse texturale de ce jeu de données a permis de générer une image en « texture couleur ». Ces bandes texturales créées sont à nouveau combinées avec les bandes initiales de l’optique, avant d’être intégrées dans un processus de classification de l’occupation du sol sous eCognition. Le même procédé de classification (mais sans CTU) est appliqué respectivement sur : la donnée Optique, puis le Radar, et enfin la combinaison Optique-Radar. Par ailleurs le CTU généré sur l’Optique uniquement (monosource) est comparé à celui dérivant du couple Optique-Radar (multisources). L’analyse du pouvoir séparateur de ces différentes bandes à partir d’histogrammes, ainsi que l’outil matrice de confusion, permet de confronter la performance de ces différents cas de figure et paramètres utilisés. Ces éléments de comparaison présentent le CTU, et notamment le CTU multisources, comme le critère le plus discriminant ; sa présence rajoute de la variabilité dans l’image permettant ainsi une segmentation plus nette, une classification à la fois plus détaillée et plus performante. En effet, la précision passe de 0.5 avec l’image Optique à 0.74 pour l’image CTU, alors que la confusion diminue en passant de 0.30 (dans l’Optique) à 0.02 (dans le CTU).

Canopy-scale biophysical controls of transpiration and evaporation in the Amazon Basin.

Canopy and aerodynamic conductances (gC and gA) are two of the key land surface biophysical variables that control the land surface response of land surface schemes in climate models. Their representation is crucial for predicting transpiration (λET) and evaporation (λEE) flux components of the terrestrial latent heat flux (λE), which has important implications for global climate change and water resource management. By physical integration of radiometric surface temperature (TR) into an integrated framework of the Penman?Monteith and Shuttleworth?Wallace models, we present a novel approach to directly quantify the canopy-scale biophysical controls on λET and λEE over multiple plant functional types (PFTs) in the Amazon Basin. Combining data from six LBA (Large-scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia) eddy covariance tower sites and a TR-driven physically based modeling approach, we identified the canopy-scale feedback-response mechanism between gC, λET, and atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (DA), without using any leaf-scale empirical parameterizations for the modeling. The TR-based model shows minor biophysical control on λET during the wet (rainy) seasons where λET becomes predominantly radiation driven and net radiation (RN) determines 75 to 80 % of the variances of λET. However, biophysical control on λET is dramatically increased during the dry seasons, and particularly the 2005 drought year, explaining 50 to 65 % of the variances of λET, and indicates λET to be substantially soil moisture driven during the rainfall deficit phase. Despite substantial differences in gA between forests and pastures, very similar canopy?atmosphere "coupling" was found in these two biomes due to soil moisture-induced decrease in gC in the pasture. This revealed the pragmatic aspect of the TR-driven model behavior that exhibits a high sensitivity of gC to per unit change in wetness as opposed to gA that is marginally sensitive to surface wetness variability. Our results reveal the occurrence of a significant hysteresis between λET and gC during the dry season for the pasture sites, which is attributed to relatively low soil water availability as compared to the rainforests, likely due to differences in rooting depth between the two systems. Evaporation was significantly influenced by gA for all the PFTs and across all wetness conditions. Our analytical framework logically captures the responses of gC and gA to changes in atmospheric radiation, DA, and surface radiometric temperature, and thus appears to be promising for the improvement of existing land?surface?atmosphere exchange parameterizations across a range of spatial scales.

Canopy-scale biophysical controls of transpiration and evaporation in the Amazon Basin.

Canopy and aerodynamic conductances (gC and gA) are two of the key land surface biophysical variables that control the land surface response of land surface schemes in climate models. Their representation is crucial for predicting transpiration (?ET) and evaporation (?EE) flux components of the terrestrial latent heat flux (?E), which has important implications for global climate change and water resource management. By physical integration of radiometric surface temperature (TR) into an integrated framework of the Penman?Monteith and Shuttleworth?Wallace models, we present a novel approach to directly quantify the canopy-scale biophysical controls on ?ET and ?EE over multiple plant functional types (PFTs) in the Amazon Basin. Combining data from six LBA (Large-scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia) eddy covariance tower sites and a TR-driven physically based modeling approach, we identified the canopy-scale feedback-response mechanism between gC, ?ET, and atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (DA), without using any leaf-scale empirical parameterizations for the modeling. The TR-based model shows minor biophysical control on ?ET during the wet (rainy) seasons where ?ET becomes predominantly radiation driven and net radiation (RN) determines 75 to 80?% of the variances of ?ET. However, biophysical control on ?ET is dramatically increased during the dry seasons, and particularly the 2005 drought year, explaining 50 to 65?% of the variances of ?ET, and indicates ?ET to be substantially soil moisture driven during the rainfall deficit phase. Despite substantial differences in gA between forests and pastures, very similar canopy?atmosphere "coupling" was found in these two biomes due to soil moisture-induced decrease in gC in the pasture. This revealed the pragmatic aspect of the TR-driven model behavior that exhibits a high sensitivity of gC to per unit change in wetness as opposed to gA that is marginally sensitive to surface wetness variability. Our results reveal the occurrence of a significant hysteresis between ?ET and gC during the dry season for the pasture sites, which is attributed to relatively low soil water availability as compared to the rainforests, likely due to differences in rooting depth between the two systems. Evaporation was significantly influenced by gA for all the PFTs and across all wetness conditions. Our analytical framework logically captures the responses of gC and gA to changes in atmospheric radiation, DA, and surface radiometric temperature, and thus appears to be promising for the improvement of existing land?surface?atmosphere exchange parameterizations across a range of spatial scales.

Combining ganglion cell topology and data of patients with glaucoma to determine a structure-function map

PURPOSE: To introduce techniques for deriving a map that relates visual field locations to optic nerve head (ONH) sectors and to use the techniques to derive a map relating Medmont perimetric data to data from the Heidelberg Retinal Tomograph. METHODS: Spearman correlation coefficients were calculated relating each visual field location (Medmont M700) to rim area and volume measures for 10 degrees ONH sectors (HRT III software) for 57 participants: 34 with glaucoma, 18 with suspected glaucoma, and 5 with ocular hypertension. Correlations were constrained to be anatomically plausible with a computational model of the axon growth of retinal ganglion cells (Algorithm GROW). GROW generated a map relating field locations to sectors of the ONH. The sector with the maximum statistically significant (P < 0.05) correlation coefficient within 40 degrees of the angle predicted by GROW for each location was computed. Before correlation, both functional and structural data were normalized by either normative data or the fellow eye in each participant. RESULTS: The model of axon growth produced a 24-2 map that is qualitatively similar to existing maps derived from empiric data. When GROW was used in conjunction with normative data, 31% of field locations exhibited a statistically significant relationship. This significance increased to 67% (z-test, z = 4.84; P < 0.001) when both field and rim area data were normalized with the fellow eye. CONCLUSIONS: A computational model of axon growth and normalizing data by the fellow eye can assist in constructing an anatomically plausible map connecting visual field data and sectoral ONH data.

CTCombine : rotating and combining CT data with an accurate detector model, to simulate radiotherapy portal imaging at non-zero beam angles

Established Monte Carlo user codes BEAMnrc and DOSXYZnrc permit the accurate and straightforward simulation of radiotherapy experiments and treatments delivered from multiple beam angles. However, when an electronic portal imaging detector (EPID) is included in these simulations, treatment delivery from non-zero beam angles becomes problematic. This study introduces CTCombine, a purpose-built code for rotating selected CT data volumes, converting CT numbers to mass densities, combining the results with model EPIDs and writing output in a form which can easily be read and used by the dose calculation code DOSXYZnrc. The geometric and dosimetric accuracy of CTCombine’s output has been assessed by simulating simple and complex treatments applied to a rotated planar phantom and a rotated humanoid phantom and comparing the resulting virtual EPID images with the images acquired using experimental measurements and independent simulations of equivalent phantoms. It is expected that CTCombine will be useful for Monte Carlo studies of EPID dosimetry as well as other EPID imaging applications.

CTCombine : rotating and combining CT data with an accurate detector model to simulate radiotherapy portal imaging at non-zero beam angles

Established Monte Carlo user codes BEAMnrc and DOSXYZnrc permit the accurate and straightforward simulation of radiotherapy experiments and treatments delivered from multiple beam angles. However, when an electronic portal imaging detector (EPID) is included in these simulations, treatment delivery from non-zero beam angles becomes problematic. This study introduces CTCombine, a purpose-built code for rotating selected CT data volumes, converting CT numbers to mass densities, combining the results with model EPIDs and writing output in a form which can easily be read and used by the dose calculation code DOSXYZnrc...