Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift

Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur.

Structural Time Series Modeling: an Application to Environmental Variables

A structural time series model is one which is set up in terms of components which have a direct interpretation. In this paper, the discussion focuses on the dynamic modeling procedure based on the state space approach (associated to the Kalman filter), in the context of surface water quality monitoring, in order to analyze and evaluate the temporal evolution of the environmental variables, and thus identify trends or possible changes in water quality (change point detection). The approach is applied to environmental time series: time series of surface water quality variables in a river basin. The statistical modeling procedure is applied to monthly values of physico- chemical variables measured in a network of 8 water monitoring sites over a 15-year period (1999-2014) in the River Ave hydrological basin located in the Northwest region of Portugal.

Proximate cues to phases of movement in a highly dispersive waterfowl, anas superciliosa

BACKGROUND: Waterfowl can exploit distant ephemeral wetlands in arid environments and provide valuable insights into the response of birds to rapid environmental change, and behavioural flexibility of avian movements. Currently much of our understanding of behavioural flexibility of avian movement comes from studies of migration in seasonally predictable biomes in the northern hemisphere. We used GPS transmitters to track 20 Pacific black duck (Anas superciliosa) in arid central Australia. We exploited La Niña conditions that brought extensive flooding, so allowing a rare opportunity to investigate how weather and other environmental factors predict initiation of long distance movement toward freshly flooded habitats. We employed behavioural change point analysis to identify three phases of movement: sedentary, exploratory and long distance oriented movement. We then used random forest models to determine the ability of meteorological and remote sensed landscape variables to predict initiation of these phases. RESULTS: We found that initiation of exploratory movement phases is influenced by fluctuations in local weather conditions and accumulated rainfall in the landscape. Initiation of long distance movement phases was found to be highly individualistic with minor influence from local weather conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Our study reveals how individuals utilise local conditions to respond to changes in resource distribution at broad scales. Our findings suggest that individual movement decisions of dispersive birds are informed by the integration of multiple weather cues operating at different temporal and spatial scales.

Decadal decline in demersal fish biomass coincident with a prolonged drought and the introduction of an exotic starfish

Between 1990 and 2011, Port Phillip Bay in southern Australia experienced 2 major ecological disturbances: a prolonged drought from 1997 to 2010, and the introduction of the invasive starfish, Asterias amurensis. The drought reduced land-based nitrogen inputs by 64%, and the biomass of A. amurensis in the deep centre of the bay peaked at 56% of the resident fish biomass in 2000. The impacts of these disturbances on fish were assessed using a demersal trawl time-series spanning 2 decades (1990 to 2011). The timing and spatial extent of changes to fish biomass were analysed using ANCOVA and change point analysis. During the drought, fish biomass declined by 69% in the deep centre of the bay, by 50% at intermediate depths, and showed no significant change around the shallow fringes. This spatial pattern is consistent with hydrodynamic modelling, which suggests that during the drought a greater proportion of the (lower) nitrogen input was retained near the coastal fringe. Most of the decline in fish biomass was attributed to the cumulative effects of reduced productivity during the 12 yr drought. However, declines in 3 species in the deep region were attributed to competition with A. amurensis. Each of these species exhibited high dietary overlap with A. amurensis and displayed sharp declines in biomass coinciding with the peak abundance of A. amurensis in 2000.

Hilbert Space Valued Signal Plus Noise Models: Analysis of Structural Breaks under High Dimensionality and Temporal Dependence

This thesis is concerned with change point analysis for time series, i.e. with detection of structural breaks in time-ordered, random data. This long-standing research field regained popularity over the last few years and is still undergoing, as statistical analysis in general, a transformation to high-dimensional problems. We focus on the fundamental »change in the mean« problem and provide extensions of the classical non-parametric Darling-Erdős-type cumulative sum (CUSUM) testing and estimation theory within highdimensional Hilbert space settings. In the first part we contribute to (long run) principal component based testing methods for Hilbert space valued time series under a rather broad (abrupt, epidemic, gradual, multiple) change setting and under dependence. For the dependence structure we consider either traditional m-dependence assumptions or more recently developed m-approximability conditions which cover, e.g., MA, AR and ARCH models. We derive Gumbel and Brownian bridge type approximations of the distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis of no change and consistency conditions under the alternative. A new formulation of the test statistic using projections on subspaces allows us to simplify the standard proof techniques and to weaken common assumptions on the covariance structure. Furthermore, we propose to adjust the principal components by an implicit estimation of a (possible) change direction. This approach adds flexibility to projection based methods, weakens typical technical conditions and provides better consistency properties under the alternative. In the second part we contribute to estimation methods for common changes in the means of panels of Hilbert space valued time series. We analyze weighted CUSUM estimates within a recently proposed »high-dimensional low sample size (HDLSS)« framework, where the sample size is fixed but the number of panels increases. We derive sharp conditions on »pointwise asymptotic accuracy« or »uniform asymptotic accuracy« of those estimates in terms of the weighting function. Particularly, we prove that a covariance-based correction of Darling-Erdős-type CUSUM estimates is required to guarantee uniform asymptotic accuracy under moderate dependence conditions within panels and that these conditions are fulfilled, e.g., by any MA(1) time series. As a counterexample we show that for AR(1) time series, close to the non-stationary case, the dependence is too strong and uniform asymptotic accuracy cannot be ensured. Finally, we conduct simulations to demonstrate that our results are practically applicable and that our methodological suggestions are advantageous.

Heat transfer with solid liquid phase change initiating at a point in a semi infinite mold

Short-time analytical solutions of temperature and moving boundary in two-dimensional two-phase freezing due to a cold spot are presented in this paper. The melt occupies a semi-infinite region. Although the method of solution is valid for various other types of boundary conditions, the results in this paper are given only for the prescribed flux boundary conditions which could be space and time dependent. The freezing front propagations along the interior of the melt region exhibit well known behaviours but the propagations along the surface are of new type. The freezing front always depends on material parameters. Several interesting results can be obtained as particular cases of the general results.

A Change in the 3(10)- to alpha-Helical Transition Point in the Heptapeptides Containing Sulfur and Selenium

Crystal structures of three heptapeptides Boc-Ala-Leu-Aib-XXX-Ala-Leu-Aib-OMe (where XXX = methionine in peptide A, selenomethionine in peptide B, and S-benzyl cysteine in peptide C) reveal mixed 3(10)-/alpha-helical conformations with R factors of 6.94, 5.79, and 5.98, respectively. All the structures were solved in the P2(1)2(1)2(1) space group. 3(10)- to a-helical transitions are observed in all of these peptides. The helices begin as a 3(10)-helical segment at the N-terminus and then transit for peptides A and C at residue Aib(3) carbonyl (O(3)), while for peptide B the transition occurs at residue Leu(2) carbonyl oxygen (O(2)). There are water molecules associated in the crystal of each of these peptides and they form different types of hydrogen bonding patterns in each crystal. The observations suggest that 3(10)- to alpha-helical transition is sequence dependent in these short heptapeptide sequences.

Transient Ventilation Dynamics Following a Change in Strength of a Point Source of Heat

We investigate the transient ventilation flow within a confined ventilated space, with high- and low-level openings, when the strength of a low-level point source of heat is changed instantaneously. The steady-flow regime in the space involves a turbulent buoyant plume, which rises from the point source to a well-mixed warm upper layer. The steady-state height of the interface between this layer and the lower layer of exterior fluid is independent of the heat flux, but the upper layer becomes progressively warmer with heat flux. New analogue laboratory experiments of the transient adjustment between steady states identify that if the heat flux is increased, the continuing plume propagates to the top of the room forming a new, warmer layer. This layer gradually deepens, and as the turbulent plume entrains fluid from the original warm layer, the original layer is gradually depleted and disappears, and a new steady state is established. In contrast, if the source buoyancy flux is decreased, the continuing plume is cooler than the original plume, so that on reaching the interface it is of intermediate density between the original warm layer and the external fluid. The plume supplies a new intermediate layer, which gradually deepens with the continuing flow. In turn, the original upper layer becomes depleted, both as a result of being vented through the upper opening of the space, but also due to some penetrative entrainment of this layer by the plume, as the plume overshoots the interface before falling back to supply the new intermediate layer. We develop quantitative models which are in good accord with our experimental data, by combining classical plume theory with models of the penetrative entrainment for the case of a decrease in heating. Typically, we find that the effect of penetrative entrainment on the density of the intruding layer is relatively weak, provided the change in source strength is sufficiently large. However, penetrative entrainment measurably increases the rate at which the depth of the draining layer decreases. We conclude with a discussion of the importance of these results for the control of naturally ventilated spaces.

Development, resistance and change. A point of view from Río Negro’s steppe

In this paper we search the concept of nonviolent resistance inquiring a rural experience from Rio Negro´s steppe. The initiative highlights the need to recognize  the context of the resistance exercise and the consideration of three aspects: the evaluation and interpretation of space, the dispute to public policy and the  restructuring of the family order. These three elements, which overlap material  and symbolic aspects, are discussed from an organization of trade domestic craft production. The notion of “development” is discovered on the basis of the  frameworks of values from which the reproduction of subordination is associated  with this idea, and even the challenge of change is the basis of the proposal which reviews that development idea, and illuminates from this complexity the notion  of “nonviolent resistance”.

A historic turning point: political change and the socio-institutional situation in Latin America

Includes bibliography

Report on relationship management and culture change

Brisbane Water (BW), a commercialised business arm of Brisbane City Council (BCC) entered into an alliance with a number of organisations from the private sector in order to design, construct, commission and undertake upgrades to three existing wastewater treatment plants located at Sandgate, Oxley Creek, and Wacol in Brisbane. The alliance project is called the Brisbane Water Environmental Alliance (BWEA). This report details the efforts of a team of researchers from the School of Management at Queensland University of Technology to investigate this alliance. This is the second report on this project, and is called Stage 2 of the research. At the time that Stage 2 of the research project was conducted, the BWEA project was nearing completion with a further 8 months remaining before project completion. The aim of this report is to explore individuals’ perceptions of the effectiveness and functioning of the BWEA project in the latter stages of the project. The second aim of this report is to analyse the longitudinal findings of this research project by integrating the findings from Stage 1 and Stage 2 of the project. This long-term analysis of the functioning and effectiveness of the alliance is important because at the current time, researchers have little knowledge of the group developmental processes that occur in large-scale alliances over time. Stage 2 of this research project has a number of aims including assessing performance of the BWEA project from the point of view of a range of stakeholders including the alliance board and alliance management team, alliance staff, and key stakeholders from the client organisation (Brisbane Water). Data were collected using semi-structured interviews with 18 individuals including two board members, one external facilitator, and four staff members from the client organisation. Analysis involved coding the interview transcripts in terms of the major issues that were reported by interviewees.

The Innovation Management Program (IMP) : a holistic approach to managing change in knowledge based firms

Innovation Management (IM) in most knowledge based firms is used on an adhoc basis where senior managers use this term to leverage competitive edge without understanding its true meaning and how its robust application in organisation impacts organisational performance. There have been attempts in the manufacturing industry to harness the innovative potential of the business and apprehend its use as a point of difference to improve financial and non financial outcomes. However further work is required to innovatively extrapolate the lessons learnt to introduce incremental and/or radical innovation to knowledge based firms. An international structural engineering firm has been proactive in exploring and implementing this idea and has forged an alliance with the Queensland University of Technology to start the Innovation Management Program (IMP). The aim was to develop a permanent and sustainable program with which innovation can be woven through the fabric of the organisation. There was an intention to reinforce the firms’ vision and reinvigorate ideas and create new options that help in its realisation. This paper outlines the need for innovation in knowledge based firms and how this consulting engineering firm reacted to this exigency. The development of the Innovation Management Program, its different themes (and associated projects) and how they integrate to form a holistic model is also discussed. The model is designed around the need of providing professional qualification improvement opportunities for staff, setting-up organised, structured & easily accessible knowledge repositories to capture tacit and explicit knowledge and implement efficient project management strategies with a view to enhance client satisfaction. A Delphi type workshop is used to confirm the themes and projects. Some of the individual projects and their expected outcomes are also discussed. A questionnaire and interviews were used to collect data to select appropriate candidates responsible for leading these projects. Following an in-depth analysis of preliminary research results, some recommendations on the selection process will also be presented.