中国近海和西北太平洋温跃层时空变化分析、模拟及预报

温度跃层是反映海洋温度场的重要物理特性指标，对水下通讯、潜艇活动及渔业养殖、捕捞等有重要影响。本文利用中国科学院海洋研究所“中国海洋科学数据库”在中国近海及西北太平洋（110ºE-140ºE,10ºN-40ºN）的多年历史资料（1930-2002年，510143站次），基于一种改进的温跃层判定方法，分析了该海域温跃层特征量的时空分布状况。同时利用Princeton Ocean Model(POM)，对中国近海，特别是东南沿海的水文结构进行了模拟，研究了海洋水文环境对逆温跃层的影响。最后根据历史海温观测资料，利用EOF分解统计技术，提出了一种适于我国近海及毗邻海域，基于现场有限层实测海温数据，快速重构海洋水温垂直结构的统计预报方法，以达到对现场温跃层的快速估计。 历史资料分析结果表明，受太阳辐射和风应力的影响，20°N以北研究海域，温跃层季节变化明显，夏季温跃层最浅、最强，冬季相反，温跃层厚度的相位明显滞后于其他变量，其在春季最薄、秋季最厚。12月份到翌年3月份，渤、黄及东海西岸，呈无跃层结构，西北太平洋部分海域从1月到3月份，也基本无跃层结构。在黄海西和东岸以及台湾海峡附近的浅滩海域，由于风力搅拌和潮混合作用，温跃层出现概率常年较低。夏季，海水层化现象在近海陆架海域得到了加强，陆架海域温跃层强度季节性变化幅度(0.31°C/m)明显大于深水区(约0.05°C/m)，而前者温跃层深度和厚度的季节性变化幅度小于后者。20°N以南研究海域，温跃层季节变化不明显。逆温跃层主要出现在冬、春季节（10月-翌年5月）。受长江冲淡水和台湾暖流的影响，东南沿海区域逆温跃层持续时间最长，出现概率最大，而在山东半岛北及东沿岸、朝鲜半岛西及北岸，逆温跃层消长过程似乎和黄海暖流有关。多温跃层结构常年出现于北赤道流及对马暖流区。在黑潮入侵黄、东、南海的区域，多温跃层呈现明显不同的季节变化。在黄海中部，春季多温跃层发生概率高于夏季和秋季，在东海西部，多跃层主要出现在夏季，在南海北部，冬季和春季多温跃层发生概率大于夏季和秋季。这些变化可能主要受海表面温度变化和风力驱动的表层流的影响。 利用Princeton Ocean Model(POM)，对中国东南沿海逆温跃层结构进行了模拟，模拟结果显示，长江冲淡水的季节性变化以及夏季转向与实际结果符合较好，基本再现了渤、黄、东海海域主要的环流、温盐场以及逆温跃层的分布特征和季节变化。通过数值实验发现，若无长江、黄河淡水输入，则在整个研究海域基本无逆温跃层出现，因此陆源淡水可能是河口附近逆温跃层出现的基本因素之一。长江以及暖流（黑潮和台湾暖流）流量的增加，均可在不同程度上使逆温跃层出现概率及强度、深度和厚度增加，且暖流的影响更加明显。长江对东南沿海逆温跃层的出现，特别是秋季到冬季初期，有明显的影响，使长江口海域逆温跃层位置偏向东南。暖流对于中国东南沿海的逆温跃层结构，特别是初春时期，有较大影响，使长江口海域的逆温跃层位置向东北偏移。 通过对温跃层长期变化分析得出，黄海冷水团区域，夏季温跃层强度存在3.8年左右的年际变化及18.9年左右的年代际变化，此变化可能主要表现为对当年夏季和前冬东亚地区大气气温的热力响应。东海冷涡区域，夏季温跃层强度存在3.7年的年际变化，在El Nino年为正的强度异常，其可能主要受局地气旋式大气环流变异所影响。谱分析同时表明，该海域夏季温跃层强度还存在33.2年的年代际变化，上世纪70年代中期，温跃层强度由弱转强，而此变化可能与黑潮流量的年代际变化有关。 海洋水温垂直结构的统计预报结果显示，EOF分解的前四个主分量即能够解释原空间点温度距平总方差的95%以上，以海洋表层附近观测资料求解的特征系数推断温度垂直结构分布的结果最稳定。利用东海陆架区、南海深水区和台湾周边海域三个不同区域的实测CTD样本廓线资料，对重构模型的检验结果表明，重构与实测廓线的相关程度超过95%的置信水平。三个区重构与实测温度廓线值的平均误差分别为0.69℃，0.52℃，1.18℃，平均重构廓线误差小于平均气候偏差，统计模式可以很好的估算温度廓线垂直结构。东海陆架海区温度垂直重构廓线与CTD观测廓线获得的温跃层结果对比表明，重构温跃层上界、下界深度和强度的平均绝对误差分别为1.51m、1.36m和0.17℃/m，它们的平均相对误差分别为24.7%、8.9%和22.6%，虽然温跃层深度和强度的平均相对误差较大，但其绝对误差量值较小。而在南海海区，模型重构温跃层上界、下界和强度的平均绝对预报误差分别为4.1m、27.7m和0.007℃/m，它们的平均相对误差分别为16.1%、16.8%和9.5%，重构温跃层各特征值的平均相对误差都在20%以内。虽然南海区温跃层下界深度平均绝对预报误差较大，但相对于温跃层下界深度的空间尺度变化而言（平均温跃层下界深度为168m），平均相对误差仅为16.8%。因此说模型重构的温度廓线可以达到对我国陆架海域、深水区温跃层的较好估算。 基于对历史水文温度廓线观测资料的分析及自主温跃层统计预报模型，研制了实时可利用微机简单、快捷地进行温跃层估算及查询的可视化系统，这是迄今进行大范围海域温跃层统计与实时预报研究的较系统成果。

载人潜器串口设备转接工业以太网的实时性建模与分析

根据具体的需求,为载人潜器设计了一种基于工业以太网的内部数据通讯和控制系统,其数据通讯的实时性是衡量控制系统的一个重要指标,因此,为了分析串行数据通信系统的实时性能,据其选用的传感器和网络架构的特点,建立了串口数据包传送时间延迟的数学模型;并在潜器平台上,以实测数据试验误差验证了该模型的准确性和普遍性,从而为开发人员对各种串口设备的参数设置提供理论指导;最后用该模型分析了载人潜器串行数据传送的实时性。

机器人逆动力学简化实时快速算法

本文基于机器人动力学模型，通过引入相对误差准则，提出一种计算机器人逆动力学的简化实时快速算法．该算法，根据动力学模型中各元素在期望工作轨迹上的变化速率不同，运用相对误差准则确定出它们的实时计算周期，达到减少单位控制周期内计算动力学模型的操作数，文中给出了计算实例。

Fourier有限差分法深度偏移与正演模拟

With the development of seismic exploration, the target becomes more and more complex, which leads to a higher demand for the accuracy and efficiency in 3D exploration. Fourier finite-difference (FFD) method is one of the most valuable methods in complex structure exploration, which keeps the ability of finite-differenc method in dealing with laterally varing media and inherits the predominance of the phase-screen method in stablility and efficiency. In this thesis, the accuracy of the FFD operator is highly improved by using simulated annealing algorithm. This method takes the extrapolation step and band width into account, which is more suitable to various band width and discrete scale than the commonely-used optimized method based on velocity contrast alone. In this thesis, the FFD method is extended to viscoacoustic modeling. Based on one-way wave equation, the presented method is implemented in frequency domain; thus, it is more efficient than two-way methods, and is more convenient than time domain methods in handling attenuation and dispersion effects. The proposed method can handle large velocity contrast and has a high efficiency, which is helpful to further research on earth absorption and seismic resolution. Starting from the frequency dispersion of the acoustic VTI wave equation, this thesis extends the FFD migration method to the acoustic VTI media. Compared with the convetional FFD method, the presented method has a similar computational efficiency, and keeps the abilities of dealing with large velocity contrasts and steep dips. The numerical experiments based on the SEG salt model show that the presented method is a practical migration method for complex acoustical VTI media, because it can handle both large velocity contrasts and large anisotropy variations, and its accuracy is relatively high even in strong anisotropic media. In 3D case, the two-way splitting technique of FFD operator causes artificial azimuthal anisotropy. These artifacts become apparent with increasing dip angles and velocity contrasts, which prevent the application of the FFD method in 3D complex media. The current methods proposed to reduce the azimuthal anisotropy significantly increase the computational cost. In this thesis, the alternating-direction-implicit plus interpolation scheme is incorporated into the 3D FFD method to reduce the azimuthal anisotropy. By subtly utilizing the Fourier based scheme of the FFD method, the improved fast algorithm takes approximately no extra computation time. The resulting operator keeps both the accuracy and the efficiency of the FFD method, which is helpful to the inhancements of both the accuracy and the efficiency for prestack depth migration. The general comparison is presented between the FFD operator and the generalized-screen operator, which is valuable to choose the suitable method in practice. The percentage relative error curves and migration impulse responses show that the generalized-screen operator is much sensiutive to the velocity contrasts than the FFD operator. The FFD operator can handle various velocity contrasts, while the generalized-screen operator can only handle some range of the velocity contrasts. Both in large and weak velocity contrasts, the higher order term of the generalized-screen operator has little effect on improving accuracy. The FFD operator is more suitable to large velocity contrasts, while the generalized-screen operator is more suitable to middle velocity contrasts. Both the one-way implicit finite-difference migration and the two-way explicit finite-differenc modeling have been implemented, and then they are compared with the corresponding FFD methods respectively. This work gives a reference to the choosen of proper method. The FFD migration is illustrated to be more attractive in accuracy, efficiency and frequency dispertion than the widely-used implicit finite-difference migration. The FFD modeling can handle relatively coarse grids than the commonly-used explicit finite-differenc modeling, thus it is much faster in 3D modeling, especially for large-scale complex media.

A greedy open shop heuristic with job priorities

The paper presents an improved version of the greedy open shop approximation algorithm with pre-ordering of jobs. It is shown that the algorithm compares favorably with the greedy algorithm with no pre-ordering by reducing either its absolute or relative error. In the case of three machines, the new algorithm creates a schedule with the makespan that is at most 3/2 times the optimal value.

Continuous Plankton Recorder Underestimates Zooplankton Abundance

A comparison between monthly mean ContinuousPlanktonRecorder (CPR) data and zooplankton data caught during winter and early spring with different sampling devices in the North Sea is presented to estimate the relative error in abundance of CPR measurements. CPR underestimates the abundance of zooplankton by a factor 25 during winter and early spring and by a factor 18 if Oithona spp. is not considered. This has serious implications for estimation of biomass as well as for modelling ecosystem dynamics.

Determination of metformin in plasma using a new ion pair solid phase extraction technique and ion pair liquid chromatography

This article describes the development of the first ion pair solid phase extraction technique (IPSPE), which has been applied to the extraction of metformin from plasma samples. In addition an ion pair chromatographic method was developed for the specific HPLC determination of metformin. Several extraction and HPLC methods have been described previously for metformin, however, most of them did not solve the problems associated with the high polarity of this drug. Drug recovery in the developed method was found to be more than 98%. The limit of detection and limit of quantification was 3 and 5 ng/ml, respectively. The intraday and interday precision (measured by coefficient of variation, CV%) was always less than 9%. The accuracy (measured by relative error, R.E.%) was always less than 6.9%. Stability analysis showed that metformin is stable for at least 3 months when stored at -70degreesC. The method has been applied to 150 patient samples as part of a medication adherence study. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dried blood spot liquid chromatography assay for therapeutic drug monitoring of metformin

The use of blood spot collection cards is a simple way to obtain specimens for analysis of drugs for the purpose of therapeutic drug monitoring, assessing adherence to medications and preventing toxicity in routine clinical setting. We describe the development and validation of a microanalytical technique for the determination of metformin from dried blood spots. The method is based on reversed phase high-performance liquid chromatography with ultraviolet detection. Drug recovery in the developed method was found to be more than 84%. The limits of detection and quantification were calculated to be to be 90 and 150 ng/ml, respectively. The intraday and interday precision (measured by CV%) was always less than 9%. The accuracy (measured by relative error, %) was always less than 12%. Stability analysis showed that metformin is stable for at least 2 months when stored at -70 degrees C. The small volume of blood required (10 mu L), combined with the simplicity of the analytical technique makes this a useful procedure for monitoring metformin concentrations in routine clinical settings. The method is currently being applied to the analysis of blood spots taken from diabetic patients to assess adherence to medications and relationship between metformin level and metabolic control of diabetes. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The development and validation of liquid chromatography method for the simultaneous determination of metformin and glipizide, gliclazide, glibenclamide or glimperide in plasma

This article describes the development of SPE and HPLC methods for the simultaneous determination of metformin and glipizide, gliclazide, glibenclamide or glimperide in plasma. Several extraction and HPLC methods have been described previously for the determination of each of these analytes in plasma separately. The simultaneous determination of these analytes is important for the routine monitoring of diabetic patients who take combination medications and for studying the pharmacokinetics of the combined dosage forms. In addition this developed method can serve as a standard method for the plasma determination of these analytes therefore saving time, effort and money. The recoveries of the developed methods were found to be between 76.3% and 101.9%. The limits of quantification were between 5 and 22.5 ng/ml. The intraday and interday precision (measured by coefficient of variation, CV%) was always less than 9%. The accuracy (measured by relative error %) was always less than 12%. Stability analysis showed that all analytes are stable for at least 3 months when stored at -70degreesC. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How long is a piece of Strix? Methods in measuring and measuring the measurers

An experiment to quantify intra- and interobserver error in anatomical measurements found that interobserver measurements can vary by over 14% of mean specimen length; disparity in measurement increases logarithmically with the number of contributors; instructions did not reduce variation or measurement disparity; scale of the specimen influenced the precision of measurement (relative error increasing with specimen size); different methods of taking a measurement yielded different results, although they did not differ in terms of precision, and topographical complexity of the elements being considered may potentially influence error (error increasing with complexity). These results highlight concerns about introduction of noise and potential bias that should be taken into account when compiling composite datasets and meta-analyses.

Remediation of phenol-contaminated water by adsorption using poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA)

Recently polymeric adsorbents have been emerging as highly effective alternatives to activated carbons for pollutant removal from industrial effluents. Poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA), polymerized using the atom transfer radical polymerization (ATRP) technique has been investigated for its feasibility to remove phenol from aqueous solution. Adsorption equilibrium and kinetic investigations were undertaken to evaluate the effect of contact time, initial concentration (10-90 mg/L), and temperature (25-55 degrees C). Phenol uptake was found to increase with increase in initial concentration and agitation time. The adsorption kinetics were found to follow the pseudo-second-order kinetic model. The intra-particle diffusion analysis indicated that film diffusion may be the rate controlling step in the removal process. Experimental equilibrium data were fitted to five different isotherm models namely Langmuir, Freundlich, Dubinin-Radushkevich, Temkin and Redlich-Peterson by non-linear least square regression and their goodness-of-fit evaluated in terms of mean relative error (MRE) and standard error of estimate (SEE). The adsorption equilibrium data were best represented by Freundlich and Redlich-Peterson isotherms. Thermodynamic parameters such as Delta G degrees and Delta H degrees indicated that the sorption process is exothermic and spontaneous in nature and that higher ambient temperature results in more favourable adsorption. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Automated nonlinear system modelling with multiple neural networks

This article discusses the identification of nonlinear dynamic systems using multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs). It focuses on both structure uncertainty and parameter uncertainty, which have been widely explored in the literature of nonlinear system identification. The main contribution is that an integrated analytic framework is proposed for automated neural network structure selection, parameter identification and hysteresis network switching with guaranteed neural identification performance. First, an automated network structure selection procedure is proposed within a fixed time interval for a given network construction criterion. Then, the network parameter updating algorithm is proposed with guaranteed bounded identification error. To cope with structure uncertainty, a hysteresis strategy is proposed to enable neural identifier switching with guaranteed network performance along the switching process. Both theoretic analysis and a simulation example show the efficacy of the proposed method.

Liquid-liquid slug flow: Hydrodynamics and pressure drop

In this paper, the hydrodynamics and the pressure drop of liquid-liquid slug flow in round microcapillaries are presented. Two liquid-liquid flow systems are considered, viz. water-toluene and ethylene glycol/water-toluene. The slug lengths of the alternating continuous and dispersed phases were measured as a function of the slug velocity (0.03-0.5 m/s), the organic-to-aqueous flow ratio (0.1-4.0), and the microcapillary internal diameter (248 and 498 mu m). The pressure drop is modeled as the sum of two contributions: the frictional and the interface pressure drop. Two models are presented, viz, the stagnant film model and the moving film model. Both models account for the presence of a thin liquid film between the dispersed phase slug and the capillary wall. It is found that the film velocity is of negligible influence on the pressure drop. Therefore, the stagnant film model is adequate to accurately predict the liquid-liquid slug flow pressure drop. The influence of inertia and the consequent change of the slug cap curvature are accounted for by modifying Bretherton's curvature parameter in the interface pressure drop equation. The stagnant film model is in good agreement with experimental data with a mean relative error of less than 7%.

Enhancement Factor for Gas Absorption in a Finite Liquid Layer. Part 1: Instantaneous Reaction in a Liquid in Plug Flow

An approximate analysis of gas absorption with instantaneous reaction in a liquid layer of finite thickness in plug flow is presented. An approximate solution to the enhancement factor for the case of unequal diffusivities between the dissolved gas and the liquid reactant has been derived and validated by numerical simulation. Depending on the diffusivity ratio of the liquid reactant to the dissolved gas (?), the enhancement factor tends to be either lower or higher than the prediction of the classical enhancement factor equation based on the penetration theory (Ei,pen) at Fourier numbers typically larger than 0.1. An empirical correlation valid for all Fourier numbers is proposed to allow a quick estimation of the enhancement factor, which describes the prediction of the approximate solution and the simulation data with a relative error below 5?% under the investigated conditions (? = 0.34, Ei,pen = 21000).

The 'Europeanization' of Reference Groups

In this paper we address the question of the relative importance of within and between country differences in income and material deprivation in the European Union in the context of recent suggestions that insufficient attention has been paid to the latter. In particular, we respond to the argument that the 'state bounded' relative income approach obscures the significance of EU-wide reference groups. Making use of EU-SILC 2004, we have sought to quantify the magnitude of relevant within and between country differences and their relative impact. Overall, our analysis supports the view that the predominant frame of reference is a national one. The limited impact of European reference groups observed in our analysis does not require explanation in terms of the emergence of a European social stratification system. Furthermore, the significance of such comparisons depends not only on the expectations of those affected by European inequalities but on the degree of legitimacy afforded to ensuing demands. While an EU-wide income-threshold can provide information regarding progress of the Union towards greater social cohesion, its usage for this purpose does not require a strong sense of European identity. Given the current status of the European Social Model, it would seem unwise to attribute an undue degree of policy relevance to the relatively modest impact of EU-wide reference groups revealed in our analysis.