Heuristic techniques for the analysis of variability as a dynamic aspect of change. 'Técnicas heurísticas para analizar la variabilidad como un aspecto dinámico de cambio'.

Monográfico con el título: 'Los mecanismos del cambio cognitivo'. Resumen basado en el de la publicación

When can we expect extremely high surface temperatures?

In the Essence project a 17-member ensemble simulation of climate change in response to the SRES A1b scenario has been carried out using the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model. The relatively large size of the ensemble makes it possible to accurately investigate changes in extreme values of climate variables. Here we focus on the annual-maximum 2m-temperature and fit a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to the simulated values and investigate the development of the parameters of this distribution. Over most land areas both the location and the scale parameter increase. Consequently the 100-year return values increase faster than the average temperatures. A comparison of simulated 100-year return values for the present climate with observations (station data and reanalysis) shows that the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model, as well as other models, overestimates extreme temperature values. After correcting for this bias, it still shows values in excess of 50°C in Australia, India, the Middle East, North Africa, the Sahel and equatorial and subtropical South America at the end of the century.

Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches

This paper provides an update on research in the relatively new and fast-moving field of decadal climate prediction, and addresses the use of decadal climate predictions not only for potential users of such information but also for improving our understanding of processes in the climate system. External forcing influences the predictions throughout, but their contributions to predictive skill become dominant after most of the improved skill from initialization with observations vanishes after about six to nine years. Recent multi-model results suggest that there is relatively more decadal predictive skill in the North Atlantic, western Pacific, and Indian Oceans than in other regions of the world oceans. Aspects of decadal variability of SSTs, like the mid-1970s shift in the Pacific, the mid-1990s shift in the northern North Atlantic and western Pacific, and the early-2000s hiatus, are better represented in initialized hindcasts compared to uninitialized simulations. There is evidence of higher skill in initialized multi-model ensemble decadal hindcasts than in single model results, with multi-model initialized predictions for near term climate showing somewhat less global warming than uninitialized simulations. Some decadal hindcasts have shown statistically reliable predictions of surface temperature over various land and ocean regions for lead times of up to 6-9 years, but this needs to be investigated in a wider set of models. As in the early days of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction, improvements to models will reduce the need for bias adjustment, and increase the reliability, and thus usefulness, of decadal climate predictions in the future.

A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961–2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

Balanced Ocean-Data Assimilation near the Equator

The question is addressed whether using unbalanced updates in ocean-data assimilation schemes for seasonal forecasting systems can result in a relatively poor simulation of zonal currents. An assimilation scheme, where temperature observations are used for updating only the density field, is compared to a scheme where updates of density field and zonal velocities are related by geostrophic balance. This is done for an equatorial linear shallow-water model. It is found that equatorial zonal velocities can be detoriated if velocity is not updated in the assimilation procedure. Adding balanced updates to the zonal velocity is shown to be a simple remedy for the shallow-water model. Next, optimal interpolation (OI) schemes with balanced updates of the zonal velocity are implemented in two ocean general circulation models. First tests indicate a beneficial impact on equatorial upper-ocean zonal currents.

Matrix metalloproteinases cleave the beta(2)-adrenergic receptor in spontaneously hypertensive rats

Rodrigues SF, Tran ED, Fortes ZB, Schmid-Schonbein GW. Matrix metalloproteinases cleave the beta(2)-adrenergic receptor in spontaneously hypertensive rats. Am J Physiol Heart Circ Physiol 299: H25-H35, 2010. First published April 9, 2010; doi:10.1152/ajpheart.00620.2009.-We recently observed the enhanced serine and matrix metalloproteinase (MMP) activity in the spontaneously hypertensive rat (SHR) compared with its normotensive Wistar-Kyoto (WKY) rat and the cleavage of membrane receptors in the SHR by MMPs. We demonstrate in vivo that MMP-7 and MMP-9 injection leads to a vasoconstrictor response in microvessels of rats that is blocked by a specific MMP inhibitor (GM-6001, 1 mu M). Multiple pathways may be responsible. Since the beta(2)-adrenergic receptor (beta(2)-AR) is susceptible to the action of endogenous MMPs, we hypothesize that MMPs in the plasma of SHRs are able to cleave the extracellular domain of the beta(2)-AR. SHR arterioles respond in an attenuated fashion to beta(2)-AR agonists and antagonists. Aorta and heart muscle of control Wistar rats were exposed for 24 h (37 C) to fresh plasma of male Wistar and WKY rats and SHRs with and without doxycycline (30 mu M) and EDTA (10 mM) to reduce MMP activity. The density of extracellular and intracellular domains of beta(2)-AR was determined by immunohistochemistry. The density of the extracellular domain of beta(2)-AR is reduced in aortic endothelial cells and cardiac microvessels of SHRs compared with that of WKY or Wistar rats. Treatment of the aorta and the heart of control Wistar rats with plasma from SHRs, but not from WKY rats, reduced the number of extracellular domains, but not intracellular domains, of beta(2)-AR in aortic endothelial cells and cardiac microvessels. MMP inhibitors (EDTA and doxycycline) prevented the cleavage of the extracellular domain. Thus MMPs may contribute to the reduced density of the extracellular domain of beta(2)-AR in blood vessels and to the increased arteriolar tone of SHRs compared with normotensive rats.

Inferential Implications of Over-Parametrization: A Case Study in Incomplete Categorical Data

P>In the context of either Bayesian or classical sensitivity analyses of over-parametrized models for incomplete categorical data, it is well known that prior-dependence on posterior inferences of nonidentifiable parameters or that too parsimonious over-parametrized models may lead to erroneous conclusions. Nevertheless, some authors either pay no attention to which parameters are nonidentifiable or do not appropriately account for possible prior-dependence. We review the literature on this topic and consider simple examples to emphasize that in both inferential frameworks, the subjective components can influence results in nontrivial ways, irrespectively of the sample size. Specifically, we show that prior distributions commonly regarded as slightly informative or noninformative may actually be too informative for nonidentifiable parameters, and that the choice of over-parametrized models may drastically impact the results, suggesting that a careful examination of their effects should be considered before drawing conclusions.Resume Que ce soit dans un cadre Bayesien ou classique, il est bien connu que la surparametrisation, dans les modeles pour donnees categorielles incompletes, peut conduire a des conclusions erronees. Cependant, certains auteurs persistent a negliger les problemes lies a la presence de parametres non identifies. Nous passons en revue la litterature dans ce domaine, et considerons quelques exemples surparametres simples dans lesquels les elements subjectifs influencent de facon non negligeable les resultats, independamment de la taille des echantillons. Plus precisement, nous montrons comment des a priori consideres comme peu ou non-informatifs peuvent se reveler extremement informatifs en ce qui concerne les parametres non identifies, et que le recours a des modeles surparametres peut avoir sur les conclusions finales un impact considerable. Ceci suggere un examen tres attentif de l`impact potentiel des a priori.

Bounds on functionals of the distribution treatment effects

Bounds on the distribution function of the sum of two random variables with known marginal distributions obtained by Makarov (1981) can be used to bound the cumulative distribution function (c.d.f.) of individual treatment effects. Identification of the distribution of individual treatment effects is important for policy purposes if we are interested in functionals of that distribution, such as the proportion of individuals who gain from the treatment and the expected gain from the treatment for these individuals. Makarov bounds on the c.d.f. of the individual treatment effect distribution are pointwise sharp, i.e. they cannot be improved in any single point of the distribution. We show that the Makarov bounds are not uniformly sharp. Specifically, we show that the Makarov bounds on the region that contains the c.d.f. of the treatment effect distribution in two (or more) points can be improved, and we derive the smallest set for the c.d.f. of the treatment effect distribution in two (or more) points. An implication is that the Makarov bounds on a functional of the c.d.f. of the individual treatment effect distribution are not best possible.

Os efeitos da cultura nas relações entre estilo de liderança, confiança e comprometimento: comparando equipes de operações especiais no Brasil e Estados Unidos

Esse trabalho tem como objetivo compreender a influência da cultura no estilo de liderança em equipes de operações especiais, usando como referência teórica principal as pesquisas de Geert Hofstede sobre dimensões culturais. Buscamos entender como os elementos da cultura nacional e da cultura organizacional influenciam o estilo de liderança comparando equipes de operações especiais do Brasil e dos Estados Unidos. As unidades brasileiras estudadas foram o Batalhão de Operações Especiais (BOPE) da Polícia Militar do Rio de Janeiro e a Coordenadoria de Recursos Especiais (CORE) da Polícia Civil do Rio de Janeiro. A equipe de operações especiais estudada nos Estados Unidos foi a SWAT. Os resultados apontam para a influência da cultura organizacional, e não da cultura nacional, no estilo de liderança.

Perception-action and adaptation in postural control of children and adolescents with cerebral palsy

The aim of this study was to examine the coupling between visual information and body sway and the adaptation in this coupling of individuals with cerebral palsy (CP). Fifteen children with and 15 without CP. 6-15 years old, were required to stand upright inside of a moving room. All children first performed two trials with no movement of the room and eyes open or closed, then four trials in which the room oscillated at 0.2 or 0.5 Hz (peak velocity of 0.6 cm/s), one trial in which the room oscillated at 0.2 Hz (peak velocity of 3.5 cm/s), and finally two other trials in which the room oscillated again at 0.2 Hz (peak velocity of 0.6 cm/s). Participants with CP coupled body sway to visual information provided by the moving room, comparable to the coupling of participants without CP. However, participants with CP exhibited larger body sway in maintaining upright position and more variable sway when body sway was induced by visual manipulation. They showed adaptive sensory motor coupling, e.g. down-weighting visual influence when a larger stimulus was provided, but not with the same magnitude as typically developing participants. This indicates that participants with CP have less capability of adaptation. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Zammara smaragdula walker, 1858 (hemiptera: Cicadidae): First record for Brazil

The present note reports the first record for Brazil of the cicada Zammara smaragdula Walker, 1858 (Hemiptera, Cicadidae, Zammarini). This new record brings the number of reported Cicadidae species for Brazil to 153, including three species in the genus Zammara. © 2011 Check List and Authors.

Why have land use change models for the Amazon failed to capture the amount of deforestation over the last decade?

Land cover change in the Neotropics represents one of the major drivers of global environmental change. Several models have been proposed to explore future trajectories of land use and cover change, particularly in the Amazon. Despite the remarkable development of these tools, model results are still surrounded by uncertainties. None of the model projections available in the literature plausibly captured the overall trajectory of land use and cover change that has been observed in the Amazon over the last decade. In this context, this study aims to review and analyze the general structure of the land use models that have most recently been used to explore land use change in the Amazon, seeking to investigate methodological factors that could explain the divergence between the observed and projected rates, paying special attention to the land demand calculations. Based on this review, the primary limitations inherent to this type of model and the extent to which these limitations can affect the consistency of the projections will also be analyzed. Finally, we discuss potential drivers that could have influenced the recent dynamic of the land use system in the Amazon and produced the unforeseen land cover change trajectory observed in this period. In a complementary way, the primary challenges of the new generation of land use models for the Amazon are synthesized. (c) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantification of functional abilities in Rett syndrome: a comparison between stages III and IV

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Comparing Regional Cultures Within a Country: Lessons From Brazil

In this joint article we test the common assumption that a measure of culture developed for the national level can also be used for comparing regions within a country. Three different research projects independently measured culture differences within the Federal Republic of Brazil, all three using a version of Hofstede`s Values Survey Module (VSM). The largest provided separate scores for all of Brazil`s 27 states, the next largest for 17 of the more populous states. Factor analyses of VSM item scores across states in both cases only very partly replicated Hofstede`s cross-national dimension structure; only Individualism versus Collectivism reappeared clearly. We attribute this lack of fit to a restriction of range of VSM item scores among states within a common Brazilian national culture. The item scores did show a cultural clustering of states that fairly closely followed the administrative division of the country into five regions. The culture profiles for these regions show remarkable differences between the Northeast with its Afro-Brazilian roots and the North with its native Indian roots. On the issue of comparing regional cultures, we found the VSM, based on global differences, too coarse a net for catching the finer cultural nuances between Brazilian states. Adding locally defined items would have made the studies more meaningful to Brazilians.