Equilibrium play and best response to (Stated) beliefs in constant sum games

We report experimental results on one-shot two person 3x3 constant sum games played by non-economists without previous experience in the laboratory. Although strategically our games are very similar to previous experiments in which game theory predictions fail dramatically, 80% of actions taken in our experiment coincided with the prediction of the unique Nash equilibrium in pure strategies and 73% of actions were best responses to elicited beliefs. We argue how social preferences, presentation effects and belief elicitation procedures may influence how subjects play in simple but non trivial games and explain the diferences we observe with respect to previous work.

The Distribution Dynamics of Output Multipliers in Scotland 1998–2007

In an input-output context the impact of any particular industrial sector is commonly measured in terms of the output multiplier for that industry. Although such measures are routinely calculated and often used to guide regional industrial policy the behaviour of such measures over time is an area that has attracted little academic study. The output multipliers derived from any one table will have a distribution; for some industries the multiplier will be relatively high, for some it will be relatively low. The recentpublication of consistent input-output tables for the Scottish economy makes it possible to examine trends in this mdistribution over the ten year period 1998-2007. This is done by comparing the means and other summary measures of the distributions, the histograms and the cumulative densities. The results indicate a tendency for the multipliers to increase over the period. A Markov chain modelling approach suggests that this drift is a slow but long term phenomenon which appears not to tend to an equilibrium state. The prime reason for the increase in the output multipliers is traced to a decline in the relative importance of imported (both from the rest of the UK and the rest of the world) intermediate inputs used by Scottish industries. This suggests that models calibrated on the set of tables might have to be interpreted with caution.

Geometria integral i convexitat en espais de curvatura holomorfa constant

En aquest treball es tracten qüestions de la geometria integral clàssica a l'espai hiperbòlic i projectiu complex i a l'espai hermític estàndard, els anomenats espais de curvatura holomorfa constant. La geometria integral clàssica estudia, entre d'altres, l'expressió en termes geomètrics de la mesura de plans que tallen un domini convex fixat de l'espai euclidià. Aquesta expressió es dóna en termes de les integrals de curvatura mitja. Un dels resultats principals d'aquest treball expressa la mesura de plans complexos que tallen un domini fixat a l'espai hiperbòlic complex, en termes del que definim com volums intrínsecs hermítics, que generalitzen les integrals de curvatura mitja. Una altra de les preguntes que tracta la geometria integral clàssica és: donat un domini convex i l'espai de plans, com s'expressa la integral de la s-èssima integral de curvatura mitja del convex intersecció entre un pla i el convex fixat? A l'espai euclidià, a l'espai projectiu i hiperbòlic reals, aquesta integral correspon amb la s-èssima integral de curvatura mitja del convex inicial: se satisfà una propietat de reproductibitat, que no es té en els espais de curvatura holomorfa constant. En el treball donem l'expressió explícita de la integral de la curvatura mitja quan integrem sobre l'espai de plans complexos. L'expressem en termes de la integral de curvatura mitja del domini inicial i de la integral de la curvatura normal en una direcció especial: l'obtinguda en aplicar l'estructura complexa al vector normal. La motivació per estudiar els espais de curvatura holomorfa constant i, en particular, l'espai hiperbòlic complex, es troba en l'estudi del següent problema clàssic en geometria. Quin valor pren el quocient entre l'àrea i el perímetre per a successions de figures convexes del pla que creixen tendint a omplir-lo? Fins ara es coneixia el comportament d'aquest quocient en els espais de curvatura seccional negativa i que a l'espai hiperbòlic real les fites obtingudes són òptimes. Aquí provem que a l'espai hiperbòlic complex, les cotes generals no són òptimes i optimitzem la superior.

Type II Errors in IO Multipliers

This paper compares methods for calculating Input-Output (IO) Type II multipliers. These are formulations of the standard Leontief IO model which endogenise elements of household consumption. An analytical comparison of the two basic IO Type II multiplier methods with the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier approach identifies the treatment of non-wage income generated in production as a central problem. The multiplier values for each of the IO and SAM methods are calculated using Scottish data for 2009. These results can be used to choose which Type II IO multiplier to adopt where SAM multiplier values are unavailable.

Fiscal multipliers in a two-sector search and matching model

This paper evaluates the effects of policy interventions on sectoral labour markets and the aggregate economy in a business cycle model with search and matching frictions. We extend the canonical model by including capital-skill complementarity in production, labour markets with skilled and unskilled workers and on-the-job-learning (OJL) within and across skill types. We first find that, the model does a good job at matching the cyclical properties of sectoral employment and the wage-skill premium. We next find that vacancy subsidies for skilled and unskilled jobs lead to output multipliers which are greater than unity with OJL and less than unity without OJL. In contrast, the positive output effects from cutting skilled and unskilled income taxes are close to zero. Finally, we find that the sectoral and aggregate effects of vacancy subsidies do not depend on whether they are financed via public debt or distorting taxes.

The Analysis of Accounting Multipliers: The NAMEA Approach in the Case of Catalonia

The aim of this paper is the analysis of the Catalan economy (2001) with the use of a National Accounting Matrix with environmental accounts (NAMEA) for the Catalan economy with 2001 data. We will focus on the analysis of the emission multipliers and we will also analyse the impact of a 10% reduction in greenhouse emissions on emission multipliers. This emission-reduction percentage would bring the Catalan economy into compliance with the maximum emissions level allowed by the Kyoto Protocol. We consider three possible scenarios that would allow this goal to be met. First, we will simulate a 10% reduction in regional emissions and a 5% drop in the endogenous income of the multipliers' model (production, factorial and private income). Second, we will simulate a 10% reduction in emissions and a 10% increase in endogenous income. Finally, we will simulate a 10% reduction in emissions and a 5% increase in endogenous income. Additionally, we will analyse the decomposition of the emission multipliers into own effects, open effects and circular effects to capture the different channels of the emission generation process. Keywords: NAMEA, emission multipliers, Kyoto Protocol.

Budget constrained expenditure multipliers

We show that standard expenditure multipliers capture economy-wide effects of new government projects only when financing constraints are not binding. In actual policy making, however, new projects usually need financing. Under liquidity constraints, new projects are subject to two opposite effects: an income effect and a set of spending substitution effects. The former is the traditional, unrestricted, multiplier effect; the latter is the result of expenditure reallocation to upheld effective financing constraints. Unrestricted multipliers will therefore be, as a general rule, upward biased and policy designs based upon them should be reassessed in the light of the countervailing substitution effects.

Development of Rhodnius prolixus (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) under Constant and Cyclic Conditions of Temperature and Humidity

Development of Rhodnius prolixus after eclosion until the adult stage was studied at constant temperatures (T), 15, 20, 25, 28, 35°C, and relative humidities (RH), 75, 86 and 97%, and fluctuating (16/8 hr) temperatures, T I/II, 15/28°C, 20/25°C, 25/28°C and 25/35°C, and relative humidities, RH I/II, 86/75% and 97/75%. Eclosion or molting were not observed at 15°C and 86 or 97% RH, respectively. At 35°C and 75% RH only few insects molted. By alternating T I/II, 15/28°C and 25/35°C, insects developed at high frequency. Cumulating the average lengths of the interphases within independent groups for each instar, R. prolixus reached the adult stage most rapidly (86.7 days) and at highest frequency per instar (mean: 91.8%) at 28°C and 75% RH. Under fluctuating T I/II, development was completed within 100 days or less at 25/28°C and 25/35°C with high rates of hatch and molting. Development was slowest at fluctuating TI/II, 15/28°C and 20/25°C (>185 days), and at constant 20°C (>300 days). Mortality was higher at constant 97% RH or fluctuating RH I, 97%, than at constant or fluctuating 86% RH. Refeeding was minimal at optimal conditions of T and RH for development. The most refeeding was observed at a constant 35°C.

Expectativas del paciente y su correlación con la escala de Constant y el cuestionario de calidad de vida SF-36

El objetivo del estudio es la evaluación subjetiva del hombro a través del análisis de expectativas en el dolor, la funcionalidad, las actividades de la vida diaria y la fuerza que el paciente espera obtener tras el tratamiento de la patología del hombro, y posteriormente, evaluar la correlación de estos datos obtenidos con los resultados en la escala de Constant y en el SF- 36. La hipótesis que nos planteamos fue que las expectativas del paciente son independientes del estado funcional del hombro y de la percepción de la calidad de vida.

Thermal Constant of an Experimental Population of Muscina stabulans (Fallén 1817) (Diptera:Muscidae) in the Laboratory

A study was conducted to investigate the thermal constant in an experimental population of Muscina stabulans (Fallén 1817). A natural population was obtained from a livestock and their F1 generations were maintained at four constant temperatures (16°C, 20°C, 26°C and 31°C). The thermal constant was calculated by the hyperbole method using the base temperature, tb = 4.4°C and the thermal constant K = 35.3 GD. Ricker's geometric regression, considering tb = 7.8°C and K = 28.9 GD was also calculated.