Influence of environmental variability and age on the body condition of small pelagic fish in the Gulf of Lions

Endogenous and environmental variables are fundamental in explaining variations in fish condition. Based on more than 20 yr of fish weight and length data, relative condition indices were computed for anchovy and sardine caught in the Gulf of Lions. Classification and regression trees (CART) were used to identify endogenous factors affecting fish condition, and to group years of similar condition. Both species showed a similar annual cycle with condition being minimal in February and maximal in July. CART identified 3 groups of years where the fish populations generally showed poor, average and good condition and within which condition differed between age classes but not according to sex. In particular, during the period of poor condition (mostly recent years), sardines older than 1 yr appeared to be more strongly affected than younger individuals. Time-series were analyzed using generalized linear models (GLMs) to examine the effects of oceanographic abiotic (temperature, Western Mediterranean Oscillation [WeMO] and Rhone outflow) and biotic (chlorophyll a and 6 plankton classes) factors on fish condition. The selected models explained 48 and 35% of the variance of anchovy and sardine condition, respectively. Sardine condition was negatively related to temperature but positively related to the WeMO and mesozooplankton and diatom concentrations. A positive effect of mesozooplankton and Rhone runoff on anchovy condition was detected. The importance of increasing temperatures and reduced water mixing in the NW Mediterranean Sea, affecting planktonic productivity and thus fish condition by bottom-up control processes, was highlighted by these results. Changes in plankton quality, quantity and phenology could lead to insufficient or inadequate food supply for both species.

Analysis of the claims data of a life insurance portfolio

Mestrado em Ciências Actuariais

Machine learning techniques for heavy-flavour baryon production measurements at the LHC

Il quark-gluon plasma (QGP) è uno stato della materia previsto dalla cromodinamica quantistica. L’esperimento ALICE a LHC ha tra i suoi obbiettivi principali lo studio della materia fortemente interagente e le proprietà del QGP attraverso collisioni di ioni pesanti ultra-relativistici. Per un’esaustiva comprensione di tali proprietà, le stesse misure effettuate su sistemi collidenti più piccoli (collisioni protone-protone e protone-ione) sono necessarie come riferimento. Le recenti analisi dei dati raccolti ad ALICE hanno mostrato che la nostra comprensione dei meccanismi di adronizzazione di quark pesanti non è completa, perchè i dati ottenuti in collisioni pp e p-Pb non sono riproducibili utilizzando modelli basati sui risultati ottenuti con collisioni e+e− ed ep. Per questo motivo, nuovi modelli teorici e fenomenologici, in grado di riprodurre le misure sperimentali, sono stati proposti. Gli errori associati a queste nuove misure sperimentali al momento non permettono di verificare in maniera chiara la veridicità dei diversi modelli proposti. Nei prossimi anni sarà quindi fondamentale aumentare la precisione di tali misure sperimentali; d’altra parte, stimare il numero delle diverse specie di particelle prodotte in una collisione può essere estremamente complicato. In questa tesi, il numero di barioni Lc prodotti in un campione di dati è stato ottenuto utilizzando delle tecniche di machine learning, in grado di apprendere pattern e imparare a distinguere candidate di segnale da quelle di fondo. Si sono inoltre confrontate tre diverse implementazioni di un algoritmo di Boosted Decision Trees (BDT) e si è utilizzata quella più performante per ricostruire il barione Lc in collisioni pp raccolte dall’esperimento ALICE.

Studio di tecniche di estrazione del segnale per barioni Λc+ ricostruiti nell’esperimento ALICE

Le recenti analisi dei dati raccolti ad ALICE dimostrano che la nostra comprensione dei fenomeni di adronizzazione dei sapori pesanti è ancora incompleta, perché le misure effettuate su collisioni pp, p-Pb e Pb-Pb non sono riproducibili da modelli teorici basati su altre tipologie di collisione come e+e−. In particolare, i risultati sembrano indicare che il principio di universalità, che assume che le funzioni di frammentazione di quark e gluoni siano indipendenti dal tipo di sistema interagente, non sia valido. Per questo motivo sono stati sviluppati nuovi modelli teorici e fenomenologici, capaci di riprodurre in modo più o meno accurato i dati sperimentali. Questi modelli differiscono tra di loro soprattutto a bassi valori di impulso trasverso pT . L’analisi dati a basso pT si rivela dunque di fondamentale importanza, in quanto permette di discriminare, tra i vari modelli, quelli che sono realmente in grado di riprodurre i dati sperimentali e quelli che non lo sono. Inoltre può fornire una conferma sperimentale dei fenomeni fisici su cui tale modello si basa. In questa tesi è stato estratto il numero di barioni Λ+c (yield ) prodotto in collisioni pp a √s = 13 TeV , nel range di impulso trasverso 0 < pT (Λ+c ) < 1 GeV/c. É stato fatto uso di una tecnica di machine learning che sfrutta un algoritmo di tipo Boosted Decision Trees (BDT) implementato dal pacchetto TMVA, al fine di identificare ed eliminare una grossa parte del fondo statistico e semplificare notevolmente l’analisi vera e propria. Il grado di attendibilità della misura è stata verificata eseguendo l’estrazione dello yield con due approcci diversi: il primo, modellando il fondo combinatoriale con una funzione analitica; successivamente con la creazione di un template statistico creato ad hoc con la tecnica delle track rotations.

Multivariate analysis to discriminate top quark pair production channels at LHC

Il quark top è una delle particelle fondamentali del Modello Standard, ed è osservato a LHC nelle collisioni a più elevata energia. In particolare, la coppia top-antitop (tt̄) è prodotta tramite interazione forte da eventi gluone-gluone (gg) oppure collisioni di quark e antiquark (qq̄). I diversi meccanismi di produzione portano ad avere coppie con proprietà diverse: un esempio è lo stato di spin di tt̄, che vicino alla soglia di produzione è maggiormente correlato nel caso di un evento gg. Uno studio che voglia misurare l’entità di tali correlazioni risulta quindi essere significativamente facilitato da un metodo di discriminazione delle coppie risultanti sulla base del loro canale di produzione. Il lavoro qui presentato ha quindi lo scopo di ottenere uno strumento per effettuare tale differenziazione, attraverso l’uso di tecniche di analisi multivariata. Tali metodi sono spesso applicati per separare un segnale da un fondo che ostacola l’analisi, in questo caso rispettivamente gli eventi gg e qq̄. Si dice che si ha a che fare con un problema di classificazione. Si è quindi studiata la prestazione di diversi algoritmi di analisi, prendendo in esame le distribuzioni di numerose variabili associate al processo di produzione di coppie tt̄. Si è poi selezionato il migliore in base all’efficienza di riconoscimento degli eventi di segnale e alla reiezione degli eventi di fondo. Per questo elaborato l’algoritmo più performante è il Boosted Decision Trees, che permette di ottenere da un campione con purezza iniziale 0.81 una purezza finale di 0.92, al costo di un’efficienza ridotta a 0.74.

Predicting smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis with classification trees and logistic regression: a cross-sectional study

Abstract Background Smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis (SNPT) accounts for 30% of pulmonary tuberculosis cases reported yearly in Brazil. This study aimed to develop a prediction model for SNPT for outpatients in areas with scarce resources. Methods The study enrolled 551 patients with clinical-radiological suspicion of SNPT, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The original data was divided into two equivalent samples for generation and validation of the prediction models. Symptoms, physical signs and chest X-rays were used for constructing logistic regression and classification and regression tree models. From the logistic regression, we generated a clinical and radiological prediction score. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, sensitivity, and specificity were used to evaluate the model's performance in both generation and validation samples. Results It was possible to generate predictive models for SNPT with sensitivity ranging from 64% to 71% and specificity ranging from 58% to 76%. Conclusion The results suggest that those models might be useful as screening tools for estimating the risk of SNPT, optimizing the utilization of more expensive tests, and avoiding costs of unnecessary anti-tuberculosis treatment. Those models might be cost-effective tools in a health care network with hierarchical distribution of scarce resources.

WOOD DENSITY VARIATION AND TREE RING DEMARCATION IN Gmelina arborea TREES USING X-RAY DENSITOMETRY

Due to its relationship with other properties, wood density is the main wood quality parameter. Modern, accurate methods - such as X-ray densitometry - are applied to determine the spatial distribution of density in wood sections and to evaluate wood quality. The objectives of this study were to determinate the influence of growing conditions on wood density variation and tree ring demarcation of gmelina trees from fast growing plantations in Costa Rica. The wood density was determined by X-ray densitometry method. Wood samples were cut from gmelina trees and were exposed to low X-rays. The radiographic films were developed and scanned using a 256 gray scale with 1000 dpi resolution and the wood density was determined by CRAD and CERD software. The results showed tree-ring boundaries were distinctly delimited in trees growing in site with rainfall lower than 25 10 mm/year. It was demonstrated that tree age, climatic conditions and management of plantation affects wood density and its variability. The specific effect of variables on wood density was quantified by for multiple regression method. It was determined that tree year explained 25.8% of the total variation of density and 19.9% were caused by climatic condition where the tree growing. Wood density was less affected by the intensity of forest management with 5.9% of total variation.

Spatial pattern of black spot incidence within citrus trees related to disease severity and pathogen dispersal

Guignardia citricarpa, the causal agent of citrus black spot, forms airborne ascospores on decomposing citrus leaves and water-spread conidia on fruits, leaves and twigs. The spatial pattern of diseased fruit in citrus tree canopies was used to assess the importance of ascospores and conidia in citrus black spot epidemics in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. The aggregation of diseased fruit in the citrus tree canopy was quantified by the binomial dispersion index (D) and the binary form of Taylor`s Power Law for 303 trees in six groves. D was significantly greater than 1 in 251 trees. The intercept of the regression line of Taylor`s Power Law was significantly greater than 0 and the slope was not different from 1, implying that diseased fruit was aggregated in the canopy independent of disease incidence. Disease incidence (p) and severity (S) were assessed in 2875 citrus trees. The incidence-severity relationship was described (R-2 = 88.7%) by the model ln(S) = ln(a) + bCLL(p) where CLL = complementary log-log transformation. The high severity at low incidence observed in many cases is also indicative of low distance spread of G. citricarpa spores. For the same level of disease incidence, some trees had most of the diseased fruit with many lesions and high disease severity, whereas other trees had most of the fruit with few lesions and low disease severity. Aggregation of diseased fruit in the trees suggests that splash-dispersed conidia have an important role in increasing the disease in citrus trees in Brazil.

3D-2D image registration by nonlinear regression

We propose a 3D-2D image registration method that relates image features of 2D projection images to the transformation parameters of the 3D image by nonlinear regression. The method is compared with a conventional registration method based on iterative optimization. For evaluation, simulated X-ray images (DRRs) were generated from coronary artery tree models derived from 3D CTA scans. Registration of nine vessel trees was performed, and the alignment quality was measured by the mean target registration error (mTRE). The regression approach was shown to be slightly less accurate, but much more robust than the method based on an iterative optimization approach.

Long-Lasting Protection of Activity of Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors and Protease Inhibitors (PIs) by Boosted PI Containing Regimens.

BACKGROUND: The accumulation of mutations after long-lasting exposure to a failing combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is problematic and severely reduces the options for further successful treatments. METHODS: We studied patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study who failed cART with nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) and either a ritonavir-boosted PI (PI/r) or a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI). The loss of genotypic activity <3, 3-6, >6 months after virological failure was analyzed with Stanford algorithm. Risk factors associated with early emergence of drug resistance mutations (<6 months after failure) were identified with multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Ninety-nine genotypic resistance tests from PI/r-treated and 129 from NNRTI-treated patients were analyzed. The risk of losing the activity of ≥1 NRTIs was lower among PI/r- compared to NNRTI-treated individuals <3, 3-6, and >6 months after failure: 8.8% vs. 38.2% (p = 0.009), 7.1% vs. 46.9% (p<0.001) and 18.9% vs. 60.9% (p<0.001). The percentages of patients who have lost PI/r activity were 2.9%, 3.6% and 5.4% <3, 3-6, >6 months after failure compared to 41.2%, 49.0% and 63.0% of those who have lost NNRTI activity (all p<0.001). The risk to accumulate an early NRTI mutation was strongly associated with NNRTI-containing cART (adjusted odds ratio: 13.3 (95% CI: 4.1-42.8), p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The loss of activity of PIs and NRTIs was low among patients treated with PI/r, even after long-lasting exposure to a failing cART. Thus, more options remain for second-line therapy. This finding is potentially of high relevance, in particular for settings with poor or lacking virological monitoring.

Anthocyanins and tannins in ozone-fumigated guava trees

Psidium guajava ""Paluma"", a tropical tree species, is known to be an efficient ozone indicator in tropical countries. When exposed to ozone, this species displays a characteristic leaf injury identified by inter-veinal red stippling on adaxial leaf surfaces. Following 30 days of three ozone treatments consisting of carbon filtered air (CF - AOT40 = 17 ppb h), ambient non-filtered air (NF - AOT40 = 542 ppb h) and ambient non-filtered air + 40 ppb ozone (NF + O(3) - AOT40 - 7802 ppb h), the amounts of residual anthocyanins and tannins present in 10 P. guajava (""Paluma"") saplings were quantified. Higher amounts of anthocyanins were found in the NF + O(3) treatment (1.6%) when compared to the CF (0.97%) and NF (1.30%) (p < 0.05), and of total tannins in the NF + O(3) treatment (0.16%) compared to the CIF (0.14%). Condensed tannins showed the same tendency as enhanced amounts. Regression analyses using amounts of tannins and anthocyanins, AOT40 and the leaf injury index (LII), showed a correlation between the leaf injury index and quantities of anthocyanins and total tannins. These results are in accordance with the association between the incidence of red-stippled leaves and ozone polluted environments. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolutionary model trees for handling continuous classes in machine learning

Model trees are a particular case of decision trees employed to solve regression problems. They have the advantage of presenting an interpretable output, helping the end-user to get more confidence in the prediction and providing the basis for the end-user to have new insight about the data, confirming or rejecting hypotheses previously formed. Moreover, model trees present an acceptable level of predictive performance in comparison to most techniques used for solving regression problems. Since generating the optimal model tree is an NP-Complete problem, traditional model tree induction algorithms make use of a greedy top-down divide-and-conquer strategy, which may not converge to the global optimal solution. In this paper, we propose a novel algorithm based on the use of the evolutionary algorithms paradigm as an alternate heuristic to generate model trees in order to improve the convergence to globally near-optimal solutions. We call our new approach evolutionary model tree induction (E-Motion). We test its predictive performance using public UCI data sets, and we compare the results to traditional greedy regression/model trees induction algorithms, as well as to other evolutionary approaches. Results show that our method presents a good trade-off between predictive performance and model comprehensibility, which may be crucial in many machine learning applications. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Anthocyanins and tannins in ozone-fumigated guava trees

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Diurnal and seasonal variations of CWSI and non-water-stressed baseline with nectarine trees

The work described was part of the programme, Innovative biological indicators to improve the efficiency of water and nitrogen use and the fruit quality in tree crops Project, a partnership between ISA and INRA. Field studies were conducted in Portugal on different irrigated plots of nectarine trees; a fully irrigated (unstressed plot) and a plot that was not irrigated for some days (stressed plot). The aim of this work was to investigate the effects of plant water stress on canopy temperature, to determine the nonwater-stressed baseline and to observe diurnal and seasonal variations of Crop Water Stress Index (CWSI). Canopy temperature, psychrometric and wind speed data were taken each half-hour, between 9:30 and 15:30 h. Results showed that canopy temperature was higher during the daytime, for both unstressed and stressed plots. A linear regression of canopy-air temperature differential and the vapor pressure deficit (non-water-stress baseline) showed a r2= 0.65. During the stress period, the average canopy temperature of the stressed plot was up to 5.4°C higher than the unstressed plot. Diurnal and seasonal average of CWSI values showed differences between unstressed and stressed plots, during the stress period.