Modelling of global crop production and resulting N2O emissions

Landwirtschaft spielt eine zentrale Rolle im Erdsystem. Sie trägt durch die Emission von CO2, CH4 und N2O zum Treibhauseffekt bei, kann Bodendegradation und Eutrophierung verursachen, regionale Wasserkreisläufe verändern und wird außerdem stark vom Klimawandel betroffen sein. Da all diese Prozesse durch die zugrunde liegenden Nährstoff- und Wasserflüsse eng miteinander verknüpft sind, sollten sie in einem konsistenten Modellansatz betrachtet werden. Dennoch haben Datenmangel und ungenügendes Prozessverständnis dies bis vor kurzem auf der globalen Skala verhindert. In dieser Arbeit wird die erste Version eines solchen konsistenten globalen Modellansatzes präsentiert, wobei der Schwerpunkt auf der Simulation landwirtschaftlicher Erträge und den resultierenden N2O-Emissionen liegt. Der Grund für diese Schwerpunktsetzung liegt darin, dass die korrekte Abbildung des Pflanzenwachstums eine essentielle Voraussetzung für die Simulation aller anderen Prozesse ist. Des weiteren sind aktuelle und potentielle landwirtschaftliche Erträge wichtige treibende Kräfte für Landnutzungsänderungen und werden stark vom Klimawandel betroffen sein. Den zweiten Schwerpunkt bildet die Abschätzung landwirtschaftlicher N2O-Emissionen, da bislang kein prozessbasiertes N2O-Modell auf der globalen Skala eingesetzt wurde. Als Grundlage für die globale Modellierung wurde das bestehende Agrarökosystemmodell Daycent gewählt. Neben der Schaffung der Simulationsumgebung wurden zunächst die benötigten globalen Datensätze für Bodenparameter, Klima und landwirtschaftliche Bewirtschaftung zusammengestellt. Da für Pflanzzeitpunkte bislang keine globale Datenbasis zur Verfügung steht, und diese sich mit dem Klimawandel ändern werden, wurde eine Routine zur Berechnung von Pflanzzeitpunkten entwickelt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen eine gute Übereinstimmung mit Anbaukalendern der FAO, die für einige Feldfrüchte und Länder verfügbar sind. Danach wurde das Daycent-Modell für die Ertragsberechnung von Weizen, Reis, Mais, Soja, Hirse, Hülsenfrüchten, Kartoffel, Cassava und Baumwolle parametrisiert und kalibriert. Die Simulationsergebnisse zeigen, dass Daycent die wichtigsten Klima-, Boden- und Bewirtschaftungseffekte auf die Ertragsbildung korrekt abbildet. Berechnete Länderdurchschnitte stimmen gut mit Daten der FAO überein (R2 = 0.66 für Weizen, Reis und Mais; R2 = 0.32 für Soja), und räumliche Ertragsmuster entsprechen weitgehend der beobachteten Verteilung von Feldfrüchten und subnationalen Statistiken. Vor der Modellierung landwirtschaftlicher N2O-Emissionen mit dem Daycent-Modell stand eine statistische Analyse von N2O-und NO-Emissionsmessungen aus natürlichen und landwirtschaftlichen Ökosystemen. Die als signifikant identifizierten Parameter für N2O (Düngemenge, Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt, Boden-pH, Textur, Feldfrucht, Düngersorte) und NO (Düngemenge, Bodenstickstoffgehalt, Klima) entsprechen weitgehend den Ergebnissen einer früheren Analyse. Für Emissionen aus Böden unter natürlicher Vegetation, für die es bislang keine solche statistische Untersuchung gab, haben Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt, Boden-pH, Lagerungsdichte, Drainierung und Vegetationstyp einen signifikanten Einfluss auf die N2O-Emissionen, während NO-Emissionen signifikant von Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt und Vegetationstyp abhängen. Basierend auf den daraus entwickelten statistischen Modellen betragen die globalen Emissionen aus Ackerböden 3.3 Tg N/y für N2O, und 1.4 Tg N/y für NO. Solche statistischen Modelle sind nützlich, um Abschätzungen und Unsicherheitsbereiche von N2O- und NO-Emissionen basierend auf einer Vielzahl von Messungen zu berechnen. Die Dynamik des Bodenstickstoffs, insbesondere beeinflusst durch Pflanzenwachstum, Klimawandel und Landnutzungsänderung, kann allerdings nur durch die Anwendung von prozessorientierten Modellen berücksichtigt werden. Zur Modellierung von N2O-Emissionen mit dem Daycent-Modell wurde zunächst dessen Spurengasmodul durch eine detailliertere Berechnung von Nitrifikation und Denitrifikation und die Berücksichtigung von Frost-Auftau-Emissionen weiterentwickelt. Diese überarbeitete Modellversion wurde dann an N2O-Emissionsmessungen unter verschiedenen Klimaten und Feldfrüchten getestet. Sowohl die Dynamik als auch die Gesamtsummen der N2O-Emissionen werden befriedigend abgebildet, wobei die Modelleffizienz für monatliche Mittelwerte zwischen 0.1 und 0.66 für die meisten Standorte liegt. Basierend auf der überarbeiteten Modellversion wurden die N2O-Emissionen für die zuvor parametrisierten Feldfrüchte berechnet. Emissionsraten und feldfruchtspezifische Unterschiede stimmen weitgehend mit Literaturangaben überein. Düngemittelinduzierte Emissionen, die momentan vom IPCC mit 1.25 +/- 1% der eingesetzten Düngemenge abgeschätzt werden, reichen von 0.77% (Reis) bis 2.76% (Mais). Die Summe der berechneten Emissionen aus landwirtschaftlichen Böden beträgt für die Mitte der 1990er Jahre 2.1 Tg N2O-N/y, was mit den Abschätzungen aus anderen Studien übereinstimmt.

Crop yield reduction in the tropics under climate change: Processes and uncertainties

Many modelling studies examine the impacts of climate change on crop yield, but few explore either the underlying bio-physical processes, or the uncertainty inherent in the parameterisation of crop growth and development. We used a perturbed-parameter crop modelling method together with a regional climate model (PRECIS) driven by the 2071-2100 SRES A2 emissions scenario in order to examine processes and uncertainties in yield simulation. Crop simulations used the groundnut (i.e. peanut; Arachis hypogaea L.) version of the General Large-Area Model for annual crops (GLAM). Two sets of GLAM simulations were carried out: control simulations and fixed-duration simulations, where the impact of mean temperature on crop development rate was removed. Model results were compared to sensitivity tests using two other crop models of differing levels of complexity: CROPGRO, and the groundnut model of Hammer et al. [Hammer, G.L., Sinclair, T.R., Boote, K.J., Wright, G.C., Meinke, H., and Bell, M.J., 1995, A peanut simulation model: I. Model development and testing. Agron. J. 87, 1085-1093]. GLAM simulations were particularly sensitive to two processes. First, elevated vapour pressure deficit (VPD) consistently reduced yield. The same result was seen in some simulations using both other crop models. Second, GLAM crop duration was longer, and yield greater, when the optimal temperature for the rate of development was exceeded. Yield increases were also seen in one other crop model. Overall, the models differed in their response to super-optimal temperatures, and that difference increased with mean temperature; percentage changes in yield between current and future climates were as diverse as -50% and over +30% for the same input data. The first process has been observed in many crop experiments, whilst the second has not. Thus, we conclude that there is a need for: (i) more process-based modelling studies of the impact of VPD on assimilation, and (ii) more experimental studies at super-optimal temperatures. Using the GLAM results, central values and uncertainty ranges were projected for mean 2071-2100 crop yields in India. In the fixed-duration simulations, ensemble mean yields mostly rose by 10-30%. The full ensemble range was greater than this mean change (20-60% over most of India). In the control simulations, yield stimulation by elevated CO2 was more than offset by other processes-principally accelerated crop development rates at elevated, but sub-optimal, mean temperatures. Hence, the quantification of uncertainty can facilitate relatively robust indications of the likely sign of crop yield changes in future climates. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multimodel estimate of the global terrestrial water balance: setup and first results

Six land surface models and five global hydrological models participate in a model intercomparison project (WaterMIP), which for the first time compares simulation results of these different classes of models in a consistent way. In this paper the simulation setup is described and aspects of the multi-model global terrestrial water balance are presented. All models were run at 0.5 degree spatial resolution for the global land areas for a 15-year period (1985-1999) using a newly-developed global meteorological dataset. Simulated global terrestrial evapotranspiration, excluding Greenland and Antarctica, ranges from 415 to 586 mm year-1 (60,000 to 85,000 km3 year-1) and simulated runoff ranges from 290 to 457 mm year-1 (42,000 to 66,000 km3 year-1). Both the mean and median runoff fractions for the land surface models are lower than those of the global hydrological models, although the range is wider. Significant simulation differences between land surface and global hydrological models are found to be caused by the snow scheme employed. The physically-based energy balance approach used by land surface models generally results in lower snow water equivalent values than the conceptual degree-day approach used by global hydrological models. Some differences in simulated runoff and evapotranspiration are explained by model parameterizations, although the processes included and parameterizations used are not distinct to either land surface models or global hydrological models. The results show that differences between model are major sources of uncertainty. Climate change impact studies thus need to use not only multiple climate models, but also some other measure of uncertainty, (e.g. multiple impact models).

Frequency of fruit and vegetable consumption and blood antioxidants in the Caerphilly cohort of older men

Objective: To assess the number of portions of fruit and vegetables consumed daily by a large representative sample of older men, and to determine how blood antioxidant (vitamins E, A and carotenoids) concentrations vary with fruit and vegetable consumption. Design: Cross-sectional study of free-living men. Subjects: Men aged 55-69 y (dietary data, n=1957; blood data, n=1874) participating in Phase III (1989-1993) of the Caerphilly and Speedwell Collaborative Heart Disease Studies. Methods: Dietary data were obtained by semi-quantitative food-frequency questionnaire and blood samples were analysed for antioxidant vitamins. Men were subdivided into groups on the basis of portions per day of fruit and vegetables. Within these sub-groups, mean and 95% ranges of intakes and of blood antioxidant levels were obtained. Log transformations were performed where appropriate. Results: Only 4.3% of the men met the recommended target of five portions, while 33.3% of the men consumed one or fewer portions of fruit and vegetables per day. Those men who consumed the poorest diets with respect to fruit and vegetable intakes were more likely to be from lower socio-economic classes, drink more alcohol and be current smokers. Fruit and vegetable intake reflected plasma concentrations of antioxidants, which showed a dose-response relationship to frequency of consumption. Conclusions: Older men in the UK consume much less fruit and vegetables than current recommendations. Major difficulties are likely to be encountered in trying to meet a dietary target that is clearly much higher than the fruit and vegetable consumption of large sections of the older population in the UK.

Overweight and obesity related factors in schoolchildren in Santa Catarina State, Brazil

The purpose of this study is to determine the correlation of socioeconomic, dietary, and anthropometric-nutritional variables of parents and their children to overweight (including obesity) in schoolchildren in Santa Catarina State, Brazil. This is a transversal study conducted on 4,964, 6 to 10-year-old schoolchildren registered in 345 Santa Catarina elementary schools. The following data were acquired: the children`s current weight and height, birth weight and length, duration of breastfeeding, age at which water, herbal tea and other foods were introduced to their diet; parental income, education level, age, weight and height were also obtained. The prevalence of overweight and obese children were estimated by point and by interval with a 95% confidence; prevalence rates were obtained based on the Poisson model. An hierarchical approach was used, in which variables were adjusted within blocks and included in the model when they presented p<0.05 at the outcome (overweight including obesity). The results indicate that 47.8% of the subjects were male. The prevalence of overweight and obese students was 15.4% (C195%: 14.4%-16.5%) and 6.1% (CI95%: 5.4%-6.7%) respectively and were statistically similar among sexes and age ranges. BMI values were higher in males and among older children (p<0.05). After adjustment within and among blocks, the variables per capita household income and parents` BM I values remained associated with overweight (including obesity). Overweight (including obesity) in schoolchildren is associated with a higher per capita household income and parental overweight and obesity.

Ecological niche modeling and principal component analysis of Krameria Loefl. (Krameriaceae)

Krameria plants are found in arid regions of the Americas and present a floral system that attracts oil-collecting bees. Niche modeling and multivariate tools were applied to examine ecological and geographical aspects of the 18 species of this genus, using occurrence data obtained from herbaria and literature. Niche modeling showed the potential areas of occurrence for each species and the analysis of climatic variables suggested that North American species occur mostly in deserted or xeric ecoregions with monthly precipitation below 140 mm and large temperature ranges. South American species are mainly found in deserted ecoregions and subtropical savannas where monthly precipitation often exceeds 150 mm and temperature ranges are smaller. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) performed with values of temperature and precipitation showed that the distribution limits of Krameria species are primarily associated with maximum and minimum temperatures. Modeling of Krameria species proved to be a useful tool for analyzing the influence of the ecological niche variables in the geographical distribution of species, providing new information to guide future investigations. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identification and lineage genotyping of South American trypanosomes using fluorescent fragment length barcoding

Trypanosoma cruzi and Trypanosoma rangeli are human-infective blood parasites, largely restricted to Central and South America. They also infect a wide range of wild and domestic mammals and are transmitted by a numerous species of triatomine bugs. There are significant overlaps in the host and geographical ranges of both species. The two species consist of a number of distinct phylogenetic lineages. A range of PCR-based techniques have been developed to differentiate between these species and to assign their isolates into lineages. However, the existence of at least six and five lineages within T. cruzi and T. rangeli, respectively, makes identification of the full range of isolates difficult and time consuming. Here we have applied fluorescent fragment length barcoding (FFLB) to the problem of identifying and genotyping T. cruzi, T. rangeli and other South American trypanosomes. This technique discriminates species on the basis of length polymorphism of regions of the rDNA locus. FFLB was able to differentiate many trypanosome species known from South American mammals: T. cruzi cruzi. T. cruzi marinkellei, T. dionisii-like, T. evansi, T. lewisi, T. rangeli, T. theileri and T. vivax. Furthermore, all five T. rangeli lineages and many T. cruzi lineages could be identified, except the hybrid lineages TcV and TcVI that could not be distinguished from lineages III and II respectively. This method also allowed identification of mixed infections of T. cruzi and T. rangeli lineages in naturally infected triatomine bugs. The ability of FFLB to genotype multiple lineages of T. cruzi and T. rangeli together with other trypanosome species, using the same primer sets is an advantage over other currently available techniques. Overall, these results demonstrate that FFLB is a useful method for species diagnosis, genotyping and understanding the epidemiology of American trypanosomes. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Paleomagnetic data and K-Ar ages from Mesozoic units of the Santa Marta massif: A preliminary interpretation for block rotation and translations

We report 6 K-Ar ages and paleomagnetic data from 28 sites collected in Jurassic, Lower Cretaceous and Paleocene rocks of the Santa Marta massif, to test previous hypothesis of rotations and translations of this massif, whose rock assemblage differs from other basement-cored ranges adjacent to the Guyana margin. Three magnetic components were identified in this study. A first component has a direction parallel to the present magnetic field and was uncovered in all units (D 352, I = 25.6, k = 57.35, a95 = 5.3, N = 12). A second component was isolated in Cretaceous limestone and Jurassic volcaniclastic rocks (D = 8.8, I = 8.3, k = 24.71, a95 = 13.7, N = 6), and it was interpreted as of Early Cretaceous age. In Jurassic sites with this component, Early Cretaceous K-Ar ages obtained from this and previous studies are interpreted as reset ages. The third component was uncovered in eight sites of Jurassic volcaniclastic rocks, and its direction indicates negative shallow to moderate inclinations and northeastward declinations. K-Ar ages in these sites are of Early (196.5 +/- 4.9 Ma) to early Late Jurassic age (156.6 +/- 8.9 Ma). Due to local structural complexity and too few Cretaceous outcrops to perform a reliable unconformity test, we only used two sites with (1) K-Ar ages, (2) less structural complexity, and (3) reliable structural data for Jurassic and Cretaceous rocks. The mean direction of the Jurassic component is (D = 20.4, I = -18.2, k = 46.9, a95 = 5.1, n = 18 specimens from two sites). These paleomagnetic data support previous models of northward along-margin translations of Grenvillian-cored massifs. Additionally, clockwise vertical-axis rotation of this massif, with respect to the stable craton, is also documented; the sense of rotation is similar to that proposed for the Perija Range and other ranges of the southern Caribbean margin. More data is needed to confirm the magnitudes of rotations and translations. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Elemental analysis of nuts and seeds by axially viewed ICP OES

A method for the multi-elemental determination of metals (Al, Ba, Ca, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Sr and Zn), metalloids (B and Si), and non-metals (Cl, P and 5) in the babassu nut and mesocarp, sapucaia nut, coconut pulp, cupuassu pulp and seed, and cashew nut by axially viewed inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry is presented. A diluted oxidant mixture (2 ml HNO(3) + 1 ml H(2)O(2) + 3 ml H(2)O) was used to achieve the complete decomposition of the organic matrix in a closed-vessel microwave oven. The accuracy of the entire proposed method was confirmed by standard reference material analysis (peach leaves-NIST SRM1547). The certified values showed a good agreement at a 95% confidence limit (Student`s t-test). The average RSD for repeatability of calibration solutions measurements were in the range of 1.1-6.7%. Limits of quantification (LOQ = 10 x LOD) were in the level of 0.00072-0.0532 mg/l. The macro and micronutrient ranges in the different nuts and seeds did not exceed the dietary reference intake (DRI), except for Mn in the babassu nut. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Formation and decomposition of N-alkyinaphthalimides: experimental evidences and ab initio description of the reaction pathways

The kinetics of hydrolysis of 1,8-N-butyl-naphthalimide (1,8-NBN) to 1,8-N-butyl-naphthalamide (1,8-NBAmide) and of 2,3-N-butyl-naphthalimide (2,3-NBN) to 2,3-N-butyl-naphthalamide (2,3-NBAmide), as well as the formation of the respective anhydrides from the amides were investigated in a wide acidity range. 1,8-NBN equilibrates with 1,8-NBAmide in mild alkali. Under the same conditions 2,3-NBN quantitatively yields 2,3-NBAmide. Over a wide range of acidities the reactions of the 1,8- and 2,3-N-butyl-naphthalamides (or imides) yield similar products but with widely different rates and at distinct pH`s. Anhydride formation in acid was demonstrated for 1,8-NBAmide. The reactions mechanisms were rationalized in the manifold pathways of ab initio calculations. The differences in rates and pH ranges in the reactions of the 1,8- and 2,3-N-butyl-naphthalamides were attributed to differences in the stability of the tetrahedral intermediates in alkali as well as the relative stabilities of the five and six-membered ring intermediates. The rate of carboxylic acid assisted 1,8-N-Butyl-naphthalamide hydrolysis is one of the largest described for amide hydrolysis models. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Heat budgets, thermal structure and dissolved oxygen in Brazilian reservoirs

A comparison of the thermal regime and oxygen distribution patterns of some Brazilian reservoirs was made. A strong latitudinal dependence of surface temperature, annual mean and annual range was found. Except for Tucurui Reservoir, a reservoir of the Equatorial zone, the lowest surface temperature of the year in the other compared reservoirs was observed from June to August while the highest extended from October to February. The decreasing trend of annual mean temperatures and thermal ranges was due to the increasing seasonal variability of insolation with the latitude. A positive relationship between the increase on thermal surface-bottom differences and the depth of water column was found for reservoirs of similar latitudes. A long thermal stratification (around four months) was evidenced in the lacustrine zone of reservoirs with a residence time higher than 40 days. Low fluctuation (<2%) of the annual variability of heat contents was observed for the Tucurui Reservoir, while in das Garcas Reservoir a manmade lake located in the frontier between tropical and temperate regions, the annual coefficient of variation attained 13%. Concerning the heat budgets, the value for the Tucurui Reservoir was two times higher than in das Garcas Reservoir. Both the morphometric and climatological factors affected the heat contents of the two compared reservoirs. In deep eutrophic reservoirs, a significant reduction on the oxygen concentrations in the hypolimnetic zone was frequently observed. In some oligotrophic stratified reservoirs, a decrease on oxygen with depth occurred when the temperature of the hypolimnion was higher than 20 degrees C and caused a biochemical oxygen demand. In das Garcas Reservoir, the actual oxygen deficits ranged from 0.40 to 1.52 mg.O-2.cm(-2) and appear to be linked to oxygen consumption after the senescence of Microcystis aeruginosa populations in the spring. But, other factors such as the allochthonous loads of organic matter also had an important role on the oxygen balance of das Garcas Reservoir.

Geographical variation in the golden-striped salamander, Chioglossa lusitanica Bocage, 1864 and the description of a newly recognized subspecies

Morphological and genetic data for the Iberian golden- striped salamander, Chioglossa lusitanica, demonstrate the existence of two groups with southern and northern ranges, connected by a zone of intergradation in central Portugal. Because reproductive isolation between them is incomplete we consider the groups to be subspecies. The type locality of C. lusitanica ( Bucaco near Lousa) is situated inside the mixed zone. This necessitates identification of the nominotypical subspecies. We sequenced a fragment of mitochondrial DNA from one of the species' syntypes and we determined what position over a latitudinal transect maximizes the morphological discrimination between the groups. Both approaches indicate that C. lusitanica from Bucaco represents the southern subspecies. A new subspecies of C. lusitanica is described from a northern locality ( Valongo near Porto in northwestern Portugal). A lectotype is designated for Chioglossa lusitanica.

Ageing behavior in the Cu-10 wt.%Al and Cu-10 wt.%Al-4 wt.%Ag alloys

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

1.5 mu m and visible up-conversion emissions in Er3+/Yb3+ co-doped tellurite glasses and optical fibers for photonic applications

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Mechanical and electrical driving field induced high-frequency dielectric anomalies in ferroelectric systems

Polycrystalline or single-crystal ferroelectric materials present dielectric dispersion in the frequency range 100 MHz-1 GHz that has been attributed to a dispersive ( relaxation-like) mechanism as well as a resonant mechanism. Particularly in 'normal' ferroelectric materials, a dielectric response that is indistinguishable from dispersion or a resonance has been reported. Nevertheless, the reported results are not conclusive enough to distinguish each mechanism clearly. A detailed study of the dielectric dispersion phenomenon has been carried out in PbTiO3-based ferroelectric ceramics, with the composition Pb1-xLaxTiO3 (x = 0.15), over a wide range of temperatures and frequencies, including microwave frequencies. The dielectric response of La-modified lead titanate ferroelectric ceramics, in 'virgin' and poled states, has been investigated in the temperature and frequency ranges 300-450 K and 1 kHz-2 GHz, respectively. The results revealed that the frequency dependence of the dielectric anomalies, depending on the measuring direction with respect to the orientation of the macroscopic polarization, may be described as a general mechanism related to an 'over-damped' resonant process. Applying either a uniaxial stress along the measurement field direction or a poling electric field parallel and/or perpendicular to the measuring direction, a resonant response of the real and imaginary components of the dielectric constant is observed, in contrast to the dispersion behavior obtained in the absence of the stress, for the 'virgin' samples. Both results, resonance and/or dispersion, can be explained by considering a common mechanism involving a resonant response (damped and/or over-damped) which is strongly affected by a ferroelastic-ferroelectric coupling, contributing to the low-field dielectric constant.