The influence of underreported crashes on hotspot identification

Hot spot identification (HSID) plays a significant role in improving the safety of transportation networks. Numerous HSID methods have been proposed, developed, and evaluated in the literature. The vast majority of HSID methods reported and evaluated in the literature assume that crash data are complete, reliable, and accurate. Crash under-reporting, however, has long been recognized as a threat to the accuracy and completeness of historical traffic crash records. As a natural continuation of prior studies, the paper evaluates the influence that under-reported crashes exert on HSID methods. To conduct the evaluation, five groups of data gathered from Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT) over the course of three years are adjusted to account for fifteen different assumed levels of under-reporting. Three identification methods are evaluated: simple ranking (SR), empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB). Various threshold levels for establishing hotspots are explored. Finally, two evaluation criteria are compared across HSID methods. The results illustrate that the identification bias—the ability to correctly identify at risk sites--under-reporting is influenced by the degree of under-reporting. Comparatively speaking, crash under-reporting has the largest influence on the FB method and the least influence on the SR method. Additionally, the impact is positively related to the percentage of the under-reported PDO crashes and inversely related to the percentage of the under-reported injury crashes. This finding is significant because it reveals that despite PDO crashes being least severe and costly, they have the most significant influence on the accuracy of HSID.

Compilation of somatic mutations of the CDKN2 gene in human cancers : non-random distribution of base substitutions

The CDKN2 gene, encoding the cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor p16, is a tumour suppressor gene that maps to chromosome band 9p21-p22. The most common mechanism of inactivation of this gene in human cancers is through homozygous deletion; however, in a smaller proportion of tumours and tumour cell lines intragenic mutations occur. In this study we have compiled a database of over 120 published point mutations in the CDKN2 gene from a wide variety of tumour types. A further 50 deletions, insertions, and splice mutations in CDKN2 have also been compiled. Furthermore, we have standardised the numbering of all mutations according to the full-length 156 amino acid form of p16. From this study we are able to define several hot spots, some of which occur at conserved residues within the ankyrin domains of p16. While many of the hotspots are shared by a number of cancers, the relative importance of each position varies, possibly reflecting the role of different carcinogens in the development of certain tumours. As reported previously, the mutational spectrum of CDKN2 in melanomas differs from that of internal malignancies and supports the involvement of UV in melanoma tumorigenesis. Notably, 52% of all substitutions in melanoma-derived samples occurred at just six nucleotide positions. Nonsense mutations comprise a comparatively high proportion of mutations present in the CDKN2 gene, and possible explanations for this are discussed.

Haplotype analysis of two recurrent CDKN2A mutations in 10 melanoma families : evidence for common founders and independent mutations

Germ-line mutations in CDKN2A have been shown to predispose to cutaneous malignant melanoma. We have identified 2 new melanoma kindreds which carry a duplication of a 24bp repeat present in the 5' region of CDKN2A previously identified in melanoma families from Australia and the United States. This mutation has now been reported in 5 melanoma families from 3 continents: Europe, North America, and Australasia. The M53I mutation in exon 2 of CDKN2A has also been documented in 5 melanoma families from Australia and North America. The aim of this study was to determine whether the occurrence of the mutations in these families from geographically diverse populations represented mutation hotspots within CDKN2A or were due to common ancestors. Haplotypes of 11 microsatellite markers flanking CDKN2A were constructed in 5 families carrying the M53I mutation and 5 families carrying the 24bp duplication. There were some differences in the segregating haplotypes due primarily to recombinations and mutations within the short tandem-repeat markers; however, the data provide evidence to indicate that there were at least 3 independent 24bp duplication events and possibly only 1 original M53I mutation. This is the first study to date which indicates common founders in melanoma families from different continents.

Street-level drug law enforcement : a meta-analytical review

Our paper presents the results of a meta-analytical review of street level drug law enforcement. We conducted a series of meta-analyses to compare and contrast the effectiveness of four types of drug law enforcement approaches, including community-wide policing, problem-oriented/ partnership approaches that were geographically focused, hotspots policing and standard, unfocused law enforcement efforts. We examined the relative impact of these different crime control tactics on streetlevel drug problems as well as associated problems such as property crime, disorder and violent crime. The results of the meta-analyses, together with examination of forest plots, reveal that problem-oriented policing and geographically-focused interventions involving cooperative partnerships between police and third parties tend to be more effective at controlling drug problems than community-wide policing efforts that are unfocused and spread out across a community. But geographically focused and community-wide drug law enforcement interventions that leverage partnerships are more effective at dealing with drug problems than traditional, law enforcement-only interventions. Our results suggest that the key to successful drug law enforcement lies in the capacity of the police to forge productive partnerships with third parties rather than simply increasing police presence or intervention (e.g., arrests) at drug hotspots.

CARDIAC-ARIA: Measuring the Accessibility to Cardiovascular Services in Rural and Remote Australia Via Applied Geographical Spatial Technology (GIS)

Background/aims: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) continues to impose a heavy burden in terms of cost, disability and death in Australia. Recent evidence suggests that increasing remoteness, where cardiac services are scarce, is linked to an increased risk of dying from CVD. Fatal CVD events are reported to be between 20% and 50% higher in rural areas compared to major cities. Method: This project, with its extensive use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology, will rank 11,338 rural and remote population centres to identify geographical ‘hotspots’ where there is likely to be a mismatch between the demand for and actual provision of cardiovascular services. It will, therefore, guide more equitable provision of services to rural and remote communities. Outcomes: The CARDIAC-ARIA project is designed to; map the type and location of cardiovascular services currently available in Australia, relative to the distribution of individuals who currently have symptomatic CVD; determine, by expert panel, what are the minimal requirements for comprehensive cardiovascular health support in metropolitan and rural communities and derive a rating classification based on the Accessibility and Remoteness Index of Australia (ARIA) for each of Australia's 11,338 rural and remote population centres. Conclusion: This unique, innovative and highly collaborative project has the potential to deliver a powerful tool to highlight and combat the burden imposed by cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Australia.

Hotspot Identification: A Full Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Approach

This study proposes a full Bayes (FB) hierarchical modeling approach in traffic crash hotspot identification. The FB approach is able to account for all uncertainties associated with crash risk and various risk factors by estimating a posterior distribution of the site safety on which various ranking criteria could be based. Moreover, by use of hierarchical model specification, FB approach is able to flexibly take into account various heterogeneities of crash occurrence due to spatiotemporal effects on traffic safety. Using Singapore intersection crash data(1997-2006), an empirical evaluate was conducted to compare the proposed FB approach to the state-of-the-art approaches. Results show that the Bayesian hierarchical models with accommodation for site specific effect and serial correlation have better goodness-of-fit than non hierarchical models. Furthermore, all model-based approaches perform significantly better in safety ranking than the naive approach using raw crash count. The FB hierarchical models were found to significantly outperform the standard EB approach in correctly identifying hotspots.

Impacts of invasive plants on Australian rangelands

In Australia, the spread and dominance of non-native plant species has been identified as a serious threat to rangeland biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Rangelands extend over 70% of Australia’s land mass or more than 6 million km2. These rangelands consist of a diverse set of ecosystems including grasslands, shrub-lands, and woodlands spanning numerous climatic zones, ranging from arid to mesic. Because of the high economic, social, and environmental values, sustainable management of these vast landscapes is critical for Australia’s future. More than 2 million people live in these areas and major industries are ranching, mining, and tourism. In terms of biodiversity values, 53 of 85 of Australia’s biogeographical regions and 5 of 15 identified biodiversity hotspots are found in rangelands.

Global genetic diversity and geographical and host-species distribution of beak and feather disease virus isolates

Psittacine beak and feather disease (PBFD) has a broad host range and is widespread in wild and captive psittacine populations in Asia, Africa, the Americas, Europe and Australasia. Beak and feather disease circovirus (BFDV) is the causative agent. BFDV has an ~2 kb single stranded circular DNA genome encoding just two proteins (Rep and CP). In this study we provide support for demarcation of BFDV strains by phylogenetic analysis of 65 complete genomes from databases and 22 new BFDV sequences isolated from infected psittacines in South Africa. We propose 94% genome-wide sequence identity as a strain demarcation threshold, with isolates sharing > 94% identity belonging to the same strain, and strain subtypes sharing> 98% identity. Currently, BFDV diversity falls within 14 strains, with five highly divergent isolates from budgerigars probably representing a new species of circovirus with three strains (budgerigar circovirus; BCV-A, -B and -C). The geographical distribution of BFDV and BCV strains is strongly linked to the international trade in exotic birds; strains with more than one host are generally located in the same geographical area. Lastly, we examined BFDV and BCV sequences for evidence of recombination, and determined that recombination had occurred in most BFDV and BCV strains. We established that there were two globally significant recombination hotspots in the viral genome: the first is along the entire intergenic region and the second is in the C-terminal portion of the CP ORF. The implications of our results for the taxonomy and classification of circoviruses are discussed. © 2011 SGM.

Spatial mapping of city-wide PBDE levels using an exponential decay model

Passive air samplers (PAS) consisting of polyurethane foam (PUF) disks were deployed at 6 outdoor air monitoring stations in different land use categories (commercial, industrial, residential and semi-rural) to assess the spatial distribution of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in the Brisbane airshed. Air monitoring sites covered an area of 1143 km2 and PAS were allowed to accumulate PBDEs in the city's airshed over three consecutive seasons commencing in the winter of 2008. The average sum of five (∑5) PBDEs (BDEs 28, 47, 99, 100 and 209) levels were highest at the commercial and industrial sites (12.7 ± 5.2 ng PUF−1), which were relatively close to the city center and were a factor of 8 times higher than residential and semi-rural sites located in outer Brisbane. To estimate the magnitude of the urban ‘plume’ an empirical exponential decay model was used to fit PAS data vs. distance from the CBD, with the best correlation observed when the particulate bound BDE-209 was not included (∑5-209) (r2 = 0.99), rather than ∑5 (r2 = 0.84). At 95% confidence intervals the model predicts that regardless of site characterization, ∑5-209 concentrations in a PAS sample taken between 4–10 km from the city centre would be half that from a sample taken from the city centre and reach a baseline or plateau (0.6 to 1.3 ng PUF−1), approximately 30 km from the CBD. The observed exponential decay in ∑5-209 levels over distance corresponded with Brisbane's decreasing population density (persons/km2) from the city center. The residual error associated with the model increased significantly when including BDE-209 levels, primarily due to the highest level (11.4 ± 1.8 ng PUF−1) being consistently detected at the industrial site, indicating a potential primary source at this site. Active air samples collected alongside the PAS at the industrial air monitoring site (B) indicated BDE-209 dominated congener composition and was entirely associated with the particulate phase. This study demonstrates that PAS are effective tools for monitoring citywide regional differences however, interpretation of spatial trends for POPs which are predominantly associated with the particulate phase such as BDE-209, may be restricted to identifying ‘hotspots’ rather than broad spatial trends.

Two novel mutations and a previously unreported intronic polymorphism in the NOTCH3 gene

Cerebral autosomal dominant arteriopathy with subcortical infarcts and leukoencephalopathy (CADASIL) is a hereditary disease of small vessel caused by mutations in the NOTCH3 gene (NCBI Gene ID: 4854) located on chromosome 19p13.1. NOTCH3 consists of 33 exons which encode a protein of 2321 amino acids. Exons 3 and 4 were found to be mutation hotspots, containing more than 65% of all CADASIL mutations. We performed direct sequencing on an ABI 3130 Genetic Analyser to screen for mutations and polymorphisms on 300 patients who were clinically suspected to have CADASIL. First, exons 3 and 4 were screened in NOTCH3 and if there were no variations found, then extended CADASIL testing (exons 2, 11, 18 and 19) was offered to patients. Here we report two novel non-synonymous mutations identified in the NOTCH3 gene. The first mutation, located in exon 4 was found in a 49-year-old female and causes an alanine to valine amino acid change at position 202 (605C > T). The second mutation, located in exon 11, was found in a 66-year-old female and causes a cysteine to arginine amino acid change at position 579 (1735T > C). We also report a 46-year-old male with a known polymorphism Thr101Thr (rs3815188) and an unreported polymorphism NM_000435.2:c.679+60G>A observed in intron 4 of the NOTCH3 gene. Although Ala202Ala (rs1043994) is a common polymorphism in the NOTCH3 gene, our reported novel mutation (Ala202Val) causes an amino acid change at the same locus. Our other reported mutation (Cys579Arg) correlates well with other known mutations in NOTCH3, as the majority of the CADASIL-associated mutations in NOTCH3 generally occur in the EGF-like (epidermal growth factor-like) repeat domain, causing a change in the number of cysteine residues. The intronic polymorphism NM_000435.2:c.679+60G>A lies close to the intron–exon boundary and may affect the splicing mechanism in the NOTCH3 gene.

Platelet-derived endothelial cell growth factor expression and angiogenesis in cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and squamous cell carcinoma of the cervix

Growth and metastatic spread of invasive carcinoma depends on angiogenesis, the formation of new blood vessels. Platelet-derived endothelial cell growth factor (PD-ECGF) is an angiogenic growth factor for a number of solid tumors, including lung, bladder, colorectal, and renal cell cancer. Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) is the precursor to squamous cell cervical carcinoma (SCC). Mean vessel density (MVD) increases from normal cervical tissue, through low- and high-grade CIN to SCC. We evaluated PD-ECGF immunoreactivity and correlated its expression with MVD in normal, premalignant, and malignant cervical tissue. PD-ECGF expression was assessed visually within the epithelial tissues and scored on the extent and intensity of staining. MVD was calculated by counting the number of vessels positive for von Willebrand factor per unit area subtending normal or CIN epithelium or within tumor hotspots for SCC. Cytoplasmic and/or nuclear PD-ECGF immunoreactivity was seen in normal epithelium. PD-ECGF expression significantly increased with histologic grade from normal, through low- and high-grade CIN, to SCC (P < .02). A progressive significant increase in the microvessel density was also seen, ranging from a mean of 28 vessels for normal tissue to 57 for SCC (P < .0005). No correlation was found between PD-ECGF expression and MVD (P = .45). We conclude that PD-ECGF expression and MVD increase as the cervix transforms from a normal to a malignant phenotype. PD-ECGF is thymidine phosphorylase, a key enzyme in the activation of fluoropyrimidines, including 5-fluorouracil. Evaluation of PD-ECGF thymidine phosphorylase expression may be important in designing future chemotherapeutic trials in cervical cancer. Copyright (C) 2000 by W.B. Saunders Company.

Angiogenesis is an independent prognostic factor in malignant mesothelioma

Angiogenesis is essential for tumour growth beyond 1 to 2 mm in diameter. The clinical relevance of angiogenesis, as assessed by microvessel density (MVD), is unclear in malignant mesothelioma (MM). Immunohistochemistry was performed on 104 archival, paraffin-embedded, surgically resected MM samples with an anti-CD34 monoclonal antibody, using the Streptavidin-biotin complex immunoperoxidase technique. 93 cases were suitable for microvessel quantification. MVD was obtained from 3 intratumoural hotspots, using a Chalkley eyepiece graticule at × 250 power. MVD was correlated with survival by Kaplan-Meier and log-rank analysis. A stepwise, multivariate Cox model was used to compare MVD with known prognostic factors and the EORTC and CALGB prognostic scoring systems. Overall median survival from the date of diagnosis was 5.0 months. Increasing MVD was a poor prognostic factor in univariate analysis (P = 0.02). Independent indicators of poor prognosis in multivariate analysis were non-epithelial cell type (P = 0.002), performance status > 0 (P = 0.003) and increasing MVD (P = 0.01). In multivariate Cox analysis, MVD contributed independently to the EORTC (P = 0.006), but not to the CALGB (P = 0.1), prognostic groups. Angiogenesis, as assessed by MVD, is a poor prognostic factor in MM, independent of other clinicopathological variables and the EORTC prognostic scoring system. Further work is required to assess the prognostic importance of angiogenic regulatory factors in this disease. © 2001 Cancer Research Campaign.

Emerging methods in using GIS to analyse Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is an emerging mosquito-borne disease in Australia. We aimed to outline some recent methods in using GIS for the analysis of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia. A large database of geocoded BFV cases has been established in conjunction with population data. The database has been used in recently published studies conducted by the authors to determine spatio-temporal BFV disease hotspots and spatial patterns using spatial autocorrelation and semi-variogram analysis in conjunction with the development of interpolated BFV disease standardised incidence maps. This paper briefly outlines spatial analysis methodologies using GIS tools used in those studies. This paper summarises methods and results from previous studies by the authors, and presents a GIS methodology to be used in future spatial analytical studies in attempt to enhance the understanding of BFV disease in Queensland. The methodology developed is useful in improving the analysis of BFV disease data and will enhance the understanding of the BFV disease distribution in Queensland, Australia.

Sustainability of public health interventions to reduce the risk of dioxin exposure at severe dioxin hot spots in Vietnam

Severe dioxin contamination at Bien Hoa and Da Nang airbases, Vietnam is of international concern. Public Health risk reduction programs were implemented in Bien Hoa in 2007-2009 and in Da Nang in 2009-2011. In 2009 and 2011 we reported the encouraging results of these interventions in improving the knowledge, attitude and practices (KAP) of local residents in reducing the dioxin exposure risk through foods. In 2013 we revisited these dioxin hot spots, aimed to evaluate whether the results of the intervention were maintained and to identify factors affecting the sustainability of the programs. To assess this, 16 in-depth interviews, six focus group discussions, and pre and post intervention KAP surveys were undertaken. 800 respondents from six intervention wards and 200 respondents from Buu Long Ward (the control site) were randomly selected to participate in the surveys. The results showed that as of 2013, the programs were rated as "moderately sustained" with a score of 3.3 out of 5.0 (cut off points 2.5 to <3.5) for Bien Hoa, and "well sustained" with a score of 3.8 out of 5.0 (cut off points 3.5 to <4.5) for Da Nang. Most formal intervention program activities had ceased and dioxin risk communication activities were no longer integrated into local routine health education programs. However, the main outcomes were maintained and were better than that in the control ward. Migration, lack of official guidance from City People's Committees and local authorities as well as the politically sensitive nature of dioxin issues were the main challenges for the sustainability of the programs.

The rise of low-cost sensing for managing air pollution in cities

Ever growing populations in cities are associated with a major increase in road vehicles and air pollution. The overall high levels of urban air pollution have been shown to be of a significant risk to city dwellers. However, the impacts of very high but temporally and spatially restricted pollution, and thus exposure, are still poorly understood. Conventional approaches to air quality monitoring are based on networks of static and sparse measurement stations. However, these are prohibitively expensive to capture tempo-spatial heterogeneity and identify pollution hotspots, which is required for the development of robust real-time strategies for exposure control. Current progress in developing low-cost micro-scale sensing technology is radically changing the conventional approach to allow real-time information in a capillary form. But the question remains whether there is value in the less accurate data they generate. This article illustrates the drivers behind current rises in the use of low-cost sensors for air pollution management in cities, whilst addressing the major challenges for their effective implementation.