Are the antiglobalizers right?: the issue of trade without a Walrasian auctioneer

This paper analyzes the determinants of expectational coordination on the perfect foresight equilibrium of an open economy in the class of one-dimensional models where the price is determined by price expectations. In this class of models, we relate autarky expectational stability conditions to regional integration ones, providing an intuitive open economy interpretation ofthe elasticities condition obtained by Guesnerie [11]. There, we show that the degree of structural heterogeneity trades-off the existence of standard efficiency gains -due to the increase in competition (spatial price stabilization)- and coordination upon the welfare enhancing free-trade equilibrium (stabilizing price expectations). This trade-off provides a new rationale for an exogenous price intervention at the international levei. Through the coordinational concern of the authority, trading countries are ab]e to fully reap the bene:fits from trade. We illustrate this point showing that classical measures evaluating ex-ante the desirability of economic integration (net welfare gains) do not always advise integration between two expectationally stable economies.

Terms of trade, macroeconomic dynamics and default decisions

A evidência empírica aponta que Termos de Troca é uma variável relevante tanto para dinâmica macroeconômica como para o risco de default em países emergentes. No entanto, a literatura de dívida soberana baseada nos trabalhos de Eaton e Gerzovitz (1981) e Arellano (2008) ainda não explorou de forma adequada as conecções entre a dinâmica de termos de troca e incentivos ao default. Nós contribuímos nessa área, introduzindo volatilidade de Termos de Troca no modelo proposto por Mendoza e Yue (2012), no qual as decisões de dívida soberana são vinculadas à um modelo de equilíbrio geral para a economia doméstica. Nós encontramos que uma economia exposta à volatilidade dos termos de troca consegue produzir uma variabilidade do consumo que supera significativamente a variabilidade do produto, característica que constitui um fato estilizado chave de business cycles de países emergentes. Nossos exercícios também mostram que decisões de default são geradas por mudanças bruscas nos termos de troca, mas não necessariamente estão vinculados à estados ruins da economia.

CGE lessons on liberalization of trade in services: Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay

Includes bibliography.

Analysis of the effects of trade opening on household welfare: an application to Chile, 1999-2006

Incluye bibliografía

Policy alternatives and strategies for the Plurinational State of Bolivia following the end of trade preferences

Include bibliography

Poverty impacts of trade integration with the European Union: lessons for Ecuador

Includes bibliography

Policy alternatives and strategies for the Plurinational State of Bolivia following the end of trade preferences

Includes bibliography

Analysis of the effects of trade opening on household welfare: an application to Chile, 1999-2006

Includes bibliography

Effects of trade opening on household welfare: the Chilean case

Includes Bibliography

The competitiveness of agrifoods in Central American and Caribbean countries in the context of trade liberalization

Includes bibliography

Trade and sustainable development: spatial distribution of trade policies impacts on agriculture

Incluye Bibliografía

Returning to an external debate: the terms of trade for commodities in the twentieth century

Includes bibliography

The political economy of trade and industrial policy reform in Brazil in the 1990s

Includes bibliography

La estabilidad de la relación de precios del intercambio en los países poco desarrollados = Stabilizing the terms of trade of underdeveloped countries

Publicado separadamente en cada idioma

Conceptos y métodos de cálculo de la relación de precios del intercambio exterior = The concept of terms of trade and methods of computation

Incluye Bibliografía