The management of foreign exchange exposure on business contracts overseas

This thesis is a piece of applied research. It is the result of a joint project between the University of Aston Interdisciplinary Higher Degrees Scheme and International Aeradio plc (IAL). It considers the structure and organisation of overseas business and the effects that exchange rate movements have on financial performance. It looks in detail at a series of overseas contracts and factors which affect the monitoring and performance of those contracts. From this initial research is developed a series of conceptual models which attempt to capture the effects of foreign exchange rate movements on contract costing, the monitoring of performance on overseas contracts and a measure of company wide exposure. These models are then considered in the context of real IAL generated data and circumstances. The work is finally considered in the context of a survey of other companies with a similar mode of undertaking overseas business with the aim of placing the work in a general context.

Bid-ask spread dynamics in foreign exchange markets

The aim of this paper is to examine the short term dynamics of foreign exchange rate spreads. Using a vector autoregressive model (VAR) we show that most of the variation in the spread comes from the long run dependencies between past and future spreads rather than being caused by changes in inventory, adverse selection, cost of carry or order processing costs. We apply the Integrated Cumulative Sum of Squares (ICSS) algorithm of Inclan and Tiao (1994) to discover how often spread volatility changes. We find that spread volatility shifts are relatively uncommon and shifts in one currency spread tend not to spillover to other currency spreads. © 2013.

Funding the ‘Islamic State’: looting antiquities and the international black market

A key revenue stream for various militant groups across the Middle East, including the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), is the illicit looting and trafficking of antiquities which are sold on the international black market. Various heritage sites are being looted by ISIS and others with devastating efficiency and on an industrial scale. While exact figures are difficult to ascertain, the profits from these looting operations are estimated to be the second largest revenue stream for ISIS after the illegal sale of crude oil. The illicit trafficking of antiquities is therefore financing the devastating advance of ISIS and any effort, including that by the Australian Department of Defence, to defeat ISIS must address this significant issue. More research is urgently needed to understand the precise nature, scope and variety of antiquities looting across the Middle East, the extent to which it is funding groups like ISIS, and to consider Australia’s role in international strategies to stanch this ongoing problem.

Multifractality and long-range dependence of asset returns: the scaling behavior of the Markov-switching multifractal model with lognormal volatility components

In this paper, we consider daily financial data from various sources (stock market indices, foreign exchange rates and bonds) and analyze their multiscaling properties by estimating the parameters of a Markov-switching multifractal (MSM) model with Lognormal volatility components. In order to see how well estimated models capture the temporal dependency of the empirical data, we estimate and compare (generalized) Hurst exponents for both empirical data and simulated MSM models. In general, the Lognormal MSM models generate "apparent" long memory in good agreement with empirical scaling provided that one uses sufficiently many volatility components. In comparison with a Binomial MSM specification [11], results are almost identical. This suggests that a parsimonious discrete specification is flexible enough and the gain from adopting the continuous Lognormal distribution is very limited.

Increasing Derivatives Market Activity in Emerging Markets and Exchange Rate Exposure

Understanding the effects of off-balance sheet transactions on interest and exchange rate exposures has become more important for emerging market countries that are experiencing remarkable growth in derivatives markets. Using firm level data, we report a significant fall in exposure over the past 10 years and relate this to higher derivatives market participation. Our methodology is composed of a three stage approach: First, we measure foreign exchange exposures using the Adler-Dumas (1984) model. Next, we follow an indirect approach to infer derivatives market participation at the firm level. Finally, we study the relationship between exchange rate exposure and derivatives market participation. Our results show that foreign exchange exposure is negatively related to derivatives market participation, and support the hedging explanation of the exchange rate exposure puzzle. This decline is especially salient in the financial sector, for bigger firms, and over longer time periods. Results are robust to using different exchange rates, a GARCH-SVAR approach to measure exchange rate exposure, and different return horizons.

The market for processed foodstuffs in Nigeria: The case of canned fish

This paper highlights the potential contribution of the processed food industry (especially with regard to prepared and preserved fish) to the domestic industrial sector. Data for the study were collected from a sample of 85 retail canned fish sellers in South-Western Nigeria (45 and 40 respondents in Oyo and Lagos states respectively). Approaches were also made to government officials and merchant-agents connected with the importation, trade-regulation and distribution of fish in Nigeria. The study examined, in considerable detail, the marketing channels, services, prices and margins of canned fish in the area of study. The paper concludes that efforts should be made to encourage local processing and canning of fish not only to save on foreign exchange and importation costs but also to be able to meet the rapidly growing demand for this product in the country

The financial system in Mozambique: Opportunities, barriers and market potential

This research is empirical and exploratory intending to analyse the attractiveness of banking in Mozambique, considering its positive outlook. To identify the opportunities and barriers, the methods adopted were elite interviews with banking executives, complemented by secondary data. The opportunities for new entrants seem to include bankarization and the emergence of micro and smallmedium enterprises; other avenues seem to include investment banking, support of mega-projects (e.g. energy, infrastructures) through syndicates and cooperation with multilaterals, and the participation in developing capital markets. Conversely, the main barriers include shortage of talent, inadequate infrastructures, poverty, unsophisticated entrepreneurial culture (e.g. informal economy, inadequate financial reporting), burdensome bureaucracy (e.g. visas), foreign exchange regulation, as well as low liquidity and high funding costs for banks. The key conclusions suggest a window of opportunity for niche markets, and new products and services in retail and investment banking.

Implication of Trade, Livelihood and Employment Exclusion among Workers in Plantation Sector in Kerala

The first part of the study has focused on the trends in area, production and productivity comparing the state’s performance with of national level performance. Also an attempt was made to understand the trends in commodity price over the years especially in the post liberalization period from the early 1990s. Plantation commodities occupy an important share in the country’s export basket and thereby earning foreign exchange to the national exchequer. Taking into consideration the competitive dimension of natural rubber, cardamom and pepper in the export market was analyzed to see penetration of these commodities in the world market.The second part of the study has tried to understand the plantation workers livelihood by understand the employment generation in the sector. Livelihood assets of plantation workers were analyzed to understand the nature of ownership of various assets. Understanding the poor quality and ownership of various livelihood assets and their relative deprivation the study also tried to understand the income-expenditure patterns and the nature of indebtedness among workers and the factors responsible for deprivation and thereby social exclusion.Area, Production and productivity trends of rubber, pepper and cardamom show a mixed picture. Area, Production trends are impacted greatly by the commodity price of the plantation crops.High correlation exists between commodity price and area and production trends of plantation crops in the state.In terms of Natural Rubber, Kerala experienced a steady growth over the years in terms of area production and productivity as the price of rubber has increasedIn terms of black pepper, the state witnessed a deceleration in growth.In the case of cardamom the area of cultivation declined whereas production increasedProductivity of natural rubber, pepper and cardamom has increased substantially over the yearsEmployment pattern in rubber and spices sub-sector has been analyzed by looking in to the commodity prices so as to see the changes in employment pattern over the years. The study has helped to understand that commodity price and employment generation in plantations are interconnected to such an extent that a fall in the commodity price have greater reverberations on the employment pattern in plantations.Livelihood analysis both in the small and large holdings show that workers belonging to rubber (large and small rubber) plantations have shown better possession of livelihood assets when compared to spices plantation workers as 16.2 percent of the spices sub-sector workers claimed about ownership of house which is considered to be an important and primary livelihood asset.In the case of natural assets like accessibility, availability and duration of water for drinking and other household purposes, the situation of workers in spices plantation still remain poor as around 80 percent of workers depending on public well public taps and canals as source of drinking water.Evaluating financial assets also give clear indication that the road to secure financial assets still remains a distant dream for the workers in plantation sectorEvaluating income and expenditure trends pinpoints to the fact that disparity in terms of income exist among the plantation workersWhile observing the employment though wage levels have improved because of improvement in commodity price of plantation crops, significant improvements are not visible in their livelihood and they remain excluded compared to other sections of the society.

Detecting intraday periodicities with application to high frequency exchange rates

Many recent papers have documented periodicities in returns, return volatility, bid–ask spreads and trading volume, in both equity and foreign exchange markets. We propose and employ a new test for detecting subtle periodicities in time series data based on a signal coherence function. The technique is applied to a set of seven half-hourly exchange rate series. Overall, we find the signal coherence to be maximal at the 8-h and 12-h frequencies. Retaining only the most coherent frequencies for each series, we implement a trading rule that is based on these observed periodicities. Our results demonstrate in all cases except one that, in gross terms, the rules can generate returns that are considerably greater than those of a buy-and-hold strategy, although they cannot retain their profitability net of transactions costs. We conjecture that this methodology could constitute an important tool for financial market researchers which will enable them to detect, quantify and rank the various periodic components in financial data better.

Cambium non est mutuum: exchange and interest rates in medieval Europe

A major gap in our understanding of the medieval economy concerns interest rates, especially relating to commercial credit. Although direct evidence about interest rates is scattered and anecdotal, there is much more surviving information about exchange rates. Since both contemporaries and historians have suggested that exchange and rechange transactions could be used to disguise the charging of interest in order to circumvent the usury prohibition, it should be possible to back out the interest rates from exchange rates. The following analysis is based on a new dataset of medieval exchange rates collected from commercial correspondence in the archive of Francesco di Marco Datini of Prato, c.1383-1411. It demonstrates that the time value of money was consistently incorporated into market exchange rates. Moreover, these implicit interest rates are broadly comparable to those received from other types of commercial loan and investment. Although on average profitable, the return on any individual exchange and rechange transaction did involve a degree of uncertainty that may have justified their non-usurious nature. However, there were also practical reasons why medieval merchants may have used foreign exchange transactions as a means of extending credit.

Time-varying dependence in the intraday AUS/USD spot market

Using a high-frequency data set of the spot Australian dollar/US dollar this study examines the distribution of quotes and returns across the 24 hour trading "day". Employing statistical methods for measuring long-tenn dependence in time-series we find evidence of time-varying dependence and volatility that aligns with the opening and closing of markets. This variation is attributed to the effects of liquidity and the price-discovery actions of dealers.

Australian forex market anaylsis using connectionist models

The need for intelligent monitoring systems has become a necessity to keep track of the complex forex market. The forex market is difficult to understand by an average individual. However, once the market is broken down into simple terms, the average individual can begin to understand the foreign exchange market and use it as a financial instrument for future investing. This paper is an attempt to compare the performance of a Takagi-Sugeno type neuro-fuzzy system and a feed forward neural network trained using the scaled conjugate gradient algorithm to predict the average monthly forex rates. The exchange values of Australian dollar are considered with respect to US dollar, Singapore dollar, New Zealand dollar, Japanese yen and United Kingdom pound. The connectionist models were trained using 70% of the data and remaining was used for testing and validation purposes. It is observed that the proposed connectionist models were able to predict the average forex rates one month ahead accurately. Experiment results also reveal that neuro-fuzzy technique performed better than the neural network.

Low-frequency volatility of yen interest rate swap market in relation to macroeconomic risk

Using ‘low-frequency’ volatility extracted from aggregate volatility shocks in interest rate swap (hereafter, IRS) market, this paper investigates whether Japanese yen IRS volatility can be explained by macroeconomic risks. The analysis suggests that this low-frequency yen IRS volatility has strong and positive association with most of the macroeconomic risk proxies (e.g., volatility of consumer price index, industrial production volatility, foreign exchange volatility, slope of the term structure and money supply) with the exception of the unemployment rate, which is negatively related to IRS volatility. This finding is fairly consistent with the argument that the greater the macroeconomic risk the greater is the use of derivative instruments to hedge or speculate. The relationship between the macroeconomic risks and IRS volatility varies slightly across the different swap maturities but is robust to alternative volatility specifications. This linkage between swap market and macroeconomy has practical implications since market makers and hedgers use the swap rate as benchmark for pricing long-term interest rates, corporate bonds and various other securities.