城市发展与地质环境相互作用机制及数量分析—北海市可持续发展战略研究

Based on a viewpoint of an intricate system demanding high, this thesis advances a new concept that urban sustainable development stratagem is a high harmony and amalgamation among urban economy, geo-environment and tech-capital, and the optimum field of which lies in their mutual matching part, which quantitatively demarcates the optimum value field of urban sustainable development and establishes the academic foundation to describe and analyze sustainable development stratagem. And establishes a series of cause-effect model, a analysissitus model, flux model as well as its recognizing mode for urban system are established by the approach of System Dynamics, which can distinguish urban states by its polarity of entropy flows. At the same time, the matter flow, energy flow and information flow which exist in the course of urban development are analyzed based on the input/output (I/O) relationships of urban economy. And a new type of I/O relationships, namely new resources-environment account, are established, in which both resource and environment factors are considered. All above that settles a theoretic foundation for resource economy and environment economy as well as quantitative relationships of inter-function between urban development and geoenvironment, and gives a new approach to analyze natinal economy and urban sustainable development. Based on an analysis of the connection between resource-environmental construct of geoenvironment and urban economy development, the Geoenvironmental Carrying Capability (GeCC) is analyzed. Further more, a series of definitions and formula about the Gross Carrying Capability (GCC), Structure Carrying Capability (SCC) and Impulse Carrying Capability (ICC) is achieved, which can be applied to evaluate both the quality and capacity of geoenvironment and thereunder to determine the scale and velocity for urban development. A demonstrative study of the above is applied to Beihai city (Guangxi province, PRC), and the numerical value laws between the urban development and its geoenvironment is studied by the I/O relationship in the urban economy as following: · the relationships between the urban economic development and land use as well as consumption of underground water, metal mineral, mineral energy source, metalloid mineral and other geologic resources. · the relationships between urban economy and waste output such as industrial "3 waste", dust, rubbish and living polluted water as well as the restricting impact of both resource-environmental factors and tech-capital on the urban grow. · Optimization and control analysis on the reciprocity between urban economy and its geoenvironment are discussed, and sensitive factors and its order of the urban geoenvironmental resources, wastes and economic sections are fixed, which can be applied to determine the urban industrial structure, scale, grow rate matching with its geoenvironment and tech-capital. · a sustainable development stratagem for the city is suggested.