Reinforcement Learning Based on the Bayesian Theorem for Electricity Markets Decision Support

This paper presents the applicability of a reinforcement learning algorithm based on the application of the Bayesian theorem of probability. The proposed reinforcement learning algorithm is an advantageous and indispensable tool for ALBidS (Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System), a multi-agent system that has the purpose of providing decision support to electricity market negotiating players. ALBidS uses a set of different strategies for providing decision support to market players. These strategies are used accordingly to their probability of success for each different context. The approach proposed in this paper uses a Bayesian network for deciding the most probably successful action at each time, depending on past events. The performance of the proposed methodology is tested using electricity market simulations in MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets). MASCEM provides the means for simulating a real electricity market environment, based on real data from real electricity market operators.

Separating sequential equilibrium in a Bayesian international duopoly

We consider two Cournot firms, one located in the home country and the other in the foreign country, producing substitute goods for consumption in a third country. We suppose that neither the home government nor the foreign firm know the costs of the home firm, while the foreign firm cost is common knowledge. We determine the separating sequential equilibrium outputs.

Data fusion with computational intelligence techniques: a case study of fuzzy inference for terrain assessment

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

Novel affinity pairs "tag-receptor" for the purification of fusion proteins

Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia - SFRH/BD/48804/2008 and the project PTDC/BI/65383/2006 assigned to Prof. Cecíla Roque and also to Associate Laboratory REQUIMTE (Pest-C/EQB/LA0006/2011)

Spatio-temporal patterns of tuberculosis incidence in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, and their relationship with social vulnerability: a Bayesian analysis

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. METHODS: We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. RESULTS: The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirão Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. CONCLUSIONS: The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.

Search for a Charged Higgs Boson Produced in the Vector-boson Fusion Mode with Decay H±→W±Z using pp Collisions at s√=8 TeV with the ATLAS Experiment

A search for a charged Higgs boson, H±, decaying to a W± boson and a Z boson is presented. The search is based on 20.3 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data at a center-of-mass energy of 8 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The H± boson is assumed to be produced via vector-boson fusion and the decays W±→qq′¯ and Z→e+e−/μ+μ− are considered. The search is performed in a range of charged Higgs boson masses from 200 to 1000 GeV. No evidence for the production of an H± boson is observed. Upper limits of 31--1020 fb at 95% CL are placed on the cross section for vector-boson fusion production of an H± boson times its branching fraction to W±Z. The limits are compared with predictions from the Georgi-Machacek Higgs Triplet Model.

Monovarietal extra-virgin olive oil classification: a fusion of human sensory attributes and an electronic tongue

Olive oil quality grading is traditionally assessed by human sensory evaluation of positive and negative attributes (olfactory, gustatory, and final olfactorygustatory sensations). However, it is not guaranteed that trained panelist can correctly classify monovarietal extra-virgin olive oils according to olive cultivar. In this work, the potential application of human (sensory panelists) and artificial (electronic tongue) sensory evaluation of olive oils was studied aiming to discriminate eight single-cultivar extra-virgin olive oils. Linear discriminant, partial least square discriminant, and sparse partial least square discriminant analyses were evaluated. The best predictive classification was obtained using linear discriminant analysis with simulated annealing selection algorithm. A low-level data fusion approach (18 electronic tongue signals and nine sensory attributes) enabled 100 % leave-one-out cross-validation correct classification, improving the discrimination capability of the individual use of sensor profiles or sensory attributes (70 and 57 % leave-one-out correct classifications, respectively). So, human sensory evaluation and electronic tongue analysis may be used as complementary tools allowing successful monovarietal olive oil discrimination.

Land cover classification of Lago Grande de Curuai floodplain (Amazon, Brazil) using multi-sensor and image fusion techniques

Given the limitations of different types of remote sensing images, automated land-cover classifications of the Amazon várzea may yield poor accuracy indexes. One way to improve accuracy is through the combination of images from different sensors, by either image fusion or multi-sensor classifications. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine which classification method is more efficient in improving land cover classification accuracies for the Amazon várzea and similar wetland environments - (a) synthetically fused optical and SAR images or (b) multi-sensor classification of paired SAR and optical images. Land cover classifications based on images from a single sensor (Landsat TM or Radarsat-2) are compared with multi-sensor and image fusion classifications. Object-based image analyses (OBIA) and the J.48 data-mining algorithm were used for automated classification, and classification accuracies were assessed using the kappa index of agreement and the recently proposed allocation and quantity disagreement measures. Overall, optical-based classifications had better accuracy than SAR-based classifications. Once both datasets were combined using the multi-sensor approach, there was a 2% decrease in allocation disagreement, as the method was able to overcome part of the limitations present in both images. Accuracy decreased when image fusion methods were used, however. We therefore concluded that the multi-sensor classification method is more appropriate for classifying land cover in the Amazon várzea.

KIAA1549: BRAF gene fusion and FGFR1 hotspot mutations are prognostic factors in pilocytic astrocytomas

Up to 20% of patients with pilocytic astrocytoma (PA) experience a poor outcome. BRAF alterations and Fibroblast growth factor receptor 1 (FGFR1) point mutations are key molecular alterations in Pas, but their clinical implications are not established. We aimed to determine the frequency and prognostic role of these alterations in a cohort of 69 patients with PAs. We assessed KIAA1549:BRAF fusion by fluorescence in situ hybridization and BRAF (exon 15) mutations by capillary sequencing. In addition, FGFR1 expression was analyzed using immunohistochemistry, and this was compared with gene amplification and hotspot mutations (exons 12 and 14) assessed by fluorescence in situ hybridization and capillary sequencing. KIAA1549:BRAF fusion was identified in almost 60% of cases. Two tumors harbored mutated BRAF. Despite high FGFR1 expression overall, no cases had FGFR1 amplifications. Three cases harbored a FGFR1 p.K656E point mutation. No correlation was observed between BRAF and FGFR1 alterations. The cases were predominantly pediatric (87%), and no statistical differences were observed in molecular alterations-related patient ages. In summary, we confirmed the high frequency of KIAA1549:BRAF fusion in PAs and its association with a better outcome. Oncogenic mutations of FGFR1, although rare, occurred in a subset of patients with worse outcome. These molecular alterations may constitute alternative targets for novel clinical approaches, when radical surgical resection is unachievable.

Hierarchical modelling of timber reference properties using probabilistic methods: Maximum Likelihood Method, Bayesian Methods and Probability Networks

In recent decades, an increased interest has been evidenced in the research on multi-scale hierarchical modelling in the field of mechanics, and also in the field of wood products and timber engineering. One of the main motivations for hierar-chical modelling is to understand how properties, composition and structure at lower scale levels may influence and be used to predict the material properties on a macroscopic and structural engineering scale. This chapter presents the applicability of statistic and probabilistic methods, such as the Maximum Likelihood method and Bayesian methods, in the representation of timber’s mechanical properties and its inference accounting to prior information obtained in different importance scales. These methods allow to analyse distinct timber’s reference properties, such as density, bending stiffness and strength, and hierarchically consider information obtained through different non, semi or destructive tests. The basis and fundaments of the methods are described and also recommendations and limitations are discussed. The methods may be used in several contexts, however require an expert’s knowledge to assess the correct statistic fitting and define the correlation arrangement between properties.

Generalized factor models: a bayesian approach

There is recent interest in the generalization of classical factor models in which the idiosyncratic factors are assumed to be orthogonal and there are identification restrictions on cross-sectional and time dimensions. In this study, we describe and implement a Bayesian approach to generalized factor models. A flexible framework is developed to determine the variations attributed to common and idiosyncratic factors. We also propose a unique methodology to select the (generalized) factor model that best fits a given set of data. Applying the proposed methodology to the simulated data and the foreign exchange rate data, we provide a comparative analysis between the classical and generalized factor models. We find that when there is a shift from classical to generalized, there are significant changes in the estimates of the structures of the covariance and correlation matrices while there are less dramatic changes in the estimates of the factor loadings and the variation attributed to common factors.