959 resultados para Basic reproduction number


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The collaboration of clinicians with basic science researchers is crucial for addressing clinically relevant research questions. In order to initiate such mutually beneficial relationships, we propose a model where early career clinicians spend a designated time embedded in established basic science research groups, in order to pursue a postgraduate qualification. During this time, clinicians become integral members of the research team, fostering long term relationships and opening up opportunities for continuing collaboration. However, for these collaborations to be successful there are pitfalls to be avoided. Limited time and funding can lead to attempts to answer clinical challenges with highly complex research projects characterised by a large number of "clinical" factors being introduced in the hope that the research outcomes will be more clinically relevant. As a result, the complexity of such studies and variability of its outcomes may lead to difficulties in drawing scientifically justified and clinically useful conclusions. Consequently, we stress that it is the basic science researcher and the clinician's obligation to be mindful of the limitations and challenges of such multi-factorial research projects. A systematic step-by-step approach to address clinical research questions with limited, but highly targeted and well defined research projects provides the solid foundation which may lead to the development of a longer term research program for addressing more challenging clinical problems. Ultimately, we believe that it is such models, encouraging the vital collaboration between clinicians and researchers for the work on targeted, well defined research projects, which will result in answers to the important clinical challenges of today.

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The process of learning symbolic Arabic digits in early childhood requires that magnitude and spatial information integrates with the concept of symbolic digits. Previous research has separately investigated the development of automatic access to magnitude and spatial information from symbolic digits. However, developmental trajectories of symbolic number knowledge cannot be fully understood when considering components in isolation. In view of this, we have synthesized the existing lines of research and tested the use of both magnitude and spatial information with the same sample of British children in Years 1, 2 and 3 (6-8 years of age). The physical judgment task of the numerical Stroop paradigm (NSP) demonstrated that automatic access to magnitude was present from Year 1 and the distance effect signaled that a refined processing of numerical information had developed. Additionally, a parity judgment task showed that the onset of the Spatial-Numerical Association of Response Codes (SNARC) effect occurs in Year 2. These findings uncover the developmental timeline of how magnitude and spatial representations integrate with symbolic number knowledge during early learning of Arabic digits and resolve inconsistencies between previous developmental and experimental research lines.

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The basic principles and equations are developed for elementary finance, based on the concept of compound interest. The five quantities of interest in such problems are present value, future value, amount of periodic payment, number of periods and the rate of interest per period. We consider three distinct means of computing each of these five quantities in Excel 2007: (i) use of algebraic equations, (ii) by recursive schedule and the Goal Seek facility, and (iii) use of Excel's intrinsic financial functions. The paper is intended to be used as the basis for a lesson plan and contains many examples and solved problems. Comment is made regarding the relative difficulty of each approach, and a prominent theme is the systematic use of more than one method to increase student understanding and build confidence in the answer obtained. Full instructions to build each type of model are given and a complete set of examples and solutions may be downloaded (Examples.xlsx and Solutions.xlsx).

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The five quantities of interest in elementary finance problems are present value, future value, amount of periodic payment, number of periods and the rate of compound interest per period. A recursive approach to computing each of these five quantities in a modern version of Excel, for the case of ordinary annuities, is described. The aim is to increase student understanding and build confidence in the answer obtained, and this may be achieved with only linear relationships and in cases where student knowledge of algebra is essentially zero. Annuity problems may be solved without use of logarithms and black-box intrinsic functions; these being used only as check mechanisms. The author has had success with the method at Bond University and surrounding high schools in Queensland, Australia.

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This paper proposes solutions to three issues pertaining to the estimation of finite mixture models with an unknown number of components: the non-identifiability induced by overfitting the number of components, the mixing limitations of standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling techniques, and the related label switching problem. An overfitting approach is used to estimate the number of components in a finite mixture model via a Zmix algorithm. Zmix provides a bridge between multidimensional samplers and test based estimation methods, whereby priors are chosen to encourage extra groups to have weights approaching zero. MCMC sampling is made possible by the implementation of prior parallel tempering, an extension of parallel tempering. Zmix can accurately estimate the number of components, posterior parameter estimates and allocation probabilities given a sufficiently large sample size. The results will reflect uncertainty in the final model and will report the range of possible candidate models and their respective estimated probabilities from a single run. Label switching is resolved with a computationally light-weight method, Zswitch, developed for overfitted mixtures by exploiting the intuitiveness of allocation-based relabelling algorithms and the precision of label-invariant loss functions. Four simulation studies are included to illustrate Zmix and Zswitch, as well as three case studies from the literature. All methods are available as part of the R package Zmix, which can currently be applied to univariate Gaussian mixture models.

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The development of innovative methods of stock assessment is a priority for State and Commonwealth fisheries agencies. It is driven by the need to facilitate sustainable exploitation of naturally occurring fisheries resources for the current and future economic, social and environmental well being of Australia. This project was initiated in this context and took advantage of considerable recent achievements in genomics that are shaping our comprehension of the DNA of humans and animals. The basic idea behind this project was that genetic estimates of effective population size, which can be made from empirical measurements of genetic drift, were equivalent to estimates of the successful number of spawners that is an important parameter in process of fisheries stock assessment. The broad objectives of this study were to 1. Critically evaluate a variety of mathematical methods of calculating effective spawner numbers (Ne) by a. conducting comprehensive computer simulations, and by b. analysis of empirical data collected from the Moreton Bay population of tiger prawns (P. esculentus). 2. Lay the groundwork for the application of the technology in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). 3. Produce software for the calculation of Ne, and to make it widely available. The project pulled together a range of mathematical models for estimating current effective population size from diverse sources. Some of them had been recently implemented with the latest statistical methods (eg. Bayesian framework Berthier, Beaumont et al. 2002), while others had lower profiles (eg. Pudovkin, Zaykin et al. 1996; Rousset and Raymond 1995). Computer code and later software with a user-friendly interface (NeEstimator) was produced to implement the methods. This was used as a basis for simulation experiments to evaluate the performance of the methods with an individual-based model of a prawn population. Following the guidelines suggested by computer simulations, the tiger prawn population in Moreton Bay (south-east Queensland) was sampled for genetic analysis with eight microsatellite loci in three successive spring spawning seasons in 2001, 2002 and 2003. As predicted by the simulations, the estimates had non-infinite upper confidence limits, which is a major achievement for the application of the method to a naturally-occurring, short generation, highly fecund invertebrate species. The genetic estimate of the number of successful spawners was around 1000 individuals in two consecutive years. This contrasts with about 500,000 prawns participating in spawning. It is not possible to distinguish successful from non-successful spawners so we suggest a high level of protection for the entire spawning population. We interpret the difference in numbers between successful and non-successful spawners as a large variation in the number of offspring per family that survive – a large number of families have no surviving offspring, while a few have a large number. We explored various ways in which Ne can be useful in fisheries management. It can be a surrogate for spawning population size, assuming the ratio between Ne and spawning population size has been previously calculated for that species. Alternatively, it can be a surrogate for recruitment, again assuming that the ratio between Ne and recruitment has been previously determined. The number of species that can be analysed in this way, however, is likely to be small because of species-specific life history requirements that need to be satisfied for accuracy. The most universal approach would be to integrate Ne with spawning stock-recruitment models, so that these models are more accurate when applied to fisheries populations. A pathway to achieve this was established in this project, which we predict will significantly improve fisheries sustainability in the future. Regardless of the success of integrating Ne into spawning stock-recruitment models, Ne could be used as a fisheries monitoring tool. Declines in spawning stock size or increases in natural or harvest mortality would be reflected by a decline in Ne. This would be good for data-poor fisheries and provides fishery independent information, however, we suggest a species-by-species approach. Some species may be too numerous or experiencing too much migration for the method to work. During the project two important theoretical studies of the simultaneous estimation of effective population size and migration were published (Vitalis and Couvet 2001b; Wang and Whitlock 2003). These methods, combined with collection of preliminary genetic data from the tiger prawn population in southern Gulf of Carpentaria population and a computer simulation study that evaluated the effect of differing reproductive strategies on genetic estimates, suggest that this technology could make an important contribution to the stock assessment process in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). Advances in the genomics world are rapid and already a cheaper, more reliable substitute for microsatellite loci in this technology is available. Digital data from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are likely to super cede ‘analogue’ microsatellite data, making it cheaper and easier to apply the method to species with large population sizes.

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This study determined the starvation tolerance of Tribolium castaneum (Herbst), Rhyzopertha dominica (F.) and Sitophilus oryzae (L.) in terms of both adult survival and reproduction, the impact of starvation on reproduction not having been studied before. Experiments were conducted at 30°C and 55% or 70% r.h. using a laboratory strain and a field strain of each species. The number of progeny was a better indicator of the impact of starvation on a species than adult survival. Tribolium castaneum was the most tolerant species, requiring up to 35 d starvation before no progeny were produced. Rhyzopertha dominica and S. oryzae required up to 8 d starvation before no progeny were produced. The results suggest that hygiene will have a greater impact on populations of S. oryzae and R. dominica than T. castaneum.

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Feldrabbiner Dr. Sali Lewi, Breslau

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The spotted gum species complex represents a group of four eucalypt hardwood taxa that have a native range that spans the east coast of Australia, with a morphological cline from Victoria to northern Queensland. Of this group, Corymbia citriodora subsp. variegata (CCV) is widespread in south-eastern Queensland and northern New South Wales. It is currently the most commonly harvested native hardwood in Queensland. However, little basic knowledge of the reproductive biology of the species is available to inform genetic improvement and resource management programmes. Here we take an integrative approach, using both field and molecular data, to identify ecological factors important to mating patterns in native populations of CCV. Field observation of pollinator visitation and flowering phenology of 20 trees showed that foraging behaviour of pollinator guilds varies depending on flowering phenology and canopy structure. A positive effect of tree mean flowering effort was found on insect visitation, while bat visitation was predicted by tree height and by the number of trees simultaneously bearing flowers. Moreover, introduced honeybees were observed frequently, performing 73% of detected flower visits. Conversely, nectar-feeding birds and mammals were observed sporadically with lorikeets and honeyeaters each contributing to 11% of visits. Fruit bats, represented solely by the grey-headed flying fox, performed less than 2% of visits. Genotyping at six microsatellite markers in 301 seeds from 17 families sampled from four of Queensland's native forests showed that CCV displays a mixed-mating system that is mostly outcrossing (tm = 0.899 ± 0.021). Preferential effective pollination from near-neighbours was detected by means of maximum-likelihood paternity analysis with up to 16% of reproduction events resulting from selfing. Forty to 48% of fertilising pollen was also carried from longer distance (>60 m). Marked differences in foraging behaviour and visitation frequency between observed pollinator guilds suggests that the observed dichotomy of effective pollen movement in spotted gums may be due to frequent visit from introduced honeybees favouring geitonogamy and sporadic visits from honeyeaters and fruit bats resulting in potential long-distance pollinations.

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Zebu (Bos indicus) crossbred beef cows (Droughtmaster) were maintained long-term (16 months) on standard nutrition (SN) or improved nutrition (IN). Cows on IN had better body condition and greater (P<0.05) circulating concentrations of leptin than cows on SN (0.7±0.1n/ml and 1.7±0.1n/ml, respectively). There were no outstanding differences between SN and IN cows in basal number of ovarian follicles (≤4mm, 5-8mm, and≥9mm) and there were also no differences in number of oocytes recovered by oocyte pick-up. Cows on IN had a greater (P<0.05) number of total follicles after stimulation with FSH than cows on SN. Oocytes from cows on IN had greater (P<0.05) lipid content than cows on SN (-0.23±0.16 and 0.20±0.18 arbitrary units, respectively) and oocytes of the former cows also tended to have more active mitochondria, although this was not significant. Cows on IN showed a positive relationship (R2=0.31, P<0.05) between plasma leptin and oocyte lipid content. Lipids are utilized by oocytes during high energy consumptive processes including fertilization and early cleavage. The greater lipid content of oocytes from IN cows could therefore confer a reproductive advantage. The present study has shown relationships between nutrition, body condition, circulating leptin, and oocyte lipid content, but a clear cause-and-effect requires further investigation in the cow. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

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Background To reduce nursing shortages, accelerated nursing programs are available for domestic and international students. However, the withdrawal and failure rates from these programs may be different than for the traditional programs. The main aim of our study was to improve the retention and experience of accelerated nursing students. Methods The academic background, age, withdrawal and failure rates of the accelerated and traditional students were determined. Data from 2009 and 2010 were collected prior to intervention. In an attempt to reduce the withdrawal of accelerated students, we set up an intervention, which was available to all students. The assessment of the intervention was a pre-post-test design with non-equivalent groups (the traditional and the accelerated students). The elements of the intervention were a) a formative website activity of some basic concepts in anatomy, physiology and pharmacology, b) a workshop addressing study skills and online resources, and c) resource lectures in anatomy/physiology and microbiology. The formative website and workshop was evaluated using questionnaires. Results The accelerated nursing students were five years older than the traditional students (p < 0.0001). The withdrawal rates from a pharmacology course are higher for accelerated nursing students, than for traditional students who have undertaken first year courses in anatomy and physiology (p = 0.04 in 2010). The withdrawing students were predominantly the domestic students with non-university qualifications or equivalent experience. The failure rates were also higher for this group, compared to the traditional students (p = 0.05 in 2009 and 0.03 in 2010). In contrast, the withdrawal rates for the international and domestic graduate accelerated students were very low. After the intervention, the withdrawal and failure rates in pharmacology for domestic accelerated students with non-university qualifications were not significantly different than those of traditional students. Conclusions The accelerated international and domestic graduate nursing students have low withdrawal rates and high success rates in a pharmacology course. However, domestic students with non-university qualifications have higher withdrawal and failure rates than other nursing students and may be underprepared for university study in pharmacology in nursing programs. The introduction of an intervention was associated with reduced withdrawal and failure rates for these students in the pharmacology course.