A disease evolution model with uncertain parameters

In this study we consider the SIS epidemiological model (susceptible-infected-susceptible) in which the transmission and recuperation rates are considered fuzzy sets. The concepts of possibility measures and fuzzy expectancy value are used to obtain the basic reproduction value for infected groups with different viral charge.

Epidemiological Models of Directly Transmitted Diseases: An Approach via Fuzzy Sets Theory

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Chromosomal evolution in Pleurothallidinae (Orchidaceae: Epidendroideae) with an emphasis on the genus Acianthera: chromosome numbers and heterochromatin

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Resurgence of HIV infection among men who have sex with men in Switzerland: mathematical modelling study

Background New HIV infections in men who have sex with men (MSM) have increased in Switzerland since 2000 despite combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). The objectives of this mathematical modelling study were: to describe the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in MSM in Switzerland using national data; to explore the effects of hypothetical prevention scenarios; and to conduct a multivariate sensitivity analysis. Methodology/Principal Findings The model describes HIV transmission, progression and the effects of cART using differential equations. The model was fitted to Swiss HIV and AIDS surveillance data and twelve unknown parameters were estimated. Predicted numbers of diagnosed HIV infections and AIDS cases fitted the observed data well. By the end of 2010, an estimated 13.5% (95% CI 12.5, 14.6%) of all HIV-infected MSM were undiagnosed and accounted for 81.8% (95% CI 81.1, 82.4%) of new HIV infections. The transmission rate was at its lowest from 1995–1999, with a nadir of 46 incident HIV infections in 1999, but increased from 2000. The estimated number of new infections continued to increase to more than 250 in 2010, although the reproduction number was still below the epidemic threshold. Prevention scenarios included temporary reductions in risk behaviour, annual test and treat, and reduction in risk behaviour to levels observed earlier in the epidemic. These led to predicted reductions in new infections from 2 to 26% by 2020. Parameters related to disease progression and relative infectiousness at different HIV stages had the greatest influence on estimates of the net transmission rate. Conclusions/Significance The model outputs suggest that the increase in HIV transmission amongst MSM in Switzerland is the result of continuing risky sexual behaviour, particularly by those unaware of their infection status. Long term reductions in the incidence of HIV infection in MSM in Switzerland will require increased and sustained uptake of effective interventions.

Ebola virus disease outbreak in Nigeria: Transmission dynamics and rapid control.

International air travel has already spread Ebola virus disease (EVD) to major cities as part of the unprecedented epidemic that started in Guinea in December 2013. An infected airline passenger arrived in Nigeria on July 20, 2014 and caused an outbreak in Lagos and then Port Harcourt. After a total of 20 reported cases, including 8 deaths, Nigeria was declared EVD free on October 20, 2014. We quantified the impact of early control measures in preventing further spread of EVD in Nigeria and calculated the risk that a single undetected case will cause a new outbreak. We fitted an EVD transmission model to data from the outbreak in Nigeria and estimated the reproduction number of the index case at 9.0 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.2-15.6). We also found that the net reproduction number fell below unity 15 days (95% CI: 11-21 days) after the arrival of the index case. Hence, our study illustrates the time window for successful containment of EVD outbreaks caused by infected air travelers.

Comparative genetics in the grasses

Genetic mapping of wheat, maize, and rice and other grass species with common DNA probes has revealed remarkable conservation of gene content and gene order over the 60 million years of radiation of Poaceae. The linear organization of genes in some nine different genomes differing in basic chromosome number from 5 to 12 and nuclear DNA amount from 400 to 6,000 Mb, can be described in terms of only 25 “rice linkage blocks.” The extent to which this intergenomic colinearity is confounded at the micro level by gene duplication and micro-rearrangements is still an open question. Nevertheless, it is clear that the elucidation of the organization of the economically important grasses with larger genomes, such as maize (2n = 10, 4,500 Mb DNA), will, to a greater or lesser extent, be predicted from sequence analysis of smaller genomes such as rice, with only 400 Mb, which in turn may be greatly aided by knowledge of the entire sequence of Arabidopsis, which may be available as soon as the turn of the century. Comparative genetics will provide the key to unlock the genomic secrets of crop plants with bigger genomes than Homo sapiens.

Stability and sensitivity analysis of Be-CoDiS, an epidemiological model to predict the spread of human diseases between countries. Validation with data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Ebola virus disease is a lethal human and primate disease that requires a particular attention from the international health authorities due to important recent outbreaks in some Western African countries and isolated cases in European and North-America continents. Regarding the emergency of this situation, various decision tools, such as mathematical models, were developed to assist the authorities to focus their efforts in important factors to eradicate Ebola. In a previous work, we have proposed an original deterministic spatial-temporal model, called Be-CoDiS (Between-Countries Disease Spread), to study the evolution of human diseases within and between countries by taking into consideration the movement of people between geographical areas. This model was validated by considering numerical experiments regarding the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic. In this article, we propose to perform a stability analysis of Be-CoDiS. Our first objective is to study the equilibrium states of simplified versions of this model, limited to the cases of one an two countries, and to determine their basic reproduction ratios. Then, in order to give some recommendations for the allocation of resources used to control the disease, we perform a sensitivity analysis of those basic reproduction ratios regarding the model parameters. Finally, we validate the obtained results by considering numerical experiments based on data from the 2014-16 West African Ebola Virus Disease epidemic.

Mathematical Modeling to Assess the Drivers of the Recent Emergence of Typhoid Fever in Blantyre, Malawi

BACKGROUND: Multiyear epidemics of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi have been reported from countries across eastern and southern Africa in recent years. In Blantyre, Malawi, a dramatic increase in typhoid fever cases has recently occurred, and may be linked to the emergence of the H58 haplotype. Strains belonging to the H58 haplotype often exhibit multidrug resistance and may have a fitness advantage relative to other Salmonella Typhi strains.

METHODS: To explore hypotheses for the increased number of typhoid fever cases in Blantyre, we fit a mathematical model to culture-confirmed cases of Salmonella enterica infections at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre. We explored 4 hypotheses: (1) an increase in the basic reproductive number (R0) in response to increasing population density; (2) a decrease in the incidence of cross-immunizing infection with Salmonella Enteritidis; (3) an increase in the duration of infectiousness due to failure to respond to first-line antibiotics; and (4) an increase in the transmission rate following the emergence of the H58 haplotype.

RESULTS: Increasing population density or decreasing cross-immunity could not fully explain the observed pattern of typhoid emergence in Blantyre, whereas models allowing for an increase in the duration of infectiousness and/or the transmission rate of typhoid following the emergence of the H58 haplotype provided a good fit to the data.

CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that an increase in the transmissibility of typhoid due to the emergence of drug resistance associated with the H58 haplotype may help to explain recent outbreaks of typhoid in Malawi and similar settings in Africa.

Evaluation of a Quality Improvement (QI) Intervention for Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health (MNCH) in Colombia: The Mil Días Intervention of SINERGIAS in the Department of Bolívar

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Costs of female reproduction in a conifer tree: a whole-tree level assessment

1. Costs of reproduction lie at the core of basic ecological and evolutionary theories, and their existence is commonly invoked to explain adaptive processes. Despite their sheer importance, empirical evidence for the existence and quantification of costs of reproduction in tree species comes mostly from correlational studies, while more comprehensive approaches remain missing. Manipulative experiments are a preferred approach to study cost of reproduction, as they allow controlling for otherwise inherent confounding factors like size or genetic background. 2. Here, we conducted a manipulative experiment in a Pinus halepensis common garden, removing developing cones from a group of trees and comparing growth and reproduction after treatment with a control group. We also estimated phenotypic and genetic correlations between reproductive and vegetative traits. 3. Manipulated trees grew slightly more than control trees just after treatment, with just a transient, marginally non-significant difference. By contrast, larger differences were observed for the number of female cones initiated 1 year after treatment, with an increase of 70% more cones in the manipulated group. Phenotypic and genetic correlations showed that smaller trees invested a higher proportion of their resources in reproduction, compared with larger trees, which could be interpreted as an indirect evidence for costs of reproduction. 4. Synthesis. This research showed a high impact of current reproduction on reproductive potential, even when not significant on vegetative growth. This has strong implications for how we understand adaptive strategies in forest trees and should encourage further interest on their still poorly known reproductive life-history traits.

Hand receipt manual covering End Item/Components of End Item (COEI), Basic Issue Items (BII), and Additional Authorization List (AAL) for night vision goggles AN/PVS-5 and AN/PVS-5A, (NSN 5855-00-150-1820), line item number N04456.

"21 July 1979."

Continuous reproduction and recruitment in the narrowback mud crab Panopeus americanus (Brachyura, Panopeidae) in a remnant human-impacted mangrove area

The population structure, reproductive period, and juvenile recruitment of Panopeus americanus were studied in order to enhance knowledge of its life cycle and reproductive strategy and promote the maintenance of its natural stocks in an impacted region. Specimens were collected in the remnant human-impacted mangrove at Araca, state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, at two-month intervals from January to November 2005, at low tide, with a capture effort by three people. The crabs were measured (carapace width, CW) and sexed. The total catch was 275 animals, including 132 males (48.0%); 127 females (46.2%), of which 39 were ovigerous (14.2% of total catch); and 16 individuals whose sex could not be identified (5.8%). No correlation was observed between water temperature and the number of collected individuals; however, there was a significant, positive correlation with salinity. Males were significantly larger than females. The size-frequency distribution was bimodal, reflecting the occurrende of more than one recruitment pulse and the differential abundance of adults during the period of study. The overall sex ratio was 1:0.97 favoring males, and was not significantly different from the expected value, i.e., this population fits the anomalous pattern of sex occurrence in size classes. Ovigerous females were captured in all sampled months, which explain the continuous recruitment observed. Expected low levels of individuals of different size classes in the population were not confirmed. All population aspects found here allowed us to infer that this population of P. americanus is well established in the impacted mangrove by virtue of its reproductive strategy.