Predictive uncertainty of chaotic daily streamflow using ensemble wavelet networks approach

Perfect or even mediocre weather predictions over a long period are almost impossible because of the ultimate growth of a small initial error into a significant one. Even though the sensitivity of initial conditions limits the predictability in chaotic systems, an ensemble of prediction from different possible initial conditions and also a prediction algorithm capable of resolving the fine structure of the chaotic attractor can reduce the prediction uncertainty to some extent. All of the traditional chaotic prediction methods in hydrology are based on single optimum initial condition local models which can model the sudden divergence of the trajectories with different local functions. Conceptually, global models are ineffective in modeling the highly unstable structure of the chaotic attractor. This paper focuses on an ensemble prediction approach by reconstructing the phase space using different combinations of chaotic parameters, i.e., embedding dimension and delay time to quantify the uncertainty in initial conditions. The ensemble approach is implemented through a local learning wavelet network model with a global feed-forward neural network structure for the phase space prediction of chaotic streamflow series. Quantification of uncertainties in future predictions are done by creating an ensemble of predictions with wavelet network using a range of plausible embedding dimensions and delay times. The ensemble approach is proved to be 50% more efficient than the single prediction for both local approximation and wavelet network approaches. The wavelet network approach has proved to be 30%-50% more superior to the local approximation approach. Compared to the traditional local approximation approach with single initial condition, the total predictive uncertainty in the streamflow is reduced when modeled with ensemble wavelet networks for different lead times. Localization property of wavelets, utilizing different dilation and translation parameters, helps in capturing most of the statistical properties of the observed data. The need for taking into account all plausible initial conditions and also bringing together the characteristics of both local and global approaches to model the unstable yet ordered chaotic attractor of a hydrologic series is clearly demonstrated.

DEPTH: a web server to compute depth and predict small-molecule binding cavities in proteins

Depth measures the extent of atom/residue burial within a protein. It correlates with properties such as protein stability, hydrogen exchange rate, protein-protein interaction hot spots, post-translational modification sites and sequence variability. Our server, DEPTH, accurately computes depth and solvent-accessible surface area (SASA) values. We show that depth can be used to predict small molecule ligand binding cavities in proteins. Often, some of the residues lining a ligand binding cavity are both deep and solvent exposed. Using the depth-SASA pair values for a residue, its likelihood to form part of a small molecule binding cavity is estimated. The parameters of the method were calibrated over a training set of 900 high-resolution X-ray crystal structures of single-domain proteins bound to small molecules (molecular weight < 1.5 KDa). The prediction accuracy of DEPTH is comparable to that of other geometry-based prediction methods including LIGSITE, SURFNET and Pocket-Finder (all with Matthew's correlation coefficient of similar to 0.4) over a testing set of 225 single and multi-chain protein structures. Users have the option of tuning several parameters to detect cavities of different sizes, for example, geometrically flat binding sites. The input to the server is a protein 3D structure in PDB format. The users have the option of tuning the values of four parameters associated with the computation of residue depth and the prediction of binding cavities. The computed depths, SASA and binding cavity predictions are displayed in 2D plots and mapped onto 3D representations of the protein structure using Jmol. Links are provided to download the outputs. Our server is useful for all structural analysis based on residue depth and SASA, such as guiding site-directed mutagenesis experiments and small molecule docking exercises, in the context of protein functional annotation and drug discovery.

Sequence-Structure Similarity: Do Sequentially Identical Peptide Fragments have Similar Three-Dimensional Structures?

The rapidly growing structure databases enhance the probability of finding identical sequences sharing structural similarity. Structure prediction methods are being used extensively to abridge the gap between known protein sequences and the solved structures which is essential to understand its specific biochemical and cellular functions. In this work, we plan to study the ambiguity between sequence-structure relationships and examine if sequentially identical peptide fragments adopt similar three-dimensional structures. Fragments of varying lengths (five to ten residues) were used to observe the behavior of sequence and its three-dimensional structures. The STAMP program was used to superpose the three-dimensional structures and the two parameters (Sequence Structure Similarity Score (Sc) and Root Mean Square Deviation value) were employed to classify them into three categories: similar, intermediate and dissimilar structures. Furthermore, the same approach was carried out on all the three-dimensional protein structures solved in the two organisms, Mycobacterium tuberculosis and Plasmodium falciparum to validate our results.

Heating characteristics of blunt swept fin-induced shock wave turbulent boundary layer interaction

An experimental study was conducted on shock wave turbulent boundary layer interactions caused by a blunt swept fin-plate configuration at Mach numbers of 5.0, 7.8, 9.9 for a Reynolds number range of (1.0.similar to 4.7) x 10(7)/m. Detailed heat transfer and pressure distributions were measured at fin deflection angles of up to 30 degrees for a sweepback angle of 67.6 degrees. Surface oil flow patterns and liquid crystal thermograms as well as schlieren pictures of fin shock shape were taken. The study shows that the flow was separated at deflection of 10 degrees and secondary separation were detected at deflection of theta greater than or equal to 20 degrees. The heat transfer and pressure distributions on flat plate showed an extensive plateau region followed by a distinct dip and local peak close to the fin foot. Measurements of the plateau pressure and heat transfer were in good agreement with existing prediction methods, but pressure and heating peak measurements at M greater than or equal to 6 were significantly lower than predicted by the simple prediction techniques at lower Mach numbers.

Aperfeiçoamento da previsão global em séries temporais caóticas

A previsão de valores futuros em séries temporais produzidas por sistemas caóticos pode ser aplicada em diversas áreas do conhecimento como Astronomia, Economia, Física, Medicina, Meteorologia e Oceanografia. O método empregado consiste na reconstrução do espaço de fase seguido de um termo de melhoria da previsão. As rotinas utilizadas para a previsão e análise nesta linha de pesquisa fazem parte do pacote TimeS, que apresenta resultados encorajadores nas suas aplicações. O aperfeiçoamento das rotinas computacionais do pacote com vistas à melhoria da acurácia obtida e à redução do tempo computacional é construído a partir da investigação criteriosa da minimização empregada na obtenção do mapa global. As bases matemáticas são estabelecidas e novas rotinas computacionais são criadas. São ampliadas as possibilidades de funções de ajuste que podem incluir termos transcendentais nos componentes dos vetores reconstruídos e também possuir termos lineares ou não lineares nos parâmetros de ajuste. O ganho de eficiência atingido permite a realização de previsões e análises que respondem a perguntas importantes relacionadas ao método de previsão e ampliam a possibilidade de aplicações a séries reais.

Sequencing, annotation and comparative analysis of nine BACs of giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca)

A 10-fold BAC library for giant panda was constructed and nine BACs were selected to generate finish sequences. These BACs could be used as a validation resource for the de novo assembly accuracy of the whole genome shotgun sequencing reads of giant panda newly generated by the Illumina GA sequencing technology. Complete sanger sequencing, assembly, annotation and comparative analysis were carried out on the selected BACs of a joint length 878 kb. Homologue search and de novo prediction methods were used to annotate genes and repeats. Twelve protein coding genes were predicted, seven of which could be functionally annotated. The seven genes have an average gene size of about 41 kb, an average coding size of about 1.2 kb and an average exon number of 6 per gene. Besides, seven tRNA genes were found. About 27 percent of the BAC sequence is composed of repeats. A phylogenetic tree was constructed using neighbor-join algorithm across five species, including giant panda, human, dog, cat and mouse, which reconfirms dog as the most related species to giant panda. Our results provide detailed sequence and structure information for new genes and repeats of giant panda, which will be helpful for further studies on the giant panda.

The aeroacoustics of transonic helicopter blades

One of the most important issues facing the helicopter industry today is helicopter noise, in particular transonic rotor noise. It is the main factor limiting cruise speeds, and there is real demand for efficient and reliable prediction methods which can be used in the rotor design process. This paper considers the Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings equation applied to a permeable control surface. The surface is chosen to be as small as possible, while enclosing both the blade and any transonic flow regions. This allows the problematic quadrupole term to always be neglected, and requires only near field CFD input data. It is therefore less computationally intensive than existing prediction methods, and moreover retains the physical interpretation of the sources in terms of thickness, loading and shock-associated noise. A computer program has been developed which implements the permeable surface form of retarded time formulation. The program has been validated and subsequently used to validate an acoustic 2-D CFD code. It is fast and reliable for subsonic motion, but it is demonstrated that it cannot be used at high subsonic or supersonic speeds. A second computer program implementing a more general formulation has also been developed and is presently being validated. This general formulation can be applied at high subsonic and supersonic speeds, except under one specific condition. © 2002 by the author(s). Published by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc.

碳酸盐岩缝洞型储层地球物理响应特征及预测方法研究

Proven by the petroleum exploration activities, the karsts-fissure reservoir in carbonate rocks is significant to find out the large scale oil & gas field. They are made up of the four reservoir types: karsts-cave, karsts-crack, crack-cave and fracture-pore-cave. Each reservoir space and each reservoir bed has different features of reservoir heterogeneity and small scale of pore-crack-cave. The fracture-cave reservoir in carbonate rocks is characteristic by multi-types and long oiliness well. The reservoir shape is controlled by the irregular pore-crack-cave. The development level of fracture and karst-cave is the key element of hydrocarbon enriching, high productivity and stable production. However, most of Carbonate formation are buried deeply and the signal-ration-noise of seismic reflection are very low. It is reason why the fracture-cave reservoir are difficult to be predicted effectively. In terms of surveyed and studied lots of the former research outcome, The author applied the methods of synthetical reservoir geophysical prediction from two ways including macrosopic and microcomic technics in terms of the reservoir-cap condition, geophysics and geology feature and difficulty of prediction in carbonate rocks. It is guiden by the new ideas of stratigraphy, sedimentology, sedimentography, reservoir geology and karst geology. The geophysics technology is key technics. In aspects of macroscopic studies, starting off the three efficiencies of controlling the reservoir distribution including sedimental facies, karst and fracture, by means of comprehensive utilization of geology, geophysics, boring well and well log, the study of reservoir features and karst inside story are developed in terms of data of individual well and multiple well. Through establishing the carbonate deposition model, karstic model and fracture model, the macro-distribution laws of carbonatite are carried out by the study of coherence analysis, seismic reflection feature analysis and palaeotectonics analysis. In aspects of microcosmic studies, starting off analysis in reservoir geophysical response feature of fracture and karst-cave model according to guidance of the macroscopic geological model in carbonate reservoir, the methods of the carbonate reservoir prediction are developed by comprehensively utilization of seismic multi-attribution intersection analysis, seismic inversion restricted by log, seismic discontinuity analysis, seimic spectrum attenuation gradient, moniliform reflection feature analysis and multiparameter karst reservoir appraisement.Through application of carbonate reservoir synthetical geophysics prediction, the author r successfully develops the beneficial reservoir distribution province in Ordovician of Katake block 1in middle Tarim basin. The fracture-cave reservoir distributions are delineated. The prospect direction and favorable aims are demonstrated. There are a set of carbonate reservoir prediction methods in middle Tarim basin. It is the favorable basic technique in predicting reservoir of the Ordovician carbonate in middle Tarim. Proven by exploration drilling, the favorable region of moniliform reflection fracture and pore-cave and cave-fracture in lower-middle Ordovician are coincidence with the region of hydrocarbon show. It’s indicated that the reservoir prediction methods described in the study of Ordovician carbonate formation are feasible practicably.

裂缝性油气藏储层预测方法研究

In this paper, based on the E & P situation in the oilfield and the theory of geophysical exploration, a series researches are conducted on fracture reservoir prediction technology in general，and it especially focus on some difficult points. The technological series which integrated amplitude preserved data processing、interpretation and its comprehensive application research as a whole were developed and this new method can be applied to the other similar oilfield exploration and development. The contents and results in this paper are listed as follows: 1. An overview was given on the status and development of fracture reservoir estimation technique, compare and analyze those geophysical prediction methods. This will be very helpful to the similar reservoir researches. 2. Analyze and conclude the characters of geologies and well logging response of burial hills fracture reservoir, those conclusions are used to steer the geophysical research and get satisfying results. 3. Forward modeling anisotropy seismic response of fracture reservoir. Quantitatively describe the azimuthal amplitude variation. Amplitude ellipse at each incidence angle is used to identify the fracture orientation. 4. Numerical simulation of structure stress based on finite difference method is carried out. Quantitatively describe and analyze the direction and intensity of fracture. 5. Conventional attributes extraction of amplitude preserved seismic data、attributes with different azimuthal angle and different offset are used to determine the relationship between the results and fracture distribution. 6. With spectrum decomposition method based on wavelet transform， the author disclose the reservoir distribution in space. It is a powerful tool to display its anisotropy. 7. Integrated seismic wave impendence、elastic impendence、spectrum decomposition、attribute extraction、fracture analysis result as a whole to identify and evaluate the fracture reservoir. An optimum workflow is constructed. It is used to practical oil&gas production and good results are obtained. This can indicate the wide foreground of this technique series.

基于弹性参数分析的碳酸盐岩储层预测方法研究

Prediction of Carbonate Reservoir Based on the Elastic Parameter Analysis Zhang Guangzhi (Solid Geophysics) Directed by Professor Liu Hong Abstract With the exploration and development of Puguang Oilfield, oil-gas exploration of carbonate rock in China has shown good prospects. Research on earthquake prediction methods for carbonate reservoir becomes the key of oil and gas exploration. Starting with analysis of geological characteristics of carbonate rock, prestack AVO inversion method, prestack elastic impedance inversion and parameter calculation method and seismic attribute extraction and optimization method were studied based on the analysis of rock physics in this work. First, variation characteristic and law of carbonate rock reservoir parameters were studied based on experimental data of rock physics, log data, analysis assay data, mud logging data and seismic data, so as to lay a foundation for the further reservoir identification and description. Then, the structure, type and propagation law of seismic wave field were analyzed through seismic forward modeling of the reservoir, and contact between information from log and geology data with elastic parameters, such as compressional wave and shear wave velocity and density were established, so as to provide a standard for reservoir identification and hydrocarbon detection using seismic reflection characteristics of the research area. Starting with the general concept of inverse problem, through analysis of Zoeppritz equation, three kinds of pre-stack inversion methods were derived and analyzed in detail, the AVO 3-parameter inversion based on Bayesian theory, the prestack AVO waveform inversion method and the simultaneous inversion method, based on the statistical hypothesis of inversion parameters and observation data and the Gauss distribution assumption of noise. The three methods were validated by model data and real data. Then, the elastic wave impedance inversion method of carbonate reservoir was investigated and the method of elastic parameter extraction from elastic impedance data was put forward. Based on the analysis of conventional methods of seismic attribute extraction and optimization, the time-frequency attributes and the wavelet attributes with time and amplitude feature were presented, and the prestack seismic attribute calculation method which can characterize the reservoir rock and fluid characteristic was presented. And the optimization of seismic attribute using the nonlinear KPCA method was also put forward. A series of seismic prediction technologies for carbonate reservoir were presented based on analysis of rock physics and seismic forward simulation technology. Practical application of these technologies was implemented in A oil field of Southern China and good effect has been achieved. Key words: carbonate rock; reservoir prediction; rock physics, prestack seismic inversion; seismic attribute

急倾斜金属矿体开采岩体移动规律与变形趋势预测研究

Rockmass movement due to mining steep metallic ore body is a considerable question in the surface movement and deformation issue caused by underground mining. Research on coal mining induced rockmass movement and its prediction problem have been performed for a long-term, and have achieved great progress at home and abroad. However, the rockmass movement caused by mining steep metal mine is distinctivly different from coal seam mining.. Existing surface movement laws and deformation prediction methods are not applicable to the rockmass movement caused by mining steep metal mine. So far the home and abroad research to this theory is presently at an early stage, and there isn’t mature theory or practical prediction method, which made a great impact on production. In this paper, the research object—Jinchuan nickel mine, which is typical steep metal mine, characterized by complex geological conditions, developed faults, cracked rockmass, high geostress, and prominent engineering stability problems. In addition, backfill mining method is used in the mine, the features of rockmass movement caused by this mining method are also different from other mining methods. In this paper, the laws of rock mass movement, deformation and destroy mechanism, and its prediction were analyzed based on the collection of data, detailed in-sit engineering geology survey, ground movement monitoring by GPS, theoretical analysis and numerical simulation. According to the GPS monitoring of ground surface movement, ground subsidence basin with apparent asymmetry is developing, the influence scope is larger in the upper faulted block than in the lower faulted block, and the center of ground movement is moving along the upper faulted block direction with increasing depth of mining. During the past half and seven years, the largest settlement has amounted to 1287.5mm, and corresponding horizontal displacement has amounted to 664.6mm. On the ground surface, two fissure belts show a fast-growing trend of closure. To sum up, mining steep metal mine with backfill method also exist the same serious problem of rockmass movement hazards. Fault, as a low intensity zone in rockmass, when it located within the region of mining influence, the change of potential energy mainly consumed in fault deformation associated with rockmass structure surface friction, which is the essence of displacement and stress barrier effects characterized by fault rupture zone. when steep fault located in the tensile deformation region incurred by underground excavation, no matter excavation in hangingwall or in footwall of the fault, there will be additional tensile stress on the vertical fault plane and decrease in the shear strength, and always showing characteristics of normal fault slip, which is the main reason of fault escarpment appeared on the ground surface. The No.14 shaft deformation and failure is triggered by fault activation, which showed with sidewall move, rupture, and break down features as the main form of a concentrated expression of fault effects. The size and orientation of principal stress in surrounding rock changed regularly with mining; therefore, roadway deformation and damage at different stages have different characteristics and distribution models. During the process of mining, low-intensity weak structures surface always showed the most obvious reaction, accompany with surface normal stress decrease and shear strength bring down, to some extent, occurred with relative slide and deformation. Meanwhile, the impact of mining is a relatively long process, making the structure surface effect of roadway deformation and damage more prominent than others under the influence of mining. Roadway surrounding rockmass deformation caused by the change of strain energy density field after excavation mainly belongs to elastic deformation, and the correspondented damage mainly belongs to brittle rupture, in this circumstance, surrounding rockmass will not appear large deformation. The large deformation of surrounding rockmass can only be the deformation associated with structure surface friction or the plastic deformation of itself, which mainly caused by the permanent self-weigh volume force，and long-term effect of mining led to the durability of this deformation Good pitting fill effect and supporting effect of backfill, as well as the friction of rockmass structure surface lead to obvious macro-rockmass movement with long-lag characteristics. In addition, the loss of original intensity and new structure surface arisen increased flexibility in rockmass and fill deformation in structure surface, which made the time required for rockmass potential energy translate into deformation work associated with plastic deformation and structure surface friction consumed much, and to a large extent, eliminated the time needed to do those plastic work during repeated mining, all of which are the fundamental reason of rockmass movement aftereffect more significant than before. Mining steep deposits in high tectonic stress area and in gravity stress area have different movement laws and deformation mechanism. The steep deposit, when the vertical size of the mining areas is smaller than the horizontal size of the orebody, no matter mining in gravity stress area or in high tectonic stress area, they have similar features of ground movement with mining horizontal orebody; contrarily, there will appear double settlement centers on the ground surface under the condition of mining in high tectonic stress area, while there will always be a single center under the other condition. Meanwhile the ground movement lever, scale of mining influence area and macro features of ground movement, deformation and fracture are also different from mining in gravity stress area, and the fundamental reason lies in the impact of orientation of the maximum principal stress on rock movement features in in-site rock stress field. When mining thick and steep deposit, the ground surface movement and deformation characteristic curves are significantly different from excavating the horizontal ore bed and thin steep deposit. According to the features of rockmass movement rate, the development process of mining-induced rockmass movement is divided into three stages: raising stage, steadily stage and gradually decay stage. Considering the actual exploitation situation, GPS monitoring results and macro-characteristics of surface movement, the current subsidence pattern of Jinchuan No.2 mine is in the early stage of development. Based on analysis of surface movement rate, surface subsidence rate increase rapidly when mining in double lever at the same time, and reach its peak until the exploitation model ended. When double lever mining translate into single, production decreased, surface subsidence rate suddenly start to reduce and maintain a relatively low value, and the largest subsidence center will slowly move along with the hangingwall ore body direction with increasing depth of mining, at the same time, the scope and extent of subsidence in footwall ore body will begin magnify, and a sub-settlement center will appear on ground surface, accompanied with the development and closure trend of ground fissure, the surrounding rockmass of shaft and roadway will be confronted to more frequent and severe deformation and failure, and which will have a negative impact on the overall stability of No.2 mine mining. On the premise of continuity of rockmass movement, gray system model can be used in ground rockmass movement prediction for good results. Under the condition of backfill mining step by step, the loose effect of compact status of the hard, broken rockmass led to lower energy release rate, although surrounding rockmass has high elastic energy, loose and damage occurred in the horizontal ore body, which made the mining process safety without any large geological hazards. During the period of mining the horizontal ore body to end, in view of its special “residual support role”, there will be no large scale rockmass movement hazards. Since ground surface movement mainly related to the intensity of mining speed and backfill effect, on the premise of constant mining speed, during the period of mining the horizontal ore body to end, the rate of ground surface rockmass movement and deformation won’t have sudden change.

泥岩裂缝储层地震识别的理论和方法

During the exploration of fractured reservoirs, worldwide difficult problems will be encountered: how to locate the fractured zones, how to quantitatively determine the azimuth, density, and distribution of the fractures, and how to compute the permeability and porosity of the fractures. In an endeavor to solve these problems, the fractured shale reservoir in SiKou area of ShengLi oil field was chosen as a study area. A study of seismic predictive theory and methods for solving problems encountered in fractured reservoir exploration are examined herein. Building on widely used current fractured reservoir exploration techniques, new seismic theories and methods focusing on wave propagation principles in anisotropic medium are proposed. Additionally, integrated new seismic data acquisition and processing methods are proposed. Based on research and application of RVA and WA methods from earlier research, a new method of acoustic impedance varying with azimuth (IPVA) creatively is put forth. Lastly combining drilling data, well log data, and geologic data, an integrated seismic predictive method for cracked reservoir bed was formed. A summary of the six parts of research work of this paper is outlined below. In part one, conventional geologic and geophysical prediction methods etc. for cracked reservoir exploration are examined, and the weaknesses of these approaches discussed. In part two, seismic wave propagation principles in cracked reservoirs are studied. The wave equation of seismic velocity and attenuation factor in three kinds of fracture mediums is induced, and the azimuth anisotropy of velocity and attenuation in fracture mediums is determined. In part three, building on the research and application of AVA and WA methods by a former researcher, a new method of acoustic impedance creatively varying with azimuth (IPVA) is introduced. A practical software package utilizing this technique is also introduced. In part four, Base on previously discussed theory, first a large full azimuth 3d seismic data (70km~2) was designed and acquired. Next, the volume was processed with conventional processing sequence. Then AVA, WA, and IPVA processing was applied, and finally the azimuth and density of the fractures were quantitatively determined by an integrated method. Predictions were supported by well data that indicate the approach is highly reliable. in part five, geological conditions contributing to cracked reservoir bed formation are analyzed in the LuoJia area resulting in the discovery that the main fractured zones are related to fault distribution in the basin, that also control the accumulation of the oil and gas, the generation mechanisms and types of fractured shale reservoirs are studied. Lastly, by using full 3D seismic attributes, azimuth and density of cracked reservoir zones are successfully quantitative predicted. Using an integrated approach that incorporates seismic, geologic and well log data, the best two fractured oil prospects in LouJia area are proposed. These results herein represent a break through in seismic technology, integrated seismic predictive theory, and production technology for fractured reservoirs. The approach fills a void that can be applied both inside China, and internationally. Importantly, this technique opens a new exploration play in the ShengLi oil field that while difficult has substantial potential. Properly applied, this approach could play an important role toward stabilizing the oil field' production. In addition, this technique could be extended fracture exploration in other oil fields producing substantial economic reward.

水库滑坡复活机理及其发展趋势预测研究

Various numbers of ancient landslides of various scales are frequently distributed on both banks of reservoirs, especially large reservoirs, both in China and abroad. During inundation and operation of theses reservoirs, some of the landslides are reactivated, which caused losses of people's lives and properties to various extents, some even disasters. Systematic studies are, however, very few on the reservoir-induced reactivation mechanism and development tendency prediction. Based on investigation of reservoir-induced reactivation phenomena of ancient landslides and relevant existing research problems, a systematic study is carried out on the field identification, induced reactivation mechanism, development tendency prediction, risk decision-making and treatment of reservoir-related ancient landslides, through analysis of large numbers of engineering geological investigation results, scientific experimental and research results, in combination with prevention and treatment practices of reservoir-related landslides both in China and abroad, and a series of research results have been obtained. 1. On the basis of study of the distribution features, genesis mechanism of ancient landslides on river banks, a set of scientific methods are summarized on field identification of ancient landslides, and a significant method named "lithologic sequence method" or "indicator layer method", is proposed, which is proved to be very useful. 2. A detail study is made on the reservoir-induced hydraulic effects and material mechanic effects (or softening effects) on the ancient landslide through model and case studies, which concludes that the magnitude and properties of reservoir-induced hydraulic effects are related to the shapes of sliding planes, water content and permeability of landslide materials and variation rate and magnitude of reservoir levels; the magnitude of material mechanic effects are related to the material composition (including mineral composition and grain size), natural water content and saturation state of sliding zones. Also a sensitive analysis is made on the factors that are related to the stabilities of the landslides, which indicate that the stability of a landslide is more sensitive to the groundwater head h_w in the slides and the inner friction angleψof sliding zones than others. 3. The joint inducing mechanism of rainfall and reservoir is also discussed in the paper through model analysis and case study, which proves that reservoir inundation increases firstly the sensitivity of a landslides to rainfall through reduction of its stability or cracking deformation which will increase the rainfall infiltration to the slide body, and then rainfall triggers reactivation or intensifies the reservoir-induced deformation of a landslide. 4. Based on rheologic test results of sliding zones of several reservoir-related ancient landslides, the rheologic characteristics of sliding zones have been discussed in detail and several typical rheologic models have been set up, which well explains the dynamic process of slide deformation. The response types to reservoir inundation and development tendency of reservoir -related ancient landslide are discussed in the paper based on field investigation results. And prediction methods for reservoir-related landslides have been studied based on the Mate-Synthetic principle of quantitative and qualitative analysis, as well as combination of computation and internal mechanism analysis, and a rheologic analytical method is proposed which is proved very useful for prediction of the landslide development tendency. 6. In disaster-prevention and treatment of reservoir-related landslides, risk decision-making has been proved very significant both in engineering and economics. Based on the practices in disaster-prevention and treatment of reservoir-related landslides both in China and abroad, the disaster-prevention risk decision-making for reservoir-related landslides has been proposed in terms of philosophy, methods and procedures, and well put into practice. A summary is also made through case study of the experiences of treatment of reservoir-related landslides both in China and abroad in terms of principle, methods and technical lines. 7 A detail study is made as a case study of the reactivated Maoping ancient landslide on the left bank of the Geheyan Reservoir on Qingjiang river in Hubei province, China, including its field identification features, reservoir-induced reactivation characteristics and mechanism, development tendency prediction and proposed counter measures based on risk analysis.

河流相砂岩油藏剩余油分布预测方法和富集规律研究

针对我国中、新生代陆相已开发油藏特点，选择非均质性严重的注水开发河流相砂岩油藏作为研究对象，结合胜利油区主力油田孤东油田七区西馆陶组的实例，着重油藏地质精细研究，采用动静态相结合的方法，研究特高含水期剩余油分布的预测方法，准确确定剩余油的相对富集部位。分布规律及控制因素，为高含水后期油田调整开发方案。制定挖潜增产措施、控水稳油。提高采收率提供科学依据。该论文取得以下主要研究成果：1。以油藏地质精细研究为基础，形成了利用开发地质学、水淹层测井评价、生产动态分析、油藏数值模拟及油藏工程等多种方法对剩余油进行综合预测的方法和技术，其中流动单元约束下的测井评价和油藏数值模拟技术是综合预测剩余油分布的新的方法和技术。2。在纵向上从层间至层内，对储层开展多层次逐级细分研究，精细至流体流动单元，为细致地揭示平面上，垂向上层间及层内剩余油的不均一分布创造了条件。3。引人流体流动单元新概念，提出了非均质综合指数法和岩性单元流动分层指标法识别流体流动单元的新方法，通过流动单元的识别和划分，揭示了油藏非均质性，开展了从流动单元角度进行剩余油的预测方法与富集规律研究。4。在理论上阐明特高含水期河流相储层剩余油形成机理、分布规律和控制因素，提出特高含水期强非均质性河流相砂岩油藏，剩余油储量主要富集在主力相带边滩微相的新观点和新认识，改变了以往剩余油主要富集在非主力相带的观点和认识。5、研究得到的剩余油富集规律新观点和新认识，在实际应用中得到验证，取得了显著的经济效益和社会效益。

Sum-Rate and Power Scaling of Massive MIMO Systems with Channel Aging

This paper investigates the achievable sum-rate of massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems in the presence of channel aging. For the uplink, by assuming that the base station (BS) deploys maximum ratio combining (MRC) or zero-forcing (ZF) receivers, we present tight closed-form lower bounds on the achievable sum-rate for both receivers with aged channel state information (CSI). In addition, the benefit of implementing channel prediction methods on the sum-rate is examined, and closed-form sum rate lower bounds are derived. Moreover, the impact of channel aging and channel prediction on the power scaling law is characterized. Extension to the downlink scenario and multi-cell scenario are also considered. It is found that, for a system with/without channel prediction, the transmit power of each user can be scaled down at most by 1= p M (where M is the number of BS antennas), which indicates that aged CSI does not degrade the power scaling law, and channel prediction does not enhance the power scaling law; instead, these phenomena affect the achievable sum-rate by degrading or enhancing the effective signal to interference and noise ratio, respectively.