A case presenting diagnostic difficulties : making sense of flavivirus serology in the Top End of the Northern Territory

In early April 1998 the Centre for Disease Control (CDC) in Darwin was notified of a case with positive dengue serology. The illness appeared to have been acquired in the Northern Territory (NT). Because dengue is not endemic to the NT, locally acquired infection has significant public health implications, particularly for vector identification and control to limit the spread of infection. Dengue IgM serology was positive on two occasions but the illness was eventually presumptively identified as Kokobera infection. This case illustrates some important points about serology. The interpretation of flavivirus serology is complex and can be misleading, despite recent improvements. The best method of determining the cause of infection is still attempting to reconcile clinical illness details with incubation times and vector presence, as well as laboratory results. This approach ultimately justified the initial period of waiting for confirmatory results in this case, before the institution of public health measures necessary for a true case of dengue.

Usefulness of a self-reported history of chickenpox in adult women in the Top End

Early determination of immune status is essential for the prevention and/or amelioration of disease following exposure to chickenpox. This is of particular significance for pregnant women because of the additional risks to the foetus or newborn.1 To determine the usefulness of a self-reported history of chickenpox in adult women in the Top End, we compared it with serological evidence of immunity.

Epigenetics and migraine; complex mitochondrial interactions contributing to disease susceptibility

Migraine is a common neurological disorder classified by the World Health Organisation (WHO) as one of the top twenty most debilitating diseases in the developed world. Current therapies are only effective for a proportion of sufferers and new therapeutic targets are desperately needed to alleviate this burden. Recently the role of epigenetics in the development of many complex diseases including migraine has become an emerging topic. By understanding the importance of acetylation, methylation and other epigenetic modifications, it then follows that this modification process is a potential target to manipulate epigenetic status with the goal of treating disease. Bisulphite sequencing and methylated DNA immunoprecipitation have been used to demonstrate the presence of methylated cytosines in the human D-loop of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), proving that the mitochondrial genome is methylated. For the first time, it has been shown that there is a difference in mtDNA epigenetic status between healthy controls and those with disease, especially for neurodegenerative and age related conditions. Given co-morbidities with migraine and the suggestive link between mitochondrial dysfunction and the lowered threshold for triggering a migraine attack, mitochondrial methylation may be a new avenue to pursue. Creative thinking and new approaches are needed to solve complex problems and a systems biology approach, where multiple layers of information are integrated is becoming more important in complex disease modelling.

Initial burden of disease estimates for South Africa, 2000

BACKGROUND This paper describes the first national burden of disease study for South Africa. The main focus is the burden due to premature mortality, i.e. years of life lost (YLLs). In addition, estimates of the burden contributed by morbidity, i.e. the years lived with disability (YLDs), are obtained to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs); and the impact of AIDS on premature mortality in the year 2010 is assessed. METHOD Owing to the rapid mortality transition and the lack of timely data, a modelling approach has been adopted. The total mortality for the year 2000 is estimated using a demographic and AIDS model. The non-AIDS cause-of-death profile is estimated using three sources of data: Statistics South Africa, the National Department of Home Affairs, and the National Injury Mortality Surveillance System. A ratio method is used to estimate the YLDs from the YLL estimates. RESULTS The top single cause of mortality burden was HIV/AIDS followed by homicide, tuberculosis, road traffic accidents and diarrhoea. HIV/AIDS accounted for 38% of total YLLs, which is proportionately higher for females (47%) than for males (33%). Pre-transitional diseases, usually associated with poverty and underdevelopment, accounted for 25%, non-communicable diseases 21% and injuries 16% of YLLs. The DALY estimates highlight the fact that mortality alone underestimates the burden of disease, especially with regard to unintentional injuries, respiratory disease, and nervous system, mental and sense organ disorders. The impact of HIV/AIDS is expected to more than double the burden of premature mortality by the year 2010. CONCLUSION This study has drawn together data from a range of sources to develop coherent estimates of premature mortality by cause. South Africa is experiencing a quadruple burden of disease comprising the pre-transitional diseases, the emerging chronic diseases, injuries, and HIV/AIDS. Unless interventions that reduce morbidity and delay morbidity become widely available, the burden due to HIV/AIDS can be expected to grow very rapidly in the next few years. An improved base of information is needed to assess the morbidity impact more accurately.

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time. METHODS We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights. FINDINGS Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions. INTERPRETATION Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.

Global, regional, and national age–sex specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.

Using genome-Wwide complex trait analysis to quantify 'missing heritability' in Parkinson's disease

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have been successful at identifying single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) highly associated with common traits; however, a great deal of the heritable variation associated with common traits remains unaccounted for within the genome. Genome-wide complex trait analysis (GCTA) is a statistical method that applies a linear mixed model to estimate phenotypic variance of complex traits explained by genome-wide SNPs, including those not associated with the trait in a GWAS. We applied GCTA to 8 cohorts containing 7096 case and 19 455 control individuals of European ancestry in order to examine the missing heritability present in Parkinson's disease (PD). We meta-analyzed our initial results to produce robust heritability estimates for PD types across cohorts. Our results identify 27% (95% CI 17-38, P = 8.08E - 08) phenotypic variance associated with all types of PD, 15% (95% CI -0.2 to 33, P = 0.09) phenotypic variance associated with early-onset PD and 31% (95% CI 17-44, P = 1.34E - 05) phenotypic variance associated with late-onset PD. This is a substantial increase from the genetic variance identified by top GWAS hits alone (between 3 and 5%) and indicates there are substantially more risk loci to be identified. Our results suggest that although GWASs are a useful tool in identifying the most common variants associated with complex disease, a great deal of common variants of small effect remain to be discovered. © Published by Oxford University Press 2012.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refi nements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2∙4 billion and 1∙6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537∙6 million in 1990 to 764∙8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114∙87 per 1000 people to 110∙31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world’s population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to nonfatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.

In vitro Induction of Banana Autotetraploids by Colchicine Treatment of Micropropagated Diploids

Alternative breeding strategies, based on colchicine-induced autotetraploids, have been proposed as a means of introducing disease resistance into banana breeding programs. This paper describes techniques for the in vitro induction of banana autotetraploids by the use of colchicine on cultured explants. The technique can be readily applied and large numbers of autotetraploids produced. The optimum treatment involved immersing shoot tips in a 0.5% w/v colchicine solution for 2 h under aseptic conditions. Dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) was applied with the colchicine treatments to increase cell permeability and so absorption of colchicine, resulting in the optimum treatment unchanged at 0.5% colchicine, but including the addition of 2% v/v DMSO. Of the shoot tips treated over 30% were induced to the autotetraploid level. Methods for in vitro selection of induced tetraploids from treated diploid plantlets were also developed. Tetraploid plants were more robust with thicker pseudostems, roots and broader leaves than diploids and they could be selected on these morphological characteristics. Mean stornatal lengths of diploid banana plants growing in vitro were significantly smaller (16.0 pm) than the tetraploids (26.9pm) and were used as a more reliable indicator of ploidy than morphological criteria alone. A root tip squash technique using carbol fuchsin was developed for positive confirmation of ploidy change by chromosome counts. Although chimerism and reversion to the diploid form occurred, it was not considered a problem because of the large number of autotetraploids induced. Stable autotetraploids were recovered and established in the field and were characterised by their large, drooping leaves and thick pseudostems. They have retained these characteristics for more than 3 years in the field.

Carotenoid content and flesh color of selected banana cultivars growing in Australia.

Background: The problems of vitamin A deficiency and chronic diseases have emerged in recent years in some countries in the Micronesian region. These problems are associated with the dietary shift towards imported processed foods and lifestyle changes. Research in the Federated States of Micronesia indicates that yellow- and orange-fleshed banana cultivars contain significant levels of provitamin A carotenoids. Objective: To identify further banana cultivars that may be promoted to alleviate vitamin A deficiency among children and women and chronic disease problems among adults. Methods: Ripe fruit of banana cultivars growing in Australia (sourced mostly from a field research collection) were assessed for carotenoid content and flesh color. Ten cultivars with yellow or yellow/orange flesh color (including common cultivars of Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands) were selected and compared with two cream-fleshed cultivars, including Williams, of the Cavendish group, the most commonly marketed banana worldwide. Carotenoid content was analyzed by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Flesh color was analyzed by HunterLab colorimetry. Results: The yellow/orange-fleshed Asupina (a Fe'i banana) contained the highest level (1,412 μg/100 g) of trans β-carotene, the most important provitamin A carotenoid, a level more than 20 times higher than that of Williams. All 10 yellow or yellow/orange-fleshed cultivars (Asupina, Kirkirnan, Pisang Raja, Horn Plantain, Pacific Plantain, Kluai Khai Bonng, Wain, Red Dacca, Lakatan, and Sucrier) had significant carotenoid levels, potentially meeting half or all of the estimated vitamin A requirements for a nonpregnant, nonlactating adult woman within normal consumption patterns. All were acceptable for taste and other attributes. The cream-fleshed cultivars had minimal carotenoid levels. There was a positive significant correlation between carotenoid content and deeper yellow/orange coloration indicators. Conclusions: These yellow- or yellow/orange-fleshed carotenoid-rich banana cultivars should be considered for promotion in order to alleviate vitamin A deficiency and chronic disease in susceptible target communities and to provide variety and enjoyment as exotic fruits in both developing and industrialized countries.

Black Sigatoka disease: new technologies to strengthen eradication strategies in Australia

In 2001, an incursion of Mycosphaerella fijiensis, the causal agent of black Sigatoka, was detected in Australia's largest commercial banana growing region, the Tully Banana Production Area in North Queensland. An intensive surveillance and eradication campaign was undertaken which resulted in the reinstatement of the disease-free status for black Sigatoka in 2005. This was the first time black Sigatoka had ever been eradicated from commercial plantations. The success of the eradication campaign was testament to good working relationships between scientists, growers, crop monitors, quarantine regulatory bodies and industry. A key contributing factor to the success was the deployment of a PCR-based molecular diagnostic assay, developed by the Cooperative Research Centre for Tropical Plant Protection (CRCTPP). This assay complemented morphological identification and allowed high throughput diagnosis of samples facilitating rapid decision-making during the eradication campaign. This paper describes the development and successful deployment of molecular diagnostics for black Sigatoka. Shortcomings in the gel-based assay are discussed and the advantages of highly specific real-time PCR assays, capable of differentiating between Mycosphaerella fijiensis, Mycosphaerella musicola and Mycosphaerella eumusae are outlined. Real-time assays may provide a powerful diagnostic tool for applications in surveillance, disease forecasting and resistance testing for Sigatoka leaf spot diseases.

Cucumber mosaic virus infection of kava (Piper methysticum) and implications for cultural control of kava dieback disease

Cucumber mosaic virus (CMV) was found by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) to be not fully systemic in naturally infected kava (Piper methysticum) plants in Fiji. Twenty-six of 48 samples (54%) from various tissues of three recently infected plants were CMV-positive compared with 7/51 samples (14%) from three long-term infections (plants affected by dieback for more than 1 year). The virus was also found to have a limited ability to move into newly formed stems. CMV was detected in only 2/23 samples taken from re-growth stems arising from known CMV infected/dieback affected plants. Mechanical inoculation experiments conducted in Fiji indicate that the known kava intercrop plants banana (Musa spp.), pineapple (Ananas comosus), peanut (Arachis hypogaea) and the common weed Mikania micrantha are potential hosts for a dieback-causing strain of CMV It was not possible to transmit the virus mechanically to the common kava intercrop plants taro (Colocasia esculenta), Xanthosoma sp., sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas), yam (Dioscorea alata), papaya (Carica papaya) or the weed Momordica charantia. Implications of the results of this research on a possible integrated disease management strategy are discussed.

Genetic burden associated with varying degrees of disease severity in endometriosis

Endometriosis is primarily characterized by the presence of tissue resembling endometrium outside the uterine cavity and is usually diagnosed by laparoscopy. The most commonly used classification of disease, the revised American Fertility Society (rAFS) system to grade endometriosis into different stages based on disease severity (I to IV), has been questioned as it does not correlate well with underlying symptoms, posing issues in diagnosis and choice of treatment. Using two independent European genome-wide association (GWA) datasets and top-level classification of the endometriosis cases based on rAFS [minimal or mild (Stage A) and moderate-to-severe (Stage B) disease], we previously showed that Stage B endometriosis has greater contribution of common genetic variation to its aetiology than Stage A disease. Herein, we extend our previous analysis to four endometriosis stages [minimal (Stage I), mild (Stage II), moderate (Stage III) and severe (Stage IV) disease] based on the rAFS classification system and compared the genetic burden across stages. Our results indicate that genetic burden increases from minimal to severe endometriosis. For the minimal disease, genetic factors may contribute to a lesser extent than other disease categories. Mild and moderate endometriosis appeared genetically similar, making it difficult to tease them apart. Consistent with our previous reports, moderate and severe endometriosis showed greater genetic burden than minimal or mild disease. Overall, our results provide new insights into the genetic architecture of endometriosis and further investigation in larger samples may help to understand better the aetiology of varying degrees of endometriosis, enabling improved diagnostic and treatment modalities.

Integrated disease management of stem end rot of mango in the Southern Philippines

This research aimed to develop and evaluate pre- and postharvest management strategies to reduce stem end rot (SER) incidence and extend saleable life of 'Carabao' mango fruits in Southern Philippines. Preharvest management focused on the development and improvement of fungicide spray program, while postharvest management aimed to develop alternative interventions aside from hot water treatment (HWT). Field evaluation of systemic fungicides, namely azoxystrobin ( Amistar 25SC), tebuconazole ( Folicur 25WP), carbendazim ( Goldazim 500SC), difenoconazole ( Score 250SC) and azoxystrobin+difenoconazole ( Amistar Top), reduced blossom blight severity and improved fruit setting and retention, resulting in higher fruit yield but failed to sufficiently suppress SER incidence. Based on these findings, an improved fungicide spray program was developed taking into account the infection process of SER pathogens and fungicide resistance. Timely application of protectant (mancozeb) and systemic fungicides (azoxystrobin, carbendazim and difenoconazole) during the most critical stages of mango flower and fruit development ensured higher harvestable fruit yield and minimally lowered SER incidence. Control of SER was also achieved by employing postharvest treatment such as HWT (52-55°C for 10 min), which significantly prolonged the saleable life of mango fruits. However, extended hot water treatment (EHWT; 46°C pulp temperature for 15 min), rapid heat treatment (RHT; 59°C for 30-60 sec), fungicide dip and promising biological control agents failed to satisfactorily reduce SER and prolong saleable life. In contrast, the integration of the improved spray program as preharvest management practice, and postharvest treatments such as HWT and fungicide dips (azoxystrobin, 150-175 ppm; carbendazim, 312.5 ppm; and tebuconazole, 125-156 ppm), significantly reduced disease and extended marketable life for utmost 8 days.

Sympatric prey responses to lethal top-predator control: predator manipulation experiments

Introduction Many prey species around the world are suffering declines due to a variety of interacting causes such as land use change, climate change, invasive species and novel disease. Recent studies on the ecological roles of top-predators have suggested that lethal top-predator control by humans (typically undertaken to protect livestock or managed game from predation) is an indirect additional cause of prey declines through trophic cascade effects. Such studies have prompted calls to prohibit lethal top-predator control with the expectation that doing so will result in widespread benefits for biodiversity at all trophic levels. However, applied experiments investigating in situ responses of prey populations to contemporary top-predator management practices are few and none have previously been conducted on the eclectic suite of native and exotic mammalian, reptilian, avian and amphibian predator and prey taxa we simultaneously assess. We conducted a series of landscape-scale, multi-year, manipulative experiments at nine sites spanning five ecosystem types across the Australian continental rangelands to investigate the responses of sympatric prey populations to contemporary poison-baiting programs intended to control top-predators (dingoes) for livestock protection. Results Prey populations were almost always in similar or greater abundances in baited areas. Short-term prey responses to baiting were seldom apparent. Longer-term prey population trends fluctuated independently of baiting for every prey species at all sites, and divergence or convergence of prey population trends occurred rarely. Top-predator population trends fluctuated independently of baiting in all cases, and never did diverge or converge. Mesopredator population trends likewise fluctuated independently of baiting in almost all cases, but did diverge or converge in a few instances. Conclusions These results demonstrate that Australian populations of prey fauna at lower trophic levels are typically unaffected by top-predator control because top-predator populations are not substantially affected by contemporary control practices, thus averting a trophic cascade. We conclude that alteration of current top-predator management practices is probably unnecessary for enhancing fauna recovery in the Australian rangelands. More generally, our results suggest that theoretical and observational studies advancing the idea that lethal control of top-predators induces trophic cascades may not be as universal as previously supposed.