Comment la crainte de sous-protection engendrera la catastrophe de la surprotection:examen constitutionnel du Digital Millenium Copyright Act

Chaque apparition d’une nouvelle technologie remet inévitablement en cause le cadre législatif établi pour protéger les droits de propriété. Cependant, avec la numérisation de l’information et l’avènement d’Internet, il est de plus en plus facile de reproduire et de distribuer librement des œuvres protégées. Toutefois, depuis le 20 décembre 1996, l’Organisation Mondiale de la Propriété Intellectuelle (OMPI) a adopté deux traités ayant pour objectif principal d’adapter le cadre juridique du droit d’auteur aux nouvelles technologies. C’est pour se conformer à ces traités que l’administration Clinton a adopté le Digital Millenium Copyright Act (DMCA) en 1998. Cet article examine d’abord les dimensions constitutionnelle du Copyright américain, et plus spécifiquement certaines limites qui viennent tempérer les prérogatives exclusives des titulaires de droits, notamment le domaine public et les usages équitables possibles d’ une œuvre. Sont ensuite examinés le DMCA et sa conformité aux principes énoncés à la clause constitutionnelle, source du pouvoir législatif du Congrès américain en matière de Copyright. De plus, comme le DMCA interdit non seulement le contournement de technologies protégeant une œuvre en format numérique, mais également la fabrication et la diffusion de technologies permettant d’arriver à cette fin, cet article analyse les répercussions de cette loi sur la liberté d’expression.

On the environmental valuation of catastrophe: revisiting mining disasters in the United Kingdom, 1851-1962

In the context of environmental valuation of natural disasters, an important component of the evaluation procedure lies in determining the periodicity of events. This paper explores alternative methodologies for determining such periodicity, illustrating the advantages and the disadvantages of the separate methods and their comparative predictions. The procedures employ Bayesian inference and explore recent advances in computational aspects of mixtures methodology. The procedures are applied to the classic data set of Maguire et al (Biometrika, 1952) which was subsequently updated by Jarrett (Biometrika, 1979) and which comprise the seminal investigations examining the periodicity of mining disasters within the United Kingdom, 1851-1962.

The impact of uncertain precipitation data on insurance loss estimates using a flood catastrophe model

Catastrophe risk models used by the insurance industry are likely subject to significant uncertainty, but due to their proprietary nature and strict licensing conditions they are not available for experimentation. In addition, even if such experiments were conducted, these would not be repeatable by other researchers because commercial confidentiality issues prevent the details of proprietary catastrophe model structures from being described in public domain documents. However, such experimentation is urgently required to improve decision making in both insurance and reinsurance markets. In this paper we therefore construct our own catastrophe risk model for flooding in Dublin, Ireland, in order to assess the impact of typical precipitation data uncertainty on loss predictions. As we consider only a city region rather than a whole territory and have access to detailed data and computing resources typically unavailable to industry modellers, our model is significantly more detailed than most commercial products. The model consists of four components, a stochastic rainfall module, a hydrological and hydraulic flood hazard module, a vulnerability module, and a financial loss module. Using these we undertake a series of simulations to test the impact of driving the stochastic event generator with four different rainfall data sets: ground gauge data, gauge-corrected rainfall radar, meteorological reanalysis data (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis-Interim; ERA-Interim) and a satellite rainfall product (The Climate Prediction Center morphing method; CMORPH). Catastrophe models are unusual because they use the upper three components of the modelling chain to generate a large synthetic database of unobserved and severe loss-driving events for which estimated losses are calculated. We find the loss estimates to be more sensitive to uncertainties propagated from the driving precipitation data sets than to other uncertainties in the hazard and vulnerability modules, suggesting that the range of uncertainty within catastrophe model structures may be greater than commonly believed.

End-Permian catastrophe by a bolide impact: evidence of a gigantic release of sulfur from the mantle

Our studies in southern China have revealed a remarkable sulfur and strontium isotope excursion at the end of the Permian, along with a coincident concentration of impact- metamorphosed grains and kaolinite and a significant decrease in manganese, phosphorous, calcium, and microfossils (foraminifera). These data suggest that an asteroid or a comet hit the ocean at the end of Permian time and caused a rapid and massive release of sulfur from the mantle to the ocean-atmosphere system, leading to significant oxygen consumption, acid rain, and the most severe biotic crisis in the history of life on Earth.