Risk factors for schizophrenia. Follow-up data from the Northern Finland 1966 Birth Cohort Study

This paper updates single risk factors identified by the Northern Finland 1966 Birth Cohort Study up to the end of year 2001 or age 34. Impaired performance (e.g., delayed motor or intellectual development) or adverse exposures (e.g., pregnancy and birth complications, central nervous system diseases) are associated with an increased risk for schizophrenia. However, upper social class girls and clever schoolboys also have an increased risk to develop schizophrenia, contrasted to their peers. Individuals who subsequently develop schizophrenia follow a developmental trajectory that partly and subtly differs from that of the general population; this trajectory lacks flexibility and responsiveness compared to control subjects, at least in the early stages. We propose a descriptive, lifespan, multilevel systems model on the development and course of schizophrenia.

Season of birth is associated with anthropometric and neurocognitive outcomes during infancy and childhood in a general population birth cohort

The 'season of birth' effect is one of the most consistently replicated associations in schizophrenia epidemiology. In contrast, the association between season of birth and development in the general Population is relatively poorly understood. The aim of this study was to explore the impact of season of birth on various anthropometric and neurocognitive variables from birth to age seven in a large, community-based birth cohort. A sample of white singleton infants born after 37 weeks gestation (n =22,123) was drawn from the US Collaborative Perinatal Project. Anthropometric variables (weight, head circumference, length/height) and various measures of neurocognitive development, were assessed at birth, 8 months, 4 and 7 years of age. Compared to surnmer/autumn born infants, winter/spring born infants were significantly longer at birth, and at age seven were significantly heavier, taller and had larger head circumference. Winter/spring born infants were achieving significantly higher scores on the Bayley Motor Score at 8 months, the Graham-Ernhart Block Test at age 4, the Wechsler Intelligence Performance and Full Scale scores at age 7, but had significantly lower scores on the Bender-Gestalt Test at age 7 years. Winter/spring birth, while associated with an increased risk of schizophrenia, is generally associated with superior outcomes with respect to physical and cognitive development. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of birth cohort on age of onset cluster analysis in bipolar I disorder

PURPOSE: Two common approaches to identify subgroups of patients with bipolar disorder are clustering methodology (mixture analysis) based on the age of onset, and a birth cohort analysis. This study investigates if a birth cohort effect will influence the results of clustering on the age of onset, using a large, international database. METHODS: The database includes 4037 patients with a diagnosis of bipolar I disorder, previously collected at 36 collection sites in 23 countries. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) were used to adjust the data for country median age, and in some models, birth cohort. Model-based clustering (mixture analysis) was then performed on the age of onset data using the residuals. Clinical variables in subgroups were compared. RESULTS: There was a strong birth cohort effect. Without adjusting for the birth cohort, three subgroups were found by clustering. After adjusting for the birth cohort or when considering only those born after 1959, two subgroups were found. With results of either two or three subgroups, the youngest subgroup was more likely to have a family history of mood disorders and a first episode with depressed polarity. However, without adjusting for birth cohort (three subgroups), family history and polarity of the first episode could not be distinguished between the middle and oldest subgroups. CONCLUSION: These results using international data confirm prior findings using single country data, that there are subgroups of bipolar I disorder based on the age of onset, and that there is a birth cohort effect. Including the birth cohort adjustment altered the number and characteristics of subgroups detected when clustering by age of onset. Further investigation is needed to determine if combining both approaches will identify subgroups that are more useful for research.

Young maternal age at first birth and mental health later in life: does the association vary by birth cohort?

BACKGROUND: It is well established that maternal age at childbirth has implications for women's mental health in the short term, however there has been little research regarding longer term implications and whether this association has changed over time. We investigated longer term mental health consequences for young mothers in Australia and contrasted the effects between three birth cohorts. METHODS: Using thirteen waves of data from 4262 women aged 40 years or above participating in the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey, we compared the mental health of women who had their first child aged 15-19 years, 20-24 years, and 25 years and older. Mental health was measured using the mental health component summary score of the SF-36. We used random-effects linear regression models to generate estimates of the association between age at first birth and mental health, adjusted for early life socioeconomic characteristics (country of birth, parents' employment status and occupation) and later life socioeconomic characteristics (education, employment, income, housing tenure, relationship status and social support). We examined whether the association changed over time, testing for effect modification across three successive birth cohorts. RESULTS: In models adjusted for early life and later life socioeconomic characteristics, there was strong evidence of an association between teenage births and poor mental health, with mental health scores on average 2.76 to 3.96 points lower for mothers aged younger than 20 years than for mothers aged 25 years and older (Late Baby Boom (born 1936-1945): -3.96, 95% CI -5.38, -2.54; Early Baby Boom (born 1946-1955): -3.01, 95% CI -4.32, -1.69; Lucky Few (born 1956-1965): -2.76, 95% CI -4.34, -1.18), and evidence of an association for mothers aged 20-24 years compared to mothers aged 25 years and older in the most recent birth cohort only (-1.09, 95% CI -2.01, -0.17). There was some indication (though weak) that the association increased in more recent cohorts. CONCLUSION: This study highlights that young mothers, and particularly teenage mothers, are a vulnerable group at high risk of poor mental health outcomes compared to mothers aged 25 years and above, and there was some suggestion (though weak) that the health disparities increased over time.

Balance ability in 7- and 10-year-old children:associations with prenatal lead and cadmium exposure and with blood lead levels in childhood in a prospective birth cohort study

OBJECTIVES: Most studies reporting evidence of adverse effects of lead and cadmium on the ability to balance have been conducted in high-exposure groups or have included adults. The effects of prenatal exposure have not been well studied, nor have the effects in children been directly studied. The aim of the study was to identify the associations of lead (in utero and in childhood) and cadmium (in utero) exposure with the ability to balance in children aged 7 and 10 years. DESIGN: Prospective birth cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: Maternal blood lead (n=4285) and cadmium (n=4286) levels were measured by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry in women enrolled in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) during pregnancy. Child lead levels were measured in a subsample of 582 of ALSPAC children at age 30 months. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Children completed a heel-to-toe walking test at 7 years. At 10 years, the children underwent clinical tests of static and dynamic balance. Statistical analysis using SPSS V.19 included logistic regression modelling, comparing categories of ≥ 5 vs <5 µg/dL for lead, and ≥ 1 vs <1 µg/L for cadmium. RESULTS: Balance at age 7 years was not associated with elevated in utero lead or cadmium exposure (adjusted OR for balance dysfunction: Pb 1.01 (95% CI 0.95 to 1.01), n=1732; Cd 0.95 (0.77 to 1.20), n=1734), or with elevated child blood lead level at age 30 months (adjusted OR 0.98 (0.92 to 1.05), n=354). Similarly, neither measures of static nor dynamic balance at age 10 years were associated with in utero lead or cadmium exposure, or child lead level. CONCLUSIONS: These findings do not provide any evidence of an association of prenatal exposure to lead or cadmium, or lead levels in childhood, on balance ability in children. Confirmation in other cohorts is needed.

Association of SNPs in LCP1 and CTIF with hearing in 11 year old children:findings from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) birth cohort and the G-EAR consortium

BACKGROUND: The genetic basis of hearing loss in humans is relatively poorly understood. In recent years, experimental approaches including laboratory studies of early onset hearing loss in inbred mouse strains, or proteomic analyses of hair cells or hair bundles, have suggested new candidate molecules involved in hearing function. However, the relevance of these genes/gene products to hearing function in humans remains unknown. We investigated whether single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the human orthologues of genes of interest arising from the above-mentioned studies correlate with hearing function in children. METHODS: 577 SNPs from 13 genes were each analysed by linear regression against averaged high (3, 4 and 8 kHz) or low frequency (0.5, 1 and 2 kHz) audiometry data from 4970 children in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) birth-cohort at age eleven years. Genes found to contain SNPs with low p-values were then investigated in 3417 adults in the G-EAR study of hearing. RESULTS: Genotypic data were available in ALSPAC for a total of 577 SNPs from 13 genes of interest. Two SNPs approached sample-wide significance (pre-specified at p = 0.00014): rs12959910 in CBP80/20-dependent translation initiation factor (CTIF) for averaged high frequency hearing (p = 0.00079, β = 0.61 dB per minor allele); and rs10492452 in L-plastin (LCP1) for averaged low frequency hearing (p = 0.00056, β = 0.45 dB). For low frequencies, rs9567638 in LCP1 also enhanced hearing in females (p = 0.0011, β = -1.76 dB; males p = 0.23, β = 0.61 dB, likelihood-ratio test p = 0.006). SNPs in LCP1 and CTIF were then examined against low and high frequency hearing data for adults in G-EAR. Although the ALSPAC results were not replicated, a SNP in LCP1, rs17601960, is in strong LD with rs9967638, and was associated with enhanced low frequency hearing in adult females in G-EAR (p = 0.00084). CONCLUSIONS: There was evidence to suggest that multiple SNPs in CTIF may contribute a small detrimental effect to hearing, and that a sex-specific locus in LCP1 is protective of hearing. No individual SNPs reached sample-wide significance in both ALSPAC and G-EAR. This is the first report of a possible association between LCP1 and hearing function.

Prenatal alcohol exposure and childhood balance ability:findings from a UK birth cohort study

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association of prenatal alcohol exposure with balance in10-year-old children. DESIGN: Population-based prospective longitudinal study. SETTING: Former Avon region of UK (Southwest England). PARTICIPANTS: 6915 children from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children who had a balance assessment at age 10 and had data on maternal alcohol consumption. OUTCOME MEASURES: 3 composite balance scores: dynamic balance (beam-walking), static balance eyes open, static balance eyes closed (heel-to-toe balance on a beam and standing on one leg, eyes open or closed). RESULTS: Most mothers (95.5%) consumed no-to-moderate amounts (3-7 glasses/week) of alcohol during pregnancy. Higher total-alcohol consumption was associated with maternal-social advantage, whereas binge drinking (≥4 units/day) and abstinence were associated with maternal social disadvantage. No evidence was found of an adverse effect of maternal-alcohol consumption on childhood balance. Higher maternal-alcohol use during pregnancy was generally associated with better offspring outcomes, with some specific effects appearing strong (static balance eyes open and moderate total alcohol exposure at 18 weeks, adjusted OR 1.23 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.49); static balance eyes closed and moderate total alcohol exposure at 18 weeks, adjusted OR 1.25 (95% CI 1.06 to 1.48). Similar results were found for both paternal and postnatal maternal alcohol exposure. A Mendelian-randomization approach was used to estimate the association between maternal genotype and offspring balance using the non-synonymous variant rs1229984*A (ADH1B) to proxy for lower maternal alcohol consumption; no strong associations were found between this genotype/proxy and offspring balance. CONCLUSIONS: No evidence was found to indicate that moderate maternal alcohol consumption in this population sample had an adverse effect on offspring balance at age 10. An apparent beneficial effect of higher total maternal alcohol consumption on offspring balance appeared likely to reflect residual confounding.

Balance ability of 7 and 10 year old children in the population:results from a large UK birth cohort study

OBJECTIVE: The literature contains many reports of balance function in children, but these are often on atypical samples taken from hospital-based clinics and may not be generalisable to the population as a whole. The purpose of the present study is to describe balance test results from a large UK-based birth cohort study. METHODS: Data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) were analysed. A total of 5402 children completed the heel-to-toe walking test at age 7 years. At age 10 years, 6915 children underwent clinical tests of balance including beam-walking, standing heel-to-toe on a beam and standing on one leg. A proportion of the children returned to the clinic for retesting within 3 months allowing test-retest agreement to be measured. RESULTS: Frequency distributions for each of the balance tests are given. Correlations between measures of dynamic balance at ages 7 and 10 years were weak. The static balance of 10 year old children was found to be poorer with eyes closed than with eyes open, and poorer in boys than in girls for all measures. Balance on one leg was poorer than heel-to-toe balance on a beam. A significant learning effect was found when first and second attempts of the tests were compared. Measures of static and dynamic balance appeared independent. Consistent with previous reports in the literature, test-retest reliability was found to be low. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides information about the balance ability of children aged 7 and 10 years and provides clinicians with reference data for balance tests commonly used in the paediatric clinic.

Infant adiposity at birth and early postnatal weight gain predict increased aortic intima-media thickness at 6 weeks of age: a population-derived cohort study

Infant body composition and postnatal weight gain have been implicated in the development of adult obesity and cardiovascular disease, but there are limited prospective data regarding the association between infant adiposity, postnatal growth and early cardiovascular parameters. Increased aortic intima-media thickness (aortic IMT) is an intermediate phenotype of early atherosclerosis. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between weight and adiposity at birth, postnatal growth and aortic IMT. The Barwon Infant Study (n=1074 mother-infant pairs) is a population-derived birth cohort. Infant weight and other anthropometry were measured at birth and 6 weeks of age. Aortic IMT was measured by trans-abdominal ultrasound at 6 weeks of age (n=835). After adjustment for aortic size and other factors, markers of adiposity including increased birth weight (β=19.9 μm/kg, 95%CI 11.1, 28.6; P<0.001) and birth skinfold thickness (β=6.9 μm/mm, 95%CI 3.3, 10.5; P<0.001) were associated with aortic IMT at 6 weeks. The association between birth skinfold thickness and aortic IMT was independent of birth weight. In addition, greater postnatal weight gain was associated with increased aortic IMT, independent of birth weight and age at time of scan (β=11.3 μm/kg increase, 95%CI 2.2, 20.3; P=0.01). Increased infant weight and adiposity at birth, as well as increased early weight gain, were positively associated with aortic IMT. Excessive accumulation of adiposity during gestation and early infancy may have adverse effects on cardiovascular risk.

Methodological challenges when estimating the effects of season and seasonal exposures on birth outcomes

Background Many previous studies have found seasonal patterns in birth outcomes, but with little agreement about which season poses the highest risk. Some of the heterogeneity between studies may be explained by a previously unknown bias. The bias occurs in retrospective cohorts which include all births occurring within a fixed start and end date, which means shorter pregnancies are missed at the start of the study, and longer pregnancies are missed at the end. Our objective was to show the potential size of this bias and how to avoid it. Methods To demonstrate the bias we simulated a retrospective birth cohort with no seasonal pattern in gestation and used a range of cohort end dates. As a real example, we used a cohort of 114,063 singleton births in Brisbane between 1 July 2005 and 30 June 2009 and examined the bias when estimating changes in gestation length associated with season (using month of conception) and a seasonal exposure (temperature). We used survival analyses with temperature as a time-dependent variable. Results We found strong artificial seasonal patterns in gestation length by month of conception, which depended on the end date of the study. The bias was avoided when the day and month of the start date was just before the day and month of the end date (regardless of year), so that the longer gestations at the start of the study were balanced by the shorter gestations at the end. After removing the fixed cohort bias there was a noticeable change in the effect of temperature on gestation length. The adjusted hazard ratios were flatter at the extremes of temperature but steeper between 15 and 25°C. Conclusions Studies using retrospective birth cohorts should account for the fixed cohort bias by removing selected births to get unbiased estimates of seasonal health effects.

Adolescent peer aggression and its association with mental health and substance use in an Australian cohort

Prospective longitudinal birth cohort data was used to examine the association between peer aggression at 14 years and mental health and substance use at 17 years. A sample of 1590 participants from the Western Australian Pregnancy Cohort (Raine) study were divided into mutually exclusive categories (victims, perpetrators, victim-perpetrators and uninvolved). Involvement in any type of peer aggression as a victim (10.1%), perpetrator (21.4%), or a victim-perpetrator (8.7%) was reported by 40.2% of participants. After adjusting for confounding factors, those who were a victim of peer aggression had increased odds of later depression and internalising symptoms whilst perpetrators of peer aggression were found to be at increased risk of depression and harmful alcohol use. Victim-perpetrators of peer aggression were more likely to have externalising behaviours at 17 years. These results show an independent temporal relationship between peer aggression and later mental health and substance use problems in adolescence.

Impact of adolescent peer aggression on later educational and employment outcomes in an Australian cohort

This study used prospective birth cohort data to analyse the relationship between peer aggression at 14 years of age and educational and employment outcomes at 17 years (N = 1091) and 20 years (N = 1003). Participants from the Western Australian Pregnancy Cohort (Raine) study were divided into mutually exclusive categories of peer aggression. Involvement in peer aggression was reported by 40.2% (10.1% victims; 21.4% perpetrators; 8.7% victim–perpetrators) of participants. Participants involved in any form of peer aggression were less likely to complete secondary school. Perpetrators and victim–perpetrators of peer aggression were more likely to be in the ‘No Education, Employment or Training’ group at 20 years of age. This association was explained by non-completion of secondary school. These findings demonstrate a robust association between involvement in peer aggression and non-completion of secondary school, which in turn was associated with an increased risk of poor educational and employment outcomes in early adulthood.

Caesarean section and subsequent pregnancy outcome: a Danish register-based cohort study

Background and Aims: Caesarean section rates have increased in recent decades and the effects on subsequent pregnancy outcome are largely unknown. Prior research has hypothesised that Caesarean section delivery may lead to an increased risk of subsequent stillbirth, miscarriage, ectopic pregnancy and sub-fertility. Structure and Methods: Papers 1-3 are systematic reviews with meta-analyses. Papers 4-6 are findings from this thesis on the rate of subsequent stillbirth, miscarriage, ectopic pregnancy and live birth by mode of delivery. Results Systematic reviews and meta-analyses: A 23% increased odds of subsequent stillbirth; no increase in odds of subsequent ectopic pregnancy and a 10% reduction in the odds of subsequent live birth among women with a previous Caesarean section were found in the various meta-analyses. Danish cohorts: Results from the Danish Civil Registration System (CRS) cohort revealed a small increased rate of subsequent stillbirth and ectopic pregnancy among women with a primary Caesarean section, which remained in the analyses by type of Caesarean. No increased rate of miscarriage was found among women with a primary Caesarean section. In the CRS data, women with a primary Caesarean section had a significantly reduced rate of subsequent live birth particularly among women with primary elective and maternal-requested Caesarean sections. In the Aarhus Birth Cohort, overall the effect of mode of delivery on the rate and time to next live birth was minimal. Conclusions: Primary Caesarean section was associated with a small increased rate of stillbirth and ectopic pregnancy, which may be in part due to underlying medical conditions. No increased rate of miscarriage was found. A reduced rate of subsequent live birth was found among Caesarean section in the CRS data. In the smaller ABC cohort, a small reduction in rate of subsequent live birth was found among women with a primary Caesarean section and is most likely due to maternal choice rather than any ill effects of the Caesarean. The findings of this study, the largest and most comprehensive to date will be of significant interest to health care providers and women globally.

Evaluation of the cumulative evidence for freedom from BSE in birth cohorts

Substantial resources are used for surveillance of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) despite an extremely low detection rate, especially in healthy slaughtered cattle. We have developed a method based on the geometric waiting time distribution to establish and update the statistical evidence for BSE-freedom for defined birth cohorts using continued surveillance data. The results suggest that currently (data included till September 2004) a birth cohort of Danish cattle born after March 1999 is free from BSE with probability (power) of 0.8746 or 0.8509, depending on the choice of a model for the diagnostic sensitivity. These results apply to an assumed design prevalence of 1 in 10,000 and account for prevalence heterogeneity. The age-dependent, diagnostic sensitivity for the detection of BSE has been identified as major determinant of the power. The incorporation of heterogeneity was deemed adequate on scientific grounds and led to improved power values. We propose our model as a decision tool for possible future modification of the BSE surveillance and discuss public health and international trade implications.