Dynamique d’une population faunique en expansion sous différents scénarios climatiques : le dindon sauvage (Meleagris gallopavo)

Les changements climatiques récents ont mené à l’expansion de la répartition de plusieurs espèces méridionales, mais ont aussi causé l’extinction locale d’espèces se retrouvant à la limite de leur tolérance environnementale. Ces populations en expansion peuvent favoriser différentes stratégies d’histoire de vie en répondant à différents facteurs limitants. Dans cette thèse, je vise à déterminer et quantifier l’effet du climat et des évènements extrêmes sur le cycle de vie complet d’une espèce en expansion (le dindon sauvage) pour comprendre les changements au niveau populationnel ainsi que les mécanismes impliqués dans l’expansion de la distribution d’une espèce. J’ai défini les évènements extrêmes de pluie, d’épaisseur de neige au sol et de température, comme un évènement dont la fréquence est plus rare que le 10e et 90e percentile. En utilisant l’approche « Measure-Understand-Predict » (MUP), j’ai tout d’abord suivi trois populations le long d’un gradient latitudinal de sévérité hivernale pour mesurer l’effet de variables météorologiques sur la dynamique des populations. La survie des dindons sauvages diminuait drastiquement lorsque l’accumulation de neige au sol dépassait 30 cm pour une période de 10 jours et diminuait également avec la température. Au printemps, la persistance de la neige affectait négativement le taux d’initiation de la nidification et l’augmentation de la pluie diminuait la survie des nids. Dans une deuxième étape, j’ai examiné l’impact des évènements climatiques extrêmes et des processus démographiques impliqués dans l’expansion du dindon, liés à la théorie des histoires de vie pour comprendre la relation entre la dynamique de ces populations en expansions avec le climat. J’ai démontré que la fréquence des évènements extrêmes hivernaux et, d’une façon moins importante, les évènements extrêmes estivaux limitaient l’expansion nordique des dindons sauvages. J’ai appuyé, à l’aide de données empiriques et de modélisation, les hypothèses de la théorie classique des invasions biologiques en montrant que les populations en établissement priorisaient les paramètres reproducteurs tandis que la survie adulte était le paramètre démographique affectant le plus la dynamique des populations bien établies. De plus, les populations les plus au nord étaient composées d’individus plus jeunes ayant une espérance de vie plus faible, mais avaient un potentiel d’accroissement plus élevé que les populations établies, comme le suggère cette théorie. Finalement, j’ai projeté l’impact de la récolte sur la dynamique des populations de même que le taux de croissance de cette espèce en utilisant les conditions climatiques futures projetées par les modèles de l’IPCC. Les populations en établissement avaient un taux de récolte potentiel plus élevé, mais la proportion de mâles adultes, possédant des caractéristiques recherchées par les chasseurs, diminuait plus rapidement que dans les populations établies. Dans le futur, la fréquence des évènements extrêmes de pluie devrait augmenter tandis que la fréquence des évènements extrêmes de température hivernale et d’accumulation de neige au sol devraient diminuer après 2060, limitant probablement l’expansion nordique du dindon sauvage jusqu’en 2100. Cette thèse améliore notre compréhension des effets météorologiques et du climat sur l’expansion de la répartition des espèces ainsi que les mécanismes démographiques impliqués, et nous a permis de prédire la probabilité de l’expansion nordique de la répartition du dindon sauvage en réponse aux changements climatiques.

“Step by step”: high frequency short-distance epizoochorous dispersal of aquatic macrophytes

Aquatic macrophytes can successfully colonise and re-colonise areas separated by space and time. The mechanisms underlying such “mobility” are not well understood, but it has often been hypothesised that epizoochory (external dispersal) plays an important role. Yet, there is only limited, and mostly anecdotal, evidence concerning successful epizoochorous dispersal of aquatic macrophytes, particularly in the case of short-distance dispersal. Here we examine in situ and ex situ dispersal of aquatic macrophytes, including three invasive alien species. A high frequency of Lemna minor Linnaeus dispersal was observed in situ, and this was linked to bird-mediated epizoochory. We concluded that wind had no effect on dispersal. Similarly, in an ex situ examination Lemna minuta Kunth and Azolla filiculoides Lamarck, were found to be dispersed with a high frequency by mallard ducks (Anas platyrhynchos). No dispersal was measured for Elodea nuttalli (Planchon) H. St. John. It is concluded that short-distance or “stepping-stone” dispersal via bird-mediated epizoochory can occur with high frequencies, and therefore can play an important role in facilitating colonisation, range expansion and biological invasion of macrophytes.

Cell invasion with proliferation mechanisms motivated by time-lapse data

Cell invasion involves a population of cells which are motile and proliferative. Traditional discrete models of proliferation involve agents depositing daughter agents on nearest- neighbor lattice sites. Motivated by time-lapse images of cell invasion, we propose and analyze two new discrete proliferation models in the context of an exclusion process with an undirected motility mechanism. These discrete models are related to a family of reaction- diffusion equations and can be used to make predictions over a range of scales appropriate for interpreting experimental data. The new proliferation mechanisms are biologically relevant and mathematically convenient as the continuum-discrete relationship is more robust for the new proliferation mechanisms relative to traditional approaches.

Understanding the mechanism behind invasion of African lovegrass

African lovegrass (Eragrostis curvula) is a C4 perennial grass, native to southern Africa, that was accidentally introduced into Australia in the late 1900s as a contaminant of pasture seed. Its utility for pasture improvement and soil conservation was explored because of its recognised ability to grow in areas of low rainfall and on nutrient-poor sandy loams. Several different agronomic types have now been intentionally introduced across Australia. African lovegrass is now found in all Australian states and territories. It is a declared weed in 33 council areas of New South Wales, a declared pest plant in the ACT and Tasmania and a Regionally Prohibited Weed in 5 out of 11 regions in Victoria. Victoria has also placed it in the very serious threat category (Carr et al. 1992). In Queensland, it has yet to be declared except under local law in the Eidsvold shire (Leigh and Walton, in press).

Unravelling the mechanisms behind the invasion of an introduced and now undesirable grass species

The introduction of Eragrostis curvula (African Lovegrass, herafter Lovegrass) for pasture improvement across Australia has not been successful. Instead Lovegrass, a C4 perennial grass originating from Southern African, has proven unpalatable to stock and to have low nutritional value if stocks do eat it. It has spread prolifically along roadsides, stream banks, conservation areas and pastures. Because control efforts have not been effective, our aim was to determine the putative mechanisms responsible for the dominance of Lovegrass, specifically disturbance (selective grazing) and competition.

Lattice-free models of cell invasion : discrete simulations and travelling waves

Invasion waves of cells play an important role in development, disease and repair. Standard discrete models of such processes typically involve simulating cell motility, cell proliferation and cell-to-cell crowding effects in a lattice-based framework. The continuum-limit description is often given by a reaction–diffusion equation that is related to the Fisher–Kolmogorov equation. One of the limitations of a standard lattice-based approach is that real cells move and proliferate in continuous space and are not restricted to a predefined lattice structure. We present a lattice-free model of cell motility and proliferation, with cell-to-cell crowding effects, and we use the model to replicate invasion wave-type behaviour. The continuum-limit description of the discrete model is a reaction–diffusion equation with a proliferation term that is different from lattice-based models. Comparing lattice based and lattice-free simulations indicates that both models lead to invasion fronts that are similar at the leading edge, where the cell density is low. Conversely, the two models make different predictions in the high density region of the domain, well behind the leading edge. We analyse the continuum-limit description of the lattice based and lattice-free models to show that both give rise to invasion wave type solutions that move with the same speed but have very different shapes. We explore the significance of these differences by calibrating the parameters in the standard Fisher–Kolmogorov equation using data from the lattice-free model. We conclude that estimating parameters using this kind of standard procedure can produce misleading results.

Predicting invasion in grassland ecosystems: is exotic dominance the real embarrassment of richness?

Invasions have increased the size of regional species pools, but are typically assumed to reduce native diversity. However, global-scale tests of this assumption have been elusive because of the focus on exotic species richness, rather than relative abundance. This is problematic because low invader richness can indicate invasion resistance by the native community or, alternatively, dominance by a single exotic species. Here, we used a globally replicated study to quantify relationships between exotic richness and abundance in grass-dominated ecosystems in 13 countries on six continents, ranging from salt marshes to alpine tundra. We tested effects of human land use, native community diversity, herbivore pressure, and nutrient limitation on exotic plant dominance. Despite its widespread use, exotic richness was a poor proxy for exotic dominance at low exotic richness, because sites that contained few exotic species ranged from relatively pristine (low exotic richness and cover) to almost completely exotic-dominated ones (low exotic richness but high exotic cover). Both exotic cover and richness were predicted by native plant diversity (native grass richness) and land use (distance to cultivation). Although climate was important for predicting both exotic cover and richness, climatic factors predicting cover (precipitation variability) differed from those predicting richness (maximum temperature and mean temperature in the wettest quarter). Herbivory and nutrient limitation did not predict exotic richness or cover. Exotic dominance was greatest in areas with low native grass richness at the site- or regional-scale. Although this could reflect native grass displacement, a lack of biotic resistance is a more likely explanation, given that grasses comprise the most aggressive invaders. These findings underscore the need to move beyond richness as a surrogate for the extent of invasion, because this metric confounds monodominance with invasion resistance. Monitoring species' relative abundance will more rapidly advance our understanding of invasions.

Existence of travelling wave solutions for a model of tumour invasion

The existence of travelling wave solutions to a haptotaxis dominated model is analysed. A version of this model has been derived in Perumpanani et al. (1999) to describe tumour invasion, where diffusion is neglected as it is assumed to play only a small role in the cell migration. By instead allowing diffusion to be small, we reformulate the model as a singular perturbation problem, which can then be analysed using geometric singular perturbation theory. We prove the existence of three types of physically realistic travelling wave solutions in the case of small diffusion. These solutions reduce to the no diffusion solutions in the singular limit as diffusion as is taken to zero. A fourth travelling wave solution is also shown to exist, but that is physically unrealistic as it has a component with negative cell population. The numerical stability, in particular the wavespeed of the travelling wave solutions is also discussed.

A multi-genome analysis approach enables tracking of the invasion of a single Russian wheat aphid (Diuraphis noxia) clone throughout the New World

This study investigated the population genetics, demographic history and pathway of invasion of the Russian wheat aphid (RWA) from its native range in Central Asia, the Middle East and Europe to South Africa and the Americas. We screened microsatellite markers, mitochondrial DNA and endosymbiont genes in 504 RWA clones from nineteen populations worldwide. Following pathway analyses of microsatellite and endosymbiont data, we postulate that Turkey and Syria were the most likely sources of invasion to Kenya and South Africa, respectively. Furthermore, we found that one clone transferred between South Africa and the Americas was most likely responsible for the New World invasion. Finally, endosymbiont DNA was found to be a high resolution population genetic marker, extremely useful for studies of invasion over a relatively short evolutionary history time frame. This study has provided valuable insights into the factors that may have facilitated the recent global invasion by this damaging pest.