Future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss.

Current levels of endangerment and historical trends of species and habitats are the main criteria used to direct conservation efforts globally. Estimates of future declines, which might indicate different priorities than past declines, have been limited by the lack of appropriate data and models. Given that much of conservation is about anticipating and responding to future threats, our inability to look forward at a global scale has been a major constraint on effective action. Here, we assess the geography and extent of projected future changes in suitable habitat for terrestrial mammals within their present ranges. We used a global earth-system model, IMAGE, coupled with fine-scale habitat suitability models and parametrized according to four global scenarios of human development. We identified the most affected countries by 2050 for each scenario, assuming that no additional conservation actions other than those described in the scenarios take place. We found that, with some exceptions, most of the countries with the largest predicted losses of suitable habitat for mammals are in Africa and the Americas. African and North American countries were also predicted to host the most species with large proportional global declines. Most of the countries we identified as future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss have little or no overlap with the present global conservation priorities, thus confirming the need for forward-looking analyses in conservation priority setting. The expected growth in human populations and consumption in hotspots of future mammal loss mean that local conservation actions such as protected areas might not be sufficient to mitigate losses. Other policies, directed towards the root causes of biodiversity loss, are required, both in Africa and other parts of the world.

Spatial predictions of land-use transitions and associated threats to biodiversity: the case of forest regrowth in mountain grasslands

Question Can we predict where forest regrowth caused by abandonment of agricultural activities is likely to occur? Can we assess how it may conflict with grassland diversity hotspots? Location Western Swiss Alps (4003210m a.s.l.). Methods We used statistical models to predict the location of land abandonment by farmers that is followed by forest regrowth in semi-natural grasslands of the Western Swiss Alps. Six modelling methods (GAM, GBM, GLM, RF, MDA, MARS) allowing binomial distribution were tested on two successive transitions occurring between three time periods. Models were calibrated using data on land-use change occurring between 1979 and 1992 as response, and environmental, accessibility and socio-economic variables as predictors, and these were validated for their capacity to predict the changes observed from 1992 to 2004. Projected probabilities of land-use change from an ensemble forecast of the six models were combined with a model of plant species richness based on a field inventory, allowing identification of critical grassland areas for the preservation of biodiversity. Results Models calibrated over the first land-use transition period predicted the second transition with reasonable accuracy. Forest regrowth occurs where cultivation costs are high and yield potential is low, i.e. on steeper slopes and at higher elevations. Overlaying species richness with land-use change predictions, we identified priority areas for the management and conservation of biodiversity at intermediate elevations. Conclusions Combining land-use change and biodiversity projections, we propose applied management measures for targeted/identified locations to limit the loss of biodiversity that could otherwise occur through loss of open habitats. The same approach could be applied to other types of land-use changes occurring in other ecosystems.

Aplicação dos conceitos da ecologia de paisagem para a definição de hotspots de conservação e de conectividade entre o Complexo Cantareira e Nazaré Paulista

The Atlantic Forest biome, reduced to 12% of its original coverage, holds a significant portion of brazilian biodiversity, with high levels of endemism. Among the few remaining areas of the Atlantic, there is the region between the Complex of Cantareira and the municipality of Nazaré Paulista, which will be the object of study of this work. Using the concepts of Landscape Ecology, and analysis of thematic maps, this study aims to characterize the region in a ecologically scaled perspective, identifying two types of hotspots: i) for conservation and ii) for maintain habitat connectivity. Concepts of Landscape Ecology as landscape structure, patches, matrix, corridors (structural and functional) and connectivity, as well as their effects on local biodiversity was adopted and applied in the study region. We also analyzed the effects of roads, hydrographic system, Permanent Protection Areas (PPAs), and Conservation Units for flora and fauna maintenance at regional scale. This allowed us to define strategies and priority areas for the conservation and restoration of forest fragments of Atlantic Forest remnants within the study region. This study generated relevant knowledge for a better planning the region in order to create best conditions for the maintenance of regional biodiversity, and consequently, allowing to improve the quality of life for local population

The utility of open-access biodiversity information in representing anurans in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest and Cerrado

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Beyond deforestation monitoring in conservation hotspots: Analysing landscape mosaic dynamics in north-eastern Madagascar

Due to its extraordinary biodiversity and rapid deforestation, north-eastern Madagascar is a conservation hotspot of global importance. Reducing shifting cultivation is a high priority for policy-makers and conservationists; however, spatially explicit evidence of shifting cultivation is lacking due to the difficulty of mapping it with common remote sensing methods. To overcome this challenge, we adopted a landscape mosaic approach to assess the changes between natural forests, shifting cultivation and permanent cultivation systems at the regional level from 1995 to 2011. Our study confirmed that shifting cultivation is still being used to produce subsistence rice throughout the region, but there is a trend of intensification away from shifting cultivation towards permanent rice production, especially near protected areas. While large continuous forest exists today only in the core zones of protected areas, the agricultural matrix is still dominated by a dense cover of tree crops and smaller forest fragments. We believe that this evidence makes a crucial contribution to the development of interventions to prevent further conversion of forest to agricultural land while improving local land users' well-being.

Adaptive management, international co-operation and planning for marine conservation hotspots in a changing climate

Acknowledgements This work received funding from the MASTS pooling initiative (The Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland) and their support is gratefully acknowledged. MASTS is funded by the Scottish Funding Council (Grant reference HR09011) and contributing institutions.

Adaptive management, international co-operation and planning for marine conservation hotspots in a changing climate

Acknowledgements This work received funding from the MASTS pooling initiative (The Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland) and their support is gratefully acknowledged. MASTS is funded by the Scottish Funding Council (Grant reference HR09011) and contributing institutions.

Distribution patterns of endemic flora to define hotspots on Hispaniola

Nineteen areas on the island of Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) were studied with the aim of determining the distribution pattern of the endemic flora in these areas, and their variability with altitude. The main concentration of endemic species occurs in mountains with a medium altitude and in certain mountain sites (palaeo-islands), which coincide with hotspots; a lower number of endemics are found in low-lying areas (coldspots), due to the degradation of their habitats. A total of 1,582 endemic species were studied and were distributed in 19 areas. The whole island is of outstanding interest for its richness in endemics; it has 2,050 endemic species, representing 34.16% of its total flora. The territory in the study is home to 1,284 genera of which 31 are endemic to the island, including monotypical genera such as Tortuella abietifolia Urb. & Ekman, and endemic genera such as Hottea, containing seven endemic species. The sites with the highest rate of endemics are area A16 in the central range with a total of 440 endemic species, of which 278 are exclusive to the territory; and the Sierra de Bahoruco, la Selle, La Hotte and Tibur on in area A12, where we found 699 plants of which 482 are endemic and exclusive to the area; and A13 with 173 and 129 respectively. This work highlights the exceptional floristic diversity in endemic species and genera and analyses their distribution patterns as a tool for conservation in this area of the world, whose high endemicity rate makes it one of the most significant hotspots in the Caribbean.

Fish Biodiversity Of The Vitória-trindade Seamount Chain, Southwestern Atlantic: An Updated Database.

Despite a strong increase in research on seamounts and oceanic islands ecology and biogeography, many basic aspects of their biodiversity are still unknown. In the southwestern Atlantic, the Vitória-Trindade Seamount Chain (VTC) extends ca. 1,200 km offshore the Brazilian continental shelf, from the Vitória seamount to the oceanic islands of Trindade and Martin Vaz. For a long time, most of the biological information available regarded its islands. Our study presents and analyzes an extensive database on the VTC fish biodiversity, built on data compiled from literature and recent scientific expeditions that assessed both shallow to mesophotic environments. A total of 273 species were recorded, 211 of which occur on seamounts and 173 at the islands. New records for seamounts or islands include 191 reef fish species and 64 depth range extensions. The structure of fish assemblages was similar between islands and seamounts, not differing in species geographic distribution, trophic composition, or spawning strategies. Main differences were related to endemism, higher at the islands, and to the number of endangered species, higher at the seamounts. Since unregulated fishing activities are common in the region, and mining activities are expected to drastically increase in the near future (carbonates on seamount summits and metals on slopes), this unique biodiversity needs urgent attention and management.

Beyond the Fragmentation Threshold Hypothesis: Regime Shifts in Biodiversity Across Fragmented Landscapes

Ecological systems are vulnerable to irreversible change when key system properties are pushed over thresholds, resulting in the loss of resilience and the precipitation of a regime shift. Perhaps the most important of such properties in human-modified landscapes is the total amount of remnant native vegetation. In a seminal study Andren proposed the existence of a fragmentation threshold in the total amount of remnant vegetation, below which landscape-scale connectivity is eroded and local species richness and abundance become dependent on patch size. Despite the fact that species patch-area effects have been a mainstay of conservation science there has yet to be a robust empirical evaluation of this hypothesis. Here we present and test a new conceptual model describing the mechanisms and consequences of biodiversity change in fragmented landscapes, identifying the fragmentation threshold as a first step in a positive feedback mechanism that has the capacity to impair ecological resilience, and drive a regime shift in biodiversity. The model considers that local extinction risk is defined by patch size, and immigration rates by landscape vegetation cover, and that the recovery from local species losses depends upon the landscape species pool. Using a unique dataset on the distribution of non-volant small mammals across replicate landscapes in the Atlantic forest of Brazil, we found strong evidence for our model predictions - that patch-area effects are evident only at intermediate levels of total forest cover, where landscape diversity is still high and opportunities for enhancing biodiversity through local management are greatest. Furthermore, high levels of forest loss can push native biota through an extinction filter, and result in the abrupt, landscape-wide loss of forest-specialist taxa, ecological resilience and management effectiveness. The proposed model links hitherto distinct theoretical approaches within a single framework, providing a powerful tool for analysing the potential effectiveness of management interventions.

Factors influencing biodiversity and distributional gradients in mangroves

Numerous factors affect the distribution of mangrove plants. Most mangrove species are typically dispersed by water-buoyant propagules, allowing them to lake advantage of estuarine, coastal and ocean currents both to replenish existing stands and to establish new ones. The direction they travel depends on sea currents and land barriers, but the dispersal distance depends on the time that propagules remain buoyant and viable. This is expected to differ for each species. Similarly, each species will also differ in establishment success and growth development rate, and each has tolerance limits and growth responses which are apparently unique. Such attributes are presumably responsible for the characteristic distributional ranges of each species, as each responds to the environmental, physical and biotic settings they might occupy. In practice, species are often ordered by the interplay of different factors along environmental gradients, and these may conveniently be considered at four geographic scales-global, regional, estuarine and intertidal. We believe these influencing factors act similarly around the world, and to demonstrate this point, we present examples of distributional gradients from the two global biogeographic regions, the Atlantic East Pacific and the Indo-West Pacific.

Biodiversity: bridging the gap between condition and conservation

The aim of this study is to create a two-tiered assessment combining restoration and conservation, both needed for biodiversity management. The first tier of this approach assesses the condition of a site using a standard bioassessment method, AUSRIVAS, to determine whether significant loss of biodiversity has occurred because of human activity. The second tier assesses the conservation value of sites that were determined to be unimpacted in the first step against a reference database. This ensures maximum complementarity without having to set a priori target areas. Using the reference database, we assign site-specific and comparable coefficients for both restoration (Observed/Expected taxa with > 50% probability of occurrence) and conservation values (O/E taxa with < 50%, rare taxa). In a trial on 75 sites on rivers around Sydney, NSW, Australia we were able to identify three regions: (1) an area that may need restoration; (2) an area that had a high conservation value and; (3) a region that was identified as having significant biodiversity loss but with high potential to respond to rehabilitation and become a biodiversity hotspot. These examples highlight the use of the new framework as a comprehensive system for biodiversity assessment.

Implications of current ecological thinking for biodiversity conservation: A review of the salient issues

Given escalating concern worldwide about the loss of biodiversity, and given biodiversity's centrality to quality of life, it is imperative that current ecological knowledge fully informs societal decision making. Over the past two decades, ecological science has undergone many significant shifts in emphasis and perspective, which have important implications for how we manage ecosystems and species. In particular, a shift has occurred from the equilibrium paradigm to one that recognizes the dynamic, non-equilibrium nature of ecosystems. Revised thinking about the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecological systems has important implications for management. Thus, it is of growing concern to ecologists and others that these recent developments have not been translated into information useful to managers and policy makers. Many conservation policies and plans are still based on equilibrium assumptions. A fundamental difficulty with integrating current ecological thinking into biodiversity policy and management planning is that field observations have yet to provide compelling evidence for many of the relationships suggested by non-equilibrium ecology. Yet despite this scientific uncertainty, management and policy decisions must still be made. This paper was motivated by the need for considered scientific debate on the significance of current ideas in theoretical ecology for biodiversity conservation. This paper aims to provide a platform for such discussion by presenting a critical synthesis of recent ecological literature that (1) identifies core issues in ecological theory, and (2) explores the implications of current ecological thinking for biodiversity conservation.