Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry

Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.

Soil profile internal drainage for a central pivot fertigated coffee crop

Coffee cultivation via central-pivot fertigation can lead to fertilizer losses by soil profile internal drainage when water application is excessive and soils have low water retention and cation adsorption capacities. This study analyses the deep water losses from the top 1 m sandy soil layer of east Bahia, Brazil, cultivated with coffee at a high technology level (central-pivot fertigation), using above normal N fertilizer rates. The deep drainage (Q) estimation is made through the application of a climatologic water balance (CWB) program having as input direct measures of irrigation and rainfall, climatological data from weather stations, and measured soil water retention characteristics. The aim of the study is to contribute to the understanding of the hydric regime of coffee crops managed by central-pivot irrigation, analyzing three scenarios (Sc): i) rainfall only, ii) rainfall and irrigation full year, and iii) rainfall and irrigation dry season only. Annual Q values for the 2008/2009 agricultural year were: Sc i = 811.5 mm; Sc ii = 1010.5 mm; and Sc iii = 873.1 mm, so that the irrigation interruption in the wet season reduced Q by 15.7%, without the appearance of water deficit periods. Results show that the use of the CWB program is a convenient tool for the evaluation of Q under the cited conditions.

Tuberculosis Control Program and patient satisfaction, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

OBJECTIVE To evaluate factors associated with users’ satisfaction in the Tuberculosis Control Program. METHODS A cross-sectional study of 295 patients aged ≥ 18 years, with two or more outpatient visits in the Tuberculosis Control Program, in five cities in the metropolitan region of Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Southeastern Brazil, in 2010. Considering an estimated population of 4,345 patients, the sampling plan included 15 health care units participating in the program, divided into two strata: units in Rio de Janeiro City, selected with probability proportional to the monthly average number of outpatient visits, and units in the other four cities. In the units, four temporal clusters of five patients each were selected with equal probability, totaling 300 patients. A questionnaire investigating the users’ clinical and sociodemographic variables and aspects of care and service in the program relevant to user satisfaction was applied to the patients. Descriptive statistics about users and their satisfaction with the program were obtained, and the effects of factors associated with satisfaction were estimated. RESULTS Patients were predominantly males (57.7%), with a mean age of 40.9 and with low level of schooling. The mean treatment time was 4.1 months, mostly self-administered (70.4%). Additionally, 25.8% had previously been treated for tuberculosis. There was a high level of satisfaction, especially regarding medication provision, and respect to patients by the health professionals. Patients who were younger (≤ 30), those on self-administered treatment, and with graduate level, showed less satisfaction. Suggestions to improve the services include having more doctors (70.0%), and offering exams in the same place of attendance (55.1%). CONCLUSIONS Patient satisfaction with the Tuberculosis Control Program was generally high, although lower among younger patients, those with university education and those on self-administered treatment. The study indicates the need for changes to structural and organizational aspects of care, and provides practical support for its improvement.

Successful control program to implement the appropriate antibiotic prophylaxis for cesarean section

OBJECTIVE: Describe implementation of a successful program to reduce doses (cefazolin 2 to 1 g) used for antimicrobial prophylaxis. METHODS: Evaluation of an intervention program to reduce prophylactic antimicrobial doses. The intervention included weekly staff discussions, automatic dispensation of 1g-vial of cefazolin by the pharmacy unless expressly requested by surgeon and increase in post-discharge surveillance as a strategy to reassure surgeons of the safety of the reduction. In the pre and post intervention periods, a prospective study of antimicrobial consumption and surgical site infections were measured. RESULTS: There were 5,164 and 5,204 deliveries in 2001-2002 and 2003-2004, respectively; 1,524 (29.5%) and 1,363 (26%) were cesarean sections. There was a 45% decrease in cefazolin vials used on average per cesarean section (2.29 to 1.25). Patients evaluated increased from 16% to 67% and the SSI rates in both periods were 3.34% to 2.42%, respectively. CONCLUSION: An ample intervention, including administrative and educational measures, led to high compliance with dose reduction and saved more than US$4,000 in cefazolin, considered important because government reimbursement in Brazil for cesarean section is $80.

Contract-program evaluation: Impact of the DRG classification system on hospitals' outputs

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

A diabetes: principais parâmetros para o controlo da diabetes

RESUMO: A Diabetes Mellitus é uma doença metabólica crónica, com deficiência a nível do metabolismo dos hidratos de carbono, lípidos e proteínas, resultante de deficiências na secreção ou ação da insulina, ou de ambas, que quando não tratada antecipadamente e de modo conveniente, pode ter consequências muito graves. Dado a incidência a nível mundial da Diabetes Mellitus, torna-se de elevada importância avaliar toda a sua envolvência e estudar bem quais os critérios a ter em consideração. Este trabalho propõe-se estudar para além dos parâmetros bioquímicos relacionados com a doença - Glicose e Hemoglobina Glicada A1c (HbA1c), analisar os resultados dos últimos cinco anos (2008-2012) dos ensaios interlaboratoriais do PNAEQ, do Departamento de Epidemiologia, do Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge. Foram também analisadas as metodologias utilizadas e as variações interlaboratoriais, de forma a entender qual ou quais são os parâmetros mais adequados para o seu diagnóstico e controlo. Este estudo utilizou a população de laboratórios portugueses, públicos e privados, de Portugal Continental e Ilhas, um laboratório de Angola e outro de Macau que se inscreveram no PNAEQ nestes cinco anos, sendo a amostra composta pelo n.º de participações. No programa de Química Clinica foram distribuídas 38 amostras e no programa de HbA1c foram distribuídas 22 amostras. Para a glicose, o nível de desempenho nos ensaios é na globalidade das amostras de Excelente, no entanto verifica-se que sempre que a concentração da amostra é de nível patológico, que a maioria dos ensaios o desempenho foi inferior – Bom. O método de eleição e com CV% mais baixos foi o método da hexoquinase. Para a HbA1c, o nível de desempenho nos ensaios é na globalidade das amostras de Excelente. O método de eleição e com CV% mais baixos foi o método de HPLC. O CV% para a glicose ronda desde 2010 a 2012, os 3% e para a HbA1c foi de aproximadamente 4,0% em 2012. A HbA1c tem mostrado ser uma ferramenta muito útil, importante e robusta na monitorização da Diabetes, sendo hoje em dia quase sempre requisitada em análises de rotina a diabéticos de modo a prevenir complicações que possam vir a acorrer. No futuro poderá ser um importante, senão o parâmetro de futuro, para o diagnóstico da Diabetes, no entanto, mesmo já tendo sido muito trabalhada a sua padronização, ainda existem questões por responder como quais são na realidade todos os seus interferentes, qual a verdadeira relação da HbA1c com a glicose média estimada, em todas as populações e com estudos epidemiológicos. Também a própria educação do diabético e clínico deve ser aprimorada, pelo que neste momento as PTGO e os doseamentos de glicose em jejum devem ser utilizados e encontrando-se a Norma da DGS N.º 033/2011 de acordo com as necessidades e com o estado da arte deste parâmetro. A implementação da glicose média estimada será uma mais-valia na monitorização dos diabéticos pelo que deverá ser uma das prioridades a ter em conta no futuro desta padronização, uniformizando a decisão clinica baseada nela e minimizando a dificuldade de interpretação de resultados de laboratório para laboratório. --------------ABSTRACT: Diabetes Mellitus is a chronic metabolic disease, with a deficit in the metabolism of carbohydrates, lipids and proteins, resulting from deficiencies in insulin secretion or action, or both, which if, when not early treated in a proper way, may result in very serious consequences. Given the worldwide incidence of diabetes mellitus, it is highly important to evaluate all its background and study specifically all the criteria to take into consideration. The aim of this thesis is to study and evaluate beyond the biochemical parameters related to the disease - Glucose and Glycated Haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), analyze the results of the last five years (2008-2012) of the PNAEQ interlaboratorial tests, in the Department of Epidemiology of National Institute of Health Dr. Ricardo Jorge. It is also intended to analyze the methodologies used and the interlaboratorial variations, in order to understand the most suitable parameters for the diagnosis and control. This study was based in a population of Portuguese laboratories, public and private, of Portugal mainland and islands, a laboratory of Angola and other from Macau, who enrolled in PNAEQ in these five years, and the sample was composed by the n. º of holdings. In the Clinical Chemistry Program there were distributed 38 samples and in the program HbA1c were distributed 22 samples. For glucose, the level of performance in the total nº of the samples was Excellent; however, it was found that when the concentration level of the sample was pathological, in most of the tests the performance was Good. The most preferred method with the lowest CV% is the hexokinase method. For the HbA1c, as a whole, the samples’ tests were Excellent, at the level of performance. The method of election with the lower CV% was the HPLC. The CV% for glucose was around 3%, from 2010 to 2012 and the HbA1c was approximately 4.0% in 2012. The HbA1c method has demonstrated to be a very useful tool, important and robust for monitoring diabetes, being nowadays, almost always required in routine analysis to prevent future complications. In the future it may be an important parameter, if not the most important, for the diagnosis of diabetes. However, despite it has already been standardized, there are still some questions that need to be answered, such as, which are in fact all their interferences, which is the true connection of HbA1c, when compared with the estimated average glucose, in all populations and epidemiological studies. Moreover, the education of the patient and the doctor concerning diabetes should be improved. Nowadays, the Oral Glucose Tolerance Test (OGTT) and fasting glucose determinations should be used and, the needs and the state of the art of this parameter, should be in accordance with the Standard DGS N. º 033/2011. The Implementation of the estimated average glucose will be an added value in monitoring diabetics and, therefore, should be a priority to consider in its future standardization and clinical decision based on it, will be uniform and the difficulty of interpreting results from laboratory to laboratory will be minimal.

Effects of an exercise program on the functional capacity of patients with chronic Chagas' heart disease, evaluated by cardiopulmonary testing

INTRODUCTION: Despite all efforts to restrict its transmission, Chagas' disease remains a severe public health problem in Latin America, affecting 8-12 million individuals. Chronic Chagas' heart disease, the chief factor in the high mortality rate associated with the illness, affects more than half a million Brazilians. Its evolution may result in severe heart failure associated with loss of functional capacity and quality of life, with important social and medical/labor consequences. Many studies have shown the beneficial effect of regular exercise on cardiac patients, but few of them have focused on chronic Chagas' heart disease. METHODS: This study evaluated the effects of an exercise program on the functional capacity of patients with chronic Chagas' disease who were treated in outpatient clinics at the Evandro Chagas Institute of Clinical Research and the National Institute of Cardiology, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The exercises were performed 3 times a week for 1 h (30 min of aerobic activity and 30 min of resistance exercises and extension) over 6 months in 2010. Functional capacity was evaluated by comparing the direct measurement of the O2 uptake volume (VO2) obtained by a cardiopulmonary exercise test before and after the program (p < 0.05). RESULTS: Eighteen patients (13 females) were followed, with minimum and maximum ages of 30 and 72 years, respectively. We observed an average increase of VO2peak > 10% (p = 0.01949). CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest a statistically significant improvement in functional capacity with regular exercise of the right intensity.

Evaluation of parasitological examination, kDNA polymerase chain reaction and rK39-based immunochromatography for the diagnosis of visceral leishmaniasis in seropositive dogs from the screening-culling program in Brazil

Introduction Dogs play a primary role in the zoonotic cycle of visceral leishmaniasis (VL). Therefore, the accurate diagnosis of infected dogs, primarily asymptomatic dogs, is crucial to the efficiency of VL control programs. Methods We investigated the agreement of four diagnostic tests for canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL): parasite detection, either after myeloculture or by direct microscopic examination of tissue imprints; kinetoplast-deoxyribonucleic acid-polymerase chain reaction (kDNA-PCR); and an immunochromatographic test (ICT). An enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and an indirect immunofluorescence test (IFAT), both of which were adopted as part of the screening-culling program in Brazil, were used as reference tests. Our sample set consisted of 44 seropositive dogs, 25 of which were clinically asymptomatic and 19 were symptomatic for CVL according to ELISA-IFAT. Results The highest and lowest test co-positivities were observed for ICT (77.3%) and myeloculture (58.1%), respectively. When analyzed together, the overall percentage of co-positive tests was significantly higher for the symptomatic group compared to the asymptomatic group. However, only ICT was significantly different based on the results of a separate analysis per test for each group of dogs. The majority (93.8%) of animals exhibited at least one positive test result, with an average of 2.66 positive tests per dog. Half of the symptomatic dogs tested positive for all four tests administered. Conclusions The variability between test results reinforces the need for more efficient and reliable methods to accurately diagnose canine VL, particularly in asymptomatic animals.

Analysis of classification algorithms for crop detection using LANDSAT 8 images

Remote sensing - the acquisition of information about an object or phenomenon without making physical contact with the object - is applied in a multitude of different areas, ranging from agriculture, forestry, cartography, hydrology, geology, meteorology, aerial traffic control, among many others. Regarding agriculture, an example of application of this information is regarding crop detection, to monitor existing crops easily and help in the region’s strategic planning. In any of these areas, there is always an ongoing search for better methods that allow us to obtain better results. For over forty years, the Landsat program has utilized satellites to collect spectral information from Earth’s surface, creating a historical archive unmatched in quality, detail, coverage, and length. The most recent one was launched on February 11, 2013, having a number of improvements regarding its predecessors. This project aims to compare classification methods in Portugal’s Ribatejo region, specifically regarding crop detection. The state of the art algorithms will be used in this region and their performance will be analyzed.

Oropharyngeal colonization by Haemophilus influenzae in healthy children from Taubaté (São Paulo), prior to the Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccination program in Brazil

Haemophilus influenzae is one of the most important bacterial agents of otitis and sinusitis. H. influenzae type b (Hib) is one of the main causes of meningitis, pneumonia, and septicemia in nonvaccinated children under 6 years of age. The aims of this study were to determine the prevalence of H. influenzae and Hib oropharyngeal colonization prior to the onset of the Hib vaccination program in Brazil in previously healthy children and to assess the susceptibility profile of this microorganism to a selected group of antimicrobials that are used to treat acute respiratory infections. METHOD: Cultures of Haemophilus influenzae were made from oropharynx swabs from 987 children under 6 years of age who were enrolled in 29 day-care centers in Taubaté (a city of São Paulo state, Brazil) between July and December 1998. RESULTS: The prevalence of H. influenzae carriers was 17.4%, and only 5.5% of the strains were beta-lactamase producers. The prevalence of Hib carriers was high, 7.3% on average (range, 0.0 - 33.3%). CONCLUSIONS: The low prevalence of colonization by penicillin-resistant strains indicates that it is not necessary to substitute ampicilin or amoxicilin to effectively treat otitis and sinusitis caused by H. influenzae in Taubaté.

Spatial and temporal evolution of family-farming land use in the Tapajós region of the Brazilian Amazon

Pressures on the Brazilian Amazon forest have been accentuated by agricultural activities practiced by families encouraged to settle in this region in the 1970s by the colonization program of the government. The aims of this study were to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of land cover and land use (LCLU) in the lower Tapajós region, in the state of Pará. We contrast 11 watersheds that are generally representative of the colonization dynamics in the region. For this purpose, Landsat satellite images from three different years, 1986, 2001, and 2009, were analyzed with Geographic Information Systems. Individual images were subject to an unsupervised classification using the Maximum Likelihood Classification algorithm available on GRASS. The classes retained for the representation of LCLU in this study were: (1) slightly altered old-growth forest, (2) succession forest, (3) crop land and pasture, and (4) bare soil. The analysis and observation of general trends in eleven watersheds shows that LCLU is changing very rapidly. The average deforestation of old-growth forest in all the watersheds was estimated at more than 30% for the period of 1986 to 2009. The local-scale analysis of watersheds reveals the complexity of LCLU, notably in relation to large changes in the temporal and spatial evolution of watersheds. Proximity to the sprawling city of Itaituba is related to the highest rate of deforestation in two watersheds. The opening of roads such as the Transamazonian highway is associated to the second highest rate of deforestation in three watersheds.

A study of risk-aware program transformation

In the trend towards tolerating hardware unreliability, accuracy is exchanged for cost savings. Running on less reliable machines, functionally correct code becomes risky and one needs to know how risk propagates so as to mitigate it. Risk estimation, however, seems to live outside the average programmer’s technical competence and core practice. In this paper we propose that program design by source-to-source transformation be risk-aware in the sense of making probabilistic faults visible and supporting equational reasoning on the probabilistic behaviour of programs caused by faults. This reasoning is carried out in a linear algebra extension to the standard, `a la Bird-Moor algebra of programming. This paper studies, in particular, the propagation of faults across standard program transformation techniques known as tupling and fusion, enabling the fault of the whole to be expressed in terms of the faults of its parts.

Recent brazilian experience on farmer reaction and crop response to fertilizer use

(1) In the period 1965/77 fertilizer consumption in Brazil increased nearly fifteen foild from circa 200,000 tons of N + P2O5 + K2O to 3 million tons. During the fifteen years extending from 1950 to 1964 usage of the primary macronutrients was raised by a factor of 2 only. (2) Several explanations are given for the remarkable increase, namely: an experimental background which supplied data for recommendations of rates, time and type of application; a convenient governmental policy for minimum prices and rural credit; capacity of the industry to meet the demand of the fertilizer market; an adequate mechanism for the diffusion of the practice of fertilizer use to the farmer. (3) The extension work, which has caused a permanent change in the aptitude towards fertilization, was carried out in the traditional way by salesmen supported by a technical staff, as well as by agronomists of the official services. (4) Two new programs were started and conducted in a rather short time, both putting emphasis on the relatively new technology of fertilizer use. (5) The first program, conducted in the Southern part of the country, extended lab and green house work supplemented by a few field trials to small land owners - the so called "operação tatú" (operation armadillo). (6) The seconde program, covering a larger problem area in the Northeast and in Central Brazil, began directly in field as thousands of demonstrations and simple experiments with the participation of local people whose involvement was essential for the success of the initiative; in this case the official extension services, both foreign and national sources of funds, and universities did participate under the leadership of the Brazilian Association for the Diffusion of Fertilizers (ANDA). (7) It is felt that the Brazilian experience gained thereof could be useful to other countries under similar conditions.

The Instrumental voter goes to the news-agent: demand for information, election closeness, and the media

This paper studies the impact of instrumental voting on information demand and mass media behaviour during electoral campaigns. If voters act instrumentally then information demand should increase with the closeness of an election. Mass media are modeled as profit-maximizing firms that take into account information demand, the value of customers to advertisers and the marginal cost of customers. Information supply should be larger in electoral constituencies where the contest is expected to be closer, there is a higher population density, and customers are on average more profitable for advertisers. The impact of electorate size is theoretically undetermined. These conclusions are then tested with comfortable results on data from the 1997 general election in Britain.