Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 306 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 188 countries, 1990–2013: Quantifying the epidemiological transition

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Breeding and fecundity of the endemic Australian gudgeon, sleepy cod Oxyeleotris lineolatus (Steindachner 1867) (Eleotridae)

Sleepy cod (Oxyeleotris lineolatus Steindachner) is a tropical species of eleotrid native to northern Australia. A related species, sand or marbled goby, is the highest priced freshwater fish in Asia, and a market for a similar fish exists in expatriate Chinese communities. Sleepy cod breed when minimum temperatures reach 24 °C for more than 3 days. During the breeding season the genital papilla is broad and flattened in females compared to the triangular papilla of males and juveniles. Spawning pairs were usually of approximately equal size. Females could spawn up to 10 times during one breeding season. Wet weather increased the frequency of spawning. Eggs were usually laid hanging from the underside of a surface. Most spawning occurred between 05:00 and 10:00 h. Females attended egg masses immediately after spawning, after which males cared for eggs until hatching, 3–5 days later. Agitation of the egg mass was essential for development. The mean number of eggs per spawning was 43 130. Larvae commenced feeding 2–5 days after hatching, on plankton from 100 to 250 m in size. A spawning trap used to collect egg masses is described. The breeding biology of sleepy cod is considered to be an adaptation to the monsoonal tropics.

Studio portrait of Sarah-Bertha Klarenmeyer nee Meyerhof called "Spatz" as a young woman. portraits women

Digital Image

Studio portrait of Sarah-Bertha Klarenmeyer nee Meyerhof called Spatz Portrait Women

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Isaac Ottenberg Collection 1832-1867

Official German documents for Isaac Ottenberg, dated 1851, 1852, 1854. Also included is a handwritten letter to Herr Cronebold, June 1863.

Studio portrait of Sarah-Bertha Klarenmeyer nee Meyerhof called "Spatz" as a young woman. portraits women

Digital Image

Studio portrait of Sarah-Bertha Klarenmeyer nee Meyerhof called Spatz Portrait Women

Digital Image

R1SVM: A randomised nonlinear approach to large-scale anomaly detection

The problem of unsupervised anomaly detection arises in a wide variety of practical applications. While one-class support vector machines have demonstrated their effectiveness as an anomaly detection technique, their ability to model large datasets is limited due to their memory and time complexity for training. To address this issue for supervised learning of kernel machines, there has been growing interest in random projection methods as an alternative to the computationally expensive problems of kernel matrix construction and sup-port vector optimisation. In this paper we leverage the theory of nonlinear random projections and propose the Randomised One-class SVM (R1SVM), which is an efficient and scalable anomaly detection technique that can be trained on large-scale datasets. Our empirical analysis on several real-life and synthetic datasets shows that our randomised 1SVM algorithm achieves comparable or better accuracy to deep auto encoder and traditional kernelised approaches for anomaly detection, while being approximately 100 times faster in training and testing.

The last avant-garde?: Disability arts and (rethinking) mobility

Taking as its starting point a remark by Turner Prize nominee Yinka Shonibare that disability arts is “the last avant garde”, this panel focuses on the role of aesthetic experimentation in disability arts and the possible rethinking of the relationship between avant-garde aesthetic strategies and inclusive arts. Points of connection between the avant-garde and disability arts include a rejection of traditional aesthetic forms, the development of aesthetic strategies appropriate to non-normative bodies, politics and populations and the implications of these ideas for the conference themes. This panel is intended as a facilitated discussion involving researchers and artists undertaking work in this area. The panel will begin with some brief provocations reflecting on the implication of Shonibare’s comment. For example, Gerard Goggin will discuss three projects by Antoni Abad with artists and activists with disability in Barcelona, Geneva and Montreal as part of Abad’s Megaphone project, a decade-long, global digital art project. Bree Hadley will speak on performative interventions in public space, performance art, live art, activism and culture hacking by artists with disabilities, such as pwd's online performances, and artist’s performative responses to the austerity agenda in the US, UK, and Australasia. Eddie, Lachlan and Sarah will discuss ideas arising from their work on the project Beyond Access: The Creative Case for Inclusive Arts, which involved research with six Melbourne-based artists/artistic companies with disability, supported by Arts Access Victoria. Chair: Dr Eddie Paterson (School of Culture and Communication, Faculty of Arts, University of Melbourne) Dr Bree Hadley (Creative Industries, QUT) Professor Gerard Goggin (Professor of Media and Communication and ARC Future Fellow, University of Sydney) Dr Lachlan MacDowall (Head, Centre for Cultural Partnerships, University of Melbourne). Sarah Austin (PhD candidate, Theatre/Centre for Cultural Partnerships, VCA and MCM) Artists (tbc, based on existing relationships with artists developed in the Beyond Access research).

Collecção das Leis do Imperio do Brasil de 1867

Parte 1 - Atos do Poder Legislativo

Los inicios de la vascología en Holanda: El Essai de grammaire de la langue basque de Willem J. van Eys (1865, 1867)

Ed. by Xabier Artiagoitia, Patxi Goenaga & Joseba A. Lakarra.

Direito e interpretação na tradição do positivismo jurídico: uma análise de John Austin, H. L. A. Hart e seus críticos

O objetivo desta dissertação de mestrado é examinar as teses centrais do positivismo jurídico de John Austin e de H. L. A. Hart. Analiso inicialmente as críticas que Hart faz à teoria do direito como comando, proposta inicialmente por Austin na primeira metade do século XIX. Em seguida, ocupo-me das críticas de Ronald Dworkin ao positivismo jurídico, bem como das tentativas recentes de se retomar a teoria do direito como comando. Por fim, procuro mostrar de que forma a discussão em torno das críticas ao positivismo legal foi recebido no contexto do debate teórico-jurídico no Brasil.

Filogenia molecular, evolução de características morfológicas, variabilidade populacional, biogeografia e metabolômica comparativa: rumo a uma biologia integrativa para o gênero Mycale Gray, 1867 (Porifera)

O objetivo desta tese foi abordar a diversidade de Mycale Gray, 1867 sob um ponto de vista multidisciplinar. No Capítulo 1 foram realizadas reconstruções filogenéticas supra- e subgenéricas com base em dados moleculares, utilizando os marcadores 16S, 28S e cox1, a fim de estabelecer uma hipótese evolutiva para o grupo. No capítulo 2 são realizadas reconstruções ancestrais das características morfológicas do gênero dada a hipótese filogenética estabelecida no capítulo anterior, além de determinar limites na variação morfológica das anisoquelas tipo I por meio de análises morfométricas e estimar o padrão evolutivo das dimensões dos principais tipos espiculares de Mycale. No Capítulo 3 foi estimada a variabilidade genética do complexo Mycale (Carmia) microsigmatosa Arndt, 1927 por meio de análise de haplótipos do gene 16S do RNA ribossomal mitocondrial, além de correlacionar a sua variabilidade morfológica, estimada por meio de dimensões espiculares, com fatores genéticos e geográficos. No Capítulo 4 foram estabelecidas hipóteses biogeográficas para Mycale por meio de análise de três itens tendo como base as reconstruções filogenéticas moleculares e também foram determinados padrões de distribuição geográfica do gênero a partir da ocorrência de espécies em áreas de endemismo. Por fim, no Capítulo 5, os perfis metabólicos de três espécies do gênero Mycale foram obtidos por espectroscopia de ressonância magnética nuclear dos núcleos de hidrogênio (RMN 1H) e comparados estatisticamente, além de suas similaridades terem sido contrastadas com suas relações filogenéticas e suas diferenças entre grupos de indivíduos metabolicamente relacionados determinadas.

Estado e construção ferroviária: quinze anos decisivos para a economia brasileira, 1852-1867

Esta pesquisa procura ampliar e aprofundar o entendimento sobre a participação do Estado na construção ferroviária no século XIX. Com este objetivo, partimos da análise do processo histórico de formação do Estado brasileiro, de 1822 aos anos 1850, a fim de identificar configurações e traços culturais do sistema político no qual se inserem, como prioridade de governo, as políticas públicas e, em especial, o projeto ferroviário. Consideramos que as linhas básicas da política ferroviária, no Império, foram traçadas no período 1852-1867, durante a construção de seis ferrovias pioneiras. Detectamos, ainda, razoável correlação entre o traçado dos caminhos de ferro e os já conhecidos caminhos das minas, que conduziam a zonas onde se localizavam jazigos de pedras e metais preciosos, ferro, carvão, petróleo e outros recursos minerais. Observamos que a participação do Estado na construção ferroviária, no período, desenvolveu-se em duas frentes: como empresário responsável pela construção e gestão de malhas ferroviárias e como agente de regulação de empresas privadas, nacionais e estrangeiras, privilegiadas com longa lista de subvenções e incentivos, entre os quais se destaca a garantia de juro mínimo para os capitais investidos na construção de estradas de ferro.