A working memory bias for alcohol-related stimuli depends on drinking score

We tested 44 participants with respect to their working memory (WM) performance on alcohol-related versus neutral visual stimuli. Previously an alcohol attentional bias (AAB) had been reported using these stimuli, where the attention of frequent drinkers was automatically drawn toward alcohol-related items (e.g., beer bottle). The present study set out to provide evidence for an alcohol memory bias (AMB) that would persist over longer time-scales than the AAB. The WM task we used required memorizing 4 stimuli in their correct locations and a visual interference task was administered during a 4-sec delay interval. A subsequent probe required participants to indicate whether a stimulus was shown in the correct or incorrect location. For each participant we calculated a drinking score based on 3 items derived from the Alcohol Use Questionnaire, and we observed that higher scorers better remembered alcohol-related images compared with lower scorers, particularly when these were presented in their correct locations upon recall. This provides first evidence for an AMB. It is important to highlight that this effect persisted over a 4-sec delay period including a visual interference task that erased iconic memories and diverted attention away from the encoded items, thus the AMB cannot be reduced to the previously reported AAB. Our finding calls for further investigation of alcohol-related cognitive biases in WM, and we propose a preliminary model that may guide future research. © 2012 American Psychological Association.

Why Most Biomedical Findings Echoed by Newspapers Turn Out to be False: The Case of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder

Context: Because positive biomedical observations are more often published than those reporting no effect, initial observations are often refuted or attenuated by subsequent studies. Objective: To determine whether newspapers preferentially report on initial findings and whether they also report on subsequent studies. Methods: We focused on attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Using Factiva and PubMed databases, we identified 47 scientific publications on ADHD published in the 1990s and soon echoed by 347 newspapers articles. We selected the ten most echoed publications and collected all their relevant subsequent studies until 2011. We checked whether findings reported in each ‘‘top 10’’ publication were consistent with previous and subsequent observations. We also compared the newspaper coverage of the ‘‘top 10’’ publications to that of their related scientific studies. Results: Seven of the ‘‘top 10’’ publications were initial studies and the conclusions in six of them were either refuted or strongly attenuated subsequently. The seventh was not confirmed or refuted, but its main conclusion appears unlikely. Among the three ‘‘top 10’’ that were not initial studies, two were confirmed subsequently and the third was attenuated. The newspaper coverage of the ‘‘top 10’’ publications (223 articles) was much larger than that of the 67 related studies (57 articles). Moreover, only one of the latter newspaper articles reported that the corresponding ‘‘top 10’’ finding had been attenuated. The average impact factor of the scientific journals publishing studies echoed by newspapers (17.1 n = 56) was higher (p,0.0001) than that corresponding to related publications that were not echoed (6.4 n = 56). Conclusion: Because newspapers preferentially echo initial ADHD findings appearing in prominent journals, they report on uncertain findings that are often refuted or attenuated by subsequent studies. If this media reporting bias generalizes to health sciences, it represents a major cause of distortion in health science communication.

Pseudoneglect and visual attention networks

Pseudoneglect represents the tendency for healthy individuals to show a slight but consistent bias in favour of stimuli appearing in the left visual field. The bias is often measured using variants of the line bisection task. An accurate model of the functional architecture of the visuospatial attention system must account for this widely observed phenomenon, as well as for modulation of the direction and magnitude of the bias within individuals by a variety of factors relating to the state of the participant and/or stimulus characteristics. To date, the neural correlates of pseudoneglect remain relatively unmapped. In the current thesis, I employed a combination of psychophysical measurements, electroencephalography (EEG) recording and transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) in an attempt to probe the neural generator(s) of pseudoneglect. In particular, I wished to utilise and investigate some of the factors known to modulate the bias (including age, time-on-task and the length of the to-be-bisected line) in order to identify neural processes and activity that are necessary and sufficient for the lateralized bias to arise. Across four experiments utilising a computerized version of a perceptual line bisection task, pseudoneglect was consistently observed at baseline in healthy young participants. However, decreased line length (experiments 1, 2 and 3), time-on-task (experiment 1) and healthy aging (experiment 3) were all found to modulate the bias. Specifically, all three modulations induced a rightward shift in subjective midpoint estimation. Additionally, the line length and time-on-task effects (experiment 1) and the line length and aging effects (experiment 3) were found to have additive relationships. In experiment 2, EEG measurements revealed the line length effect to be reflected in neural activity 100 – 200ms post-stimulus onset over source estimated posterior regions of the right hemisphere (RH: temporo-parietal junction (TPJ)). Long lines induced a hemispheric asymmetry in processing (in favour of the RH) during this period that was absent in short lines. In experiment 4, bi-parietal tDCS (Left Anodal/Right Cathodal) induced a polarity-specific rightward shift in bias, highlighting the crucial role played by parietal cortex in the genesis of pseudoneglect. The opposite polarity (Left Cathodal/Right Anodal) did not induce a change in bias. The combined results from the four experiments of the current thesis provide converging evidence as to the crucial role played by the RH in the genesis of pseudoneglect and in the processing of visual input more generally. The reduction in pseudoneglect with decreased line length, increased time-on-task and healthy aging may be explained by a reduction in RH function, and hence contribution to task processing, induced by each of these modulations. I discuss how behavioural and neuroimaging studies of pseudoneglect (and its various modulators) can provide empirical data upon which accurate formal models of visuospatial attention networks may be based and further tested.

BIAS-CORRECTED MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF THE PARAMETERS OF THE WEIGHTED LINDLEY DISTRIBUTION

This report discusses the calculation of analytic second-order bias techniques for the maximum likelihood estimates (for short, MLEs) of the unknown parameters of the distribution in quality and reliability analysis. It is well-known that the MLEs are widely used to estimate the unknown parameters of the probability distributions due to their various desirable properties; for example, the MLEs are asymptotically unbiased, consistent, and asymptotically normal. However, many of these properties depend on an extremely large sample sizes. Those properties, such as unbiasedness, may not be valid for small or even moderate sample sizes, which are more practical in real data applications. Therefore, some bias-corrected techniques for the MLEs are desired in practice, especially when the sample size is small. Two commonly used popular techniques to reduce the bias of the MLEs, are ‘preventive’ and ‘corrective’ approaches. They both can reduce the bias of the MLEs to order O(n−2), whereas the ‘preventive’ approach does not have an explicit closed form expression. Consequently, we mainly focus on the ‘corrective’ approach in this report. To illustrate the importance of the bias-correction in practice, we apply the bias-corrected method to two popular lifetime distributions: the inverse Lindley distribution and the weighted Lindley distribution. Numerical studies based on the two distributions show that the considered bias-corrected technique is highly recommended over other commonly used estimators without bias-correction. Therefore, special attention should be paid when we estimate the unknown parameters of the probability distributions under the scenario in which the sample size is small or moderate.

Mapping and modulating spatial attention asymmetries in young and older adults

Healthy young adults demonstrate a group-level, systematic preference for stimuli presented in the left side of space relative to the right (‘pseudoneglect’) (Bowers & Heilman, 1980). This results in an overestimation of features such as size, brightness, numerosity and spatial frequency in the left hemispace, probably as a result of right cerebral hemisphere dominance for visuospatial attention. This spatial attention asymmetry is reduced in the healthy older population, and can be shifted entirely into right hemispace under certain conditions. Although this rightward shift has been consistently documented in behavioural experiments, there is very little neuroimaging evidence to explain this effect at a neuroanatomical level. In this thesis, I used behavioural methodology and electroencephalography (EEG) to map spatial attention asymmetries in young and older adults. I then use transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) to modulate these spatial biases, with the aim of assessing age-related differences in response to tDCS. In the first of three experiments presented in this thesis, I report in Chapter Two that five different spatial attention tasks provide consistent intra-task measures of spatial bias in young adults across two testing days. There were, however, no inter-task correlations between the five tasks, indicating that pseudoneglect is at least partially driven by task-dependent patterns of neural activity. In Chapter Three, anodal tDCS was applied separately to the left (P5) and right (P6) posterior parietal cortex (PPC) in young and older adults, with an aim to improve the detection of stimuli appearing in the contralateral visual field. There were no age differences in response to tDCS, but there were significant differences depending on baseline performance. Relative to a sham tDCS protocol, tDCS applied to the right PPC resulted in maintained visual detection across both visual fields in adults who were good at the task at baseline. In contrast, left PPC tDCS resulted in reduced detection sensitivity across both visual fields in poor performers. Finally, in Chapter Four, I report a right-hemisphere lateralisation of EEG activity in young adults that was present for long (but not short) landmark task lines. In contrast, older adults demonstrated no lateralised activity for either line length, thus providing novel evidence of an age-related reduction of hemispheric asymmetry in older adults. The results of this thesis provide evidence of a highly complex set of factors that underlie spatial attention asymmetries in healthy young and older adults.

Correcting for bias when estimating the cost of hospital-acquired infection : an analysis of lower respiratory tract infections in non-surgical patients

Hospital acquired infections (HAI) are costly but many are avoidable. Evaluating prevention programmes requires data on their costs and benefits. Estimating the actual costs of HAI (a measure of the cost savings due to prevention) is difficult as HAI changes cost by extending patient length of stay, yet, length of stay is a major risk factor for HAI. This endogeneity bias can confound attempts to measure accurately the cost of HAI. We propose a two-stage instrumental variables estimation strategy that explicitly controls for the endogeneity between risk of HAI and length of stay. We find that a 10% reduction in ex ante risk of HAI results in an expected savings of £693 ($US 984).

Error, Bias, and Long-Branch Attraction in Data for Two Chloroplast Photosystem Genes in Seed Plants

Sequences of two chloroplast photosystem genes, psaA and psbB, together comprising about 3,500 bp, were obtained for all five major groups of extant seed plants and several outgroups among other vascular plants. Strongly supported, but significantly conflicting, phylogenetic signals were obtained in parsimony analyses from partitions of the data into first and second codon positions versus third positions. In the former, both genes agreed on a monophyletic gymnosperms, with Gnetales closely related to certain conifers. In the latter, Gnetales are inferred to be the sister group of all other seed plants, with gymnosperms paraphyletic. None of the data supported the modern ‘‘anthophyte hypothesis,’’ which places Gnetales as the sister group of flowering plants. A series of simulation studies were undertaken to examine the error rate for parsimony inference. Three kinds of errors were examined: random error, systematic bias (both properties of finite data sets), and statistical inconsistency owing to long-branch attraction (an asymptotic property). Parsimony reconstructions were extremely biased for third-position data for psbB. Regardless of the true underlying tree, a tree in which Gnetales are sister to all other seed plants was likely to be reconstructed for these data. None of the combinations of genes or partitions permits the anthophyte tree to be reconstructed with high probability. Simulations of progressively larger data sets indicate the existence of long-branch attraction (statistical inconsistency) for third-position psbB data if either the anthophyte tree or the gymnosperm tree is correct. This is also true for the anthophyte tree using either psaA third positions or psbB first and second positions. A factor contributing to bias and inconsistency is extremely short branches at the base of the seed plant radiation, coupled with extremely high rates in Gnetales and nonseed plant outgroups. M. J. Sanderson,* M. F. Wojciechowski,*† J.-M. Hu,* T. Sher Khan,* and S. G. Brady

Towards a literacy of attention

In 1997, business trend analyst Linda Stone proposed the term "continuous partial attention" to characterise the contemporary experience of wanting to be ‘a live node on the network’. She argued that while it can be a positive and functional behaviour, it also has the potential to be disabling, compromising reflective and creative thought. Subsequent studies have explored the ways in which technology has slowly disrupted the idea and experience of a "centred" and "bounded" self. Studies of ‘Gen Y’ show the ease with which young people accommodate this multiplying of the self as they negotiate their partial friendships and networks of interest with family and work. In teaching and learning circles in tertiary education we talk a lot about problems of student ‘disengagement’. In characterising our challenge this way, are we undermining our potential to understand the tendencies of contemporary learners? This paper begins a consideration of how traditional models, frameworks and practices might oppose these partially engaged but continuously connected and interpersonal "dividuals". What questions does this provoke for learning environments towards harnessing yet counterpointing the crisis students might experience; to recognise but also integrate their multiple selves towards what they aim to become through the process of learning?

Nation & internation practices in decision support tools in road asset management

This document provides a review of international and national practices in investment decision support tools in road asset management. Efforts were concentrated on identifying analytic frameworks, evaluation methodologies and criteria adopted by current tools. Emphasis was also given to how current approaches support Triple Bottom Line decision-making. Benefit Cost Analysis and Multiple Criteria Analysis are principle methodologies in supporting decision-making in Road Asset Management. The complexity of the applications shows significant differences in international practices. There is continuing discussion amongst practitioners and researchers regarding to which one is more appropriate in supporting decision-making. It is suggested that the two approaches should be regarded as complementary instead of competitive means. Multiple Criteria Analysis may be particularly helpful in early stages of project development, say strategic planning. Benefit Cost Analysis is used most widely for project prioritisation and selecting the final project from amongst a set of alternatives. Benefit Cost Analysis approach is useful tool for investment decision-making from an economic perspective. An extension of the approach, which includes social and environmental externalities, is currently used in supporting Triple Bottom Line decision-making in the road sector. However, efforts should be given to several issues in the applications. First of all, there is a need to reach a degree of commonality on considering social and environmental externalities, which may be achieved by aggregating the best practices. At different decision-making level, the detail of consideration of the externalities should be different. It is intended to develop a generic framework to coordinate the range of existing practices. The standard framework will also be helpful in reducing double counting, which appears in some current practices. Cautions should also be given to the methods of determining the value of social and environmental externalities. A number of methods, such as market price, resource costs and Willingness to Pay, are found in the review. The use of unreasonable monetisation methods in some cases has discredited Benefit Cost Analysis in the eyes of decision makers and the public. Some social externalities, such as employment and regional economic impacts, are generally omitted in current practices. This is due to the lack of information and credible models. It may be appropriate to consider these externalities in qualitative forms in a Multiple Criteria Analysis. Consensus has been reached in considering noise and air pollution in international practices. However, Australia practices generally omitted these externalities. Equity is an important consideration in Road Asset Management. The considerations are either between regions, or social groups, such as income, age, gender, disable, etc. In current practice, there is not a well developed quantitative measure for equity issues. More research is needed to target this issue. Although Multiple Criteria Analysis has been used for decades, there is not a generally accepted framework in the choice of modelling methods and various externalities. The result is that different analysts are unlikely to reach consistent conclusions about a policy measure. In current practices, some favour using methods which are able to prioritise alternatives, such as Goal Programming, Goal Achievement Matrix, Analytic Hierarchy Process. The others just present various impacts to decision-makers to characterise the projects. Weighting and scoring system are critical in most Multiple Criteria Analysis. However, the processes of assessing weights and scores were criticised as highly arbitrary and subjective. It is essential that the process should be as transparent as possible. Obtaining weights and scores by consulting local communities is a common practice, but is likely to result in bias towards local interests. Interactive approach has the advantage in helping decision-makers elaborating their preferences. However, computation burden may result in lose of interests of decision-makers during the solution process of a large-scale problem, say a large state road network. Current practices tend to use cardinal or ordinal scales in measure in non-monetised externalities. Distorted valuations can occur where variables measured in physical units, are converted to scales. For example, decibels of noise converts to a scale of -4 to +4 with a linear transformation, the difference between 3 and 4 represents a far greater increase in discomfort to people than the increase from 0 to 1. It is suggested to assign different weights to individual score. Due to overlapped goals, the problem of double counting also appears in some of Multiple Criteria Analysis. The situation can be improved by carefully selecting and defining investment goals and criteria. Other issues, such as the treatment of time effect, incorporating risk and uncertainty, have been given scant attention in current practices. This report suggested establishing a common analytic framework to deal with these issues.

Why is there a gender gap in children presenting for Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder services?

This study addressed why girls are less likely to be referred for mental health services for attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) than boys. Ninety-six parents of children with elevated ADHD symptoms and 140 elementary school teachers read vignettes about children with ADHD. Half of the participants read vignettes with boys' names, and half read the same vignettes but with girls' names. Participants then rated their likeliness to seek or recommend services for the child in each vignette. Parents and teachers were less likely to seek or recommend services for girls than boys with ADHD, but results did not support the hypothesis that this is because girls are less disruptive than boys. Rather, differences in service seeking were explained by the fact that parents and teachers believed that learning assistance is less effective for girls than boys with ADHD.