Business Cycles and Seasonal Cycles in Bangladesh

The empirical regularities of the Bangladesh business and seasonal cycles are documented in this study. Spectrums, seasonality, volatility, cyclicality, and persistence in the level and variance of macroeconomic variables in Bangladesh are explored using monthly and quarterly macroeconomic series. Most of the features of U.S. and East-Southeast Asian business cycles are common to Bangladeshi business cycles; however, there are some differences. As is seen in the U.S. and European economies, seasonal cycles accentuate the features of business cycles in Bangladesh. To our surprise, the seasonal cycles in Bangladesh embody the features of business cycles in the U.S. and East-Southeast Asian economies more thoroughly than they do the business cycles in Bangladesh.

East Asia's Economic Development cum Trade "Divergence"

This paper addresses some salient features of how some of "successful" East Asian economies have been faring in terms of enhancing their export competitiveness. That export becomes more divergent in terms of its unit price as more technology-enhancing economic activity is undertaken within an economy, is the primary message that this study conveys. This is indeed what Schumpeter had addressed in conjunction with his "creative destruction" thesis. From this perspective, East Asia's export-led industrialization has been attained through a particular policy focus upon high "trade divergence" sectors underpinned by a generally high level of manufacturing flexibility. The experience of Malaysia's development serves as the strong case in point. As an East Asia-wide FTA is expected to facilitate "divergent" export-led industrialization through enhanced knowledge interaction, this dynamic or "divergent" impact that knowledge creation could exert should come to the fore of relevant policy arguments, together with static consideration of trade creation and diversion. A formal statistical test of the "divergence hypothesis" above is called for with a view to building upon this preliminary study.

Rules of Origin and Local Content in East Asia

Rules of Origin (RoO) are an integral part of all trade rules. In order to be eligible for Common Effective Preferential Tariffs (CEPT) under AFTA and similar arrangements under the ASEAN-China FTA, a product must satisfy the conditions relative to local content. The paper tries to calculate local content as well as cumulative local content in East Asian economies, with use of the Asian International Input-Output Tables; it also investigates factors of change in local content by applying decomposition analysis. The paper finds that the cumulation rule increased local content of the electronics industry more significantly than local content of the automotive industry, and the contribution of the cumulation rule increased in the period 1990-2000, due to rising dependency on neighboring ASEAN countries and China.

Procyclical Productivity and Returns-to-Scale in Philippine Manufacturing

The Philippines is regarded as a highly oligopolistic economy, and it is argued that this is a cause of the relative stagnation of the economy to neighbouring East Asian economies. This presumption might be associated with increasing returns to scale and market power, which are consistent with the procyclical total factor productivity that is observed in the Philippines and the United States. However, this study found no strong evidence supporting increasing returns for aggregate manufacturing and three-digit manufacturing industries during 1956-1980 in the Philippines, based on data constructed by Hooley (1985). Further, this study does not support external effect discussed in Caballero and Lyons (1992).

Industrialization in Indonesia since the 1970s

Introduction: During the period from the latter half of the 1980s until just before the Asian currency crisis in 1997, Indonesia’s economic development had drawn expectations and attention from various quarters, along with Malaysia and Thailand within the same Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). In fact, the 1993 report by the World Bank, entitled “East Asian Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy,” recognized Indonesia as one of the East Asian economies with the strong economic performance, i.e. sustained economic growth (World Bank [1993]). And it was the manufacturing industry that had been the driving force behind Indonesia’s economic growth during that period. Since the 1997 outbreak of the Asian currency crisis, however, the manufacturing sector in Indonesia has been mired in a situation that rules out the kind of bright prospects it had emanated previously. The Indonesian economy is still in the developing stage, and in accordance with the history of industrial structural changes in other countries, Indonesia’s manufacturing industry can still be expected to serve as the engine of the country’s economic development. But is it really possible in an environment where economic liberalization and globalization are forging ahead? And, what sort of problems have to be dealt with to make it possible? To answer these questions, it is necessary to know the current conditions of Indonesia’s manufacturing sector, and to do that, it becomes important to think back on the history of the country’s industrialization. Thus, this paper is intended to retrace and unlock the track of Indonesia’s industrialization up until the establishment of the manufacturing sector in its present form, with the ultimate goal being to give answers to the above-mentioned questions. Subject to an analysis in this paper is the period from the installment of President Soeharto’s administration onward when industrialization of the modern industrial sector2 moved into high gear. 　　　The composition of this paper is outlined below. Section 1 first shows why it is important to examine import substitution and export orientation, both of which are used as the measures of the analysis in this paper, in tracking the history of the industrialization, and then discuss indicators of import substitution and export orientation as well as statistical data and resources needed to develop those indicators. Section 2 clarifies the status of the manufacturing industry among all industries by looking at the composition ratio of the manufacturing industry in terms of value added, imports and exports. Section 3 to 5 cover three periods between 1971 and 1995 and make an analysis of import substitution, export orientation and changes in the industrial structure for each period. Section 3 analyzes the period from 1971 through 1985, when Indonesia pursued the import substitution policy amid the oil boom. Section 4 covers the period from 1985 through 1990, when the packages of deregulatory measures were announced successively under structural adjustment policies made necessary by the fall in oil prices. Section 5 examines the period from 1990 through 1995, which saw the alternate shifts between the overheating of the economy by sharply rising investment by both domestic and foreign investors in the wake of the liberalization of investment, trade and financial services, and polices to cool down the economy. Section 6, which covers the 1995-1999 period straddling the economic crisis, is designed for an analysis of the changes in production trends before and after the economic crisis as well as the changes in the industrial structure. Section 7, after summing up the history of Indonesia’s industrialization examined in the previous sections, discusses problems found in respective sectors and attempts to present future prospects for the country’s manufacturing industry.

Intra-regional trade between China, Japan, and Korea : before and after the financial crisis

East Asian economies have been heavily dependent on the U.S. and EU markets, especially for the export of final goods. Therefore, once the financial crisis hit Western economies hard, the East Asian economies lost their major markets.Their production networks then worked to the region's disadvantage and stifled industrial development.This reflects the vulnerability of the East Asian economies which have adopted an export-led growth strategy. Such vulnerability needs to be addressed to prevent future economic crises, as well as to sustain economic growth. This paper examines the trade structure of the three countries-China, Japan, and Korea-before and after the Lehman Shock, and discusses how the three countries should cooperate in addressing imbalances in the trade structure.

Industrial deepening in East Asia

Structural transformations are an indispensable element of sustained economic growth. Within the context of East Asia, this study focuses on industrial deepening, which refers to the formation of local linkages and the creation of a robust local supplier base. To investigate the progress of industrial deepening, this study introduces two kinds of domestic procurement measures in addition to the previously developed local content measures. Specifically, two kinds of vertical specialization measures are used to demonstrate the degree to which respective East Asian economies are specialized within their vertical production networks. The results clearly show that the advancement of production networks is likely to reduce domestic procurement ratios, even if local supplier bases are strengthened in the respective countries. Moreover, the trend of domestic procurement ratios differs depending on the characteristics of particular industries and the industrial policies adopted by individual countries.

Rulemaking in Super-RTAs: Implications for China and India. Bruegel Working Paper 2014/03, March 2014

The faltering Doha round has led to a renewed focus on large regional trade agreements. There are two super-RTAs in the making in the Asia-Pacific and one in the Atlantic, all with rather ambitious negotiation targets, and presented as alternate means to reset global trade rules and take the multilateral trade liberalisation agenda forward. So what does this development mean for large emerging markets such as China and India that are on the fringes of these regional trade negotiations? Can these agreements become alternate means of pressuring these Asian economies to follow new trade rules set by industrialised countries, especially given the progressive erosion of the policy dominance of industrialised countries and the strong dissenting voice of developing countries in the Doha Round? This paper examines how super-RTAs may emerge as game changers in the multilateral trading system as promulgated by the WTO, and the implications for China and India. The paper analyses the new economic governance system that is likely to emerge given the renewed interest in regionalism, and argues that while the super-RTAs will not be entirely benign in their impact on China and India, rather than forcing these economies to accept the higher new regulatory standards enshrined in the super-RTAs, a distinct possibility in the medium-term is the emergence and entrenchment of a dual regulatory regime in these economies.

Advanced Asia's health systems in comparison

There is growing interest in comparing patterns of social and health service development in advanced Asian economies. Most publications concentrate broadly on a range of core social services such as education, housing, social security and health care. In terms of those solely focused on health, most discuss arrangements in specific countries and territories. Some take a comparative approach, but are focused on presentation and discussion of expenditure, resourcing and service utilization data. This article extends the comparative analysis of advanced Asian health systems, considering the cases of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore. The article provides basic background information, and delves into common concerns among the world's health systems today including primary care organization, rationing and cost containment, service quality, and system integration. Conclusions include that problems exist in 'classifying' the five diverse systems; that the systems face common pressures; and that there are considerable opportunities to enhance primary care, service quality and system integration. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Industrial networks of the future:review of research and practice

Academic researchers have followed closely the interest of companies in establishing industrial networks by studying aspects such as social interaction and contractual relationships. But what patterns underlie the emergence of industrial networks and what support should research provide for practitioners? Firstly, it appears that manufacturing is becoming a commodity rather than a unique capability, which accounts especially for low-technology approaches in downstream parts of the network, for example in assembly operations. Secondly, the increased tendency towards specialization has forced other, upstream, parts of industrial networks to introduce advanced manufacturing technologies to supply niche markets. Thirdly, the capital market for investments in capacity, and the trade in manufacturing as a commodity, dominates resource allocation to a larger extent than previously was the case. Fourthly, there is a continuous move towards more loosely connected entities that comprise manufacturing networks. More traditional concepts, such as the “keiretsu” and “chaibol” networks of some Asian economies, do not sufficiently support the demands now being placed on networks. Research should address these four fundamental challenges to prepare for the industrial networks of 2020 and beyond.

A review of research and practice for the industrial networks of the future

Academic researchers have followed closely the interest of companies in establishing industrial networks by studying aspects such as social interaction and contractual relationships. But what patterns underlie the emergence of industrial networks and what support should research provide for practitioners? First, it appears that manufacturing is becoming a commodity rather than a unique capability, which accounts especially for low-technology approaches in downstream parts of the network, for example, in assembly operations. Second, the increased tendency towards specialisation has forced other, upstream, parts of industrial networks to introduce advanced manufacturing technologies for niche markets. Third, the capital market for investments in capacity, and the trade in manufacturing as a commodity, dominates resource allocation to a larger extent than was previously the case. Fourth, there is becoming a continuous move towards more loosely connected entities that comprise manufacturing networks. Finally, in these networks, concepts for supply chain management should address collaboration and information technology that supports decentralised decision-making, in particular to address sustainable and green supply chains. More traditional concepts, such as the keiretsu and chaibol networks of some Asian economies, do not sufficiently support the demands now being placed on networks. Research should address these five fundamental challenges to prepare for the industrial networks of 2020 and beyond. © 2010 Springer-Verlag London.

Creative Economies, Creative Cities: Asian-European Perspectives

Thirteen papers examine Asian and European experiences with developing national and city policy agendas around cultural and creative industries. Papers discuss policy transfer and the field of the cultural and creative industries--what can be learned from Europe; creative industries across cultural borders--the case of video games in Asia; spaces of culture and economy--mapping the cultural-creative cluster landscape; beyond networks and relations--toward rethinking creative cluster theory; the capital complex--Beijing's new creative clusters; the European creative class and regional development--how relevant Richard Florida's theory is for Europe; getting out of place--the mobile creative class taking on the local--a U.K. perspective on the creative class; Asian cities and limits to creative capital theory; the creative industries, governance, and economic development--a U.K. perspective; Shanghai's emergence into the global creative economy; Shanghai moderne--creative economy in a creative city?; urbanity as a political project--toward post-national European cities; and alternative policies in urban innovation. Contributors include economists. Kong is with the Department of Geography at the National University of Singapore. O'Connor is at Queensland University of Technology. Index.

Does oil price volatility matter for Asian emerging economies?

This article investigates the impact of oil price volatility on six major emerging economies in Asia using time-series cross-section and time-series econometric techniques. To assess the robustness of the findings, we further implement such heterogeneous panel data estimation methods as Mean Group (MG), Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG) and Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimators to allow for cross-sectional dependence. The empirical results reveal that oil price volatility has a detrimental effect on these emerging economies. In the short run, oil price volatility influenced output growth in China and affected both GDP growth and inflation in India. In the Philippines, oil price volatility impacted on inflation, but in Indonesia, it impacted on both GDP growth and inflation before and after the Asian financial crisis. In Malaysia, oil price volatility impacted on GDP growth, although there is notably little feedback from the opposite side. For Thailand, oil price volatility influenced output growth prior to the Asian financial crisis, but the impact disappeared after the crisis. It appears that oil subsidization by the Thai Government via introduction of the oil fund played a significant role in improving the economic performance by lessening the adverse effects of oil price volatility on macroeconomic indicators.

E-commerce environment and trade promotion for Latin America: policy implications from East Asian and advanced economies' experiences

Includes bibliography

Economic relations between Latin America and the high-performing Asian developing economies

Includes bibliography