Coherence between solar activity and the East Asian winter monsoon variability in the past 8000 years from Yangtze River-derived mud in the East China Sea

AMS(14)C dating and grain-size analysis for Core PC-6, located in the middle of a mud area on the inner shelf of the East China Sea (ECS), were used to rebuild the Holocene history of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). The 7.5-m core recorded the history of environmental changes during the postglacial transgression. The core's mud section (the upper 450 cm) has been formed mainly by suspended sediment delivered from the Yangtze River mouth by the ECS Winter Coastal Current (ECSWCC) since 7.6 kyr BP. Using a mathematical method called "grain size vs. standard deviatioW', we can divide the Core PC-6's grain-size distribution into two populations at about 28 mu m. The fine population (< 28 mu m) is considered to be transported by the ECSWCC as suspended loads. Content of the fine population changes little and represents a stable sedimentary environment in accord with the present situation. Thus, variation of mean grain-size from the fine population would reflect the strength of ECSWCC, which is mainly controlled by the East Asian winter monsoon. Abrupt increasing mean grain size in the mud section is inferred to be transported by sudden strengthened ECSWCC, which was caused by the strengthened EAWM. Thus, the high resolution mean grain-size variation might serve as a proxy for reconstruction of the EAWM. A good correlation between sunspot change and the mean grain-size of suspended fine population suggests that one of the primary controls on centennial- to decadal-scale changes of the EAWM in the past 8 ka is the variations of sun irradiance, i.e., the EAWM will increase in intensity when the number of sunspots decreases. Spectral analyses of the mean grain-size time series of Core PC-6 show statistically significant periodicities centering on 2463, 1368, 128, 106, 100, 88-91, 7678, and 70-72 years. The EAWM and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) agree with each other well on these cycles, and the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) and the Indian Monsoon also share in concurrent cycles in Holocene, which are in accord with the changes of the sun irradiance. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

EAWM-related air-sea-land interaction and the Asian summer monsoon circulation

Based on the data analysis, this study further explores the characteristics of East Asian winter monsoon (hereafter, EAWM, for brevity) as well as the related air-sea-land system, and illustrates how and to what degree anomalous signals of the subsequent Asian summer monsoon are rooted in the preceding EAWM activity. We identified an important air-sea coupled mode, i.e., the EAWM mode illustrated in Section 3. In cold seasons, strong EAWM-related air-sea two-way interaction is responsible for the development and persistence of the SSTA pattern of EAWM mode. As a consequence, the key regions, i.e., the western Pacific and South China Sea (hereafter, SCS, for brevity), are dominated by such an SSTA pattern from the winter to the following summer. In the strong EAWM years, the deficient snow cover dominates eastern Tibetan Plateau in winter, and in spring, this anomaly pattern is further strengthened and extended to the northwestern side of Tibetan Plateau. Thus, the combined effect of strong EAWM-related SSTA and Tibetan snow cover constitutes an important factor in modulating the Asian monsoon circulation. The active role of the EAWM activity as well as the related air-sea-land interaction would, in the subsequent seasons, lead to: 1) the enhancement of SCS monsoon and related stronger rainfall; 2) the northward displacement of subtropical high during Meiyu period and the related deficient rainfall over Meiyu rainband; 3) above-normal precipitation over the regions from northern Japan to northeastern China in summer; 4) more rainfall over the Arabian Sea and Northeast India, while less rainfall over southwest India and the Bay of Bengal. The strong EAWM-related air-sea interaction shows, to some degree, precursory signals to the following Asian summer monsoon. However, the mechanism for the variability of Indian summer monsoon subsequent to the strong EAWM years remains uncertain.

Response of the Asian summer monsoon to a weakening of Atlantic thermohaline circulation

Various paleoclimate records have shown that the Asian monsoon was punctuated by numerous suborbital time-scale events, and these events were coeval with those that happened in the North Atlantic. This study investigates the Asian summer monsoon responses to the Atlantic Ocean forcing by applying an additional freshwater flux into the North Atlantic. The simulated results indicate that the cold North Atlantic and warm South Atlantic induced by the weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) due to the freshwater flux lead to significantly suppressed Asian summer monsoon. The authors analyzed the detailed processes of the Atlantic Ocean forcing on the Asian summer monsoon, and found that the atmospheric teleconnection in the eastern and central North Pacific and the atmosphere-ocean interaction in the tropical North Pacific play the most crucial role. Enhanced precipitation in the subtropical North Pacific extends the effects of Atlantic Ocean forcing from the eastern Pacific into the western Pacific, and the atmosphere-ocean interaction in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean intensifies the circulation and precipitation anomalies in the Pacific and East Asia.

The effect of Arabian Sea optical properties on SST biases and the South Asian summer monsoon in a coupled GCM

This study examines the effect of seasonally varying chlorophyll on the climate of the Arabian Sea and South Asian monsoon. The effect of such seasonality on the radiative properties of the upper ocean is often a missing process in coupled general circulation models and its large amplitude in the region makes it a pertinent choice for study to determine any impact on systematic biases in the mean and seasonality of the Arabian Sea. In this study we examine the effects of incorporating a seasonal cycle in chlorophyll due to phytoplankton blooms in the UK Met Office coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM HadCM3. This is achieved by performing experiments in which the optical properties of water in the Arabian Sea - a key signal of the semi-annual cycle of phytoplankton blooms in the region - are calculated from a chlorophyll climatology derived from Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (SeaWiFS) data. The SeaWiFS chlorophyll is prescribed in annual mean and seasonally-varying experiments. In response to the chlorophyll bloom in late spring, biases in mixed layer depth are reduced by up to 50% and the surface is warmed, leading to increases in monsoon rainfall during the onset period. However when the monsoons are fully established in boreal winter and summer and there are strong surface winds and a deep mixed layer, biases in the mixed layer depth are reduced but the surface undergoes cooling. The seasonality of the response of SST to chlorophyll is found to depend on the relative depth of the mixed layer to that of the anomalous penetration depth of solar fluxes. Thus the inclusion of the effects of chlorophyll on radiative properties of the upper ocean acts to reduce biases in mixed layer depth and increase seasonality in SST.

The Asian summer monsoon: an intercomparison of CMIP5 vs. CMIP3 simulations of the late 20th century

The boreal summer Asian monsoon has been evaluated in 25 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5 (CMIP5) and 22 CMIP3 GCM simulations of the late 20th Century. Diagnostics and skill metrics have been calculated to assess the time-mean, climatological annual cycle, interannual variability, and intraseasonal variability. Progress has been made in modeling these aspects of the monsoon, though there is no single model that best represents all of these aspects of the monsoon. The CMIP5 multi-model mean (MMM) is more skillful than the CMIP3 MMM for all diagnostics in terms of the skill of simulating pattern correlations with respect to observations. Additionally, for rainfall/convection the MMM outperforms the individual models for the time mean, the interannual variability of the East Asian monsoon, and intraseasonal variability. The pattern correlation of the time (pentad) of monsoon peak and withdrawal is better simulated than that of monsoon onset. The onset of the monsoon over India is typically too late in the models. The extension of the monsoon over eastern China, Korea, and Japan is underestimated, while it is overestimated over the subtropical western/central Pacific Ocean. The anti-correlation between anomalies of all-India rainfall and Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature is overly strong in CMIP3 and typically too weak in CMIP5. For both the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection and the East Asian zonal wind-rainfall teleconnection, the MMM interannual rainfall anomalies are weak compared to observations. Though simulation of intraseasonal variability remains problematic, several models show improved skill at representing the northward propagation of convection and the development of the tilted band of convection that extends from India to the equatorial west Pacific. The MMM also well represents the space-time evolution of intraseasonal outgoing longwave radiation anomalies. Caution is necessary when using GPCP and CMAP rainfall to validate (1) the time-mean rainfall, as there are systematic differences over ocean and land between these two data sets, and (2) the timing of monsoon withdrawal over India, where the smooth southward progression seen in India Meteorological Department data is better realized in CMAP data compared to GPCP data.

Simulations of the impact of orbital forcing and ocean on the Asian summer monsoon during the Holocene

The importance of orbital forcing and ocean impact on the Asian summer monsoon in the Holocene is investigated by comparing simulations with a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (FOAM) and with the atmospheric component of this model (FSSTAM) forced with prescribed modern sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The results show: (1) the ocean amplifies the orbitally-induced increase in African monsoon precipitation, makes somewhat increase in southern India and damps the increase over the southeastern China. (2) The ocean could change the spatial distribution and local intensity of the orbitally-induced latitudinal atmospheric oscillation over the southeastern China and the subtropical western Pacific Ocean. (3) The orbital forcing mostly enhances the Asian summer precipitation in the FOAM and FSSTAM simulations. However, the ocean reduces the orbitally-induced summer precipitation and postpones the time of summer monsoon onset over the Asian monsoon region. (4) The orbital forcing considerably enhances the intensity of upper divergence, which is amplified by ocean further, over the eastern hemisphere. But the divergence is weaker in the FOAM simulations than in the FSSTAM simulations when the orbital forcing is fixed. (5) The orbital forcing can enhance the amplitude of precipitation variability over the subtropical Africa, the southeastern China and northwestern China, inversely, reduce it over central India and North China in the FOAM and FSSTAM simulations. The ocean obviously reduces the amplitude of precipitation variability over most of the Asian monsoon regions in the fixed orbital forcing simulations. (6) The areas characterized by increased summer precipitation in the long-term mean are mostly characterized by increased amplitude of short-term variability, whereas regions characterized by decreased precipitation are primarily characterized by decreased amplitude of short-term variability. However, the influences of orbital forcing or dynamical ocean on regional climate depend on the model.

Holocene variations in peatland methane cycling associated with the Asian summer monsoon system

Atmospheric methane concentrations decreased during the early to middle Holocene; however, the governing mechanisms remain controversial. Although it has been suggested that the mid-Holocene minimum methane emissions are associated with hydrological change, direct evidence is lacking. Here we report a new independent approach, linking hydrological change in peat sediments from the Tibetan Plateau to changes in archaeal diether concentrations and diploptene delta C-13 values as tracers for methanogenesis and methanotrophy, respectively. A minimum in inferred methanogenesis occurred during the mid-Holocene, which, locally, corresponds with the driest conditions of the Holocene, reflecting a minimum in Asian monsoon precipitation. The close coupling between precipitation and methanogenesis is validated by climate simulations, which also suggest a regionally widespread impact. Importantly, the minimum in methanogenesis is associated with a maximum in methanotrophy. Therefore, methane emissions in the Tibetan Plateau region were apparently lower during the mid-Holocene and partially controlled by interactions of large-scale atmospheric circulation.

Dynamics of ''internal'' interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon in a GCM

1] The poor predictability of the Indian summer monsoon ( ISM) appears to be due to the fact that a large fraction of interannual variability (IAV) is governed by unpredictable "internal'' low frequency variations. Mechanisms responsible for the internal IAV of the monsoon have not been clearly identified. Here, an attempt has been made to gain insight regarding the origin of internal IAV of the seasonal ( June - September, JJAS) mean rainfall from "internal'' IAV of the ISM simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) driven by fixed annual cycle of sea surface temperature (SST). The underlying hypothesis that monsoon ISOs are responsible for internal IAV of the ISM is tested. The spatial and temporal characteristics of simulated summer intraseasonal oscillations ( ISOs) are found to be in good agreement with those observed. A long integration with the AGCM forced with observed SST, shows that ISO activity over the Asian monsoon region is not modulated by the observed SST variations. The internal IAV of ISM, therefore, appears to be decoupled from external IAV. Hence, insight gained from this study may be useful in understanding the observed internal IAV of ISM. The spatial structure of the ISOs has a significant projection on the spatial structure of the seasonal mean and a common spatial mode governs both intraseasonal and interannual variability. Statistical average of ISO anomalies over the season ( seasonal ISO bias) strengthens or weakens the seasonal mean. It is shown that interannual anomalies of seasonal mean are closely related to the seasonal mean of intraseasonal anomalies and explain about 50% of the IAV of the seasonal mean. The seasonal mean ISO bias arises partly due to the broad-band nature of the ISO spectrum allowing the time series to be aperiodic over the season and partly due to a non-linear process where the amplitude of ISO activity is proportional to the seasonal bias of ISO anomalies. The later relation is a manifestation of the binomial character of rainfall time series. The remaining 50% of the IAV may arise due to land-surface processes, interaction between high frequency variability and ISOs, etc.

A physical mechanism for North Atlantic SST influence on the Indian summer monsoon

A link between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and multidecadal variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is unraveled and a long sought physical mechanism linking Atlantic climate and monsoon has been identified. The AMO produces persistent weakening (strengthening) of the meridional gradient of tropospheric temperature (TT) by setting up negative (positive) TT anomaly over Eurasia during northern late summer/autumn resulting in early (late) withdrawal of the south west monsoon and persistent decrease (increase) of seasonal monsoon rainfall. On inter-annual time scales, strong North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or North Annular mode (NAM) influences the monsoon by producing similar TT anomaly over Eurasia. The AMO achieves the interdecadal modulation of the monsoon by modulating the frequency of occurrence of strong NAO/NAM events. This mechanism also provides a basis for explaining the observed teleconnection between North Atlantic temperature and the Asian monsoon in paleoclimatic proxies. Citation: Goswami, B. N., M. S. Madhusoodanan, C. P. Neema, and D. Sengupta (2006), A physical mechanism for North Atlantic SST influence on the Indian summer monsoon

A study of vertical cloud structure of the Indian summer monsoon using CloudSat data

Precise specification of the vertical distribution of cloud optical properties is important to reduce the uncertainty in quantifying the radiative impacts of clouds. The new global observations of vertical profiles of clouds from the CloudSat mission provide opportunities to describe cloud structures and to improve parameterization of clouds in the weather and climate prediction models. In this study, four years (2007-2010) of observations of vertical structure of clouds from the CloudSat cloud profiling radar have been used to document the mean vertical structure of clouds associated with the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and its intra-seasonal variability. Active and break monsoon spells associated with the intra-seasonal variability of ISM have been identified by an objective criterion. For the present analysis, we considered CloudSat derived column integrated cloud liquid and ice water, and vertically profiles of cloud liquid and ice water content. Over the South Asian monsoon region, deep convective clouds with large vertical extent (up to 14 km) and large values of cloud water and ice content are observed over the north Bay of Bengal. Deep clouds with large ice water content are also observed over north Arabian Sea and adjoining northwest India, along the west coast of India and the south equatorial Indian Ocean. The active monsoon spells are characterized by enhanced deep convection over the Bay of Bengal, west coast of India and northeast Arabian Sea and suppressed convection over the equatorial Indian Ocean. Over the Bay of Bengal, cloud liquid water content and ice water content is enhanced by similar to 90 and similar to 200 % respectively during the active spells. An interesting feature associated with the active spell is the vertical tilting structure of positive CLWC and CIWC anomalies over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, which suggests a pre-conditioning process for the northward propagation of the boreal summer intra-seasonal variability. It is also observed that during the break spells, clouds are not completely suppressed over central India. Instead, clouds with smaller vertical extent (3-5 km) are observed due to the presence of a heat low type of circulation. The present results will be useful for validating the vertical structure of clouds in weather and climate prediction models.

Effects of large-scale deforestation on precipitation in the monsoon regions: Remote versus local effects

In this paper, using idealized climate model simulations, we investigate the biogeophysical effects of large-scale deforestation on monsoon regions. We find that the remote forcing from large-scale deforestation in the northern middle and high latitudes shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward. This results in a significant decrease in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions (East Asia, North America, North Africa, and South Asia) and moderate precipitation increases in the Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions (South Africa, South America, and Australia). The magnitude of the monsoonal precipitation changes depends on the location of deforestation, with remote effects showing a larger influence than local effects. The South Asian Monsoon region is affected the most, with 18% decline in precipitation over India. Our results indicate that any comprehensive assessment of afforestation/reforestation as climate change mitigation strategies should carefully evaluate the remote effects on monsoonal precipitation alongside the large local impacts on temperatures.

Nong Thale Pron - a key site from southern Thailand for studying monsoon variability during the past 15000 years

Studies of marine sediments, cave speleothemes, annually laminated corals, and tree rings from Asian monsoon regions have added knowledge to our understanding of the factors that control inter-annual to millennial monsoon variability in the past and have provided important constraints for climate modeling scenarios. In contrast, the spatial and temporal pattern of sub-millennial scale monsoon variability and its impact on land cover in SE Asia are still unresolved. This shortcoming stems from the fact that temporally well-resolved paleo-environmental studies are missing from large parts of SE Asia, especially from Thailand. Given that global and regional climate models are increasingly using terrestrial paleo- data to test their performance, past changes in land cover are therefore important variables to better understand feedbacks between different Earth systems. We obtained sediments from Lake Nong Thale Pron, in southern Thailand (8º 10`N, 99 º23`E; 380 m.asl). The aim of our study is to reconstruct lake status changes and to evaluate whether the extent of these changes are linked to known shifts in monsoon intensity and variability. Preliminary results show that lake infilling started more than 15,000 years ago and that the sediments cover the last deglaciation and the Holocene. Current analyses include Itrax XRF core scanning, loss-on-ignition (LOI at 950 and 550ºC), CN elemental and isotopic composition. We expect that our results will be able to give a picture of how the lake's status has changed over time and whether the extent of these changes is linked to known shifts in monsoon intensity and variability.

A Diagnostic and Modeling Study on the Onset of Summer Monsoon over South Asia

This study focuses on the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala. India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been using a semi-objective method to define monsoon onset. The main objectives of the study are to understand the monsoon onset processes, to simulate monsoon onset in a GCM using as input the atmospheric conditions and Sea Surface Temperature, 10 days earlier to the onset, to develop a method for medium range prediction of the date of onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala and to examine the possibility of objectively defining the date of Monsoon Onset over Kerala (MOK). It gives a broad description of regional monsoon systems and monsoon onsets over Asia and Australia. Asian monsoon includes two separate subsystems, Indain monsoon and East Asian monsoon. It is seen from this study that the duration of the different phases of the onset process are dependent on the period of ISO. Based on the study of the monsoon onset process, modeling studies can be done for better understanding of the ocean-atmosphere interaction especially those associated with the warm pool in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.

Sea Surface Temperature-Convection Relationship in Tropical Oceans with Special Emphasis to Intraseasonal Variability of Indian Summer Monsoon

The SST convection relation over tropical ocean and its impact on the South Asian monsoon is the first part of this thesis. Understanding the complicated relation between SST and convection is important for better prediction of the variability of the Indian monsoon in subseasonal, seasonal, interannual, and longer time scales. Improved global data sets from satellite scatterometer observations of SST, precipitation and refined reanalysis of global wind fields have made it possible to do a comprehensive study of the SST convection relation. Interaction of the monsoon and Indian ocean has been discussed. A coupled feedback process between SST and the Active-Break cycle of the Asian summer monsoon is a central theme of the thesis. The relation between SST and convection is very important in the field of numerical modeling of tropical rainfall. It is well known that models generally do very well simulating rainfall in areas of tropical convergence zones but are found unable to do satisfactory simulation in the monsoon areas. Thus in this study we critically examined the different mechanisms of generation of deep convection over these two distinct regions.The study reported in chapter 3 has shown that SST - convection relation over the warm pool regions of Indian and west Pacific oceans (monsoon areas) is in such a way that convection increases with SST in the SST range 26-29 C and for SST higher than 29-30 C convection decreases with increase of SST (it is called Waliser type). It is found that convection is induced in areas with SST gradients in the warm pool areas of Indian and west Pacific oceans. Once deep convection is initiated in the south of the warmest region of warm pool, the deep tropospheric heating by the latent heat released in the convective clouds produces strong low level wind fields (Low level Jet - LLJ) on the equatorward side of the warm pool and both the convection and wind are found to grow through a positive feedback process. Thus SST through its gradient acts only as an initiator of convection. The central region of the warm pool has very small SST gradients and large values of convection are associated with the cyclonic vorticity of the LLJ in the atmospheric boundary layer. The conditionally unstable atmosphere in the tropics is favorable for the production of deep convective clouds.