Impact numbers: measures of risk factor impact on the whole population from case-control and cohort studies

Objective: To describe new measures of risk from case-control and cohort studies, which are simple to understand and relate to numbers of the population at risk. Design: Theoretical development of new measures of risk. Setting: Review of literature and previously described measures. Main results: The new measures are: (1) the population impact number (PIN), the number of those in the whole population among whom one case is attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable risk),- (2) the case impact number (CIN) the number of people with the disease or outcome for whom one case will be attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable fraction); (3) the exposure impact number (EIN) the number of people with the exposure among whom one excess case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the attributable risk); (4) the exposed cases impact number (ECIN) the number of exposed cases among whom one case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the aetiological fraction). The impact number reflects the number of people in each population (the whole population, the cases, all those exposed, and the exposed cases) among whom one case is attributable to the particular risk factor. Conclusions: These new measures should help communicate the impact on a population, of estimates of risk derived from cohort or case-control studies.

Impact numbers in health policy decisions

Objective: To outline the major methodological issues appropriate to the use of the population impact number (PIN) and the disease impact number (DIN) in health policy decision making. Design: Review of literature and calculation of PIN and DIN statistics in different settings. Setting: Previously proposed extensions to the number needed to treat (NNT): the DIN and the PIN, which give a population perspective to this measure. Main results: The PIN and DIN allow us to compare the population impact of different interventions either within the same disease or in different diseases or conditions. The primary studies used for relative risk estimates should have outcomes, time periods and comparison groups that are congruent and relevant to the local setting. These need to be combined with local data on disease rates and population size. Depending on the particular problem, the target may be disease incidence or prevalence and the effects of interest may be either the incremental impact or the total impact of each intervention. For practical application, it will be important to use sensitivity analyses to determine plausible intervals for the impact numbers. Conclusions: Attention to various methodological issues will permit the DIN and PIN to be used to assist health policy makers assign a population perspective to measures of risk.

Fast, scalable master equation solution algorithms. IV. Lanczos iteration with diffusion approximation preconditioned iterative inversion

In this paper we propose a second linearly scalable method for solving large master equations arising in the context of gas-phase reactive systems. The new method is based on the well-known shift-invert Lanczos iteration using the GMRES iteration preconditioned using the diffusion approximation to the master equation to provide the inverse of the master equation matrix. In this way we avoid the cubic scaling of traditional master equation solution methods while maintaining the speed of a partial spectral decomposition. The method is tested using a master equation modeling the formation of propargyl from the reaction of singlet methylene with acetylene, proceeding through long-lived isomerizing intermediates. (C) 2003 American Institute of Physics.

Fast, scalable master equation solution algorithms. III. Direct time propagation accelerated by a diffusion approximation preconditioned iterative solver

In this paper we propose a novel fast and linearly scalable method for solving master equations arising in the context of gas-phase reactive systems, based on an existent stiff ordinary differential equation integrator. The required solution of a linear system involving the Jacobian matrix is achieved using the GMRES iteration preconditioned using the diffusion approximation to the master equation. In this way we avoid the cubic scaling of traditional master equation solution methods and maintain the low temperature robustness of numerical integration. The method is tested using a master equation modelling the formation of propargyl from the reaction of singlet methylene with acetylene, proceeding through long lived isomerizing intermediates. (C) 2003 American Institute of Physics.

Calculation of bound and resonance states of HO2 for nonzero total angular momentum

Bound and resonance states of HO2 have been calculated quantum mechanically by the Lanczos homogeneous filter diagonalization method [Zhang and Smith, Phys. Chem. Chem. Phys. 3, 2282 (2001); J. Chem. Phys. 115, 5751 (2001)] for nonzero total angular momentum J = 1,2,3. For lower bound states, agreement between the results in this paper and previous work is quite satisfactory; while for high lying bound states and resonances these are the first reported results. A helicity quantum number V assignment (within the helicity conserving approximation) is performed and the results indicate that for lower bound states it is possible to assign the V quantum numbers unambiguously, but for resonances it is impossible to assign the V helicity quantum numbers due to strong mixing. In fact, for the high-lying bound states, the mixing has already appeared. These results indicate that the helicity conserving approximation is not good for the resonance state calculations and exact quantum calculations are needed to accurately describe the reaction dynamics for HO2 system. Analysis of the resonance widths shows that most of the resonances are overlapping and the interferences between them lead to large fluctuations from one resonance to another. In accord with the conclusions from earlier J = 0 calculations, this indicates that the dissociation of HO2 is essentially irregular. (C) 2003 American Institute of Physics.

Nutritional effects on neuron numbers

Undemutrition during early life is known to cause deficits and distortions of brain structure although it has remained uncertain whether or not this includes a diminution of the total numbers of neurons. Estimates of numerical density (e.g. number of cells per microscopic field, or number of cells per unit area of section, or number of cells per unit volume of tissue) are extremely difficult to interpret and do not provide estimates of total numbers of cells. However, advances in stereological techniques have made it possible to obtain unbiased estimates of total numbers of cells in well defined biological structures. These methods have been utilised in studies to determine the effects of varying periods of undernutrition during early life on the numbers of neurons in various regions of the rat brain. The regions examined so far have included the cerebellum, the dentate gyrus, the olfactory bulbs and the cerebral cortex. The only region to show, unequivocally, that a period of undernutrition during early life causes a deficit in the number of neurons was the dentate gyrus. These findings are discussed in the context of other morphological and functional deficits present in undernourished animals.

A reduced load approximation accounting for link interactions in a loss network

This paper is concerned with evaluating the performance of loss networks. Accurate determination of loss network performance can assist in the design and dimen- sioning of telecommunications networks. However, exact determination can be difficult and generally cannot be done in reasonable time. For these reasons there is much interest in developing fast and accurate approximations. We develop a reduced load approximation that improves on the famous Erlang fixed point approximation (EFPA) in a variety of circumstances. We illustrate our results with reference to a range of networks for which the EFPA may be expected to perform badly.

Phase diagrams of binary mixtures of patchy colloids with distinct numbers and types of patches: Theempty fluid regime

We investigate the effect of distinct bonding energies on the onset of criticality of low functionality fluid mixtures. We focus on mixtures ofparticles with two and three patches as this includes the mixture where "empty" fluids were originally reported. In addition to the number of patches, thespecies differ in the type of patches or bonding sites. For simplicity, we consider that the patches on each species are identical: one species has threepatches of type A and the other has two patches of type B. We have found a rich phase behavior with closed miscibility gaps, liquid-liquid demixing, and negative azeotropes. Liquid-liquid demixing was found to pre-empt the "empty" fluid regime, of these mixtures, when the AB bonds are weaker than the AA or BB bonds. By contrast, mixtures in this class exhibit "empty" fluid behavior when the AB bonds are stronger than at least one of the other two. Mixtureswith bonding energies epsilon(BB) = epsilon(AB) and epsilon(AA) < epsilon(BB), were found to exhibit an unusual negative azeotrope. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3561396]

Microscopic Theory of Anchoring Transitions at the Surfaces of Pure Liquid-Crystals and their Mixtures .1. The Fowler Approximation

We have generalized earlier work on anchoring of nematic liquid crystals by Sullivan, and Sluckin and Poniewierski, in order to study transitions which may occur in binary mixtures of nematic liquid crystals as a function of composition. Microscopic expressions have been obtained for the anchoring energy of (i) a liquid crystal in contact with a solid aligning surface; (ii) a liquid crystal in contact with an immiscible isotropic medium; (iii) a liquid crystal mixture in contact with a solid aligning surface. For (iii), possible phase diagrams of anchoring angle versus dopant concentration have been calculated using a simple liquid crystal model. These exhibit some interesting features including re-entrant conical anchoring, for what are believed to be realistic values of the molecular parameters. A way of relaxing the most drastic approximation implicit in the above approach is also briefly discussed.

Radiatively induced Lorentz and CPT violation in Schwinger constant field approximation

The Schwinger proper-time method is an effective calculation method, explicitly gauge-invariant and nonperturbative. We make use of this method to investigate the radiatively induced Lorentz- and CPT-violating effects in quantum electrodynamics when an axial-vector interaction term is introduced in the fermionic sector. The induced Lorentz- and CPT-violating Chern-Simons term coincides with the one obtained using a covariant derivative expansion but differs from the result usually obtained in other regularization schemes. A possible ambiguity in the approach is also discussed. (C) 2001 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Optimal approximation of fractional derivatives through discrete-time fractions using genetic algorithms

This study addresses the optimization of rational fraction approximations for the discrete-time calculation of fractional derivatives. The article starts by analyzing the standard techniques based on Taylor series and Padé expansions. In a second phase the paper re-evaluates the problem in an optimization perspective by tacking advantage of the flexibility of the genetic algorithms.

Delay approximation of fractional integrals

This paper explores the calculation of fractional integrals by means of the time delay operator. The study starts by reviewing the memory properties of fractional operators and their relationship with time delay. Based on the time response of the Mittag-Leffler function an approximation of fractional integrals consisting of time delayed samples is proposed. The tuning of the approximation is optimized by means of a genetic algorithm. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the new perspective and the limits of their application.

Hepatitis C viral load does not predict disease outcome: going beyond numbers

The analysis of 58 patients with chronic hepatitis C without cirrhosis and treated with interferon-alpha demonstrated that hepatitis C viral (HCV) load does not correlate with the histological evolution of the disease (p = 0.6559 for architectural alterations and p = 0.6271 for the histological activity index). Therefore, the use of viral RNA quantification as an evolutive predictor or determinant of the severity of hepatitis C is incorrect and of relative value. A review of the literature provided fundamental and interdependent HCV (genotype, heterogeneity and mutants, specific proteins), host (sex, age, weight, etc) and treatment variables (dosage, time of treatment, type of interferon) within the broader context of viral kinetics, interferon-mediated immunological response (in addition to natural immunity against HCV) and the role of interferon as a modulator of fibrogenesis. Therefore, viral load implies much more than numbers and the correct interpretation of these data should consider a broader context depending on multiple factors that are more complex than the simple value obtained upon quantification.