Modeling dynamic demand response using Monte Carlo simulation and interval mathematics for boundary estimation

With the rapid development of various technologies and applications in smart grid implementation, demand response has attracted growing research interests because of its potentials in enhancing power grid reliability with reduced system operation costs. This paper presents a new demand response model with elastic economic dispatch in a locational marginal pricing market. It models system economic dispatch as a feedback control process, and introduces a flexible and adjustable load cost as a controlled signal to adjust demand response. Compared with the conventional “one time use” static load dispatch model, this dynamic feedback demand response model may adjust the load to a desired level in a finite number of time steps and a proof of convergence is provided. In addition, Monte Carlo simulation and boundary calculation using interval mathematics are applied for describing uncertainty of end-user's response to an independent system operator's expected dispatch. A numerical analysis based on the modified Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland power pool five-bus system is introduced for simulation and the results verify the effectiveness of the proposed model. System operators may use the proposed model to obtain insights in demand response processes for their decision-making regarding system load levels and operation conditions.

Assessing the significance of climate and community factors on urban water demand

Ensuring adequate water supply to urban areas is a challenging task due to factors such as rapid urban growth, increasing water demand and climate change. In developing a sustainable water supply system, it is important to identify the dominant water demand factors for any given water supply scheme. This paper applies principal components analysis to identify the factors that dominate residential water demand using the Blue Mountains Water Supply System in Australia as a case study. The results show that the influence of community intervention factors (e.g. use of water efficient appliances and rainwater tanks) on water demand are among the most significant. The result also confirmed that the community intervention programmes and water pricing policy together can play a noticeable role in reducing the overall water demand. On the other hand, the influence of rainfall on water demand is found to be very limited, while temperature shows some degree of correlation with water demand. The results of this study would help water authorities to plan for effective water demand management strategies and to develop a water demand forecasting model with appropriate climatic factors to achieve sustainable water resources management. The methodology developed in this paper can be adapted to other water supply systems to identify the influential factors in water demand modelling and to devise an effective demand management strategy.

Structural studies of model peptides containing beta-, gamma- and delta-amino acids

The crystal structures of five model peptides Piv-Pro-Gly-NHMe (1), Piv-Pro-beta Gly-NHMe (2), Piv-Pro-beta Gly-OMe (3), Piv-Pro-delta Ava-OMe (4) and Boc-Pro-gamma Abu-OH (5) are described (Piv:pivaloyl; NHMe: N-methylamide; beta Gly:beta-glycine; OMe:O-methyl ester; delta Ava:delta-aminovaleric acid; gamma Abu:gamma-aminobutyric acid). A comparison of the structures of peptides 1 and 2 illustrates the dramatic consequences upon backbone homologation in short sequences. 1 adopts a type II beta-turn conformation in the solid state, while in 2, the molecule adopts an open conformation with the beta-residue being fully extended. Piv-Pro-beta Gly-OMe (3), which differs from 2 by replacement of the C-terminal NH group by an O-atom, adopts an almost identical molecular conformation and packing arrangement in the solid state. In peptide 4, the observed conformation resembles that determined for 2 and 3, with the delta Ava residue being fully extended. In peptide 5, the molecule undergoes a chain reversal, revealing a beta-turn mimetic structure stabilized by a C-H center dot center dot center dot O hydrogen bond.

Basin Scale Water Resources Systems Modeling Under Cascading Uncertainties

Global change in climate and consequent large impacts on regional hydrologic systems have, in recent years, motivated significant research efforts in water resources modeling under climate change. In an integrated future hydrologic scenario, it is likely that water availability and demands will change significantly due to modifications in hydro-climatic variables such as rainfall, reservoir inflows, temperature, net radiation, wind speed and humidity. An integrated regional water resources management model should capture the likely impacts of climate change on water demands and water availability along with uncertainties associated with climate change impacts and with management goals and objectives under non-stationary conditions. Uncertainties in an integrated regional water resources management model, accumulating from various stages of decision making include climate model and scenario uncertainty in the hydro-climatic impact assessment, uncertainty due to conflicting interests of the water users and uncertainty due to inherent variability of the reservoir inflows. This paper presents an integrated regional water resources management modeling approach considering uncertainties at various stages of decision making by an integration of a hydro-climatic variable projection model, a water demand quantification model, a water quantity management model and a water quality control model. Modeling tools of canonical correlation analysis, stochastic dynamic programming and fuzzy optimization are used in an integrated framework, in the approach presented here. The proposed modeling approach is demonstrated with the case study of the Bhadra Reservoir system in Karnataka, India.

Evaluating the Role of Energy Efficiency Labels: the Case of Dish Washers

27 p.

Changes in consumer tastes in the demand for fish and meat in Malaysia

In this article the demand for fish and its substitute was estimated using a very flexible demand function, the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) developed by Deaton and Muelllbaeur (1980), incorporating the habit formation variable to measure the impact of the changes in tastes in comsumer demand for fish and meat products from 1960 to 1990 in Malaysia. Information on price and income elasticities for these meat groups was also obtained. To incorporate consumption habit variables, the dynamic translating procedure proposed by Pollak (1970) and Pollak and Wales (1981) has been adopted. The overall results of the maximum likelihood estimates of the dynamic AIDS model are quite good where 19 of 30 coefficients are significantly different from zero and the minimum budget shares, the constant, are between zero and one for each meat type. Consumers tend to purchase and consume fish, chicken, and pork almost daily. Beef and mutton are only consumed occassionally since they are relatively more expensive. This finding is consistent with the trend observed in the per capita consumption and budget share where fish, chicken, and pork tended to dominate over beef and mutton from 1960 to 1990.

The evolution of cooperation in asymmetric systems

Explaining "Tragedy of the Commons" of evolution of cooperation remains one of the greatest problems for both biology and social science. Asymmetrical interaction, which is one of the most important characteristics of cooperative system, has not been sufficiently considered in the existing models of the evolution of cooperation. Considering the inequality in the number and payoff between the cooperative actors and recipients in cooperation systems, discriminative density-dependent interference competition will occur in limited dispersal systems. Our model and simulation show that the local but not the global stability of a cooperative interaction can be maintained if the utilization of common resource remains unsaturated, which can be achieved by density-dependent restraint or competition among the cooperative actors. More intense density dependent interference competition among the cooperative actors and the ready availability of the common resource, with a higher intrinsic contribution ratio of a cooperative actor to the recipient, will increase the probability of cooperation. The cooperation between the recipient and the cooperative actors can be transformed into conflict and, it oscillates chaotically with variations of the affecting factors under different environmental or ecological conditions. The higher initial relatedness (i.e. similar to kin or reciprocity relatedness), which is equivalent to intrinsic contribution ratio of a cooperative actor to the recipient, can be selected for by penalizing less cooperative or cheating actors but rewarding cooperative individuals in asymmetric systems. The initial relatedness is a pivot but not the aim of evolution of cooperation. This explains well the direct conflict observed in almost all cooperative systems.

Spray flame study using a model gas turbine swirl burner

A model gas turbine burner was employed to investigate spray flames established under globally lean, continuous, swirling conditions. Two types of fuel were used to generate liquid spray flames: palm biodiesel and Jet-A1. The main swirling air flow was preheated to 350°C prior to mixing with airblast-atomized fuel droplets at atmospheric pressure. The global flame structure of flame and flow field were investigated at the fixed power output of 6 kW. Flame chemiluminescence imaging technique was employed to investigate the flame reaction zones, while particle imaging velocimetry (PIV) was utilized to measure the flow field within the combustor. The flow fields of both flames are almost identical despite some differences in the flame reaction zones. © (2013) Trans Tech Publications, Switzerland.

Empirical analysis and improved modelling of natural gas demand in Ireland

Countries across the world are being challenged to decarbonise their energy systems in response to diminishing fossil fuel reserves, rising GHG emissions and the dangerous threat of climate change. There has been a renewed interest in energy efficiency, renewable energy and low carbon energy as policy‐makers seek to identify and put in place the most robust sustainable energy system that can address this challenge. This thesis seeks to improve the evidence base underpinning energy policy decisions in Ireland with a particular focus on natural gas, which in 2011 grew to have a 30% share of Ireland’s TPER. Natural gas is used in all sectors of the Irish economy and is seen by many as a transition fuel to a low-carbon energy system; it is also a uniquely excellent source of data for many aspects of energy consumption. A detailed decomposition analysis of natural gas consumption in the residential sector quantifies many of the structural drives of change, with activity (R2 = 0.97) and intensity (R2 = 0.69) being the best explainers of changing gas demand. The 2002 residential building regulations are subject to an ex-post evaluation, which using empirical data finds a 44 ±9.5% shortfall in expected energy savings as well as a 13±1.6% level of non-compliance. A detailed energy demand model of the entire Irish energy system is presented together with scenario analysis of a large number of energy efficiency policies, which show an aggregate reduction in TFC of 8.9% compared to a reference scenario. The role for natural gas as a transition fuel over a long time horizon (2005-2050) is analysed using an energy systems model and a decomposition analysis, which shows the contribution of fuel switching to natural gas to be worth 12 percentage points of an overall 80% reduction in CO2 emissions. Finally, an analysis of the potential for CCS in Ireland finds gas CCS to be more robust than coal CCS for changes in fuel prices, capital costs and emissions reduction and the cost optimal location for a gas CCS plant in Ireland is found to be in Cork with sequestration in the depleted gas field of Kinsale.

Parallel mesh partitioning on distributed memory systems

The problem of deriving parallel mesh partitioning algorithms for mapping unstructured meshes to parallel computers is discussed in this chapter. In itself this raises a paradox - we seek to find a high quality partition of the mesh, but to compute it in parallel we require a partition of the mesh. In fact, we overcome this difficulty by deriving an optimisation strategy which can find a high quality partition even if the quality of the initial partition is very poor and then use a crude distribution scheme for the initial partition. The basis of this strategy is to use a multilevel approach combined with local refinement algorithms. Three such refinement algorithms are outlined and some example results presented which show that they can produce very high global quality partitions, very rapidly. The results are also compared with a similar multilevel serial partitioner and shown to be almost identical in quality. Finally we consider the impact of the initial partition on the results and demonstrate that the final partition quality is, modulo a certain amount of noise, independent of the initial partition.

Dynamic pricing model and algorithm for perishable products with fuzzy demand (ABS 2* Journal)

This paper studies the dynamic pricing problem of selling fixed stock of perishable items over a finite horizon, where the decision maker does not have the necessary historic data to estimate the distribution of uncertain demand, but has imprecise information about the quantity demand. We model this uncertainty using fuzzy variables. The dynamic pricing problem based on credibility theory is formulated using three fuzzy programming models, viz.: the fuzzy expected revenue maximization model, a-optimistic revenue maximization model, and credibility maximization model. Fuzzy simulations for functions with fuzzy parameters are given and embedded into a genetic algorithm to design a hybrid intelligent algorithm to solve these three models. Finally, a real-world example is presented to highlight the effectiveness of the developed model and algorithm.

A Hydrodynamic Modelling Framework for Strangford Lough Part 1: Tidal Model

Hydrodynamic models are a powerful tool that can be used by a wide range of end users to assist in predicting the effects of both physical and biological processes on local environmental conditions. This paper describes the development of a tidal model for Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland, a body of water renowned for the location of the first grid-connected tidal turbine, SeaGen, as well as the UK’s third Marine Nature Reserve. Using MIKE 21 modelling software, the development, calibration and performance of the modelare described in detail. Strangford Lough has a complex flow pattern with high flows through the Narrows (~3.5 m/s) linking the main body of the Lough to the Irish Sea and intricate flow patterns around the numerous islands. With the aid of good quality tidal and current data obtained throughout the Lough during the model development, the surface elevation and current magnitude between the observed and numerical model were almost identical with model skill >0.98 and >0.84 respectively. The applicability of the model is such that it can be used as an important tool for the prediction of important ecological processes as well as engineering applications within Strangford Lough.

Regional consumption of antibiotics : a demand system approach

Through this paper. we have attempted to model the demand for different classes of antibiotics used for respiratory infections in outpatient care in Switzerland using a spatial version of the linear approximate Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model. This model takes spatial dependency into account by means of spatial lags of antibiotic budget shares. We control for the health status of patients and the potential harmful effects of antibiotic use in terms of bacterial resistance. Elasticities to socioeconomic determinants of consumption and own- and cross-price elasticities between different groups of antibiotic have also been computed in this paper. Significant cross-price elasticities are found between newer or more expensive generations and older or less expensive generations of antibiotics. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk Aversion in Inventory Management

Traditional inventory models focus on risk-neutral decision makers, i.e., characterizing replenishment strategies that maximize expected total profit, or equivalently, minimize expected total cost over a planning horizon. In this paper, we propose a framework for incorporating risk aversion in multi-period inventory models as well as multi-period models that coordinate inventory and pricing strategies. In each case, we characterize the optimal policy for various measures of risk that have been commonly used in the finance literature. In particular, we show that the structure of the optimal policy for a decision maker with exponential utility functions is almost identical to the structure of the optimal risk-neutral inventory (and pricing) policies. Computational results demonstrate the importance of this approach not only to risk-averse decision makers, but also to risk-neutral decision makers with limited information on the demand distribution.

Time patterns in UK demand for alcohol and tobacco: an application of the EM algorithm

Capturing the pattern of structural change is a relevant task in applied demand analysis, as consumer preferences may vary significantly over time. Filtering and smoothing techniques have recently played an increasingly relevant role. A dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System with random walk parameters is estimated in order to detect modifications in consumer habits and preferences, as well as changes in the behavioural response to prices and income. Systemwise estimation, consistent with the underlying constraints from economic theory, is achieved through the EM algorithm. The proposed model is applied to UK aggregate consumption of alcohol and tobacco, using quarterly data from 1963 to 2003. Increased alcohol consumption is explained by a preference shift, addictive behaviour and a lower price elasticity. The dynamic and time-varying specification is consistent with the theoretical requirements imposed at each sample point. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.