The feasibility of forecasting influenza epidemics in Cuba

A large influenza epidemic took place in Havana during the winter of 1988. The epidemiologic surveillance unit of the Pedro Kouri Institute of Tropical Medicine detected the begining of the epidemic wave. The Rvachev-Baroyan mathematical model of the geographic spread of an epidemic was used to forecast this epidemic under routine conditions of the public health system. The expected number of individuals who would attend outpatient services, because of influenza-like illness, was calculated and communicated to the health authorities within enough time to permit the introduction of available control measures. The approximate date of the epidemic peak, the daily expected number of individuals attending medical services, and the approximate time of the end of the epidemic wave were estimated. The prediction error was 12%. The model was sufficienty accurate to warrant its use as a pratical forecasting tool in the Cuban public health system.

Forecast of acute respiratory infections: expected nonepidemic mobidity in Cuba

A forecast of nonepidemic morbidity due to acute respiratory infections were carry out by using time series analysis. The data consisted of the weekly reports of medical patient consultation from ambulatory facilities from the whole country. A version of regression model was fitted to the data. Using this approach, we were able to detect the starting data of the epidemic under routine surveillance conditions for various age groups. It will be necessary to improve the data reporting system in order to introduce these procedures at the local health center level, as well as on the provincial level.

Prevalence and factors associated to the epidemic neuropathy in a population assisted by a family doctor in Cuba

With the outbreak of an epidemic neuropathy (EN) of unknown ethiology, a study of the prevalence and factors associated to the disease was carried out in the Zamora community, municipality of Marianao, Havana City. There were 11 patients identified with EN for a prevalence rate of 1.7/100. The major risk group was the one between 45 and 64 years of age, female sex, black skin. In the univaried analysis, a high prevalence ratio (PR) was found linked to beverage intake (PR=5.32 95%; confidence intervals (CI) = 1.2-24.4), frequent drugs intake (PR=6.59; CI=1.8-24.6), consumption of edible of non certified fats (PR=4.48; CI=1.2-16.7) and the smoking habit (PR=3.6; CI=1.1-12.2). More than73/100 (CI= 68.7-78.3) of the people under serologic study were infected with Coxsakie virus A-9 (strain 47) isolated from a patient still under research. It seems there are many factors like linder intake, antecedents of hemorrhagic conjuntivitis, nutritional aspects and others that, with the virus isolated were associated with this epidemiologic situation.

The Epidemiological Impact of Antimeningococcal B Vaccination in Cuba

The incidence of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) before (1984-1988) and after (1989-1994), a nationwide intervention with VA-MENGOC-BC vaccination started in 1989, was compared. The prevaccination period incidence density (ID> 8.8/ 105 year-person) was higher than the postvaccination ID (ID< 6.5/ 105 year-person). The percentage proportional differences from the start to the end of each period of ID in the vaccinal period was higher (87%) than the prevaccinal (37%) with significant differences among vaccinated groups (< 25 years old). A break-point (Chow test) was confirmed by the decrease in the ID between 1989 and 1990 in children under 1 year old, 5-9, 10-14, 15-19 and 50-54 years. Comparison of ID using maps showed a decrease in IMD in all municipalities during the postvaccination period. These findings support the epidemiological impact of VA-MENGOC-BC vaccination in the reduction of IMD morbidity.

Antigenic and Genetic Characterization of Twenty-six Strains of Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus (Subgroup A) Isolated During Three Consecutive Outbreaks in Havana City, Cuba

Twenty-six human respiratory syncytial virus strains (subgroup A) isolated from three outbreaks in Havana City during the period 1994/95, 1995/96 and 1996/97 were analyzed to determine their antigenic and genetic relationships. Analyses were performed by monoclonal antibodies and restriction mapping (N gene) following amplification of the select region of the virus genome by polymerase chain reaction. All isolated strains were classified as subgroup A by monoclonal antibodies and they showed a restriction pattern NP4 that belonged to subgroup A. Thus the results obtained in this work, showed a close relation (100%) between antigenic and genetic characterization of the isolated strains in our laboratory. These methods permit the examination of large numbers of isolates by molecular techniques, simplifying the researchs into the molecular epidemiology of the virus.

La Capacidad actual de España para liderar la posición europea hacia Cuba

Aquest treball té per objecte analitzar quina és la capacitat actual del govern espanyol per liderar les polítiques europees respecte a Cuba. El període escollit per a la realització d'aquest examen s'inicia l'any 2004, moment en què el PSOE es va fer amb la victòria en les eleccions generals i en què va anunciar un canvi de rumb en l'acció exterior espanyola respecte de la postura promoguda pel PP en els mandats anteriors, i es perllonga fins al moment actual. El balanç dels èxits i fracassos obtinguts pel govern socialista fins ara, mostra una creixent pèrdua d'influència d'Espanya, davant etapes anteriors, si tradicional paper d'interlocutor avantatjat de la UE pel que fa a Cuba. la concurrència de factors com l'adhesió dels PECO a la UE, la capacitat de la Havana per procurar nous aliats i socis estratègics o les innovacions introduïdes pel tractat de Lisboa en matèria d'acció exterior, ha augmentat significativament les dificultats d'Espanya per "europeïtzar" els interessos de la seva política exterior pel que fa a l'Illa

Isolation and identification of Adenovirus in hospitalized children, under five years, with acute respiratory disease, in Havana, Cuba

Nine Adenovirus (Ad) strains isolated in Cuba, from 128 nasopharingeal swab specimens of children below five years old, with acute respiratory diseases, during 1996 and 1997, were studied by restriction enzyme analysis of genomic DNA with two endonucleases BamH I and Sma I. All different fragment patterns were compared with the respective prototypes. The identified adenoviruses were Ad 1 (n=4), Ad 2 (n=1) and Ad 6 (n=4). Males were more frequently infected than females. The analysis of the occurrence of these Adenovirus strains of subgenus C revealed that Ad 1 and Ad 6 were the predominant serotypes in 1996 and in 1997, respectively.