The role of heart rate as a risk marker for predicting adverse outcomes

Cardiovascular disease is one of the leading causes of death around the world. Resting heart rate has been shown to be a strong and independent risk marker for adverse cardiovascular events and mortality, and yet its role as a predictor of risk is somewhat overlooked in clinical practice. With the aim of highlighting its prognostic value, the role of resting heart rate as a risk marker for death and other adverse outcomes was further examined in a number of different patient populations. A systematic review of studies that previously assessed the prognostic value of resting heart rate for mortality and other adverse cardiovascular outcomes was presented. New analyses of nine clinical trials were carried out. Both the original and extended Cox model that allows for analysis of time-dependent covariates were used to evaluate and compare the predictive value of baseline and time-updated heart rate measurements for adverse outcomes in the CAPRICORN, EUROPA, PROSPER, PERFORM, BEAUTIFUL and SHIFT populations. Pooled individual patient meta-analyses of the CAPRICORN, EPHESUS, OPTIMAAL and VALIANT trials, and the BEAUTIFUL and SHIFT trials, were also performed. The discrimination and calibration of the models applied were evaluated using Harrell’s C-statistic and likelihood ratio tests, respectively. Finally, following on from the systematic review, meta-analyses of the relation between baseline and time-updated heart rate, and the risk of death from any cause and from cardiovascular causes, were conducted. Both elevated baseline and time-updated resting heart rates were found to be associated with an increase in the risk of mortality and other adverse cardiovascular events in all of the populations analysed. In some cases, elevated time-updated heart rate was associated with risk of events where baseline heart rate was not. Time-updated heart rate also contributed additional information about the risk of certain events despite knowledge of baseline heart rate or previous heart rate measurements. The addition of resting heart rate to the models where resting heart rate was found to be associated with risk of outcome improved both discrimination and calibration, and in general, the models including time-updated heart rate along with baseline or the previous heart rate measurement had the highest and similar C-statistics, and thus the greatest discriminative ability. The meta-analyses demonstrated that a 5bpm higher baseline heart rate was associated with a 7.9% and an 8.0% increase in the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular death, respectively (both p less than 0.001). Additionally, a 5bpm higher time-updated heart rate (adjusted for baseline heart rate in eight of the ten studies included in the analyses) was associated with a 12.8% (p less than 0.001) and a 10.9% (p less than 0.001) increase in the risk of all-cause and cardiovascular death, respectively. These findings may motivate health care professionals to routinely assess resting heart rate in order to identify individuals at a higher risk of adverse events. The fact that the addition of time-updated resting heart rate improved the discrimination and calibration of models for certain outcomes, even if only modestly, strengthens the case that it be added to traditional risk models. The findings, however, are of particular importance, and have greater implications for the clinical management of patients with pre-existing disease. An elevated, or increasing heart rate over time could be used as a tool, potentially alongside other established risk scores, to help doctors identify patient deterioration or those at higher risk, who might benefit from more intensive monitoring or treatment re-evaluation. Further exploration of the role of continuous recording of resting heart rate, say, when patients are at home, would be informative. In addition, investigation into the cost-effectiveness and optimal frequency of resting heart rate measurement is required. One of the most vital areas for future research is the definition of an objective cut-off value for the definition of a high resting heart rate.

Periodontal treatment during pregnancy decreases the rate of adverse pregnancy outcome: a controlled clinical trial

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of non-surgical treatment of periodontal disease during the second trimester of gestation on adverse pregnancy outcomes. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Pregnant patients during the 1st and 2nd trimesters at antenatal care in a Public Health Center were divided into 2 groups: NIG - "no intervention" (n=17) or IG- "intervention" (n=16). IG patients were submitted to a non-surgical periodontal treatment performed by a single periodontist consisting of scaling and root planning (SRP), professional prophylaxis (PROPH) and oral hygiene instruction (OHI). NIG received PROPH and OHI during pregnancy and were referred for treatment after delivery. Periodontal evaluation was performed by a single trained examiner, blinded to periodontal treatment, according to probing depth (PD), clinical attachment level (CAL), plaque index (PI) and sulcular bleeding index (SBI) at baseline and 35 gestational weeks-28 days post-partum. Primary adverse pregnancy outcomes were preterm birth (<37 weeks), low birth weight (<2.5 kg), late abortion (14-24 weeks) or abortion (<14 weeks). The results obtained were statistically evaluated according to OR, unpaired t test and paired t test at 5% signifcance level. RESULTS: No signifcant differences were observed between groups at baseline examination. Periodontal treatment resulted in stabilization of CAL and PI (p>0.05) at IG and worsening of all periodontal parameters at NIG (p<0.0001), except for PI. Signifcant differences in periodontal conditions of IG and NIG were observed at 2nd examination (p<0.001). The rate of adverse pregnancy outcomes was 47.05% in NIG and 6.25% in IG. Periodontal treatment during pregnancy was associated to a decreased risk of developing adverse pregnancy outcomes [OR=13.50; CI: 1.47-123.45; p=0.02]. CONCLUSIONS: Periodontal treatment during the second trimester of gestation contributes to decrease adverse pregnancy outcomes.

The International Collaboration on Air Pollution and Pregnancy Outcomes: Initial Results

BACKGROUND: The findings of prior studies of air pollution effects on adverse birth outcomes are difficult to synthesize because of differences in study design. OBJECTIVES: The International Collaboration on Air Pollution and Pregnancy Outcomes was formed to understand how differences in research methods contribute to variations in findings. We initiated a feasibility study to a) assess the ability of geographically diverse research groups to analyze their data sets using a common protocol and b) perform location-specific analyses of air pollution effects on birth weight using a standardized statistical approach. METHODS: Fourteen research groups from nine countries participated. We developed a protocol to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for the association between particulate matter <= 10 mu m in aerodynamic diameter (PM(10)) and low birth weight (LBW) among term births, adjusted first for socioeconomic status (SES) and second for additional location-specific variables. RESULTS: Among locations with data for the PM(10) analysis, ORs estimating the relative risk of term LBW associated with a 10-mu g/m(3) increase in average PM(10) concentration during pregnancy, adjusted for SES, ranged from 0.63 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.30-1.35] for the Netherlands to 1.15 (95% CI, 0.61-2.18) for Vancouver, with six research groups reporting statistically significant adverse associations. We found evidence of statistically significant heterogeneity in estimated effects among locations. CONCLUSIONS: Variability in PM(10)-LBW relationships among study locations remained despite use of a common statistical approach. A more detailed meta-analysis and use of more complex protocols for future analysis may uncover reasons for heterogeneity across locations. However, our findings confirm the potential for a diverse group of researchers to analyze their data in a standardized way to improve understanding of air pollution effects on birth outcomes.

Audit of maternal and fetal outcomes in women treated for glucose intolerance during pregnancy

Objective To determine whether one should aim for glycaemia that is statistically 'normal' or for levels of glycaemia low enough to prevent macrosomia (if such a threshold exists) when glucose intolerance is detected during pregnancy Design An audit of pregnancy outcomes in women with impaired glucose tolerance in pregnancy as compared to a local age-matched reference group with normal glucose tolerance. Results Our study suggests that for most patients, more intensive therapy would not have been justified. Maternal smoking appeared to convey some 'advantages' in terms of neonatal outcomes, with reduction in large-for-gestational-age (LGA) infants and jaundice in babies of impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) mothers. Conclusions These observations demonstrate the importance of considering risk factors other than GTT results in analysing pregnancy outcomes, while emphasising that 'normalisation' of fetal size should not be our only therapeutic endpoint. Our detailed outcome review allows us to reassure patients with GDM that with current treatment protocols, they should have every expectation of a positive pregnancy outcome.

Use of an accelerated chest pain assessment protocol in patients at intermediate risk of adverse cardiac events

Objective: To determine the feasibility, safety and effectiveness of a structured clinical pathway for stratification and management of patients presenting with chest pain and classified as having intermediate risk of adverse cardiac outcomes in the subsequent six months. Design: Prospective clinical audit. Participants and setting: 630 consecutive patients who presented to the emergency department of a metropolitan tertiary care hospital between January 2000 and June 2001 with chest pain and intermediate-risk features. Intervention: Use of the Accelerated Chest Pain Assessment Protocol (ACPAP), as advocated by the Management of unstable angina guidelines - 2000 from the National Heart Foundation and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand. Main outcome measure: Adverse cardiac events during six-month follow-up. Results: 409 patients (65%) were reclassified as low risk and discharged at a mean of 14 hours after assessment in the chest pain unit. None had missed myocardial infarctions, while three (1%) had cardiac events at six months (all elective revascularisation procedures, with no readmissions with acute coronary syndromes). Another 110 patients (17%) were reclassified as high risk, and 21 (19%) of these had cardiac events (mainly revascularisations) by six months. Patients who were unable to exercise or had non-diagnostic exercise stress test results (equivocal risk) had an intermediate cardiac event rate (8%). Conclusions: This study validates use of ACPAP. The protocol eliminated missed myocardial infarction; allowed early, safe discharge of low-risk patients; and led to early identification and management of high-risk patients.

Nutritional status of pregnant women: prevalence and associated pregnancy outcomes

INTRODUCTION: Although obesity is well recognized as a current public health problem, its prevalence and impact among pregnant women have been less investigated in Brazil. The objective of the study was to evaluate the impact of pre-obesity and obesity among pregnant women, describing its prevalence and risk factors, and their association with adverse pregnancy outcomes. METHODS: A cohort of 5,564 pregnant women, aged 20 years or more, enrolled at aproximately 20 to 28 weeks of pregnancy, seen in prenatal public clinics of six state capitals in Brazil were followed up, between 1991 and 1995. Prepregnancy weight, age, educational level and parity were obtained from a standard questionnaire. Height was measured in duplicate and the interviewer assigned the skin color. Nutritional status was defined using body mass index (BMI), according to World Health Organization (WHO) criteria. Odds ratios and 95% confidence interval were calculated using logistic regression. RESULTS: Age-adjusted prevalences (and 95% CI) based on prepregnancy weight were: underweight 5.7% (5.1%-6.3%), overweight 19.2% (18.1%-20.3%), and obesity 5.5% (4.9%-6.2%). Obesity was more frequently observed in older black women, with a lower educational level and multiparous. Obese women had higher frequencies of gestational diabetes, macrosomia, hypertensive disorders, and lower risk of microsomia. CONCLUSIONS: Overweight nutritional status (obesity and pre-obesity) was seen in 25% of adult pregnant women and it was associated with increased risk for several adverse pregnancy outcomes, such as gestational diabetes and pre-eclampsia.

Reproductive outcomes in an area adjacent to a petrochemical plant in southern Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate possible adverse reproductive outcomes in an area adjacent to a petrochemical plant in southern Brazil. METHODS: A review of 17,113 birth records of the main hospital of the municipality of Montenegro, southern Brazil, from 1983 to 1998 was carried out. Three groups of cases were selected: (1) newborns with major congenital malformations; (2) newborns with low birth weight (<2,500 g); and (3) stillborns (>500 g). A control was assigned to each case. Controls were the first newborns weighing > or = 2,500 g without malformations and of case-matching sex. Mother's residence during pregnancy was used as an exposure parameter. Statistical analyses were performed using Chi-square test or Fisher test, odds ratio, 0.05 significance level, and 95% confidence interval. RESULTS: For unadjusted analysis, it was found a correlation between low birth weight and geographical proximity of mother's residence to the petrochemical plant (OR = 1.66; 95% CI = 1.01--2.72) or residence on the way of preferential wind direction (OR = 1.62; 95% CI = 1.03--2.56). When other covariates were added in the conditional logistic regression (maternal smoking habits, chronic disease and age), there was no association. CONCLUSIONS: Despite final results were negative, low birth weight could be a good parameter of environmental contamination and should be closely monitored in the studied area.

Mother’s depression at childbirth does not contribute to the effects of antenatal depression on neonate’s behavioral development

Background: Maternal depression is a worldwide phenomenon that has been linked to adverse developmental outcomes in neonates. Aims: To study the effect of antenatal depression (during the third trimester of pregnancy) on neonate behavior, preference, and habituation to both the mother and a stranger’s face/voice. To analyze mother’s depression at childbirth as a potential mediator or moderator of the relationship between antenatal depression and neonate behavioral development. Method: A sample of 110 pregnant women was divided in 2 groups according to their scores on the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale during pregnancy (EPDS; ≥10, depressed; <10, non-depressed). In the first 5 days after birth, neonatal performance on the Neonatal Behavioral Assessment Scale (NBAS) and in the ‘Preference and habituation to the mother’s face/voice versus stranger’ paradigm was assessed; each mother filled out an EPDS. Results: Neonates of depressed pregnant women, achieved lower scores on the NBASs (regulation of state, range of state, and habituation); did not show a visual/auditory preference for the mother’s face/voice; required more trials to become habituated to the mother’s face/voice; and showed a higher visual/auditory preference for the stranger’s face/voice after habituation compared to neonates of non-depressed pregnant women. Depression at childbirth does not contribute to the effect of antenatal depression on neonatal behavioral development. Conclusion: Depression even before childbirth compromises the neonatal behavioral development. Depression is a relevant issue and should be addressed as a routine part of prenatal health care.

Comorbid depression and anxiety effects on pregnancy and neonatal outcome

The effects of comorbid depression and anxiety were compared to the effects of depression alone and anxiety alone on pregnancy mood states and biochemistry and on neonatal outcomes in a large multi-ethnic sample. At the prenatal period the comorbid and depressed groups had higher scores than the other groups on the depression measure. But, the comorbid group had higher anxiety, anger and daily hassles scores than the other groups, and they had lower dopamine levels. As compared to the non-depressed group, they also reported more sleep disturbances and relationship problems. The comorbid group also experienced a greater incidence of prematurity than the depressed, the high anxiety and the non-depressed groups. Although the comorbid and anxiety groups were lower birthweight than the non-depressed and depressed groups, the comorbid group did not differ from the depressed and anxiety groups on birth length. The neonates of the comorbid and depressed groups had higher cortisol and norepinephrine and lower dopamine and serotonin levels than the neonates of the anxiety and non-depressed groups as well as greater relative right frontal EEG. These data suggest that for some measures comorbidity of depression and anxiety is the worst condition (e.g., incidence of prematurity), while for others, comorbidity is no more impactful than depression alone.

Clinical and biological determinants of kidney outcomes in a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Prospective studies on factors associated with adverse kidney outcomes in European general populations are scant. Also, few studies consider the potential confounding effect of baseline kidney function. METHODS: We used baseline (2003-2006) and 5-year follow-up data of adults from the general population to evaluate the effect of baseline kidney function and proteinuria on the association of clinical, biological (e.g. uric acid, homocysteine, cytokines), and socioeconomic factors with change in kidney function, rapid decline in kidney function, and incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urinary albuminuria-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) were collected. Kidney outcomes were modeled using multivariable regressions. RESULTS: A total of 4,441 subjects were included in the analysis. Among participants without CKD at baseline, 11.4% presented rapid decline in eGFR and/or incident CKD. After adjustment for baseline eGFR and log UACR, only age (Odds Ratio; 1.25 [95%CI 1.18-1.33]), diabetes (OR 1.48 [1.03-2.13]), education (OR middle vs. high 1.51 [1.08-2.11]) and log ultrasensitive CRP (OR 1.16 [1.05-1.22]) were associated with rapid decline in eGFR or incident CKD. Baseline log UACR (OR 1.18 [1.06-1.32]) but not eGFR was associated with rapid decline in eGFR and/or incident CKD. CONCLUSION: In addition to age and diabetes, education and CRP levels are associated with adverse kidney outcomes independently of baseline kidney function.

Physical activity and pregnancy

SUMMARY : The traditional medical advice for pregnant women has been to reduce their physical activity (PA) levels. The advice was based on concerns that exercise could affect pregnancy outcomes by increasing core body temperature, by increasing the risk of maternal musculoskeletal injury and by altering the transplacental transport of oxygen and nutrients to maternal skeletal muscle rather than to the developing foetus. In the meantime, several studies have provided new information on adaptation of the pregnant woman and her foetus to moderate PA. New investigations have shown no adverse maternal or neonatal outcomes, abnormal foetal growth, increase in early pregnancy loss, or late pregnancy complications. Moreover, enrolment in moderate PA has proven to result in marked health benefits including improved maternal cardiovascular function, reduction of excessive weight gain and fat retention, less complicated labour, improved foetal stress tolerance and neurobehavioral maturation. In view of the beneficial effects, current recommendations encourage healthy pregnant women to engage in 30 minutes of moderate PA on most, if not all, days of the week. This thesis work addressed several questions. Firstly, it examined whether compliance with the recommended levels of PA during pregnancy results in better preparedness for the sudden physical exertion of labour and delivery. Secondly, it measured PA during pregnancy as compared to postpartum. Lastly, it assessed the influence of pre-pregnancy body mass index on gestational resting metabolic rate. Data collection was conducted on healthy women living in Switzerland during the third trimester of pregnancy and postpartum. Total and activity energy expenditure was assessed through 24-hour heart rate and accelerations recordings, and cardiovascular fitness through an individual step-test. Information related to pregnancy, labour and delivery was collected from medical records. The results indicate that a minimum 30 min of moderate PA per day during pregnancy are associated with better cardiovascular fitness and lower risk of operative delivery with no negative effects on maternal and foetal conditions (study 1). Despite these benefits, a substantial proportion of pregnant women (39%) living in Switzerland do not meet the PA recommendations. The decrease in activity related energy expenditure during pregnancy compared to postpartum was measured to be around 100 kcal/day (~13%), whereas the total energy expenditure was found to increase by 300 kcal/day (study 2). Thus, the energy cost of late pregnancy in Switzerland corresponds to 200 kca/day. These findings are based on average values of the study group. It should be noted, however, that large variations in individual energy expenditure may occur depending on the pre-pregnancy body mass index (study 3). When adjusted to body weight, gestational resting metabolic rate is significantly lower among women of high pre-pregnancy body mass index compared to women of normal or low pre-pregnancy body mass index. This can be explained by the fact that resting metabolic rate is primarily a function of fat-free mass, and when expressed per kg body weight, it decreases as the percentage of body fat increases. If energy intake is not modified appropriately in order to match lower energy cost per kg body weight in overweight and obese women it will result in positive energy balance, thus contributing to the current trend towards increasing adiposity in affluent society. The results of these studies go beyond the current state of knowledge on PA and pregnancy (study 4) and provide valid evidence to guide clinical practice. In view of the current epidemic of sedentary behaviour and obesity related pathology, the findings contribute new and reliable information to public health policies regarding the effects of PA in pregnancy, an important period of life for both mother and infant.

The Lausanne cohort Lc65+: a population-based prospective study of the manifestations, determinants and outcomes of frailty

BACKGROUND: Frailty is a relatively new geriatric concept referring to an increased vulnerability to stressors. Various definitions have been proposed, as well as a range of multidimensional instruments for its measurement. More recently, a frailty phenotype that predicts a range of adverse outcomes has been described. Understanding frailty is a particular challenge both from a clinical and a public health perspective because it may be a reversible precursor of functional dependence. The Lausanne cohort Lc65+ is a longitudinal study specifically designed to investigate the manifestations of frailty from its first signs in the youngest old, identify medical and psychosocial determinants, and describe its evolution and related outcomes. METHODS/DESIGN: The Lc65+ cohort was launched in 2004 with the random selection of 3054 eligible individuals aged 65 to 70 (birth year 1934-1938) in the non-institutionalized population of Lausanne (Switzerland). The baseline data collection was completed among 1422 participants in 2004-2005 through questionnaires, examination and performance tests. It comprised a wide range of medical and psychosocial dimensions, including a life course history of adverse events. Outcomes measures comprise subjective health, limitations in activities of daily living, mobility impairments, development of medical conditions or chronic health problems, falls, institutionalization, health services utilization, and death. Two additional random samples of 65-70 years old subjects will be surveyed in 2009 (birth year 1939-1943) and in 2014 (birth year 1944-1948). DISCUSSION: The Lc65+ study focuses on the sequence "Determinants --> Components --> Consequences" of frailty. It currently provides information on health in the youngest old and will allow comparisons to be made between the profiles of aging individuals born before, during and at the end of the Second World War.

Putative adverse outcome pathways relevant to neurotoxicity.

The Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) framework provides a template that facilitates understanding of complex biological systems and the pathways of toxicity that result in adverse outcomes (AOs). The AOP starts with an molecular initiating event (MIE) in which a chemical interacts with a biological target(s), followed by a sequential series of KEs, which are cellular, anatomical, and/or functional changes in biological processes, that ultimately result in an AO manifest in individual organisms and populations. It has been developed as a tool for a knowledge-based safety assessment that relies on understanding mechanisms of toxicity, rather than simply observing its adverse outcome. A large number of cellular and molecular processes are known to be crucial to proper development and function of the central (CNS) and peripheral nervous systems (PNS). However, there are relatively few examples of well-documented pathways that include causally linked MIEs and KEs that result in adverse outcomes in the CNS or PNS. As a first step in applying the AOP framework to adverse health outcomes associated with exposure to exogenous neurotoxic substances, the EU Reference Laboratory for Alternatives to Animal Testing (EURL ECVAM) organized a workshop (March 2013, Ispra, Italy) to identify potential AOPs relevant to neurotoxic and developmental neurotoxic outcomes. Although the AOPs outlined during the workshop are not fully described, they could serve as a basis for further, more detailed AOP development and evaluation that could be useful to support human health risk assessment in a variety of ways.

Late effects of cancer at a young age: Registry-based studies of the health of cancer patients and their off-spring

Modern cancer therapy has resulted in increased survival among patients diagnosed with cancer at a young age. These improvements have led to the investigation of late morbidity and mortality associated with cancer and its treatments. The aim of this study was to evaluate late effects of cancer treated at a young age on the health of patients and their offspring. Utilising the nationwide population-based registries in Finland, we evaluated the risk of hypothyroidism and the probability of parenthood in cancer survivors as well as preterm birth, neonatal outcomes, and the risk of cancer among offspring of patients. The survivor cohort, identified from the Finnish Cancer Registry, consisted of 25,784 cancer patients diag-nosed between ages 0 and 34 in 1953–2004. By linkage to the population register, siblings of these patients were identified for comparison. The prevalence of hypothyroidism was higher among former childhood cancer (aged 0–16) patients than in the general population. The probability of parenthood following early onset cancer was overall significantly reduced compared to siblings. Offspring of female cancer survivors were at an increased risk of preterm birth, this risk being highest among patients diagnosed in childhood and early adulthood (aged 20–34 years). The offspring were not, however, at a significantly increased risk of neonatal death or stillbirth, though they were more likely to need monitoring or intensive care in the neonatal period. The risk of sporadic cancer among offspring of male and female cancer survivors was not elevated in comparison to the general population. The study showed that former cancer patients are at risk of certain adverse endocrine and reproductive health outcomes and should be followed for timely intervention. The offspring of cancer survivors do not appear to be at risk for adverse health outcomes.

Obstetric outcomes in the second birth of women with a previous caesarean delivery: a retrospective cohort study from Peru

PURPOSE: To examine obstetric outcomes in the second birth of women who had undergone a previous cesarean delivery. METHODS: This was a large hospital-based retrospective cohort study. We included pregnant women who had a previous delivery (vaginal or cesarean) attending their second birth from 2001 to 2009. Main inclusion criteria were singleton pregnancies and delivery between a gestation of 24 and 41 weeks. Two cohorts were selected, being women with a previous cesarean delivery (n=7,215) and those with a vaginal one (n=23,720). Both groups were compared and logistic regression was performed to adjust for confounding variables. The obstetric outcomes included uterine rupture, placenta previa, and placental-related complications such as placental abruption, preeclampsia, and spontaneous preterm delivery. RESULTS: Women with previous cesarean delivery were more likely to have adverse outcomes such as uterine rupture (OR=12.4, 95%CI 6.8-22.3), placental abruption (OR=1.4, 95%CI 1.1-2.1), preeclampsia (OR=1.4, 95%CI 1.2-1.6), and spontaneous preterm delivery (OR=1.4, 95%CI 1.1-1.7). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with previous cesarean section have adverse obstetric outcomes in the subsequent pregnancy, including uterine rupture, and placental-related disorders such as preeclampsia, spontaneous preterm delivery, and placental abruption.