Reduction of Models in the Presence of Nuisance Parameters

In many statistical inference problems, there is interest in estimation of only some elements of the parameter vector that defines the adopted model. In general, such elements are associated to measures of location and the additional terms, known as nuisance parameters, to control the dispersion and asymmetry of the underlying distributions. To estimate all the parameters of the model and to draw inferences only on the parameters of interest. Depending on the adopted model, this procedure can be both algebraically is common and computationally very costly and thus it is convenient to reduce it, so that it depends only on the parameters of interest. This article reviews estimation methods in the presence of nuisance parameters and consider some applications in models recently discussed in the literature.

Pedal : identification of models for duodenal administration of levodopa

Backgound and aims: The main purpose of the PEDAL study is to identify and estimate sample individual pharmacokinetic- pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) models for duodenal infusion of levodopa/carbidopa (Duodopa®) that can be used for in numero simulation of treatment strategies. Other objectives are to study the absorption of Duodopa® and to form a basis for power calculation for a future larger study. PK/PD based on oral levodopa is problematic because of irregular gastric emptying. Preliminary work with data from [Gundert-Remy U et al. Eur J Clin Pharmacol 1983;25:69-72] suggested that levodopa infusion pharmacokinetics can be described by a two-compartment model. Background research led to a hypothesis for an effect model incorporating concentration-unrelated fluctuations, more complex than standard E-max models. Methods: PEDAL involved a few patients already on Duodopa®. A bolus dose (normal morning dose plus 50%) was given after a washout during night. Data collection continued until the clinical effect was back at baseline. The procedure was repeated on two non-consecutive days per patient. The following data were collected in 5 to 15 minutes intervals: i) Accelerometer data. ii) Three e-diary questions about ability to walk, feelings of “off” and “dyskinesia”. iii) Clinical assessment of motor function by a physician. iv) Plasma concentrations of levodopa, carbidopa and the metabolite 3-O-methyldopa. The main effect variable will be the clinical assessment. Results: At date of abstract submission, lab analyses were currently being performed. Modelling results, simulation experiments and conclusions will be presented in our poster.

Speed of adjustment of capital structure: empirical study

We analyze the impact of firm-specific characteristics as well as economic factors on the speed of adjustment to the target debt ratio. Using different methods, we document speeds of adjustment ranging from 14.4% to 37%. The results indicate that the speed of adjustment is affected by business-cycle variables: The interaction term related to term spread reveals, as expected, faster adjustment in booms than in recessions and a negative relationship between short term spread and adjustment speed. We also show that the speed of adjustment becomes stationary when the increasing fractions of zero-debt firms are considered.

Start-up adjustment of a plug-flow digester for cassava wastewater (manipueira) treatment

Um dos resíduos gerados no processamento da mandioca (Manihot esculenta) é a manipueira, passível de tratamento por biodigestão anaeróbia. Este trabalho objetivou estudar o processo de partida de um biodigestor tipo plug-flow, tratando manipueira de duas maneiras: diminuindo-se gradativamente o tempo de retenção hidráulica (TRH) até se chegar ao tempo pré-estabelecido, quatro dias; ou mantendo-se o TRH fixo em quatro dias e aumentando-se gradativamente a concentração do afluente. O biodigestor, com capacidade 1980 mL, foi mantido a temperatura de 32ºC ± 1. Empregou-se como substrato manipueira e ajustou-se o pH entre 5,5 e 6,0. A primeira etapa foi caracterizada empregando-se TRH de 16,6; 13,6; 11,6 e 9,6 dias e 3,1; 2,0; 2,3 e 2,9 g DQO L-1 d-1 de carga orgânica, respectivamente. Na segunda etapa manteve-se TRH fixo, 4 dias, porém cargas orgânicas de 0,48, 0,86, 1,65 e 2,46 g DQO L-1 d-1. Determinaram-se no afluente e efluente, sólidos totais (ST) e sólidos voláteis (SV), demanda química de oxigênio (DQO), alcalinidade e acidez volátil. Na primeira etapa, melhores resultados foram observados trabalhando com TRH 9,6 dias e carga orgânica 2,9 g DQO L-1 d-1, quando houve redução de DQO, ST e SV de 60%, 44% e 60%, respectivamente. Na segunda etapa o TRH de 4 dias apresentou melhores resultados empregando-se carga orgânica de 0,86 g DQO L-1 d-1, houve redução de 71%, 58% e 79% de DQO, ST e SV, respectivamente. A partida do biodigestor plug-flow tratando manipueira, pode ser realizada tanto diminuindo-se o TRH, quanto mantendo-o fixo e aumentado-se a concentração do afluente.

Efficient parametric adjustment of fuzzy inference system using unconstrained optimization

This paper presents a new methodology for the adjustment of fuzzy inference systems, which uses technique based on error back-propagation method. The free parameters of the fuzzy inference system, such as its intrinsic parameters of the membership function and the weights of the inference rules, are automatically adjusted. This methodology is interesting, not only for the results presented and obtained through computer simulations, but also for its generality concerning to the kind of fuzzy inference system used. Therefore, this methodology is expandable either to the Mandani architecture or also to that suggested by Takagi-Sugeno. The validation of the presented methodology is accomplished through estimation of time series and by a mathematical modeling problem. More specifically, the Mackey-Glass chaotic time series is used for the validation of the proposed methodology. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2007.

Aspectos de la adaptación de los migrantes rurales a las condiciones urbano-industriales de Sao Paulo, Brasil = Aspects of the adjustment of rural migrants to urban-industrial conditions in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Los documentos del Seminario fueron publicados por UNESCO en 1961 con el título: La urbanización en América Latina/Urbanization in Latin America

Changes of models and modifications to models in production

Information Paper, No 22

Representation of transmission lines: comparison of models and parameters distributed discrete parameters

A transmission line is characterized by the fact that its parameters are distributed along its length. This fact makes the voltages and currents along the line to behave like waves and these are described by differential equations. In general, the differential equations mentioned are difficult to solve in the time domain, due to the convolution integral, but in the frequency domain these equations become simpler and their solutions are known. The transmission line can be represented by a cascade of π circuits. This model has the advantage of being developed directly in the time domain, but there is a need to apply numerical integration methods. In this work a comparison of the model that considers the fact that the parameters are distributed (Universal Line Model) and the fact that the parameters considered concentrated along the line (π circuit model) using the trapezoidal integration method, and Simpson's rule Runge-Kutta in a single-phase transmission line length of 100 km subjected to an operation power. © 2003-2012 IEEE.

Accurate adjustment of feed formulation for broiler chickens on performance and lipid composition of meat

Most consumers consider the fat of chicken meat undesirable for a healthy diet, due to the high levels of saturated fatty acids and cholesterol. The purpose of this experiment was to investigate the influence of changes in dietary metabolizable energy level, associated with a proportional nutrient density variation, on broiler chickens performance and on the lipid composition of meat. Males and females Cobb 500 broilers were evaluated separately. Performance evaluation followed a completely randomized design with factorial 6x3 arrangement - six energy levels (2,800, 2,900, 3,000, 3,100, 3,200 and 3,300 kcal/kg) and three slaughter ages (42, 49 and 56 days). Response surface methodology was used to establish a mathematical model to explain live weight, feed intake and feed conversion behavior. Total lipids and cholesterol were determined in skinned breast meat and in thigh meat, with and without skin. For lipid composition analysis, a 3x3x2 factorial arrangement in a completely randomized design - three ration’s metabolizable energy levels (2,800, 3,000 and 3,300 kcal/kg), three slaughter ages (42, 49 and 56 days) and two sexes - was used. The reduction in the diet metabolizable energy up to close to 3,000 kcal/kg did not affect live weight but, below this value, the live weight decreased. Feed intake was lower when the dietary energy level was higher. Feed conversion was favored in a direct proportion to the increase of the energy level of the diet. The performance of all birds was within the range considered appropriate for the lineage. Breast meat had less total lipids and cholesterol than thigh meat. Thigh with skin had more than the double of total lipids of skinned thigh, but the cholesterol content did not differ with the removal of the skin, suggesting that cholesterol content is not associated with the subcutaneous fat. Intramuscular fat content was lower in the meat from birds fed diets with lower energy level. These results may help to define the most appropriate nutritional management. Despite the decrease in bird’s productive performance, the restriction of energy in broiler chickens feed may be a viable alternative, if the consumers are willing to pay more for meat with less fat.

Exact cosmological solutions of models with an interacting dark sector

In this work we extend the first order formalism for cosmological models that present an interaction between a fermionic and a scalar field. Cosmological exact solutions describing universes filled with interacting dark energy and dark matter have been obtained. Viable cosmological solutions with an early period of decelerated expansion followed by late acceleration have been found, notably one which presents a dark matter component dominating in the past and a dark energy component dominating in the future. In another one, the dark energy alone is the responsible for both periods, similar to a Chaplygin gas case. Exclusively accelerating solutions have also been obtained.

Robust and optimal adjustment of Power System Stabilizers through Linear Matrix Inequalities

This work presents the application of Linear Matrix Inequalities to the robust and optimal adjustment of Power System Stabilizers with pre-defined structure. Results of some tests show that gain and zeros adjustments are sufficient to guarantee robust stability and performance with respect to various operating points. Making use of the flexible structure of LMI's, we propose an algorithm that minimizes the norm of the controllers gain matrix while it guarantees the damping factor specified for the closed loop system, always using a controller with flexible structure. The technique used here is the pole placement, whose objective is to place the poles of the closed loop system in a specific region of the complex plane. Results of tests with a nine-machine system are presented and discussed, in order to validate the algorithm proposed. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validation of models for predicting milk urea nitrogen concentrations, estimating dry matter intake by the NRC (2001)

The objective of this study was to validate three different models for predicting milk urea nitrogen using field conditions, attempting to evaluate the nutritional adequacy diets for dairy cows and prediction of nitrogen excreted to the environment. Observations (4,749) from 855 cows were used. Milk yield, body weight (BW), days in milk and parity were recorded on the milk sampling days. Milk was sampled monthly, for analysis of milk urea nitrogen (MUN), fat, protein, lactose and total solids concentration and somatic cells count. Individual dry matter intake was estimated using the NRC (2001). The three models studied were derived from a first one to predict urinary nitrogen (UN). Model 1 was MUN = UN/12.54, model 2 was MUN = UN/17.6 and model 3 was MUN = UN/(0.0259 × BW), adjusted by body weight effect. To evaluate models, they were tested for accuracy, precision and robustness. Despite being more accurate (mean bias = 0.94 mg/dL), model 2 was less precise (residual error = 4.50 mg/dL) than model 3 (mean bias = 1.41 and residual error = 4.11 mg/dL), while model 1 was the least accurate (mean bias = 6.94 mg/dL) and the least precise (residual error = 5.40 mg/dL). They were not robust, because they were influenced by almost all the variables studied. The three models for predicting milk urea nitrogen were different with respect to accuracy, precision and robustness.

Development of models and methods to simulate peptide-assisted nucleation and growth of calcium-minerals

In den vergangenen Jahren wurden einige bislang unbekannte Phänomene experimentell beobachtet, wie etwa die Existenz unterschiedlicher Prä-Nukleations-Strukturen. Diese haben zu einem neuen Verständnis von Prozessen, die auf molekularer Ebene während der Nukleation und dem Wachstum von Kristallen auftreten, beigetragen. Die Auswirkungen solcher Prä-Nukleations-Strukturen auf den Prozess der Biomineralisation sind noch nicht hinreichend verstanden. Die Mechanismen, mittels derer biomolekulare Modifikatoren, wie Peptide, mit Prä-Nukleations-Strukturen interagieren und somit den Nukleationsprozess von Mineralen beeinflussen könnten, sind vielfältig. Molekulare Simulationen sind zur Analyse der Formation von Prä-Nukleations-Strukturen in Anwesenheit von Modifikatoren gut geeignet. Die vorliegende Arbeit beschreibt einen Ansatz zur Analyse der Interaktion von Peptiden mit den in Lösung befindlichen Bestandteilen der entstehenden Kristalle mit Hilfe von Molekular-Dynamik Simulationen.rnUm informative Simulationen zu ermöglichen, wurde in einem ersten Schritt die Qualität bestehender Kraftfelder im Hinblick auf die Beschreibung von mit Calciumionen interagierenden Oligoglutamaten in wässrigen Lösungen untersucht. Es zeigte sich, dass große Unstimmigkeiten zwischen etablierten Kraftfeldern bestehen, und dass keines der untersuchten Kraftfelder eine realistische Beschreibung der Ionen-Paarung dieser komplexen Ionen widerspiegelte. Daher wurde eine Strategie zur Optimierung bestehender biomolekularer Kraftfelder in dieser Hinsicht entwickelt. Relativ geringe Veränderungen der auf die Ionen–Peptid van-der-Waals-Wechselwirkungen bezogenen Parameter reichten aus, um ein verlässliches Modell für das untersuchte System zu erzielen. rnDas umfassende Sampling des Phasenraumes der Systeme stellt aufgrund der zahlreichen Freiheitsgrade und der starken Interaktionen zwischen Calciumionen und Glutamat in Lösung eine besondere Herausforderung dar. Daher wurde die Methode der Biasing Potential Replica Exchange Molekular-Dynamik Simulationen im Hinblick auf das Sampling von Oligoglutamaten justiert und es erfolgte die Simulation von Peptiden verschiedener Kettenlängen in Anwesenheit von Calciumionen. Mit Hilfe der Sketch-Map Analyse konnten im Rahmen der Simulationen zahlreiche stabile Ionen-Peptid-Komplexe identifiziert werden, welche die Formation von Prä-Nukleations-Strukturen beeinflussen könnten. Abhängig von der Kettenlänge des Peptids weisen diese Komplexe charakteristische Abstände zwischen den Calciumionen auf. Diese ähneln einigen Abständen zwischen den Calciumionen in jenen Phasen von Calcium-Oxalat Kristallen, die in Anwesenheit von Oligoglutamaten gewachsen sind. Die Analogie der Abstände zwischen Calciumionen in gelösten Ionen-Peptid-Komplexen und in Calcium-Oxalat Kristallen könnte auf die Bedeutung von Ionen-Peptid-Komplexen im Prozess der Nukleation und des Wachstums von Biomineralen hindeuten und stellt einen möglichen Erklärungsansatz für die Fähigkeit von Oligoglutamaten zur Beeinflussung der Phase des sich formierenden Kristalls dar, die experimentell beobachtet wurde.

Population genomic tests of models of adaptive radiation in Lake Victoria Region cichlid fish

Adaptive radiation is usually thought to be associated with speciation, but the evolution of intraspecific polymorphisms without speciation is also possible. The radiation of cichlid fish in Lake Victoria (LV) is perhaps the most impressive example of a recent rapid adaptive radiation, with 600+ very young species. Key questions about its origin remain poorly characterized, such as the importance of speciation versus polymorphism, whether species persist on evolutionary time scales, and if speciation happens more commonly in small isolated or in large connected populations. We used 320 individuals from 105 putative species from Lakes Victoria, Edward, Kivu, Albert, Nabugabo and Saka, in a radiation-wide amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) genome scan to address some of these questions. We demonstrate pervasive signatures of speciation supporting the classical model of adaptive radiation associated with speciation. A positive relationship between the age of lakes and the average genomic differentiation of their species, and a significant fraction of molecular variance explained by above-species level taxonomy suggest the persistence of species on evolutionary time scales, with radiation through sequential speciation rather than a single starburst. Finally the large gene diversity retained from colonization to individual species in every radiation suggests large effective population sizes and makes speciation in small geographical isolates unlikely.