A space-time hybrid hourly rainfall model for derived flood frequency analysis

For derived flood frequency analysis based on hydrological modelling long continuous precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are needed. Often, the observation network with recording rainfall gauges is poor, especially regarding the limited length of the available rainfall time series. Stochastic precipitation synthesis is a good alternative either to extend or to regionalise rainfall series to provide adequate input for long-term rainfall-runoff modelling with subsequent estimation of design floods. Here, a new two step procedure for stochastic synthesis of continuous hourly space-time rainfall is proposed and tested for the extension of short observed precipitation time series. First, a single-site alternating renewal model is presented to simulate independent hourly precipitation time series for several locations. The alternating renewal model describes wet spell durations, dry spell durations and wet spell intensities using univariate frequency distributions separately for two seasons. The dependence between wet spell intensity and duration is accounted for by 2-copulas. For disaggregation of the wet spells into hourly intensities a predefined profile is used. In the second step a multi-site resampling procedure is applied on the synthetic point rainfall event series to reproduce the spatial dependence structure of rainfall. Resampling is carried out successively on all synthetic event series using simulated annealing with an objective function considering three bivariate spatial rainfall characteristics. In a case study synthetic precipitation is generated for some locations with short observation records in two mesoscale catchments of the Bode river basin located in northern Germany. The synthetic rainfall data are then applied for derived flood frequency analysis using the hydrological model HEC-HMS. The results show good performance in reproducing average and extreme rainfall characteristics as well as in reproducing observed flood frequencies. The presented model has the potential to be used for ungauged locations through regionalisation of the model parameters.

Spatio-temporal modeling of data imputation for daily rainfall series in homogeneous zones.

Spatio-temporal modelling is an area of increasing importance in which models and methods have often been developed to deal with specific applications. In this study, a spatio-temporal model was used to estimate daily rainfall data. Rainfall records from several weather stations, obtained from the Agritempo system for two climatic homogeneous zones, were used. Rainfall values obtained for two fixed dates (January 1 and May 1, 2012) using the spatio-temporal model were compared with the geostatisticals techniques of ordinary kriging and ordinary cokriging with altitude as auxiliary variable. The spatio-temporal model was more than 17% better at producing estimates of daily precipitation compared to kriging and cokriging in the first zone and more than 18% in the second zone. The spatio-temporal model proved to be a versatile technique, adapting to different seasons and dates.

Interpersonal pattern dynamics and adaptive behavior in multiagent neurobiological systems : conceptual model and data

Ecological dynamics characterizes adaptive behavior as an emergent, self-organizing property of interpersonal interactions in complex social systems. The authors conceptualize and investigate constraints on dynamics of decisions and actions in the multiagent system of team sports. They studied coadaptive interpersonal dynamics in rugby union to model potential control parameter and collective variable relations in attacker–defender dyads. A videogrammetry analysis revealed how some agents generated fluctuations by adapting displacement velocity to create phase transitions and destabilize dyadic subsystems near the try line. Agent interpersonal dynamics exhibited characteristics of chaotic attractors and informational constraints of rugby union boxed dyadic systems into a low dimensional attractor. Data suggests that decisions and actions of agents in sports teams may be characterized as emergent, self-organizing properties, governed by laws of dynamical systems at the ecological scale. Further research needs to generalize this conceptual model of adaptive behavior in performance to other multiagent populations.

Verifying a Student Engagement, Success and Retention Maturity Model (SESR-MM): A reality check of the model using data derived from three universities

Australian higher education institutions (HEIs) have entered a new phase of regulation and accreditation which includes performance-based funding relating to the participation and retention of students from social and cultural groups previously underrepresented in higher education. However, in addressing these priorities, it is critical that HEIs do not further disadvantage students from certain groups by identifying them for attention because of their social or cultural backgrounds, circumstances which are largely beyond the control of students. In response, many HEIs are focusing effort on university-wide approaches to enhancing the student experience because such approaches will enhance the engagement, success and retention of all students, and in doing so, particularly benefit those students who come from underrepresented groups. Measuring and benchmarking student experiences and engagement that arise from these efforts is well supported by extensive collections of student experience survey data. However no comparable instrument exists that measures the capability of institutions to influence and/or enhance student experiences where capability is an indication of how well an organisational process does what it is designed to do (Rosemann & de Bruin, 2005). We have proposed that the concept of a maturity model (Marshall, 2010; Paulk, 1999) may be useful as a way of assessing the capability of HEIs to provide and implement student engagement, success and retention activities and we are currently articulating a Student Engagement, Success and Retention Maturity Model (SESR-MM), (Clarke, Nelson & Stoodley, 2012; Nelson, Clarke & Stoodley, 2012). Our research aims to address the current gap by facilitating the development of an SESR-MM instrument that aims (i) to enable institutions to assess the capability of their current student engagement and retention programs and strategies to influence and respond to student experiences within the institution; and (ii) to provide institutions with the opportunity to understand various practices across the sector with a view to further improving programs and practices relevant to their context. Our research extends the generational approach which has been useful in considering the evolutionary nature of the first year experience (FYE) (Wilson, 2009). Three generations have been identified and explored: First generation approaches that focus on co-curricular strategies (e.g. orientation and peer programs); Second generation approaches that focus on curriculum (e.g. pedagogy, curriculum design, and learning and teaching practice); and third generation approaches—also referred to as transition pedagogy—that focus on the production of an institution-wide integrated holistic intentional blend of curricular and co-curricular activities (Kift, Nelson & Clarke, 2010). Our research also moves beyond assessments of students’ experiences to focus on assessing institutional processes and their capability to influence student engagement. In essence, we propose to develop and use the maturity model concept to produce an instrument that will indicate the capability of HEIs to manage and improve student engagement, success and retention programs and strategies. The issues explored in this workshop are (i) whether the maturity model concept can be usefully applied to provide a measure of institutional capability for SESR; (ii) whether the SESR-MM can be used to assess the maturity of a particular set of institutional practices; and (iii) whether a collective assessment of an institution’s SESR capabilities can provide an indication of the maturity of the institution’s SESR activities. The workshop will be approached in three stages. Firstly, participants will be introduced to the key characteristics of maturity models, followed by a discussion of the SESR-MM and the processes involved in its development. Secondly, participants will be provided with resources to facilitate the development of a maturity model and an assessment instrument for a range of institutional processes and related practices. In the final stage of the workshop, participants will “assess” the capability of these practices to provide a collective assessment of the maturity of these processes. References Australian Council for Educational Research. (n.d.). Australasian Survey of Student Engagement. Retrieved from http://www.acer.edu.au/research/ausse/background Clarke, J., Nelson, K., & Stoodley, I. (2012, July). The Maturity Model concept as framework for assessing the capability of higher education institutions to address student engagement, success and retention: New horizon or false dawn? A Nuts & Bolts presentation at the 15th International Conference on the First Year in Higher Education, “New Horizons,” Brisbane, Australia. Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations. (n.d.). The University Experience Survey. Advancing quality in higher education information sheet. Retrieved from http://www.deewr.gov.au/HigherEducation/Policy/Documents/University_Experience_Survey.pdf Kift, S., Nelson, K., & Clarke, J. (2010) Transition pedagogy - a third generation approach to FYE: A case study of policy and practice for the higher education sector. The International Journal of the First Year in Higher Education, 1(1), pp. 1-20. Marshall, S. (2010). A quality framework for continuous improvement of e-Learning: The e-Learning Maturity Model. Journal of Distance Education, 24(1), 143-166. Nelson, K., Clarke, J., & Stoodley, I. (2012). An exploration of the Maturity Model concept as a vehicle for higher education institutions to assess their capability to address student engagement. A work in progress. Submitted for publication. Paulk, M. (1999). Using the Software CMM with good judgment, ASQ Software Quality Professional, 1(3), 19-29. Wilson, K. (2009, June–July). The impact of institutional, programmatic and personal interventions on an effective and sustainable first-year student experience. Keynote address presented at the 12th Pacific Rim First Year in Higher Education Conference, “Preparing for Tomorrow Today: The First Year as Foundation,” Townsville, Australia. Retrieved from http://www.fyhe.com.au/past_papers/papers09/ppts/Keithia_Wilson_paper.pdf

WebPut : Efficient web-based data imputation

In this paper, we present WebPut, a prototype system that adopts a novel web-based approach to the data imputation problem. Towards this, Webput utilizes the available information in an incomplete database in conjunction with the data consistency principle. Moreover, WebPut extends effective Information Extraction (IE) methods for the purpose of formulating web search queries that are capable of effectively retrieving missing values with high accuracy. WebPut employs a confidence-based scheme that efficiently leverages our suite of data imputation queries to automatically select the most effective imputation query for each missing value. A greedy iterative algorithm is also proposed to schedule the imputation order of the different missing values in a database, and in turn the issuing of their corresponding imputation queries, for improving the accuracy and efficiency of WebPut. Experiments based on several real-world data collections demonstrate that WebPut outperforms existing approaches.

A web-based approach to data imputation

In this paper, we present WebPut, a prototype system that adopts a novel web-based approach to the data imputation problem. Towards this, Webput utilizes the available information in an incomplete database in conjunction with the data consistency principle. Moreover, WebPut extends effective Information Extraction (IE) methods for the purpose of formulating web search queries that are capable of effectively retrieving missing values with high accuracy. WebPut employs a confidence-based scheme that efficiently leverages our suite of data imputation queries to automatically select the most effective imputation query for each missing value. A greedy iterative algorithm is proposed to schedule the imputation order of the different missing values in a database, and in turn the issuing of their corresponding imputation queries, for improving the accuracy and efficiency of WebPut. Moreover, several optimization techniques are also proposed to reduce the cost of estimating the confidence of imputation queries at both the tuple-level and the database-level. Experiments based on several real-world data collections demonstrate not only the effectiveness of WebPut compared to existing approaches, but also the efficiency of our proposed algorithms and optimization techniques.

missing data imputation: a fuzzy k-means clustering algorithm over sliding window

Tianjin University of Technology

Influence of Inter-Fiber Spacing and Interfacial Adhesion on Failure of Multi-Fiber Model Composites: Experiment and Numerical Analysis

The uniaxial tension experiments on glass-fiber-reinforced epoxy matrix composites reveal that the fragmentations of fibers display vertically aligned fracture, clustered fracture, coordinated fracture, and random fracture with the increase of inter-fiber spacing. The finite element analysis indicates that the fragmentations of fibers displaying different phenomena are due to the stress concentration as well as the inherent randomness of fiber defects, which is the dominant factor. The experimental results show that matrices adjacent to the fiber breakpoints all exhibit birefringent-whitening patterns for the composites with different interfacial adhesion strengths. The larger the extent of the interfacial debonding, the less the domain of the birefringent-whitening patterns. The numerical analysis indicates that the orientation of the matrix adjacent to a fiber breakpoint is caused by the interfacial shear stress, resulting in the birefringent-whitening patterns. The area of shear stress concentrations decides on the domain of the birefringent-whitening patterns.