Avaliação dos dados decendiais de precipitação e temperatura máxima e mínima do ar simulados pelo modelo ECMWF para o estado de São Paulo

The weather and climate has a direct influence in agriculture, it affects all stages of farming, since soil preparation to harvest. Meteorological data derived from automatic or conventional weather stations are used to monitor these effects. These meteorological data has problems like difficulty of data access and low density of meteorological stations in Brazil. Meteorological data from atmospheric models, such as ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) can be an alternative. Thus, the aim of this study was to compare 10-day period precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature data from the ECMWF model with interpolated maps from 33 weather stations in Sao Paulo state between 2005 and 2010 and generate statistical maps pixel by pixel. Statistical index showed spatially satisfactory (most of the results with R 2 > 0.60, d > 0.7, RMSE < 5°C and < 50 mm; Es < 5°C and < 24 mm) in period and ECMWF model can be recommended for use in the Sao Paulo state.

Generating vegetation-spectra as a basis for global monitoring of annual vegetation cycles using DOAS satellite observations

Vegetation-cycles are of general interest for many applications. Be it for harvest-predictions, global monitoring of climate-change or as input to atmospheric models.rnrnCommon Vegetation Indices use the fact that for vegetation the difference between Red and Near Infrared reflection is higher than in any other material on Earth’s surface. This gives a very high degree of confidence for vegetation-detection.rnrnThe spectrally resolving data from the GOME and SCIAMACHY satellite-instrumentsrnprovide the chance to analyse finer spectral features throughout the Red and Near Infrared spectrum using Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS). Although originally developed to retrieve information on atmospheric trace gases, we use it to gain information on vegetation. Another advantage is that this method automatically corrects for changes in the atmosphere. This renders the vegetation-information easily comparable over long time-spans.rnThe first results using previously available reference spectra were encouraging, but also indicated substantial limitations of the available reflectance spectra of vegetation. This was the motivation to create new and more suitable vegetation reference spectra within this thesis.rnThe set of reference spectra obtained is unique in its extent and also with respect to its spectral resolution and the quality of the spectral calibration. For the first time, this allowed a comprehensive investigation of the high-frequency spectral structures of vegetation reflectance and of their dependence on the viewing geometry.rnrnThe results indicate that high-frequency reflectance from vegetation is very complex and highly variable. While this is an interesting finding in itself, it also complicates the application of the obtained reference spectra to the spectral analysis of satellite observations.rnrnThe new set of vegetation reference spectra created in this thesis opens new perspectives for research. Besides refined satellite analyses, these spectra might also be used for applications on other platforms such as aircraft. First promising studies have been presented in this thesis, but the full potential for the remote sensing of vegetation from satellite (or aircraft) could bernfurther exploited in future studies.

Pasture degradation modifies the water and carbon cycles of the Tibetan highlands

The Tibetan Plateau has a significant role with regard to atmospheric circulation and the monsoon in particular. Changes between a closed plant cover and open bare soil are one of the striking effects of land use degradation observed with unsustainable range management or climate change, but experiments investigating changes of surface properties and processes together with atmospheric feedbacks are rare and have not been undertaken in the world's two largest alpine ecosystems, the alpine steppe and the Kobresia pygmaea pastures of the Tibetan Plateau. We connected measurements of micro-lysimeter, chamber, 13C labelling, and eddy covariance and combined the observations with land surface and atmospheric models, adapted to the highland conditions. This allowed us to analyse how three degradation stages affect the water and carbon cycle of pastures on the landscape scale within the core region of the Kobresia pygmaea ecosystem. The study revealed that increasing degradation of the Kobresia turf affects carbon allocation and strongly reduces the carbon uptake, compromising the function of Kobresia pastures as a carbon sink. Pasture degradation leads to a shift from transpiration to evaporation while a change in the sum of evapotranspiration over a longer period cannot be confirmed. The results show an earlier onset of convection and cloud generation, likely triggered by a shift in evapotranspiration timing when dominated by evaporation. Consequently, precipitation starts earlier and clouds decrease the incoming solar radiation. In summary, the changes in surface properties by pasture degradation found on the highland have a significant influence on larger scales.

The chemical composition of α cen A: Strong lines and the ABO theory of collisional line broadening

The mean abundances of Mg, Si, Ca, Ti, Cr, and Fe based on both strong and weak lines of alpha CenAare determined by matching the observed line profiles with those synthesised from stellar atmospheric models and comparing these results with a similar analysis for the Sun. There is good agreement between the abundances from strong and weak lines. Strong lines should generally be an excellent indicator of abundance and far easier to measure than the weak lines normally used. Until the development of the Anstee, Barklem, and O'Mara ( ABO) theory for collisional line broadening, the uncertainty in the value of the damping constant prevented strong lines being used for abundance determinations other than in close differential analyses. We found that alpha Cen A has a mean overabundance of 0.12 +/- 0.06 dex compared to solar mean abundances. This result agrees remarkably well with previous studies that did not use strong lines or the ABO theory for collisional line broadening. Our result supports the conclusion that reliable abundances can be derived from strong lines provided this new theory for line broadening is used to calculate the van derWaals damping.

Estimation of sea surface temperatures and salinity of ODP Site 177-1089 (Appendix A)

ODP Site 1089 is optimally located in order to monitor the occurrence of maxima in Agulhas heat and salt spillage from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean. Radiolarian-based paleotemperature transfer functions allowed to reconstruct the climatic history for the last 450 kyr at this location. A warm sea surface temperature anomaly during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 10 was recognized and traced to other oceanic records along the surface branch of the global thermohaline (THC) circulation system, and is particularly marked at locations where a strong interaction between oceanic and atmospheric overturning cells and fronts occurs. This anomaly is absent in the Vostok ice core deuterium, and in oceanic records from the Antarctic Zone. However, it is present in the deuterium excess record from the Vostok ice core, interpreted as reflecting the temperature at the moisture source site for the snow precipitated at Vostok Station. As atmospheric models predict a subtropical Indian source for such moisture, this provides the necessary teleconnection between East Antarctica and ODP Site 1089, as the subtropical Indian is also the source area of the Agulhas Current, the main climate agent at our study location. The presence of the MIS 10 anomaly in the delta13C foraminiferal records from the same core supports its connection to oceanic mechanisms, linking stronger Agulhas spillover intensity to increased productivity in the study area. We suggest, in analogy to modern oceanographic observations, this to be a consequence of a shallow nutricline, induced by eddy mixing and baroclinic tide generation, which are in turn connected to the flow geometry, and intensity, of the Agulhas Current as it flows past the Agulhas Bank. We interpret the intensified inflow of Agulhas Current to the South Atlantic as responding to the switch between lower and higher amplitude in the insolation forcing in the Agulhas Current source area. This would result in higher SSTs in the Cape Basin during the glacial MIS 10, due to the release into the South Atlantic of the heat previously accumulating in the subtropical and equatorial Indian and Pacific Ocean. If our explanation for the MIS 10 anomaly in terms of an insolation variability switch is correct, we might expect that a future Agulhas SSST anomaly event will further delay the onset of next glacial age. In fact, the insolation forcing conditions for the Holocene (the current interglacial) are very similar to those present during MIS 11 (the interglacial preceding MIS 10), as both periods are characterized by a low insolation variability for the Agulhas Current source area. Natural climatic variability will force the Earth system in the same direction as the anthropogenic global warming trend, and will thus lead to even warmer than expected global temperatures in the near future.

Ionization in atmospheres of brown dwarfs and extrasolar planets. V. Alfvén Ionization

Observations of continuous radio and sporadic X-ray emission from low-mass objects suggest they harbor localized plasmas in their atmospheric environments. For low-mass objects, the degree of thermal ionization is insufficient to qualify the ionized component as a plasma, posing the question: what ionization processes can efficiently produce the required plasma that is the source of the radiation? We propose Alfv´en ionization as a mechanism for producing localized pockets of ionized gas in the atmosphere, having sufficient degrees of ionization ( 10−7) that they constitute plasmas. We outline the criteria required for Alfv´en ionization and demonstrate its applicability in the atmospheres of low-mass objects such as giant gas planets, brown dwarfs, and M dwarfs with both solar and sub-solar metallicities. We find that Alfv´en ionization is most efficient at mid to low atmospheric pressures where a seed plasma is easier to magnetize and the pressure gradients needed to drive the required neutral flows are the smallest. For the model atmospheres considered, our results show that degrees of ionization of 10−6–1 can be obtained as a result of Alfv´en ionization. Observable consequences include continuum bremsstrahlung emission, superimposed with spectral lines from the plasma ion species (e.g., He, Mg, H2, or CO lines). Forbidden lines are also expected from the metastable population. The presence of an atmospheric plasma opens the door to a multitude of plasma and chemical processes not yet considered in current atmospheric models. The occurrence of Alfv´en ionization may also be applicable to other astrophysical environments such as protoplanetary disks.

How good are the simulations of tropical SST-rainfall relationship by IPCC AR4 atmospheric and coupled models?

The failure of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by prescribed SST to simulate and predict the interannual variability of Indian/Asian monsoon has been widely attributed to their inability to reproduce the actual sea surface temperature (SST)-rainfall relationship in the warm Indo-Pacific oceans. This assessment is based on a comparison of the observed and simulated correlation between the rainfall and local SST. However, the observed SSTconvection/rainfall relationship is nonlinear and for this a linear measure such as the correlation is not an appropriate measure. We show that the SST-rainfall relationship simulated by atmospheric and coupled general circulation models in IPCC AR4 is nonlinear, as observed, and realistic over the tropical West Pacific (WPO) and the Indian Ocean (IO). The SST-rainfall pattern simulated by the coupled versions of these models is rather similar to that from the corresponding atmospheric one, except for a shift of the entire pattern to colder/warmer SSTs when there is a cold/warm bias in the coupled version.

Examination of Relationships between Clear-Sky Longwave Radiation and Aspects of the Atmospheric Hydrological Cycle in Climate Models, Reanalyses, and Observations

Relationships between clear-sky longwave radiation and aspects of the atmospheric hydrological cycle are quantified in models, reanalyses, and observations over the period 1980-2000. The robust sensitivity of clear-sky surface net longwave radiation (SNLc) to column-integrated water vapor (CWV) of 1-1.5 Wm(-2) mm(-1) combined with the positive relationship between CWV and surface temperature (T-s) explains substantial increases in clear-sky longwave radiative cooling of the atmosphere (Q(LWc)) to the surface over the period. Clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation (OLRc) is highly sensitive to changes in aerosol and greenhouse gas concentrations in addition to temperature and humidity. Over tropical ocean regions of mean descent, Q(LWc) increases with T-s at similar to 3.5-5.5 W m(-2) K-1 for reanalyses, estimates derived from satellite data, and models without volcanic forcing included. Increased Q(LWc) with warming across the tropical oceans helps to explain model ensemble mean increases in precipitation of 0.1-0.15 mm day(-1) K-1, which are primarily determined by ascent regions where precipitation increases at the rate expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron equation. The implications for future projections in the atmospheric hydrological cycle are discussed

Diagnostic analysis of atmospheric moisture and clear-sky radiative feedback in the Hadley Centre and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate models

The interannual variability of the hydrological cycle is diagnosed from the Hadley Centre and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate models, both of which are forced by observed sea surface temperatures. The models produce a similar sensitivity of clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation to surface temperature of ∼2 W m−2 K−1, indicating a consistent and positive clear-sky radiative feedback. However, differences between changes in the temperature lapse-rate and the height dependence of moisture fluctuations suggest that contrasting mechanisms bring about this result. The GFDL model appears to give a weaker water vapor feedback (i.e., changes in specific humidity). This is counteracted by a smaller upper tropospheric temperature response to surface warming, which implies a compensating positive lapse-rate feedback.

Non-intrusive monitoring of atmospheric CO2 in analogue models of terrestrial carbon cycle

1. Closed Ecological Systems (CES) are small manmade ecosystems which do not have any material exchange with the surrounding environment. Recent ecological and technological advances enable successful establishment and maintenance of CES, making them a suitable tool for detecting and measuring subtle feedbacks and mechanisms. 2. As a part of an analogue (physical) C cycle modelling experiment, we developed a non-intrusive methodology to control the internal environment and to monitor atmospheric CO2 concentration inside 16 replicated CES. Whilst maintaining an air-tight seal of all CES, this approach allowed for access to the CO2 measuring equipment for periodic re-calibration and repairs. 3. To ensure reliable cross-comparison of CO2 observations between individual CES units and to minimise the cost of the system, only one CO2 sampling unit was used. An ADC BioScientific OP-2 (open-path) analyser mounted on a swinging arm was passing over a set of 16 measuring cells. Each cell was connected to an individual CES with air continuously circulating between them. 4. Using this setup, we were able to continuously measure several environmental variables and CO2 concentration within each closed system, allowing us to study minute effects of changing temperature on C fluxes within each CES. The CES and the measuring cells showed minimal air leakage during an experimental run lasting, on average, 3 months. The CO2 analyser assembly performed reliably for over 2 years, however an early iteration of the present design proved to be sensitive to positioning errors. 5. We indicate how the methodology can be further improved and suggest possible avenues where future CES based research could be applied.

Atmospheric blocking and mean biases in climate models

Models often underestimate blocking in the Atlantic and Pacific basins and this can lead to errors in both weather and climate predictions. Horizontal resolution is often cited as the main culprit for blocking errors due to poorly resolved small-scale variability, the upscale effects of which help to maintain blocks. Although these processes are important for blocking, the authors show that much of the blocking error diagnosed using common methods of analysis and current climate models is directly attributable to the climatological bias of the model. This explains a large proportion of diagnosed blocking error in models used in the recent Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change report. Furthermore, greatly improved statistics are obtained by diagnosing blocking using climate model data corrected to account for mean model biases. To the extent that mean biases may be corrected in low-resolution models, this suggests that such models may be able to generate greatly improved levels of atmospheric blocking.

Physically consistent responses of the global atmospheric hydrological cycle in models and observations

Robust and physically understandable responses of the global atmospheric water cycle to a warming climate are presented. By considering interannual responses to changes in surface temperature (T), observations and AMIP5 simulations agree on an increase in column integrated water vapor at the rate 7 %/K (in line with the Clausius­Clapeyron equation) and of precipitation at the rate 2-­3 %/K (in line with energetic constraints). Using simple and complex climate models, we demonstrate that radiative forcing by greenhouse gases is currently suppressing global precipitation (P) at ~ -0.15 %/decade. Along with natural variability, this can explain why observed trends in global P over the period 1988-2008 are close to zero. Regional responses in the global water cycle are strongly constrained by changes in moisture fluxes. Model simulations show an increased moisture flux into the tropical wet region at 900 hPa and an enhanced outflow (of smaller magnitude) at around 600 hPa with warming. Moisture transport explains an increase in P in the wet tropical regions and small or negative changes in the dry regions of the subtropics in CMIP5 simulations of a warming climate. For AMIP5 simulations and satellite observations, the heaviest 5-day rainfall totals increase in intensity at ~15 %/K over the ocean with reductions at all percentiles over land. The climate change response in CMIP5 simulations shows consistent increases in P over ocean and land for the highest intensities, close to the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of 7 %/K, while P declines for the lowest percentiles, indicating that interannual variability over land may not be a good proxy for climate change. The local changes in precipitation and its extremes are highly dependent upon small shifts in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and regional feedbacks.