A multi-model comparison of Atlantic multidecadal variability

A multi-model analysis of Atlantic multidecadal variability is performed with the following aims: to investigate the similarities to observations; to assess the strength and relative importance of the different elements of the mechanism proposed by Delworth et al. (J Clim 6:1993–2011, 1993) (hereafter D93) among coupled general circulation models (CGCMs); and to relate model differences to mean systematic error. The analysis is performed with long control simulations from ten CGCMs, with lengths ranging between 500 and 3600 years. In most models the variations of sea surface temperature (SST) averaged over North Atlantic show considerable power on multidecadal time scales, but with different periodicity. The SST variations are largest in the mid-latitude region, consistent with the short instrumental record. Despite large differences in model configurations, we find quite some consistency among the models in terms of processes. In eight of the ten models the mid-latitude SST variations are significantly correlated with fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), suggesting a link to northward heat transport changes. Consistent with this link, the three models with the weakest AMOC have the largest cold SST bias in the North Atlantic. There is no linear relationship on decadal timescales between AMOC and North Atlantic Oscillation in the models. Analysis of the key elements of the D93 mechanisms revealed the following: Most models present strong evidence that high-latitude winter mixing precede AMOC changes. However, the regions of wintertime convection differ among models. In most models salinity-induced density anomalies in the convective region tend to lead AMOC, while temperature-induced density anomalies lead AMOC only in one model. However, analysis shows that salinity may play an overly important role in most models, because of cold temperature biases in their relevant convective regions. In most models subpolar gyre variations tend to lead AMOC changes, and this relation is strong in more than half of the models.

Reconstructing the subsurface ocean decadal variability using surface nudging in a perfect model framework

Initialising the ocean internal variability for decadal predictability studies is a new area of research and a variety of ad hoc methods are currently proposed. In this study, we explore how nudging with sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) can reconstruct the threedimensional variability of the ocean in a perfect model framework. This approach builds on the hypothesis that oceanic processes themselves will transport the surface information into the ocean interior as seen in ocean-only simulations. Five nudged simulations are designed to reconstruct a 150 years ‘‘target’’ simulation, defined as a portion of a long control simulation. The nudged simulations differ by the variables restored to, SST or SST + SSS, and by the area where the nudging is applied. The strength of the heat flux feedback is diagnosed from observations and the restoring coefficients for SSS use the same time-scale. We observed that this choice prevents spurious convection at high latitudes and near sea-ice border when nudging both SST and SSS. In the tropics, nudging the SST is enough to reconstruct the tropical atmosphere circulation and the associated dynamical and thermodynamical impacts on the underlying ocean. In the tropical Pacific Ocean, the profiles for temperature show a significant correlation from the surface down to 2,000 m, due to dynamical adjustment of the isopycnals. At mid-tohigh latitudes, SSS nudging is required to reconstruct both the temperature and the salinity below the seasonal thermocline. This is particularly true in the North Atlantic where adding SSS nudging enables to reconstruct the deep convection regions of the target. By initiating a previously documented 20-year cycle of the model, the SST + SSS nudging is also able to reproduce most of the AMOC variations, a key source of decadal predictability. Reconstruction at depth does not significantly improve with amount of time spent nudging and the efficiency of the surface nudging rather depends on the period/events considered. The joint SST + SSS nudging applied verywhere is the most efficient approach. It ensures that the right water masses are formed at the right surface density, the subsequent circulation, subduction and deep convection further transporting them at depth. The results of this study underline the potential key role of SSS for decadal predictability and further make the case for sustained largescale observations of this field.

Influence of the Central American Seaway and Drake Passage on ocean circulation and neodymium isotopes: A model study

The sensitivity of the neodymium isotopic composition (ϵNd) to tectonic rearrangements of seaways is investigated using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. The shoaling and closure of the Central American Seaway (CAS) is simulated, as well as the opening and deepening of Drake Passage (DP). Multiple series of equilibrium simulations with various intermediate depths are performed for both seaways, providing insight into ϵNd and circulation responses to progressive throughflow evolutions. Furthermore, the sensitivity of these responses to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the neodymium boundary source is examined. Modeled ϵNd changes are compared to sediment core and ferromanganese (Fe-Mn) crust data. The model results indicate that the North Atlantic ϵNd response to the CAS shoaling is highly dependent on the AMOC state, i.e., on the AMOC strength before the shoaling to shallow depths (preclosure). Three scenarios based on different AMOC forcings are discussed, of which the model-data agreement favors a shallow preclosure (Miocene) AMOC (∼6 Sv). The DP opening causes a rather complex circulation response, resulting in an initial South Atlantic ϵNd decrease preceding a larger increase. This feature may be specific to our model setup, which induces a vigorous CAS throughflow that is strongly anticorrelated to the DP throughflow. In freshwater experiments following the DP deepening, ODP Site 1090 is mainly influenced by AMOC and DP throughflow changes, while ODP Site 689 is more strongly influenced by Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation and CAS throughflow changes. The boundary source uncertainty is largest for shallow seaways and at shallow sites.

On the reduced sensitivity of the Atlantic overturning to Greenland ice sheet melting in projections: a multi-model assessment

Large uncertainties exist concerning the impact of Greenland ice sheet melting on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in the future, partly due to different sensitivity of the AMOC to freshwater input in the North Atlantic among climate models. Here we analyse five projections from different coupled ocean–atmosphere models with an additional 0.1 Sv (1 Sv = 10 6 m3/s) of freshwater released around Greenland between 2050 and 2089. We find on average a further weakening of the AMOC at 26°N of 1.1 ± 0.6 Sv representing a 27 ± 14% supplementary weakening in 2080–2089, as compared to the weakening relative to 2006–2015 due to the effect of the external forcing only. This weakening is lower than what has been found with the same ensemble of models in an identical experimen - tal set-up but under recent historical climate conditions. This lower sensitivity in a warmer world is explained by two main factors. First, a tendency of decoupling is detected between the surface and the deep ocean caused by an increased thermal stratification in the North Atlantic under the effect of global warming. This induces a shoaling of ocean deep ventilation through convection hence ventilating only intermediate levels. The second important effect concerns the so-called Canary Current freshwater leakage; a process by which additionally released fresh water in the North Atlantic leaks along the Canary Current and escapes the convection zones towards the subtropical area. This leakage is increasing in a warming climate, which is a consequence of decreasing gyres asymmetry due to changes in Ekman rumping. We suggest that these modifications are related with the northward shift of the jet stream in a warmer world. For these two reasons the AMOC is less susceptible to freshwater perturbations (near the deep water formation sides) in the North Atlantic as compared to the recent historical climate conditions. Finally, we propose a bilinear model that accounts for the two former processes to give a conceptual explanation about the decreasing AMOC sensitivity due to freshwater input. Within the limit of this bilinear model, we find that 62 ± 8% of the reduction in sensitivity is related with the changes in gyre asymmetry and freshwater leakage and 38 ± 8% is due to the reduction in deep ocean ventilation associated with the increased stratification in the North Atlantic.

Reconciling two alternative mechanisms behind bi-decadal variability in the North Atlantic

Understanding the preferential timescales of variability in the North Atlantic, usually associated with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), is essential for the prospects for decadal prediction. However, the wide variety of mechanisms proposed from the analysis of climate simulations, potentially dependent on the models themselves, has stimulated the debate of which processes take place in reality. One mechanism receiving increasing attention, identified both in idealized models and observations, is a westward propagation of subsurface buoyancy anomalies that impact the AMOC through a basin-scale intensification of the zonal density gradient, enhancing the northward transport via thermal wind balance. In this study, we revisit a control simulation from the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model 5A (IPSL-CM5A), characterized by a strong AMOC periodicity at 20 years, previously explained by an upper ocean–atmosphere–sea ice coupled mode driving convection activity south of Iceland. Our study shows that this mechanism interacts constructively with the basin-wide propagation in the subsurface. This constructive feedback may explain why bi-decadal variability is so intense in this coupled model as compared to others.

Deep water provenance and dynamics of the (de)glacial Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Reconstructing past modes of ocean circulation is an essential task in paleoclimatology and paleoceanography. To this end, we combine two sedimentary proxies, Nd isotopes (εNd) and the 231Pa/230Th ratio, both of which are not directly involved in the global carbon cycle, but allow the reconstruction of water mass provenance and provide information about the past strength of overturning circulation, respectively. In this study, combined 231Pa/230Th and εNd down-core profiles from six Atlantic Ocean sediment cores are presented. The data set is complemented by the two available combined data sets from the literature. From this we derive a comprehensive picture of spatial and temporal patterns and the dynamic changes of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation over the past ∼25 ka. Our results provide evidence for a consistent pattern of glacial/stadial advances of Southern Sourced Water along with a northward circulation mode for all cores in the deeper (>3000 m) Atlantic. Results from shallower core sites support an active overturning cell of shoaled Northern Sourced Water during the LGM and the subsequent deglaciation. Furthermore, we report evidence for a short-lived period of intensified AMOC in the early Holocene.

Model results of ocean physical field of the reference state and the targets in NetCDF format

In a feasibility study, the potential of proxy data for the temperature and salinity during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, about 19 000 to 23 000 years before present) in constraining the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) with a general ocean circulation model was explored. The proxy data were simulated by drawing data from four different model simulations at the ocean sediment core locations of the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean surface (MARGO) project, and perturbing these data with realistic noise estimates. The results suggest that our method has the potential to provide estimates of the past strength of the AMOC even from sparse data, but in general, paleo-sea-surface temperature data without additional prior knowledge about the ocean state during the LGM is not adequate to constrain the model. On the one hand, additional data in the deep-ocean and salinity data are shown to be highly important in estimating the LGM circulation. On the other hand, increasing the amount of surface data alone does not appear to be enough for better estimates. Finally, better initial guesses to start the state estimation procedure would greatly improve the performance of the method. Indeed, with a sufficiently good first guess, just the sea-surface temperature data from the MARGO project promise to be sufficient for reliable estimates of the strength of the AMOC.

Seismic multichannel reflection profiles from the Gulf of Cadiz, IODP Expedition 339

Sediments cored along the southwestern Iberian margin during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 339 provide constraints on Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) circulation patterns from the Pliocene epoch to the present day. After the Strait of Gibraltar opened (5.33 million years ago), a limited volume of MOW entered the Atlantic. Depositional hiatuses indicate erosion by bottom currents related to higher volumes of MOW circulating into the North Atlantic, beginning in the late Pliocene. The hiatuses coincide with regional tectonic events and changes in global thermohaline circulation (THC). This suggests that MOW influenced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), THC, and climatic shifts by contributing a component of warm, saline water to northern latitudes while in turn being influenced by plate tectonics.

Reconstruction of the provenance and distribution of terrigenous sediments off NE South America over the last 30ka

We investigate the redistribution of terrigenous materials in the northeastern (NE) South American continental margin during slowdown events of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The compilation of stratigraphic data from 108 marine sediment cores collected across the western tropical Atlantic shows an extreme rise in sedimentation rates off the Parnaíba River mouth (about 2°S) during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1, 18-15 ka). Sediment core GeoB16206-1, raised offshore the Parnaíba River mouth, documents relatively constant 143Nd/144Nd values (expressed as epsilonNd(0)) throughout the last 30 ka. Whereas the homogeneous epsilonNd(0) data support the input of fluvial sediments by the Parnaíba River from the same source area directly onshore, the increases in Fe/Ca, Al/Si and Rb/Sr during HS1 indicate a marked intensification of fluvial erosion in the Parnaíba River drainage basin. In contrast, the epsilonNd(0) values from sediment core GeoB16224-1 collected off French Guiana (about 7°N) suggest Amazon-sourced materials within the last 30 ka. We attribute the extremely high volume of terrigenous sediments deposited offshore the Parnaíba River mouth during HS1 to (i) an enhanced precipitation in the catchment region and (ii) a reduced North Brazil Current, which are both associated with a weakened AMOC.

Dinoflagellate cyst assemblages, Mg/Ca based reconstructed temperatures, stable carbon isotopes, and geochemical parameters of sediment core GeoB9508-5

In order to investigate a possible connection between tropical northeast (NE) Atlantic primary productivity, Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and drought in the Sahel region during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), we used dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) assemblages, Mg/Ca based reconstructed temperatures, stable carbon isotopes (d13C) and geochemical parameters of a marine sediment core (GeoB 9508-5) from the continental slope offshore Senegal. Our results show a two-phase productivity pattern within HS1 that progressed from an interval of low marine productivity between ~ 19 and 16 kyr BP to a phase with an abrupt and large productivity increase from ~ 16 to 15 kyr BP. The second phase is characterized by distinct heavy planktonic d13C values and high concentrations of heterotrophic dinocysts in addition to a significant cooling signal based on reconstructions of past sea surface temperatures (SST). We conclude that productivity variations within HS1 can be attributed to a substantial shift of West African atmospheric processes. Taken together our results indicate a significant intensification of the North East (NE) trade winds over West Africa leading to more intense upwelling during the last millennium of HS1 between ~ 16 and 15 kyr BP, thus leaving a strong imprint on the dinocyst assemblages and sea surface conditions. Therefore, the two-phase productivity pattern indicates a complex hydrographic setting suggesting that HS1 cannot be regarded as uniform as previously thought.

Sea surface temperature estimation for the last 70 ka from IODP Site 306-U1313

During the six Heinrich Events of the last 70 ka episodic calving from the circum-Atlantic ice sheets released large numbers of icebergs into the North Atlantic. These icebergs and associated melt-water flux are hypothesized to have led to a shutdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and severe cooling in large parts of the Northern Hemisphere. However, due to the limited availability of high-resolution records the magnitude sea surface temperature (SST) changes related to the impact of Heinrich Events on the mid-latitude North Atlantic is poorly constrained. Here we present a record of UK37'-based SSTs derived from sediments of Integrated Ocean Drilling Project (IODP) Site U1313, located at the southern end of the ice-rafted debris (IRD)-belt in the mid-latitude North Atlantic (41°N). We demonstrate that all six Heinrich Events are associated with a rapid warming of surface waters by 2 to 4°C in a few thousand years. The presence of IRD leaves no doubt about the simultaneous timing and correlation between rapid surface water warming and Heinrich Events. We argue that this warming in the mid-latitude North Atlantic is related to a northward expansion of the subtropical gyre during Heinrich Events. As a wide-range of studies demonstrated that in the central IRD-belt Heinrich Events are associated with low SSTs, these results thus identify an anti-phased (seesaw) pattern in SSTs during Heinrich Events between the mid-latitude (warm) and northern North Atlantic (cold). This highlights the complex response of surface water characteristics in the North Atlantic to Heinrich Events that is poorly reproduced by fresh water hosing experiments and challenges the widely accepted view that within the IRD-belt of the North Atlantic Heinrich Events coincide with periods of low SSTs.

Down-core sedimentary Sr-Nd isotope records from two Cape Basin sediment cores in the South Atlantic: GeoB3603-2 (Meteor cruise M34/1) and MD02-2594 (Marion Dufresne cruise MD128)

We report down-core sedimentary Nd isotope (epsilon Nd) records from two South Atlantic sediment cores, MD02-2594 and GeoB3603-2, located on the western South African continental margin. The core sites are positioned downstream of the present-day flow path of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and close to the Southern Ocean, which makes them suitable for reconstructing past variability in NADW circulation over the last glacial cycle. The Fe-Mn leachates epsilon Nd records show a coherent decreasing trend from glacial radiogenic values towards less radiogenic values during the Holocene. This trend is confirmed by epsilon Nd in fish debris and mixed planktonic foraminifera, albeit with an offset during the Holocene to lower values relative to the leachates, matching the present-day composition of NADW in the Cape Basin. We interpret the epsilon Nd changes as reflecting the glacial shoaling of Southern Ocean waters to shallower depths combined with the admixing of southward flowing Northern Component Water (NCW). A compilation of Atlantic epsilon Nd records reveals increasing radiogenic isotope signatures towards the south and with increasing depth. This signal is most prominent during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and of similar amplitude across the Atlantic basin, suggesting continuous deep water production in the North Atlantic and export to the South Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. The amplitude of the epsilon Nd change from the LGM to Holocene is largest in the southernmost cores, implying a greater sensitivity to the deglacial strengthening of NADW at these sites. This signal impacted most prominently the South Atlantic deep and bottom water layers that were particularly deprived of NCW during the LGM. The epsilon Nd variations correlate with changes in 231Pa/230Th ratios and benthic d13C across the deglacial transition. Together with the contrasting 231Pa/230Th: epsilon Nd pattern of the North and South Atlantic, this indicates a progressive reorganization of the AMOC to full strength during the Holocene.

Mid-Pleistocene (800-400 ka) records of benthic and planktic foraminfer d18O and d13C, planktic foraminifer based SST, and IRD of IODP Site 306-U1314

Stable carbon and oxygen isotopes from benthic and planktic foraminifers, planktic foraminifer assemblages and ice rafted debris from the North Atlantic Site U1314 (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 306) were examined to investigate orbital and millennial-scale climate variability in the North Atlantic and its impact on global circulation focusing on the development of glacial periods during the mid-Pleistocene (ca 800-400 ka). Glacial initiations were characterized by a rapid cooling (6-10 °C in less than 7 kyr) in the mean annual sea surface temperature (SST), increasing benthic d18O values and high benthic d13C values. The continuous increase in benthic d18O suggests a continuous ice sheet growth whereas the positive benthic d13C values indicate that the flow of the Iceland Scotland Overflow water (ISOW) was vigorous. Strong deep water formation in the Norwegian Greenland Sea promoted a high transfer of freshwater from the ocean to the continents. However, low SSTs at Site U1314 suggest a subpolar gyre cooling and freshening that may have reduced deep water formation in the Labrador Sea during glacial initiations. Once the 3.5 per mil threshold in the benthic d18O record was exceeded, ice rafting started and ice sheet growth was punctuated by millennial-scale waning events which returned to the ocean part of the freshwater accumulated on the continents. Ice-rafting events were associated with a rapid reduction in the ISOW (benthic d13C values dropped 0.5-1 per mil) and followed by millennial-scale warmings. The first two millennial-scale warm intervals of each glacial period reached interglacial temperatures and were particularly abrupt (6-10 °C in ~3 kyr). Subsequent millennial-scale warm events were cooler probably because the AMOC was rather reduced as suggested by the low benthic d13C values. These two abrupt warming events that occurred at early glacial periods were also observed in the Antarctic temperature and CO2 records, suggesting a close correlation between both Hemispheres. The comparison of the sea surface proxies with the benthic d18O record (as the Southern sign) indicates the presence of a millennial-scale seesaw pattern similar to that seen during the Last Glacial period.

Planktonic foraminifera Mg/Ca paleotemperatures and oxygen isotopes of ODP Hole 175-1075C

High resolution planktonic foraminifera Mg/Ca paleotemperatures and oxygen isotopes of seawater of Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1078 (off Angola) have been reconstructed and reveal insights into the seasonal thermal evolution of the Angola Current (AC), the Angola-Benguela Front (ABF), and the Benguela Current (BC) during the last glacial (50-23.5 ka BP). Special emphasis is put on time intervals possibly associated with the North Atlantic Heinrich Stadials (HS), which are thought to lead to an accumulation of heat in the South Atlantic due to a reduction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Within dating uncertainties, Globigerinoides ruber (pink) Mg/Ca-based sea surface temperature (SST) estimates that represent southern hemisphere summer surface conditions show several warming episodes that coincide with North Atlantic HS, thus supporting the concept of the bipolar thermal seesaw. In contrast, the Mg/Ca-based temperatures of Globigerina bulloides, representing the SST of the ABF/BC system during southern hemisphere winter, show no obvious response to the North Atlantic HS in the study area. We suggest that surface water cooling during the winter season is due to enhanced upwelling or upwelling of colder water masses which has most likely mitigated a warming of the ABF/BC system during HS. We further speculate that the seasonal asymmetry in our SST record results from seasonal differences in the dominance of atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections during periods of northern high latitude cooling.

Variability of the Brazil Current during the late Holocene analysed on two marine sediment cores

Our understanding of the centennial-scale variability of the Brazil Current (BC) during the late Holocene is elusive because of the lack of appropriate records. Here we used the Mg/Ca and oxygen isotopic composition of planktonic foraminifera from two marine sediment cores collected at 27° S and 33° S off southeastern South America to assess the late Holocene variability in the upper water column of the BC. Our results show in phase fluctuations of up to 3 °C in sea surface temperatures (SST), and 0.8 per mil in oxygen isotopic composition of surface sea water, a proxy for relative sea surface salinity (SSS). Time-series analyses of our records indicate a cyclicity with a period of ca. 730 yr. We suggest that the observed cyclicity reflects variability in the strength of the BC associated to changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Positive (negative) SST and SSS anomalies are related to a strong (weak) BC and a weak (strong) AMOC. Moreover, periods of peak strength in the BC occur synchronously to a weak North Brazil Current, negative SST anomalies in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic, and positive (negative) precipitation anomalies over southeastern South America (equatorial Africa), further corroborating our hypothesis. This study shows a tight coupling between the variability of the BC and the high latitudes of the North Atlantic mediated by the AMOC even under late Holocene boundary conditions.